2024 US GP Outright Betting Preview

The autumn break is over and we now have six races in eight weeks, including three Sprint race weekends, including this weekend at the 2024 US GP at the Circuit of the Americas, in Texas.

That means there are extra points up for grabs, as Lando Norris hopes to close in on Max Verstappen and his fifty two point lead in the Drivers’ Championship. McLaren are now forty one points ahead of Red Bull in the Constructors’ Championship.

Upgrades Likely

The Autumn break was not the same as the Summer shut down. The teams will have been working away and we should expect to see a lot of upgrades being put on the cars this weekend, sprint race or not. It is likely that these will be the last major upgrades of the season.

There have also been some changes to the circuit. It has been entirely resurfaced in an attempt to smooth out the many bumps around the track. The circuit was built on cheap, boggy land which sinks a little every year, creating ripples on the tarmac.

It was so bad last year that Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc were disqualified post-race (from second and sixth respectively) for having skid blocks that had worn down beyond the permitted level.

Runoff Changes

There has also been changes to the runoff areas on some corners for the 2024 US GP, bringing grass closer to the track, to deter drivers from exceeding track limits which was another feature of races here. New cameras have been installed to detect any breaches of track limits and flag them up automatically, to avoid post-race penalties and appeals dragging on and on. It is much the same system as was used at the Austrian GP this season.

Updated cars, a new track surface and a Sprint race format could mean that we get a more unpredictable weekend than might normally be the case. Holding fire on ante-post bets for the 2024 US GP is advisable.

The Singapore GP was a total wipeout for the recommend bets and a seven point loss. That leaves the season to date tally at +64.25 points.

Cheating Rumours

The ‘hot news’ going into this weekend is that yet another dubious claim has been made about possible cheating by a team, or teams unknown. This time it is about the potential to adjust the cars’ ride height under parc ferme conditions.

The rules are clear, you are not allowed to change the car once it is under parc ferme conditions, outside of any changes allowable for changes in the weather. The latest gossip, for that is what it is, is that one team has found a way to adjust front bib clearance between qualifying and the race.

This would be done by a mechanic fiddling about with a fitting inside the cockpit. The aim would be to change the cars’ ride height between qualifying and the race. Getting the ideal one for both, rather than a compromise.

No Evidence

The FIA say they will be taking action at the 2024 US GP this weekend. However, they also said that there was no evidence that anyone has being doing it. “While we have not received any indication of any team employing such a system, the FIA remains vigilant in our ongoing efforts to enhance the policing of the sport. As part of this, we have implemented procedural adjustments to ensure that front bib clearance cannot be easily modified. In some cases, this may involve the application of a seal to provide further assurance of compliance.”

Finger Pointing

I don’t know why they don’t just put a seal on every car, but maybe they are a bit short on seals. This is another in a long list of finger point exercises which have not amounted to a hill of beans. If it is true, then we will see one teams’ qualifying and race performance diverge from the norm. I suspect we will notice nothing.

Teams will always push the rules and test the boundaries, but they are very unlikely to just blatantly cheat. Being disqualified tends to wreck your season. This is not the sixties and seventies when cheating was a thing, but the FIA are much more able to police things these days.

However, it is another note of caution for the weekend, but with the sprint qualifying and race being held before the GP proper, we will have a much better idea of anyone has ‘been at it’.

The 2024 US GP Circuit

The Circuit of the Americas (COTA) is a purpose built circuit, designed by Herman Tilke and first used in 2012. It was designed to test all aspects of a car’s performance. It features corners copied from other F1 tracks.

The section of track from turn 3 through 6 is based on the Maggots/Becketts corners at Silverstone, the long, slightly curved straight between turn 11 and 12 is based on Hockenheim and the multi-apex 16-18 was inspired by the Istanbul Park.

There are elevation changes, heavy breaking areas and all sorts of corners. A good, all-rounder will prosper, and that means McLaren should be hard to shift. If your car has a weakness, it will show up somewhere around this tack.

Dangerous First Corner

The first corner is a crash magnet. A tight left hander, it tempts drivers to make lunges into the apex and it is easy to misjudge it, as it sits on top of a steep hill, and first lap collisions are common. The start of the race has also been controversial.

The left hand side of the track is not on the racing line and tends to be low on grip. The pole sitter gets to start on the grippy right hand side, but the left hand side is the shorter line into the first corner. It is debatable as to who gets the biggest advantage at the start.

Of the nine races here since the start of the turbo Hybrid era, the driver starting on pole has won four, the driver in second, also four. The other was from sixth.

Attrition Rate

The attrition rate over the last nine Grand Prix here is 3.78. It has never been less than two, with a high of eight in 2015. The average not classified rate in 2024 is just 1.55 and over the last nine races is 0.78. Obviously, losing Logan Sargeant has helped, but these cars are like Swiss watches, and the drivers are behaving themselves.

Fernando Alonso has a theory as to why we are having so few safety cars, and by extension, fewer accidents. He says that the best way to race these cars is to be driving at 90%, not flat out. He believes that the cars become very unpredictable, performance wise, when the driver is pushing flat out.

