2024 NFL Regular Season GW4

The Giants just about managed to cover the 5.5 point spread for us against the Cowboys on TNF. Our unders prop bet was narrowly foiled so we ended up going 1-1 for the night. Jan Keys is back with more bets this weekend. Check out Jan’s 2024 NFL Regular Season GW4 preview and picks below.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-1) @ ATLANTA FALCONS (1-2)

Vegas Line: Atlanta -1; Total Points 41.5

My Rating: Atlanta -1.5; Total Points 43.4

Atlanta have improved over the last 2 matches with close encounters against Philadelphia and Kansas City.

New Orleans were brilliant in their first 2 matches but although only lost by a field goal last week, the match stats show it could and should have been a bigger loss.

Tough call here and I expect another close match. No bet.

NO SELECTION

LA RAMS (1-2) @ CHICAGO BEARS (1-2)

Vegas Line: Chicago -3; Total Points 40.5

My Ratings: Chicago -3; Total Points 45.5

Chicago QB Caleb Williams has finally found his feet after struggling in his first 2 matches. However, Chicago still have a poor running game and that won’t be much help to the rookie QB.

The LA Rams finally got off the mark with a win over the 49ers last week, although the stats favoured the 49ers. Both these sides were expected to be better this season and I’m sure both will improve. My stats have the total points 5 higher than the line and I believe the weather will be fine.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW4 Tip: OVER 40.5 POINTS @ 1.91

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (3-0) @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (2-1)

Vegas Line: Green Bay -2.; Total Points 43.5

My Ratings: Green Bay -6; Total Points 42.8

Green Bay have QB Jordan Love back in training and he may be involved. The Packers’ back-up QB Malik Willis (2-0) has played well in his place. I think Green Bay will have a good season but this will be a hard match up.

Minnesota have overachieved so far being unbeaten this season. They have taken two big scalps in the 49ers and Houston. This is another big game but so far, the Vikings haven’t done much wrong. This could go either way and I am happy to leave it alone. No bet.

NO SELECTION

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (3-0) @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (1-2)

Vegas Line: Pittsburgh -1.5; Total Points 39.5

My Ratings: Pittsburgh -0.5; Total Points 40.3

The Colts finally got off the mark last week, beating Chicago at home. They have had a tricky start to the season but I doubt their expectations are very high.

Pittsburgh are another unbeaten team. They have had a 3 low scoring match wins and are narrow favourites for this match.

This will probably be another low scoring match that could go either way and it makes no appeal as a betting heat.

NO SELECTION

DENVER BRONCOS (1-2) @ NEW YORK JETS (2-1)

Vegas Line: NY Jets -7.5; Total Points 38.5

My Ratings: NY Jets -9.5; Total Points 40.9

The New York Jets made light work of New England last week with a 24-3 win and are finally showing the potential that has been expected of them since the start of last season. This is another match up that they should win but 7.5 is a horrible number to bet a favourite so I will let this one pass.

The Broncos had an unlikely but much deserved victory last weekend against Tampa Bay. They were 6.5 dogs and won 26-7. They continue to surprise the pundits who have them ranked quite low. This will be another challenge from them here and I am happy to just watch this game.

NO SELECTION

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2-1) @ TAMPA BAY BUCANEERS (2-1)

Vegas Line: Philadelphia -2.5; Total Points 44.5

My Ratings: Philadelphia -3.5; Total Points 43.9

Tampa Bay lost their 100% unbeaten record when losing as the 6.5 point favourites at home to Denver. The week before they beat the highly impressive Detroit away. Football can sure turn up a few shocks! I’m not a big fan of the Buccs as their yardage stats aren’t as impressive as their results. For me, the Eagles are a much better team.

Philadelphia have much better offensive yardage figures than today’s opponents and this will continue. The worry for the Eagles coming into this match is the loss of their WR Devonta Smith to concussion protocols. This, along with losing A.J. Brown in Week One, leaves them a bit short in the WR department. The talented Dallas Goedert will shoulder most of the receiving duties this week.

The Eagles will probably win but with those two missing WRs, I’ll leave this one alone too.

NO SELECTION

CINCINNATI BENGALS (0-3) @ CAROLINA PANTHERS (1-2)

Vegas Line: Cincinnati -4; Total Points 46.5

My Line: Cincinnati -5.5; Total Points 47.8 

Before last weekend I thought the Panthers would be lucky to win a game all season they were that bad. Then, they drop their Number One QB and bring in veteran QB Andy Dalton and they win in Vegas 36-22. Andy Dalton unsurprisingly keeps his place at QB for this matchup. This weekend is a wait and see if Carolina can prove that this is a turning point. I’m not so sure.

The Cincinnati Bengals come into this match with an 0-3 record, they have lost at home when big favourites to New England and Washington, who are both considered to be far inferior teams. If the Bengals lose this one then it is probably season over for them after such an easy run of fixtures.

NO SELECTION

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (0-3) @ HOUSTON TEXANS (2-1)

Vegas Line: Houston -5.5; Total Points 46

My Line: Houston -7.5; Total Points 44.9

There was a lot of optimism regarding Houston’s prospects this season and there were thoughts of a conference final amongst their hopeful followers. However, last weekend they were brought back down to earth with a bang by Minnesota, losing 34-7. The Vegas line has now moved from -7 to -5.5…Houston do we have a problem?

