2024 Mexico GP Betting Preview

The US GP proved to be another tough weekend for James Punt. However, as they say form is temporary and class is permanent so hopefully, we will be back in clover this weekend. Check out James’ 2024 Mexico GP betting preview and tips below.

2024 Mexico GP – stateside Reflections

Last weekend’s US GP was another painful exercise. Just the one winner and a loss of -6.50 points. The race itself couldn’t have panned out much worse. Carlos Sainz got baulked by Norris and Verstappen’s little first corner kerfuffle. That left the door wide open for Leclerc in the other Ferrari to waltz off for the easiest win of his career.

Gasly for top 6 was going just fine, until Haas sold Alpine a dummy, pitting Magnussen early. Gasly was brought in to cover that move, had a slow stop and then got stuck behind slower cars. He then got a 5 second penalty for exceeding track limits and that was that.

Haas then shafted Magnussen by trying a two stop strategy, which was just stupid, and he finished eleventh, one place outside the points. Only Colapinto easily beating Albon brightened what should have been a very good day, but was instead, a bit of a ‘mare.

That takes the season’s tally down to +57.75 points. Hopefully that particular storm has blown itself out and we can get back to making some profit this weekend.

2024 Mexico GP – High Altitude

The second leg of this triple header is the 2024 Mexico GP at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez. This the track at the highest altitude on the calendar, at over 2km above sea level, and that does have an effect on the cars’ performance. The air is thinner, so the drag is lower. That means DRS is much less effective than usual.

There is less oxygen in the air which means the internal combustion units are less powerful. That is OK, if it affects everyone equally, but in the past, the Honda power units had an advantage here as their turbo design was able to work more effectively. It is also worth pointing out that some of these cars are very sensitive to anything ‘different’. Mercedes springs to mind.

Short Lap

The track is a short lap and the race is run to 71 laps. There are seventeen corners, most of them on the slow side, except corners seven through eleven, which are very much like the Suzuka esses, or the series of esses at last weekend’s US GP.

The Red Bull was very strong through that section, but the Ferrari was stronger in the slow corners, so this track does looks Ferrari friendly. McLaren had a strange off weekend in Texas and it is hard to say if that was just them running new parts and doing it in a sprint weekend, or if it was track specific. The car is usually good everywhere, so I would tend to think the latter, but we shall have to wait and see.

There are two very long straights, and third not so long, but they all contain a DRS zone, but as I said, the DRS is very weak here.

The Weather Forecast

All three days look similar. Maximum temperatures of around 23 degrees, so cooler than last weekend, but a little more cloud on Saturday and Sunday, with a 25% chance of an afternoon shower.

2024 Mexico GP – Team by Team

McLaren 

On the back foot for the first time in a while in Texas last weekend. Norris drove a great lap to get the Grand Prix pole position, but tamely gave it away on the first corner. He was easily pushed wide by Verstappen which allowed Leclerc to take the lead and he was never troubled for a moment.

Norris then spent a long time following Verstappen, but was not able to pass, until he was hung out to dry by Verstappen, overtook off the track and got a penalty. That meant he was classified fourth, one place behind Verstappen and further away from winning the championship (now 57 points behind). Piastri had a very quiet GP, never in contention for much more than fifth place.

McLaren was not the fastest car last weekend, the pendulum swung firmly in Ferrari’s direction. Over a race distance, it was still faster than the Red Bull, but Verstappen was simply too smart for Norris. It was men vs. boys really.

Verstappen has a big lead in the championship, and he knows that Norris cannot afford to be aggressive and risk a repeat of Austria. However, at some point Norris is going to have to put some manners on Verstappen, otherwise he is just going to be the Dutchman’s carpet.

Norris best finish here was fifth in 2023, with Piastri back in eighth. They should both be looking to improve on that.

Rear Wing Speculation

There is speculation that McLaren being knocked off the top dog perch in Texas was due to them having to make changes to their rear wing. Rivals had complained that it was flexing too much and was acting like a mini-DRS. It passed the static load tests, but there was enough concern from the FIA that McLaren modified the design.

They say it has made no difference to performance, but others are putting two and two together. It is a bit too early to say, but to say there is no difference, is hard to accept. It may be marginal, but changing the design certainly hasn’t made it any faster. Teams spend resources on wing design to make the car faster, so having to remove that design cannot be a positive, nor even neutral.

