2024 World Grand Prix Betting Preview – JP
2024 World Grand Prix Betting Preview
We are into the meat of the season and we now have the 2024 World Grand Prix of Darts. Seven nights of darts from the Mattioli Arena in Leicester, England.
This is the famous ‘double in, double out’ format and the only other sets based scoring system outside of the World Championship.
The field is comprised of 32 players. The top 16 on the PDC OOM, and the top 16 from the Pro Tour OOM as of the 30th of September, not already qualified.
The first round games are best of three sets, short and sweet, the second round and quarter finals best of five, semi-finals best of nine and the final best of eleven sets.
Up until 2020 this was played in Dublin, ‘double in, in Dublin’, but now, like all the other ranking Majors, it is played in England, which in this day and age of international darts is unsatisfactory.
Last Ten Years
The last ten years of this event has seen Michael van Gerwen win five, the last in 2022. The other winners have been Robert Thornton, Daryl Gurney, Gerwyn Price, Jonny Clayton and Luke Humphries, who is the defending champion. Gerwyn Price has also had two runner up spots and a losing semi-final to go with his win, all in the last four years.
The double in format obviously places more emphasis on hitting doubles, but it is how a player copes when he misses three darts to get into the leg that is the important bit. Not panicking is key. Everyone is going to have sticky moments, but when panic sets in, the game can get away quite quickly, especially in the first round.
It is important to be flexible and to be prepared. Having at least two ‘favourite doubles’ is important, a plan B if you like. Apart from that, it is a darts tournament. Hitting 180s and big checkouts are just as a valuable as in any other event. It is the only tournament on the calendar with this format, so having experience of it is a plus.
2024 World Grand Prix: PDC OOM Qualifiers
Tournament form, most recent on the right
1 Luke Humphries – 2/1/W
Cool Hand’s recent form has been a real mixed bag. Since winning the World Matchplay in July, his form in ranking events was one of frustration, losing four quarter finals and one semi-final. He looked like there was a bit of a mental block building up.
However, right on cue, Humphries won PC26 last Thursday. He required deciding legs in the quarter, semi and final to win, and it was more a display of grit than pure class. But it was a win, a confidence building win. Just before another Major Championship. Good timing.
The Grand Prix is where things really took off for Humphries. He had been knocking on doors, but including this title last year his record in ranking Majors reads W/QF/W/W/W/RU/W. Phenomenally good. He is the archetypal, big match player.
A week ago, I would have been quite dismissive of his chances, but after another ranking title, he has teed it up nicely. Has to be in with a great chance of making his first defence of a Major title.
2 Michael Smith – 1/-/1/2/1/1/1/2/1/1/1/SF
Bully Boy’s tournament record was dreadful up to 2023 when he made the semi-final. Just two match wins from ten appearances made Smith very easy to oppose in the first round, and often at good odds. Will that be the case once more, or will that good run last year change his mindset coming into this year’s event?
His recent form sees just five wins from his last ten matches, but he is playing better than that sounds. He has gone 17 matches with healthy 90+ averages, but he is still losing too many matches. He may be guilty of letting his head drop a bit too quickly, a problem which held him back for years.
Smith had a great 2022 season, four ranking Major finals, winning one and he started 2023 by winning the World Championship. He had finally arrived at the very top. Since then? A bit disappointing really. Just two ranking semi-finals. He decided to enjoy his success by taking holidays and moving house, spending his winnings. His game has suffered and getting it back is proving to be hard.
Confidence is king in sport, and I don’t think Smith is feeling particularly confident ahead of the 2024 World Grand Prix.
3 Michael van Gerwen – 1/-/-/W/QF/W/RU/W/1/W/W/QF/1/W/2
First thing to say is that MVG has a fantastic tournament record. The format holds no fear for him. Six times the winner and one time runner up is excellent. The second thing to say is that MVG is not the player he was.