This is why a cars performance can fluctuate so wildly in qualifying, from lap to lap at times. The tyre temp gets too high, or too low and the times go out the window. In the race, the drivers are managing the tyres, and the best way is to be a steady Eddie, keep within the limits, whereas in the past you could push on, at least for a limited time, but now the drivers are selecting cruise control and driving within themselves.

The 2024 US GP Weather Forecast

It can rain here, and rain a lot. Flooding can be a problem and qualifying had to be abandoned on one occasion thanks to the amount of deep, standing water. Fortunately. the weather forecast is looking quite settled. All three days will see maximum temperatures of around 30 degrees with a 10-15% chance of rain.

Friday will be the cloudiest day, and Sunday should live up to its name. Come race time, the track will have rubbered in and it will be at its hottest under the direct sunlight. That could throw in a curve ball for these sensitive machines.

Team-by-Team

McLaren 

Pulling away in the Constructors’ Championship, but the Drivers’ championship still looks unlikely. Norris has to beat Verstappen by an average margin of 8.67 points per race weekend. The difference between finishing first and second is only seven points, so Norris needs to be a) perfect, b) his teammate to finish ahead of Max or c) hope that Verstappen has a DNF or two.

McLaren have won four of the last six races and they have been upping their strike rate, having dropped the ball a few times earlier in the season. In their last three race wins they have had two winning margins of over 20 seconds, and another of eleven. Their car has been enjoying a sizeable performance advantage, and that margin was growing going into the Autumn break.

Decision Time

They know that the competition will have worked to close that gap over the last month and they now have to decide what to do. Just keep this winning formula going, and let’s face it, it is unlikely that anyone will have been able to find the kind of leap in performance need to beat McLaren on merit. Or do they push on with upgrades that have been in the pipeline?

This season has been remarkable for the number of times upgrades have turned out to be downgrades. I would say only McLaren have made positive steps forward with their upgrade program. Everyone else has had unexpected problems when introducing upgrades.

It might take a number of races, before teams are getting any improved performance from an upgrade. More new parts may have to be made to upgrade the upgrade.

New Floor

McLaren have a new floor in the pipeline. The floor is the big downforce generator in these ground effect cars, and an improved floor can mean a big improvement. However, it is also the part that can create an unexpected problem. McLaren have held back on introducing the new floor, and there is an argument that they do not need to take the risk.

Lando Norris finished second here last year and in the best car, he should be very competitive again this year. He has always finished in the points in Texas and there is nothing to suggest that he will not be the likely winner, of both races.

Piastri didn’t finish last year’s race, but he has won two of the last six races in 2024, and only missed the podium once. They should be aiming for a 1-2 finish, but they have only managed that once so far in 2024.

Red Bull

They are not panicking at Red Bull, not yet anyway. They will have an upgraded package this weekend, the last one for the rest of the season. This will be more of a fix than true upgrade. Their car was not working well, and even Verstappen was struggling with it. They will want to sort out the balance issues which are making the car unpredictable and has caused Verstappen to call it undriveable at times.

Progress had already been made in Singapore and Verstappen was a solid second that weekend. That has traditionally been a problem circuit for Red Bull, and despite being a distant second to Norris, it was a sign that maybe they had at least stopped the rot.

No Pressure On Verstappen

Verstappen has been here before and as a multiple World Champion he is under no real pressure. He will think that he just needs to keep on finishing one place behind Norris, and he will still win the Championship.

The team will want to give him a more predictable car and he can do the rest. If the upgrade doesn’t work, than panic may set in. Verstappen doesn’t have much room for manoeuvre and if Ferrari or Mercedes have done a better job during the Autumn break, he could find himself finishing outside of the podium places. And then he would be struggling.

Good Record Here

Verstappen has won the last three US GPs and finished on the podium for the two years before that, so his track record is good. Sergio Perez has just a single podium finish here and his form in 2024 is poor. He has not finished on the podium in the last fourteen races, and his average finishing position in 2024 is just 7.125.

Red Bull have kicked Ricciardo out of Visa RB, Perez knows he is next. Just being able to ensure the Mexico City GP is a sell out and selling a shed load of merchandise, really isn’t good enough when he doesn’t have a dominant car to peddle round in.

Ferrari

It was a surprising flop for Ferrari in Singapore. Their race pace was OK in the end, but they were one of the teams who just got lost in qualifying. Leclerc has finished on the podium in five of the last six races, and but for that horrible qualifying in Singapore, it would have been six.

COTA has not been a great track for Ferrari. Sainz had a podium last year (thanks to Hamilton being DQ’d from second place. Leclerc has had a third place in 2022 as his best result here.

Ferrari have not exactly been consistent in 2024, but a podium finish for Leclerc is possible, a lot will depend on how the various upgrades pan out.

Mercedes 

Much like Ferrari, Mercedes have blown hot and cold in 2024. They looked to have cracked it in mid-season, with three wins from four races, but there has been just one podium from the last four races, as they took a wrong turn with developments. They say that they have a substantial upgrade package to introduce this weekend.

Hamilton loves this place. His first win in a McLaren was here in 2012 and he has won five US GPs and he has always crossed the line in the top three in the turbo hybrid era. George Russell has finished fifth in his two outings for Mercedes here.

