2024 NFL Regular Season GW6

Jan Keys went 1-1 with his prop bets on Thursday night and his NFL overall record now stands at a respectable 14-9. He is back with more bets this weekend. Check out Jan’s 2024 NFL Regular Season GW6 preview and picks below.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (1-4) vs CHICAGO BEARS (3-2) (London)

Vegas Line: Chicago -2.5; Total Points 45

My Rating: Chicago -2.5; Total Points 44.7

Jacksonville Jaguars got their first win of the season last week against their Divisional rivals, the Indianapolis Colts. If they win here then their season can get back on track, although no team has made the play offs from 0-4 since San Diego in 1993.

Star rookie QB Caleb Williams will be the Bears’ fan favourite in London this weekend. He is slowly finding his throwing arm in the NFL after a few not so inspiring performances.

The line and total points numbers look about right to me, sadly. No bet

NO BET

ARIZONA CARDINALS (2-3) @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (3-2)

Vegas Line: Green Bay -5.5; Total Points 47.5

My Ratings: Green Bay -9; Total Points 48.4

You really don’t know what you are going to get with Arizona Cardinals. They beat the 49ers on the road a week after losing heavily at home to Washington. They have a steady team that doesn’t look too bad but this will be another big test.

My Green Bay ratings suggest they are a very good side and are probably in the toughest division. I think 5.5 is a big enough line and although Jordan Love is not back in full swing yet after his injury, I believe the Packers will win.

NO BET

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (2-3) @ TENNESSEE TITANS (1-3)

Vegas Line: Tennessee -2.5; Total Points 43.5

My Ratings: Tennessee -1.5; Total Points 45.4 

The Indianapolis Colts slugged it out with the Jacksonville Jaguars last week going down 37-34

Tennessee had a Bye Week last week and having QB Will Levis back will be a boost. The line suggests a close match up and I am happy to swerve this match.

NO BET

HOUSTON TEXANS (4-1) @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (1-4)

Vegas Line: Houston -7; Total Points 38

My Ratings: Houston -6; Total Points 45.2

Although Houston have been winning against some very good teams, they are maybe a tad overrated. This match up on paper is their easiest match so far and the Texans are expected to win.

Sadly, little has gone right for New England since their shock opening win of the season and it’s likely the slump will continue. My numbers seem to think the points will go Over so I will go with that as my first bet of the weekend.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW6 Tip: TOTAL POINTS – OVER 38

TAMPA BAY BUCcANEERS (3-2) @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-3)

Vegas Line: Tampa Bay -3.5; Total Points 41.5

My Ratings: New Orleans -3.5; Total Points 45.9

My line on this match would normally be New Orleans -3.5 but there are two key things to note. Firstly, Tampa Bay have not played for 10 days and New Orleans only 6 days. Worse still for the Saints is the injury to QB Derek Carr, who is unlikely to play.

New Orleans’ backup QB is a rookie out of Fresno State, Jake Haener. Although Derek Carr is no world beater of a QB, this is probably too big a step up for Haener. I expect Tampa to cover the spread in this match.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW6 Tip: TAMPA BAY -3.5

CLEVELAND BROWNS (1-4) @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2-2)

Vegas Line: Philadelphia -9.5; Total Points 42.5

My Ratings: Philadelphia -9; Total Points 44.1

Not sure if I’ve anything positive to say about Cleveland Browns’ chances. A team with a lot of injuries and a Quarterback whose figures are fairly shocking. Although only 5 games into the season, the Browns can’t wait for it to finish.

Philadelphia are coming off a Bye Week so are all rested up and raring to go. The line is set at -9.5, which rarely appeals to anybody. No bet.

NO BET

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (4-1) @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (3-2)

Vegas Line: Baltimore -6.5; Total Points 51

My Ratings: Baltimore -8; Total Points 51.9

Before the start of the season, Baltimore would have expected to be double digit favourites for this match, but Washington have proved to be a very good side, beating some good teams along the way.

My Superbowl pick, the Baltimore Ravens, are slowly finding their feet and are expected to win this potentially high scoring encounter. The Lamar Jackson & Derrick Henry duo are expected to carry the Ravens to victory. The big question is, will they cover the 6.5 points spread? I’m not sure so we’ll leave this game alone.

NO BET

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (3-2) @ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (2-3)

Vegas Line: Pittsburgh -3; Total Points 36.5

My Ratings: Pittsburgh -3.5; Total Points 41.3

Both these two teams are under pressure to perform. The Steelers have lost their last 2 matches by just a field goal and I expect them to get back on track.

Las Vegas have more problems than the Steelers. Injuries haven’t helped and now they are not sure who to start at QB, Minshew or O’Connell. Pittsburgh look value to cover the spread here.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW6 Tip: PITTSBURGH -3

DETROIT LIONS (3-1) @ DALLAS COWBOYS (3-2)

Vegas Line: Detroit -3; Total Points 52

My Line: Detroit -1; Total Points 47.7

Detroit are 4th Favourites for the Superbowl and coming into this match off a rest week.

Dallas, on the other hand, have a few defensive injuries with probably 3 key defenders missing from this match. Back the Lions to cover the three point spread.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW6 Tip: DETROIT -3

ATLANTA FALCONS (3-2) @ CAROLINA PANTHERS (1-4)

Vegas Line: Atlanta -6; Total Points 46

My Line: Atlanta -5.5; Total Points 45.1 

The Atlanta Falcons are looking for a 3 divisional scalps in a row, coming off wins over New Orleans and Tampa Bay. There is no reason to suggest this will not happen against the worst team in the NFL. Atlanta have also had an extra 3 days’ rest.

Sadly, the Panthers have struggled all season, only winning once against Las Vegas. This is a home game against a divisional rival, so hopefully they will make a good match out of it.

NO BET

CINCINNATI BENGALS (1-4) @ NEW YORK GIANTS (2-3)

Vegas Line: Cincinnati -3.5; Total Points 48

My Ratings: Cincinnati -0.5; Total Points 47.1

Looking back over Cincinnati’s last 4 matches, they haven’t played badly, giving both Kansas City and Baltimore Ravens tough matches. Although they have another tricky match here, I’m sure they will win a few more matches this season.

New York Giants had a surprise victory in Seattle last week winning 29-20. This was without key RB D Singletary and key WR M Naybers. Naybers is unlikely to return for this weekend.

I would probably favour the Bengals to win the match but with the line set at 3.5, it would probably sway me towards the Giants. But not enough to have a bet.

NO BET

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-JanKeys