The last three years have yielded just three ranking Major titles, all of them in 2022. In 2023 and 2024 so far, he has reached four ranking finals but lost all four. That is eleven ranking Majors without a title, his worst run since winning his first Major, this one, back in 2012.
His recent form is encouraging, but not straightforward. He has been struggling to pick up ranking titles in 2024. There were lots of losing quarters, semis and finals. He was still winning a lot of matches, his 2024 win rate is 69%, but he couldn’t get it over the line, something he did in his sleep a few years ago.
Ranking Title
Then, just three weeks ago, he won PC21. He had finally got a ranking title. He backed that up by winning the Hungarian Darts Trophy just four days later. MVG was back, confidence restored and just at the right time.
Then he got ill and withdrew from PC22, PC23, the Swiss Darts Trophy, and the three Players Championship held earlier this week. From ideal preparation to a big question mark. Has he just used having a bit of a cold as an excuse to take time off and prepare for the big money events at home, or has he been properly ill?
It is now hard to say what kind of form he is in. I wouldn’t be in a rush to lay him, but there has to be a hesitation in backing him.
4 Rob Cross – 1/1/2/1/2/1/1
A very poor tournament record is the first thing to note. Just two matches won from seven appearances. His record in the Majors has taken a bit of a dip in recent years. He hasn’t won one since 2021, but his form in his last five reads RU/2/SF/QF/QF, so he seems to be heading the right way. But this is his worst Major by a mile.
Cross’ recent form sees six wins from his last ten matches and he has played some great stuff, but there were three sub 91 averages in those ten. That makes winning titles hard. He did very well in World Series events, but they are non-ranking exhibitions and it did not kick start his form in ranking events.
He has won one Euro Tour title in 2023, and while he has enjoyed some good runs in the Majors recently, it is hard to get enthusiastic about his chances in the 2024 World Grand Prix given his history.
5 Nathan Aspinall – QF/1/1/RU/1
His comeback from an injury enforced two month layoff is ongoing. There is no sign that he is in any pain, but he looks a bit frustrated, maybe expecting too much, too soon?
His form in the ranking Majors has been poor since he won last year’s World Matchplay. Form figures of 1/2/2/-/2/5/2 are not inspiring. He made the final here in 2022, which means he is defending £60K in ranking prize money. He dropped a place in the OOM last week, and he could drop to tenth with a first round exit.
The Asp’s recent form sees seventeen matches played since he returned from his long layoff. He has won eight and played some good stuff, but the consistency will be the last thing to come. Aspinall is a confidence player and when he is not in top form, he can be hard on himself and that makes things harder. It is hard to see a big run at the 2024 World Grand Prix, but he could win a match or two.
6 Dave Chisnall – 1/2/RU/1/2/SF/2/QF/RU/SF/QF/1/1
The best player to have never won a ranking Major tag is still hanging round Chisnall’s neck. Away from the TV stages, he is doing great, winning two Euro Tour titles, two Players Championships in 2024 and tops the Pro Tour OOM, is second in the Euro Tour OOM and is up to 5th in the PDC OOM.
That is his joint ever highest ranking and his best since 2013. Is that a sign that 2024 could be his year to finally break through? There have been a few of those before.
Chisnall’s record in this event is his best of all the other ranking Majors. Twice a runner up, the first time in 2013, when he finished the season 5th in the PDC OOM, twice a semi-finalist and with two other quarter finals. He has fallen at the first fence in the last two years and the pressure of expectations every time he tees it up here might have been the problem
His recent form sees eight wins from his last ten matches and he picked up his fourth title of the year a couple of weeks ago. He ticks a lot of boxes, but can he get it done on TV? History says no.
7 Gerwyn Price – 1/1/2/QF/1/W/RU/SF/RU
Another player with a great tournament record. He has made the final in three of the last four years, winning one, and the semi-final of the other. Excellent tournament form. On the negative side, Price last won a ranking Major title in 2021, and his last five Majors saw form figures of 2/2/3/4/2.