The fact we are racing at altitude this weekend, and next weekend to a lesser degree, means that the downforce produced by the rear wings will be much reduced and as such, not so important for performance, so any losses caused by the enforced change may not show up so much. Power and mechanical grip are more likely to be the key differentials this weekend.

Red Bull 

Verstappen has enjoyed his trips to Mexico City, winning five of the last six races here. This is Perez’ home race, and the crowd goes mental for him. They have never had too much to shout about, as his best finish here is two third places. I expect the crowd to be disappointed once again. Perez is just too slow.

The track layout, with its long straights and that esses section, should be quite Red Bull friendly, and if the Honda turbo unit still has that advantage at altitude, more so.

That the car was much more competitive last weekend, after the autumn break, will have settled the nerves at Red Bull. Verstappen has qualified second for the last two Grand Prix, and that is a big improvement over Monza and Baku, where he was 6th and 7th.

However, they were slower than Ferrari and slower than McLaren over a race distance, and if, and it is a big if, Mercedes can get their car to work outside of Friday, they could find things tough again.

Adjustable Ride Height

The fingers were being pointed at Red Bull for the adjustable, ride height altering bib, but that would seem to have been a damp squib. Yes, the ability to change it from within the car is there, but it is not operated by the driver.

Every car has the ability to change the ride height via the bib, and that the adjustment is made in a different way, is no proof that it is being changed in parc ferme. Certainly, the Red Bull was an improved car in Texas, and with the FIA watching like a hawk.

Ferrari 

Fantastic race pace made Sunday’s race a stroll for Ferrari, scoring only their second 1-2 finish of the season. Their one lap pace is not so competitive, but that wasn’t a problem last weekend, however. The door was left wide open on the first corner, and they never had to do much following of a car in front, but they would have won by using the undercut in any case.

Ferrari have not won here since Mexico City returned to the calendar in 2015, with all eight races won either by Mercedes (x3) or Red Bull (x5). They now have a very competitive package and they should be in the mix again this weekend.

If we look back to Leclerc winning in Baku, the Ferrari was able to keep the McLaren at bay down the very long straight, and that was when the McLaren was running the mini DRS rear wing. This track is another with a very long straight.

In Texas, where the Ferrari really had the advantage was in the slow corners. The same was true in Baku. Build a gap in the slow stuff and defend on the straights. It worked in Baku and Texas, so it should work here.

Mercedes 

It all looked so good on Friday in Texas, but by Sunday, they were in tatters. It is becoming like a stuck record. Good on Fridays and then it all goes Pete Tong when it matters. The last five races have produced one podium for Mercedes, and that was thanks to Perez and Sainz crashing out in Baku.

Hamilton is a two time winner in Mexico City and four times the runner up. He may find it a lot harder to get a podium finish this weekend. Russell’s best result here is 4th.

They still do not really seem to understand their car. We have backed Russell to beat Hamilton as a pre-season bet and he has closed the gap to ten points, with five races to go. Hamilton will be sitting out FP1 this weekend as Antonelli is having an outing. Hopefully he doesn’t stuff it into the wall this time.

Unclear

It is unclear as to what package the drivers will be racing this weekend. Russell damaged his floor in his qualifying crash, and that is back in the UK for repairs. Lewis Hamilton was said to be unhappy with the upgraded package and he may wish to run the ‘July’ spec car.

Russell did recover from a pit lane start to finish sixth with the old spec car, so there seems little downside to sticking with what works, rather than trying new parts which takes them back down the rabbit hole. But Merecedes do suffer from being stubborn. They believe that you can’t go forward standing still, but you can also go backwards if you don’t understand the car.

Aston Martin 

Still holding a safe fifth place in the Constructors’ table, but with Haas and Williams having had successful upgrades, Visa RB now having a racing driver in one of their cars, and even a revived Alpine, they are now likely to struggle to score points. Neither driver has enjoyed any great success here in the past and they are easy to pass over.

Haas 

Have moved above Visa RB by two points, into sixth place and that is worth much gold. They were very strong last weekend, and ultimately underachieved on Sunday, losing a points finish for Magnussen, who was having the best weekend of his season. Hulkenberg has had four top ten finishes here across his six races, and he should be in the hunt for more this weekend.

Visa RB 

It seems the car isn’t the dog we all thought it was. It seems that they just had two rubbish drivers. Liam Lawson was back in the car after Ricciardo was sacked. He inherited a power unit penalty from Ricciardo and was always starting from the back of grid.

