2024 European Championship Friday Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 European Championship Friday betting preview. It was a tricky start for us yesterday but we go again.

2024 European Championship Friday

Not a good start to the tournament with -3.50 points from the Thursday session. And what a strange session it was. Not a single match required more than nine legs, hopefully we will see a bit more in the way of competitive matches tonight.

Danny Noppert vs. Joe Cullen

This does have the look of another uncompetitive affair. Danny Noppert has reached two quarter finals and last year’s semi-final in his last three European Championships. He is in good form winning seven of his last ten matches, and while he doesn’t convert many of his deep runs into tournament wins, he does win a lot of matches and has a seasonal win rate of 64%.

Joe Cullen has a seasonal win rate of just 46% and an average of 90.54. That is well below average. He has lost his last four matches and six of his last ten. Occasionally, he has a good run just to confuse things, but this has been a long term decline, rather than just a dip in form.

Their H2H record is 4-3 to Noppert, but they have not met since 2022. Back then Cullen was averaging over 94 and had a win rate of 63%, so his game has declined quite steeply since then.

Noppert is the 1.44 favourite with Cullen 2.95. I’ll take Noppert on the handicap.

2024 European Championship Friday Tip: 1 point Danny Noppert to win -1.5 legs @ 1.75 with Ladbrokes

Chris Dobey vs. Jonny Clayton

Dobey is defending his semi-final money from 2022 and a loss here would knock him down to seventeenth place in the PDC OOM if my calculations are correct. He was a quarter finalist here last year, so he has enjoyed his trips to Dortmund.

Dobey’s recent form sees five losses from his last ten matches. He won PC25 three weeks ago, but since then he has won just four matches, beating such giants of the game like Keegan Brown, Rhys Griffin, Owen Bates and Callum Goffin. Even less impressively, he has lost to Martijn Dragt, Joe Cullen, Merv King, Keane Barry and his last match was a 0-6 thumping by Jermaine Wattimena.

That not good form, even if he did hit a couple of ton plus averages in defeat. He is more underperforming than completely out of form. But that, combined with the pressure of defending his top 16 ranking, is not ideal.

Clayton Improving

Jonny Clayton is back as Wales’ number 1 and looks likely to stay that way for a long time as Gerwyn Price is heading for an extended break from the game. The Ferret is still not back to 2021 standards, but his form is improving.

He has won seven of his last ten matches and has reached the quarter final of his last four consecutive tournaments. There are still too many sub 90 averages in his game to be winning titles, but his confidence is returning.

He is now the world number six player, which is in ranking only, he is not the sixth best player in the world, but it puts his form into perspective. He is not defending much money here at all, so no additional pressure on him at all.

Their H2H record is 10-6 to Clayton and in 2024 2-1, but Dobey did win their most recent match 6-5 last month.

Dobey is the 1.73 favourite and being backed, but I have Clayton as favourite here.

2024 European Championship Friday Tip: 1 point Jonny Clayton to win @ 2.30 with SpreadEx, BET365

Rob Cross vs. James Wade

A couple of tournament specialists going toe to toe. Cross is a two time Champion and one time runner up, Wade has won one and been runner up twice, all in the last six years.

Cross is also having a good run in the Majors having reached the semi-final of the World Championships, and the quarter finals of the UK Open, Matchplay and Grand Prix in 2024. He is now the world number 4 player but has only won one ranked tournament, the Baltic Sea Darts Open back in May. His recent form sees six wins from his last ten matches and he is playing OK.

Consistent Wade

James Wade was runner up last year, he was a semi-finalist at the Matchplay and quarter finalist in the Grand Prix. His recent form, like Cross’, is winning six of his last ten matches and he is playing with a good deal of consistency.

He will not give anyone an easy time, but he is far from unbeatable. Wade is back up to fourteenth in the world and has set himself the target of returning to the top ten and you wouldn’t put it past him to do just that by the start of next season.

Their H2H record is 12-10 but they have not met for over a year. They met at this stage of the tournament in 2022 and Wade won that 6-5. Could this finally be the much lamented over 9.5 leg match? It has close written all over it, so surely…….

2024 European Championship Friday Tip: 1 point over 9.5 legs @ 2.10 with Betfair

Ricardo Pietreczko vs. Damon Heta

Heta has only ever won one match from his previous three European Championships. Pietreczko won his first round match here last year on debut. Pietreczko is the only German left in the tournament after Schindler and Clemens were both easily beaten last night. It is safe to say that more was expected from those two, than is expected from Pikachu.

The German has lost six of his last ten matches, his seasonal win rate is just 41% and his average 89.75. That is poor, long term form. His last four matches have been better with three 95 averages and a 93, but he still lost three of them.

Damon Heta has picked up two Players Championships in 2024, but he is seeking a breakthrough in a Major. He has the game to do so, but perhaps he is putting too much pressure on himself. His seasonal win rate is 67% and seasonal average 96.42. On form, there is no alternative to a win for Heta.