The Iceman’s recent form see just five wins from his last ten matches. He has not won a ranking title in 2024, has lost his last five Euro Tour matches on the bounce and there is something missing in his game.
He has complained of an undisclosed health problem and he just isn’t firing on all cylinders. If a return to a favourite event gets him going, he could have a good run at the 2024 World Grand Prix, but he is hard to fancy.
8 Jonny Clayton – 1/1/W/2/1
The Ferret won this, his only ranking Major title, in 2021, the year of the Ferret. In his other five appearances, he has won just two matches, so he can’t be called a tournament specialist. His form has not recovered since he lost the final of the 2023 World Matchplay and the death of his father around the same time.
Clayton’s recent form sees six wins from his last ten matches and he is playing OK, but OK rarely wins Majors.
9 Damon Heta – 1/1/1
The Heat has yet to win a match in this event from his three previous appearances. He had his best run in a ranking Major when reaching the semi-final of the UK Open back in March and he has won two Players Championship titles in 2024.
Most recently he has won seven of his last ten matches and has played some very good stuff, but he does look frustrated by the lack of big titles. That tournament record will loom large in his mind but maybe if he can get over the first hurdle, he can have a decent run, he is playing well enough to think that he could.
10 Ross Smith – 2/2/2
Always won his first round match, never won a second round. It is Smith’s recent form which puts me off his chances. He has lost five of his last ten matches, lost his last three, all this week, all 3-6. He is nowhere near his best form and looks very frustrated.
11 Peter Wright – 1/-/1/2/1/1/QF/RU/2/1/1/SF/QF
Snakebite has never won this event, his best being a runner up in 2018. He has had good runs in the last two years and his game is heading in the right direction, if still short of his best form.
He has won six of his last ten matches but he decided to skip playing in the last seven Players Championship events. That may be a bit risky for a player who is trying to get back to his best. While he has turned things around, from the very brink, he is only playing OK and it is hard to see a deep run.
Wright is defending his £40k prizemoney from 2022 and could be facing sliding further down the rankings.
12 Chris Dobey – SF/1/-/QF/QF
Dobey has rarely been a feature in Major Championships, but this has been his best. He has started to have good runs in Majors, five quarter finals from his last ten ranking Majors, and he has back to back quarter finals here in the last two years. The worry is that he hits the buffers at the business end of events.
In 2024 he has won three Players Championship titles and he is up to 12th in the PDC OOM. He is in the form of his life, has played some excellent darts and warmed up for this with a tournament win in PC25 on Wednesday.
If he can bring his floor form, and mentality, to the TV stage at the 2024 World Grand Prix, he could go close, but he is rarely value in the big ones.
13 Dimitri van den Bergh – 1/2/1/QF/1
A player who has already won a Major in 2024, but whose form has completely deserted him. His seasonal win rate has dropped below 50% and he has lost seven of his last ten matches, with seven sub 90 averages.
Van den Bergh is a better stage player than a floor player, but that will not be enough to make up for his lack of form and confidence. A first round exit beckons.
14 Stephen Bunting – SF/1/2/1/1/2/-/SF/2/2
What can I say about Bunting? His recent form lacks only one thing, a tournament win. He made the final of all three Players Championship events this week, a phenomenal effort. But to lose all three finals was, very Bunting.
Winning eighteen of his twenty one matches this week moves his seasonal win rate to 69% and he is in top form, but his ability to convert great play into tournament wins is poor. He has lost five Players Championship finals in 2024 and while he did win the Masters at the start of the season, it has not turned him into a winner.
I expect him to have a good run, but can he close the deal?
15 Danny Noppert – 1/2/2/SF/2/1
Another player who can’t be happy with his tournament win rate. He won the UK Open in 2022, thanks to a meltdown by Michael Smith it must be said, but his return on talent is poor.
Noppert has won seven of his last ten matches, played some excellent darts and I am always tempted to back him, but when I do, I regret doing so. If I were writing his report card, it would have to say, should do better.