Although Jacksonville had a match to forget on Monday night at Buffalo and were terrible, their other two defeats could’ve gone either way. The Jaguars have a few teams below them in the pecking order and really aren’t as bad as an 0-3 team. Having said that, they may have their work cut out against a good Houston team.

NO SELECTION

WASHINGTON (2-1) @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (1-2)

Vegas Line: Arizona -3.5; Total Points 50

My Ratings: Arizona -6.5; Total Points 48.6  

Arizona have had a tough run of fixtures and this will be a rare easier fixture for them. Although they lost 2 of their first 3 matches, there are signs there that this isn’t a bad side. I don’t really like -3.5 as a number but I feel the Cards are a much stronger team.

Washington’s fixtures have been slightly easier but you still have to win the matches. It was a nice and unlikely win last week in Cincinnati and the team will be feeling full of confidence coming into this match up. This should be a high scoring match which will hopefully nullify me tipping a side on the wrong side of 3.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW4 Tip: ARIZONA -3.5 @ 2.00

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (1-2) @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (1-2)

Vegas Line: San Francisco -10.5; Total Points 41

My Ratings: San Francisco -13; Total Points 45.7

The 49ers are coming off 2 road defeats on the trot and I’m sure they will stop the rot here. They started the new season off well with a good win at home to the Jets, but then lost tricky away fixtures against Minnesota and the LA Rams. Of course, they will win here and get their season back on track. I favour them to cover the line, but not enough to play.

New England are a poor team but started the season with a shock 16-10 win in Cincinnati when 9 point dogs. They just got touched off in Seattle before being hammered by the NY Jets. I think they will try to keep the score down here without much ambition.

NO SELECTION

CLEVELAND BROWNS (1-2) @ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (1-2)

Vegas Line: Las Vegas -2; Total Points 37.5

My Ratings: Level Match; Total Points 43.7

I’m not sure how Las Vegas could go to Baltimore and win, then come home and lose to Carolina. There is absolutely no logic in these two results. I don’t think I can assume anything from this Raiders team so for the moment, I will withhold judgement.

Cleveland have lost all 3 matches on yardage which doesn’t bode too well if you’re looking to win matches. They have underachieved so far this season and will need to improve.

Tough match to call, the stats suggest over 37.5 points holds a bit of value but I am happy to sit this one out.

NO SELECTION

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (3-0)  @  LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (2-1) 

Vegas Line: Kansas City -7.5; Total Points 39.5 

My Ratings: Kansas City -2.5; Total Points 40.3

The LA Chargers come into this match with a few key injuries. QB Justin Herbert is not fully fit with a high ankle sprain they also have both starting tackles questionable for this match. The Chargers lost 20-10 to Pittsburgh last week after two soft game wins. This match is a step up in grade.

Kansas City come into this match up with 3 wins from 3 and the Superbowl Champions are still in second gear. All 3 wins could’ve gone either way but the Chiefs know how to get over the line. With the Chargers’ injuries this should be another win for the Chiefs, but I’m not sure if they will cover a high 7.5 line.

NO SELECTION

BUFFALO BILLS (3-0) @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (1-2)

Vegas Line: Baltimore -2.5; Total Points 46

My Line: Level Match; Total Points 49.5

The match of the weekend sees my Superbowl Tip Baltimore take on the AFC team of the moment, the Buffalo Bills. The Ravens are 1-1 on tough matches but somehow lost at home to Las Vegas when 9.5 point favourites. I believe the Ravens will win every week but that may be a bit biased.

The Buffalo Bills are not only 3-0, but they have performed well in all 3 matches. This is a step up in class and will test the Bills to their limits. On form, the Bills can win but I’m still sticking with the Ravens being the best team in the League.

NO SELECTION

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

TENNESSEE TITANS (0-3) @ MIAMI DOLPHINS(1-2)

Vegas Line: Miami -1; Total Points 36.5

My Line: Tennessee -2.5; Total Points 37.2

The Miami Dolphins will be without QB Tua Tagovailoa  for the second week running and to make matters worse, back-up QB Skylar Thompson is also out. Miami will leave it late to choose between their No 3 or No 4 QB. Without Tagovailoa, Miami struggled last week scoring only 3 points against Seattle. This isn’t good news for the Dolphins.

The Tennessee Titans are 0-3 and have been poor this season. 24-17 defeats in their first 2 matches at Chicago and vs the NY Jets are the standard the Titans are at. Last week they got hammered 30-14 by Green Bay who also were playing a second string QB.

I know the Titans are a poor side but they must be confident about beating a Miami team with a 3rd or 4th string Quarterback.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW4 Tip: TENNESSEE +1 @ 1.77

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (3-0) @ DETROIT LIONS (2-1) 

Vegas Line: Detroit -3.5; Total Points 45.5

My Line: Detroit -7; Total Points 44.0

The Detroit Lions are a top team this season with 2 good wins over LA Rams and at Arizona. Their only defeat came at home to Tampa Bay. They somehow lost 20-16, but the yardage was 463-216 in Detroit’s favour.

I believe Seattle’s results flatter to deceive. Beating Denver 26-20 and New England 23-20 are just run of the mill victories. Last week they smashed Miami 24-3 but the Dolphins had their second string QB who was sacked 5 times before going off injured.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW4 Tip: DETROIT -3.5 @ 1.95

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-JanKeys