Their H2H record is 2-1 to Heta and he has won the last two, both last year. All three required a deciding leg, but Pietreczko was a better player in 2023 and 2022. I cannot see this going to a deciding leg.

Heta is the 1.44 favourite but I will hope, and expect, the match not to go to a deciding leg tonight.

2024 European Championship Friday Tip: 1 point Damon Heta to win -1.5 legs @ 1.80 with Livescorebet

Peter Wright vs. Jermaine Wattimena

The defending champion, Peter Wright, has won this title twice in the last four years. Last year’s win was a surprise as his loss of form had kicked in. His form has been poor for most of 2024, but it has picked up in the last few months.

He was able to win the German Darts Championship in August and reached the semi-finals of the World Series of Darts Finals. His best form is still not there, but he is hitting plenty of mid 90 averages and if he can do the right things at the right times, he knows how to win matches. He has lost five of his last ten matches and he is vulnerable to a good opponent.

Wattimena On The Up

Wattimena is becoming that good opponent. He still is unlikely to win titles, but he is winning more matches and his win rate is over 60% for the first time since 2019. He is averaging over 95 and has won seven of his last ten matches.

Wattimena is still not the most consistent of players, and last weekend he averaged 107 when beating Dobey 6-0, but then just 86 when beating RVB and 89 when losing to Huybrechts. However, he can now be called a dangerous opponent.

Their H2H record is an intimidating 17-4 to Wright. He has won their last seven in a row and Wattimena’s last win was in 2019. Wright has handed out some drubbings to Wattimena, including a 6-0 win in this tournament in 2018.

The question is, can a rejuvenated Wattimena overcome that dreadful H2H record, and beat a diminished Peter Wright? The market has Wright as the 1.80 favourite and Wattimena 2.08. When you can argue that both players are too short, you know it is a match to leave well alone. No bet.

2024 European Championship Friday Tip: No Bet

Luke Littler vs. Andrew Gilding

The market makes Gilding the biggest outsider of the night at 5.50, and it is hard to argue with that.

Littler is back banging in huge averages since he went back to his old set of darts. He has won five of his last ten matches, but since putting the old darts back into play, he has won three (with averages of 110, 116,110) and lost one, with a 107 average. Only Luke Humphries can live with that.

Gilding has won six of his last ten matches, but hit four sub 90 averages, and just one ton plus. He did reach the semi-final of PC25 three weeks ago, beating Anderson and Chisnall along the way.

These two have met twice and Littler has won both, 3-1 in the World Championship and 6-3 on the floor in September. At least Gilding has not been embarrassed. It will be his slow pace of play that can put Littler off his game a little.

Gilding may get a leg or three and it is not a betting match for me. No bet.

2024 European Championship Friday Tip: No Bet

Luke Humphries vs. Nathan Aspinall

Humphries has won eight of his last ten and picked up another Euro Tour title on Sunday. He hit five consecutive ton plus averages and even stopped a rampant Littler in his tracks. It was a supreme performance. He has also become a monster in Majors, reaching the final of every ranking Major since he lost the quarter final here last year.

Aspinall has won just four of his last ten matches and while he is not playing badly, he has been a little inconsistent at times.

Their H2H record is 8-7 to Humphries and 5-3 in 2024. Aspinall does tend to give Humphries a game, even if he gets outscored.

We are on Humphries to win the title and hopefully he can justify his odds of 1.33. However, I don’t think this will be plain sailing. Aspinall with a +2.5 handicap would have landed the bet in six of their eight matches this year and he looks a bit of value in that market.

2024 European Championship Friday Tip: 1 point Aspinall to win +2.5 legs @ 1.73 generally available

Josh Rock vs. Mike de Decker

Rock has fluffed his lines recently. He missed six match darts to win PC28 and followed that up with a 5-6 loss to Pavel Drtil in the Czech Darts Open last weekend. It looked to me that throwing away PC28 had affected him and he was poor against the Czech qualifier. He also missed the chance for a deep run.

In the end, it was Kim Huybrechts who came through that half of the draw to make the final. Rock had been playing well before losing his last two matches, and he has won seven of his last ten, but his confidence will have taken a knock.

Mike de Decker has continued his fine form that won him the Grand Prix a couple of weeks ago. He hit three ton plus averages in the Czech Open but was halted by Luke Humphries in the quarter final. De Decker has won eight of his last ten matches and he has a real swagger about him.

Their H2H record is 2-1 to De Decker and none of those matches, played in 2023 and 2022, has lasted more than eight legs.

De Decker is the 1.80 favourite, with Rock 2.10. De Decker looks the obvious choice here, and he could win big based on his last two wins over rock, 6-2 and 6-1. The new, improved, major winning De Decker is likely to be an even tougher proposition for Rock.

2024 European Championship Friday Tip: 2 points Mike De Decker to win @ 1.80 with Betfred, Betvictor

-JamesPunt