16 Josh Rock 1/
Lost in the first round on debut last year. Rock has played a light schedule since becoming a dad again, but he has played well enough of late. He has won a Euro Tour title in 2024, and a Players Championship title, so a good year, but his performances in the limited number of Majors he have played in, has not been great. Rock has won six of his last ten matches and while he could win a match or two, his consistency isn’t great.
Pro Tour OOM Qualifiers
1 Ryan Searle – 1/QF/1/2
A revelation on the Euro Tour in 2024. Searle’s last three Euro Tour events have seen him finish QF/SF/RU. With one more still to be played, he must be a stick on to win. When he is on a roll, he rolls.
At the start of the season he was runner up in PC1, runner up in PC2 and won PC3. He lost six Euro Tour quarter finals in 2024, but just getting there is progress. His ranked Major form is the reason why he is still not inside the top sixteen on the PDC OOM.
He was runner up in the 2021 Players Championship finals and has reached two Major quarter finals, one here in 2021. It is fair to say that his stage form has not matched what he has shown on the floor. Has all that success on the Euro Tour turned him around? Is Heavy Metal about to play is best stuff on the TV stage?
Recent form
His most recent form is good but he wasn’t great in the midweek Players Championship events and has won six of his last ten matches. On his way to the final of ET12 two weeks ago, he didn’t play well.
His highest average was 93.68 when losing the final 7-8 to Martin Schindler. He will have been frustrated to miss out on a great chance to get his first Euro Tour title, but at least he knows that it is well within his grasp.
Searle is regarded as one of the best double 20 hitters in the game and having a strong double to go to is an asset in this format. He hits it at a rate of 45.18% and is ranked seventh over the last 12 months. That is better than anyone else in the tournament, by 0.14% from Gary Anderson. He is better at double 18 with 46.34%, ranked 6th in the tournament, so he has two strong, go to doubles.
2 Luke Littler – Debut
Many peoples’ idea of the likely winner. Littler started the year by being runner up in the World Championship and since then he has won the Premier League, the World Series Final, two Euro Tour titles, three Players Championships and two World Series tournaments. Not too shabby.
His win rate in 2024 is a massive 77% and his recent form sees seven wins from his last ten matches. He reached a semi-final and quarter final in midweek, losing both in a deciding leg, one to Bunting, the other to Dobey. He can be beaten, but he takes some shifting.
The problem is his odds. You are unlikely to get much in the way of value when backing Littler.
3 Martin Schindler – 1/QF
The leader of the Euro Tour OOM, having picked up his second title just last weekend. He has also reached two more semi-finals and three other quarter finals. He hasn’t really fired in the ranked Majors, with two quarter finals his best results, but he is playing his best darts right now. Like Ryan Searle, having all those deep runs on the Euro Tour will have given him a lot of confidence.
4 Gary Anderson – 2/QF/1/1/QF/SF/2/RU/-/QF/2/QF/1/1/2
Anderson is a keen angler, and this tournament is the one that got away. Just the one final from fourteen appearances. I was a bit surprised, when looking at Anderson’s record in PDC ranking Majors, that he has ‘only’ won five titles form ninety seven played.
Anderson will be well backed, as usual, and on the plus side, he is the heaviest scorer in pro darts in the last 12 months, with an average of 99.17. His seasonal win rate is 77%, the same as Luke Littler’s.
He plays a limited schedule and won one of only two Euro Tours played in 2024. Anderson is most prolific on the floor, winning two more titles in 2024 so far. He is also one of the best double hitters in the tournament. His recent form is good, with eight wins from ten.
On the negative side, he has not won a Major ranking title since the 2021 World Championship and he has only won one match here in the last three years.
Anderson ticks a lot of the right boxes, but he is not quite the Major machine that his reputation makes out.
5 Gian van Veen – Debut
Van Veen is progressing nicely, without making a huge impact title wise. Everyone knows about Luke Littler, many are getting to know Wessel Nijman, but Van Veen is flying under the radar, taking a little more time to mature.