Lawson looked quick in the little qualifying he did for the race, and managed to finish ninth, beating teammate Tsunoda by five places, despite the Japanese driver starting from tenth place. That is just embarrassing for Tsunoda, and indeed the team for being so slow to shake things up.

Tsunoda and Honda were pushing for a test in the Red Bull car, in an attempt to replace Perez at the parent team. That idea now just looks ridiculous. Lawson has to be a realistic contender for more points this weekend. Certainly, the Haas vs. Visa RB battle is going to good in the run to the end of the season. They will only have eyes on each other.

Williams 

Another team who have been rejuvenated by changing a poor driver, for a racing driver. Teams are guilty of sticking by drivers who are failing. But look at what has happened when changes have been made.

Oliver Bearman has been a stand in for two races, and two different teams. He finished in the points in both races. Colapinto replaced the utterly useless Sargeant here at Willaims and has scored in two of his four races and is giving Albon something to think about. Now last week, Liam Lawson just destroyed Tsunoda.

Albon will have to pull his finger out. He cannot just go through the motions and beat his teammate anymore. If he keeps on losing out, his future will quickly start looking a bit less rosy. Albon finished ninth here last year and Williams should be looking at more points this weekend, but so are Haas, Visa RB and Alpine.

Alpine 

Gasly was running the upgraded Alpine last weekend and qualified in seventh for the Grand Prix. The set up wasn’t right for the sprint, but they changed it for the Grand Prix qualifying and he was genuinely seventh on merit.

The race went well until the pitstop, which was five seconds slower than it should have been, and things just unravelled from there. His twelfth place was not indicative of his real pace. Ocon is due to get the upgraded car this weekend, and the fight for the minor points is going to be fierce.

Sauber 

Had an upgraded car in Texas and Bottas said it was an improvement, but it made little difference and they finished 17th and 19th.

2024 Mexico GP Summary

Ferrari have thrown down the gauntlet to both Red Bull and McLaren. Leclerc is now just twenty two points behind Norris in the Drivers’ Championship, and they have got within just eight points of Red Bull in the Constructors’ Championship. From our ante-post bets point of view, we need McLaren to put some distance between themselves and Ferrari. But that may not be easy.

This has been a very strong venue for Red Bull (and Honda) and with Verstappen showing a return to competitiveness, he is right back in the frame for a race win. Ferrari are looking strong, but perhaps McLaren took a sideways step with last weekend’s upgrade and more importantly, an enforced rear wing modification. That said, their race pace was decent and it was a sprint race weekend, so they will have a had a week to digest all the data and that could kick them back to the top.

Mercedes Reverted To Type

Mercedes once again teased everyone with a turn of foot last Friday but reverted to type for the rest of the weekend. Russell had a good race, and maybe if they just swallowed their pride and went back to the July car, they could have a much better weekend. With question marks about the new parts being available, they may be forced to run at least one car in the old spec.

It really is tight at the top and very hard to say who will come out on top. It is also very tight in the midfield. Colapinto, and now Lawson, have introduced two new strong contenders for a points finish. The upgraded Haas is right up there, and even the upgraded Alpine is in the running.

Be Patient

The only sensible thing is to be patient, watch the practice sessions, and accept that you will have to take a shorter price, but at least have a better idea of what is going on at this track.

The pendulum keeps on swinging from race to race, and jumping in now is high risk. It is possible to make good arguments for a number of drivers who could win the 2024 Mexico GP, and indeed finish in the points, but it is better if you can make a stronger argument for one or two.

I was very tempted to leave the ante post betting alone, but having slept on it, Ferrari do make enough appeal for a modest bet outright. Red Bull could be better here, and McLaren are not going away, revised rear wing or not, but the track layout does look like it should suit the strengths of the Ferrari.

There is an argument that as the Ferrari qualifying pace is not great, that their odds may be bigger after qualifying, but this is a track where pole position has not been critical. I’ll take Leclerc to do the US – Mexico double, as Verstappen has done for the last two years. He is 13-5 vs. Sainz and is the logical choice of the two Ferrari drivers. Back him to win the 2024 Mexico GP at odds of 3.75.

2024 Mexico GP Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to win the 2024 Mexico GP @ 3.75 with Betvictor

The other markets can wait until the form pans out a little, but even then, it will be a tricky race to call, but opportunities can arise.

-JamesPunt