Russell suffered an unfortunate run in mid-season, disqualified after winning the Belgian GP, having a DNF at Silverstone, and was only eighth in Hungary, but he has finished ahead of Hamilton in four of the last five races. However, Hamilton will be hard to beat here. Hamilton will also have a new engine this weekend.

Aston Martin 

Masters of the downgrades. Aston Martin are signing up personnel like nobody’s business, but that is all for the future. 2024 has been a disappointment and they are stuck fighting for the minor points. This has not been a great track for them and there is no reason to expect that to change. Lance Stroll has not scored a point in the last five races and it is all a bit embarrassing for the bosses’ son.

Visa RB

Locked in a battle for sixth place in the Constructors’ Championship. They lead Haas by just three points and Visa RB have not scored a point in the last four races. The team have parted ways with Daniel Ricciardo and replaced him with the New Zealander, Liam Dawson.

The Kiwi stood in for Ricciardo for a number of races in 2023 and he was impressive, finishing ninth in Singapore and only just missing out on points in two other races. It will be hard to jump in and be at a points scoring level, especially in a car that had lost its way after failed upgrades.

Haas 

Having signed a deal to work with Toyota from 2025 onwards, Haas are closing in on sixth place. The team are recruiting more staff and they would welcome the additional prizemoney from coming sixth, rather than seventh. They are the American team at the US GP, so the spotlight will be a lot brighter on them this weekend.

They have closed the gap by three points in the last two races and their car has looked sixth best at times recently, as the Visa RB lost its way after another downgrade. The two teams will only have eyes on each other.

The big difference between the two teams is Nico Hulkenberg. His qualifying prowess means he is putting himself in a points scoring position on merit. He has made Q3 in half the races this season.

Magnussen has looked a bit of a spent force this season, but he has played the team game, helping keep Hulkenberg’s opponents behind him at crucial times. Neither driver has gone well here in the past but Hulkenberg has had six points finishes, and no less than seven 11th place finishes, so he is scoring, or very close to scoring, in the majority of races. I would expect that they will have some sort of decent upgrade for their home race.

Williams

Now three points ahead of Alpine and after late season upgrades, and dumping Logan Sargeant, Williams looks to be on the pace of Haas, Visa RB and beating at least one of the Aston Martins.

Albon has been given a bit of a wakeup call since Colapinto replaced Sargeant. Albon is being pushed all the way by the young Argentinian, has made Q3 in three of the last four and Colapinto is right with him on pace. Suddenly, Williams are a two driver team. That may well have forced Visa RB to replace Ricciardo with their own third driver, hoping that Liam Lawson can jump straight on the pace.

I would say that, before the break, the Williams was the better car and they look very likely to finish ahead of Visa RB by the end of the season. Albon finished fifth here for Red Bull and was ninth for Williams last year. A good chance for more points? Yes, and maybe a double points finish.

Alpine 

Morale must be low at Alpine. The team have finally announced that they are giving up on building power units and will use Mercedes’ in the future. That is quite humiliating for a team that used to produce championship winning engines.

This is a team that makes little sense to me. They are not using F1 to develop technology and are left building a chassis to promote a very niche car brand. I guess they know they are sitting on a ‘franchise’, that is worth many hundreds of million dollars, so they may as well splutter on until they need to sell.

No points from the last three races and while they can sometimes find a sweet spot, they now have a rejuvenated Williams ahead of them, and points now look harder than ever to score.

Sauber 

This is the worst performance from an F1 team since Haas just gave up on the 2021 season. Haas failed to score a point that year, and despite Sauber having many more races in which to have a chance, even just to get lucky, they just don’t like doing it.

2024 US GP Summary

This will be a hard race to call, certainly at this stage. With a lot of car upgrades coming on stream this weekend, we could see changes to an already unpredictable pecking order. Add to that, a fully resurfaced track, which makes any past form tyre data quite irrelevant.

Added to that, the Sprint race format, meaning that the teams just have one practice session before the counting sessions begin, and now the ‘Bibgate’ issue. There are banana skins all over the place.

Traditional Track

This track is a more traditional type of racetrack. The last three have been on two very different types of street circuit and the ultra-low downforce circuit at Monza, so we have a lot of reasons to been unsure of what is likely to happen.

Lando Norris is the 2.10 favourite to win the Grand Prix, Verstappen 6.00, Piastri 6.00, Leclerc 8.50, both the Mercedes’ drivers 19.00, and Sainz 21.00.

The layout of the track is more like Spa than any of the recent ones. That was on a partially resurfaced track and led to Russell being able to make an unexpected one stop strategy to get him home first.

This weekend we have a totally resurfaced track, and we do not know if that could mix things up, but we will know much more by Saturday and Sunday. I am not going to have a bet, or bets, just to have something to hang on the preview. It is best to watch, learn and hopefully get back to getting more profits.

There may be a brief update for Friday’s Sprint qualifying, but there will be an update for the Sprint race and qualifying proper on Saturday, followed by the usual Race Day Update on Sunday.

-JamesPunt