He was a European Championship semi-finalist last year, and in 2024 he has reached a Euro Tour final, narrowly missing out to MVG, reached two other quarter finals and a couple of Players Championship semi-finals. His recent form sees just five wins from his last ten matches and he is not at the top of his game.
6 Daryl Gurney – 1/1/QF/W/SF/1/1/1/2/1
Superchin had a great run in this event between 2016 and 2018, when it was played in Dublin, reaching a quarter final, a semi-final and of course winning it in 2017. Since then, however, he has won just one match. He was one of the best players in the world, a top ten ranking from 2017 to 2019, but he has slid down the rankings and found a level, just inside the top 30.
His win rate in 2024 is a healthy 64% and he has won eight of his last ten matches. He is starting to have decent runs again, making a semi-final last week, and he has had a Euro Tour semi-final and two quarter finals from his last four Euro Tour events.
Good Finisher
He is not the heavy scorer he was back in the day, but he is one of the better finishers these days, ranked sixth for checkout %.
When he won this in 2017, Gurney had a plan. Start on double 16 and then switch to treble 19. He wasn’t moving around the board, just focusing on that bottom left segment. He became a very proficient double 16 hitter which served him well for years.
More recently he has adopted double 18 as his go to double. He is hitting it at a rate of 43.09%, only the 11th best in the field. He hits double 16 at 45.83%, the sixth best in the field. It will be interesting to see where he starts.
The draw has not been kind, and he has drawn MVG in the first round.
7 Richardo Pietreczko – Debut
It has not been a good season for Pietreczko. His win rate is just 42% and his seasonal average has dropped below 90. He has lost six of his last ten matches and is very hard to fancy.
8 Raymond van Barneveld-2/SF/RU/RU/SF/2/1/2/2/2/1/SF/QF/2/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/1
A two time runner up, but that was a long time ago. Barney is more the journeyman pro these days, but still plays to a good level. Barney warmed up for this by reaching the semi-final of PC26 on Thursday, and he has won eight of his last ten matches. He has drawn Ricardo Pietreczko in the first round. And he should at least make the second round.
9 Ritchie Edhouse – Debut
Madhouse finally makes his Grand Prix debut in his seventh year on the Pro Tour. His season has been built around good results on the Euro Tour, reaching two quarter finals and he has also made two Players Championship semi-finals. His win rate in 2024 is 65%, but he doesn’t win titles. Edhouse’s best result in a ranking Major is the 4th round of the 2022 UK Open.
His recent form sees five wins from his last ten matches, and he is not in the same form he was back in April and May. Edhouse played Graham Hall in midweek, beat him 6-0, and averaged an incredible 120.24, so he can do great things, just not often enough.
10 Ryan Joyce – 2/
Joyce is making his second appearance in the Grand Prix, having reached the second round back in 2020. He is another journeyman pro, but when he is in form, he is a player to keep on your side. The best checkout % in the game and it will be interesting to see how he gets on, doubles wise.
Joyce has won seven of his last ten matches and reached a quarter final in midweek, averaging 112 when beating Heta 6-2. He will be a difficult opponent.
11 Cameron Menzies – Debut
Menzies has worked hard to be a bit more professional in 2024, and his qualification for this is a reward for that. His win rate in 2024 is 70% and he had a great run of form, starting in July with a Players Championship semi-final and he followed that up with three quarter finals, another semi and a final at the end of August. Most recently, he has won five of his last ten matches and he may have just gone off the boil a little.
12 James Wade – 1/QF/W/1/1/W/SF/1/SF/RU/1/1/1/1/2/1/2/1/1
A two time winner but he has only won two matches in the last nine years. Wade didn’t play in the midweek tournaments and he has been picking up decent cheques without winning titles.
He was a semi-finalist at the World Matchplay in the summer, reached a quarter final in Europe last weekend and a Players Championship semi-final just before that. He has won seven of his last ten matches and he might be able to improve on his recent, poor form in the event.
13 Mike de Decker – 1/
Lost his first round match on debut last year, but De Decker is now a PDC title winner, having won PC16 at the start of August. More recently, he has won seven of his last ten and he is playing quite well and reasonably consistently. His win rate in 2024 is 67% but he is yet to make any great impression in the Majors.
14 Joe Cullen – 1/2/1/1/QF/1/1/2/SF
A semi-finalist here last year, but it is hard to see a repeat of that kind of result. Cullen is in poor form. His win rate in 2024 is only 47% and he has lost five of his last ten matches, six seeing sub 90 averages. His scoring is a problem, so even if he gets into the legs quickly, he is still likely to struggle.
15 Brendan Dolan – 2/-/-/-/1/1/1/RU/SF/1/1/1/2/-/-/-/1/1/1/2
Famously the first player to hit a televised nine darter in the double in format and a one-time runner up and semi-finalist the following year. It has been slim pickings outside of those two great efforts. Just qualifying is the target these days, and he just about hung on to his place.
Dolan’s recent form sees six defeats from his last ten. He did win four matches this week, but half his last ten have seen sub 90 averages and like Cullen, he is really struggling with his scoring. Dolan has only won five of his last twenty one matches and an early exit looks very likely.
16 Luke Woodhouse – 2/
Made the second round on debut last year. Woodhouse is enjoying his best ever season and he is currently 33rd on the PDC OOM, so two match wins and he makes the very important top 32. His recent form sees five wins from his last ten matches.
He was suffering with an arm injury at the Swiss Darts Trophy last weekend, averaging 74.32 in a 0-6 loss to Wessel Nijman. I was surprised to see him turn out for the midweek events, but he did and he won five matches, all in PC26 on Thursday, reaching the semi-final, so it would seem that he is OK now.
He has drawn the out of form Dimitri van den Bergh in the first round, so he could get a win there, so long as whatever his problem last weekend does not reoccur.
2024 World Grand Prix: Doubles Stats
With the emphasis on doubles, it would be remiss not to have a look at the various players prowess on the outer ring. Every tournament requires the players to finish on a double/Bullseye, but this one requires a double to be hit before the player can start scoring.
Obviously, the more times you can hit a double with your first dart, or at least with one of your first three, the better. You don’t need to pick a double that if missed inside, you want to go straight to another, double 16 to double 8 for example. You can just keep on going for the double of choice.
It is important to have practiced your favourite doubles in preparation and to have a plan. If your double of choice is double 20, and you are missing, what is plan B? Having two, or even three strong doubles helps get you into the game. After that, it is just normal darts.
Tops Popular
Most players gravitate to double 20. It is a common finishing double, and it gets the most available points so there is some logic to that choice. It is a flawed logic, as the vast Majority of players are better on other doubles. MVG for example, hits double 18 at 58.89%, but only 44.18% on double 20. Players should be making use of all the stats on the their game and practicing their two strongest.
I like to try and keep things simple and not go into the minutiae of statistical analysis, but there are a few players who stick out when it comes to double hitting, based on televised or streamed events only.
Of the thirty two players in the tournament there are three that caught my eye when looking at hitting double 20, double 18 and double 16.
Double Hitters
Michael van Gerwen is ranked 3rd for double 20 and 1st for double 18. Being that strong on two doubles may go some way to explain his fantastic tournament record. Gary Anderson is ranked 2nd for double 20 and 2nd for double 18. Ryan Searle 1st for double 20 and 6th for double 18.
If they play ‘to form’ they should be getting into the game quicker than most. Of course, if they miss a few, their wheels can come off just as quick as anyone else’s. Like anything else, it is all about doing it on the day and when it matters.
Others that get an honourable mention for appearing in two top 10 lists, are Peter Wright, 6th for double 20 and 9th for double 16, and Ricardo Pietreczko, 7th for double 18 and 1st for double 16.
Luke Littler is the best in the field for double 10 (49.9%) but will he go that low scoring wise or bang in on the double 20 (41.46%). I would bet the latter, but there is an argument that it should be the former.
Past Form
Looking at the last ten World Grand Prix suggests that the Pro Tour Qualifiers are unlikely to be winning the title. Of the last ten winners, all have come from the PDC OOM qualifiers. The number 1 seed has won four, number three seed twice, sixth seed, seventh seed and eleventh seed once. The biggest ‘outsider’ was the 14th ranked player, Jonny Clayton in 2021.
Of the Pro Tour qualifiers, only Dirk van Duijvenbode made the final, and that was in the behind closed doors event in 2020. Of course, we have a certain Luke Littler on the Pro Tour qualifiers list, so that trend may be tested, but history is not on his side. Winning on debut is also a rarity.
The 2024 World Grand Prix Draw
First Quarter
This quarter looks to revolve around the opening first round match between Humphries and Bunting. Humphries put some ordinary form behind him when winning PC26 on Thursday, while Bunting won everything but a final, losing to Humphries in Thursdays final.
When it comes to winning big tournaments, Humphries makes much more appeal than Bunting, but he is priced accordingly. The other six players in the quarter didn’t make the short list.
Second Quarter
Luke Littler is the favourite to win the tournament, despite history not being on his side. There are two ‘dark horses’ in the quarter in Ryan Searle and Martin Schindler. They are all Pro Tour qualifiers, and they do not tend to do so well, but they are the top three on the Pro Tour qualifier list.
Third Quarter
A fiendishly difficult quarter to predict. It features four former world champions in Gary Anderson, Gerwyn Price, Michael Smith and Peter Wright. They are joined by Damon Heta, Danny Noppert, Mike de Decker and James Wade. All quality players and whoever comes through this quarter will have done well.
Fourth Quarter
More of a mixed bag. MVG makes plenty of appeal, but his withdrawal from recent tournaments is a little concerning. He faces Daryl Gurney in the first round and their recent H2H record is surprisingly close.
Chris Dobey is in top form, should have little problem with Cullen in round one, and he too has a good recent H2H record vs. MVG. It took him a while to get one past MVG, but he is no longer intimidated by him. His odds are, for once, reasonable.
Dave Chisnall is having a great season, but I can’t back him in a televised tournament.
2024 World Grand Prix Selections
The market is dominated by the two Lukes. Littler, on debut, is the 4.50 favourite, Humphries 5.50. They are both in the top half of the draw, so they cannot meet in the final. Humphries does look to have a better quarter than Littler, but if they meet in the semi-final, I will not be surprised. Humphries got the better of Littler on the Euro Tour last week, so he has that very recent win to draw on. He is the defending champion and has more experience of the format.
2024 World Grand Prix Tip: 1 point Luke Humphries to win @ 5.50 with SpreadEx
It is hard to pass over Gerwyn Price, but I will. His tournament record in the last four years is outstanding, but there is something missing in his game. That, and he is in the very toughest quarter. My other two selections are more speculative, but worth backing to modest stakes.
Chris Dobey has a decent draw, despite being in MVG’s quarter. Van Gerwen has to get past Daryl Gurney in round one, and that is not a given, and Dobey has improved what was a dreadful H2H record vs. MVG. It is 3-3 over their last six and he beat Van Gerwen 3-2 here last year on his way to the quarter final.
Dobey picked up his third Players Championship title of the year last week, and he has reached five finals in total. His stage form is yet to match his floor form, but we have had had three players picking up their first ranking Major title in this event in the last seven years.
2024 World Grand Prix 0.5 point e/w Chris Dobey to win @ 34.00 with Ladbrokes
The same argument can be made for Ryan Searle. A player with the game to win titles but so far, he has done all his winning on the floor. He has really improved his record on the Euro Tour this season and that is a good school for improving your stage form.
Searle is a good player on the outer ring and the format should suit. History says that Pro Tour qualifiers do not win this and it is a long shot, but worth a modest bet.
