2024 Breeders Cup Preview & Tips

We finally got back on track last weekend but ironically, not over the jumps. La Bellota won for us at 14/1 and Star Anthem grabbed the place despite drifting alarmingly to 16/1. I’m not sure what happened Designer, it was too bad a run to be true. This weekend we will focus on Stateside action, check out Dave Stevos’ 2024 Breeders Cup preview and tips below.

Friday

9.45 – Juvenile Turf Sprint (Grade 1)

The 2yos take centre stage at Del Mar on Friday night and first up are the boys in the Turf Sprint. A maximum field of twelve will line up in the stalls and we have seven runners from Europe. The last time the Breeders’ Cup was held at this track the first five home were US trained horses. Of the four European challengers, Hierarchy fared best in sixth.

In that race the winner Twilight Gleaming pinged the gates, grabbed the rail and made all. Being drawn wide can be a disadvantage on this turning 5f so low drawn prominent racers look like being the way to go. The one that fits the bill for me at a nice e/w price is Adrian Murray’s Arizona Blaze.

Two-Time Winner

The son of Sergei Prokofiev has won two of his seven starts, a 5f maiden on heavy at the Curragh and a G3 over 6f at the same track on good. He handles rattling quick ground, as he showed when running a cracker to finish third in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot and also when beaten a head in the Premier Yearling Stakes at York.

Another plus for this horse is that, unlike most of his European compatriots, he has experience of running 5f around a bend. He was drawn wide for that race in Dundalk but he ran a blinder and was only narrowly beaten in fourth. He had Aesterius and Whistlejacket behind in the Norfolk and he has just over 1l to find with Shareholder on that run. From a decent draw in stall 5, Arizona Blaze is the each way selection at odds of 16/1.

2024 Breeders Cup Tip: Arizona Blaze e/w @ 16/1 (4 places)

10.25 – Juvenile Fillies Dirt (Grade 1)

The first race on the dirt at the 2024 Breeders Cup is this 8.5f contest for the girls. The one I am interested in here from the plum draw in stall 1 is Philip D’Amato’s filly, Vodka With A Twist. By Thousand Words, this filly was last sighted running a cracker here in a Grade 1 over 7f.

In that race she reversed previous course form with Nooni in decisive fashion and she just failed to win by the narrowest of margins. Mike Smith rode that day and I’d imagine, in hindsight, he would have waited a bit longer to make his challenge. He had to come wide around the top bend and hit the front at the start of the straight but it seemed his mount got lonely in the lead and the winner Tenma just pipped her at the post.

Once Tenma came alongside Vodka With A Twist, she seemed to respond and she almost got back up to win. She ran through the line strong, which bodes well for this trip, and I am hoping Irad Ortiz Jr is a little bit more patient on her in this contest. If he is, hopefully she can reward e/w support at odds of 16/1.

2024 Breeders Cup Tip: Vodka With A Twist e/w @ 16/1

11.05 – Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1)

Since this race was introduced in 2008, only three European horses have managed to win. We managed to find last year’s winner, Hard To Justify, who was trained by Chad Brown and that was his sixth win in the race. That filly came into the race with an unbeaten record but this year, his sole representative is a stakes race maiden that has won just one of her three starts.

Virgin Colada won impressively on her debut at Saratoga, finishing with a wet sail down the outside to score by a length. She likes to be held up off the pace and she has finished second behind two of her rivals here on her last two starts. Scythian finished 2.5l in front of her at Belmont in a Grade 2 last time and Totally Justified was 0.5l ahead of her in a Listed at Saratoga on her penultimate start.

My hope is that the fav here, Lake Victoria, gets taken on for the lead early and that they go too fast too early up front. Thought Process, another front runner, looks the most likely candidate to put it up to the fav early and if they get racing too soon, they could set it up for a closer. Hopefully Virgin Colada is within striking distance when they turn for home and if she is, she can stay on late for the place money at odds of 20/1.

2024 Breeders Cup Tip: Virgin Colada e/w @ 20/1

11.45 – Breeders Cup Juvenile Dirt (Grade 1)

I don’t have a strong opinion on this race. Multiple convicted doper Bob Baffert has won it five times since 2002 and it would be no surprise if one of his three runners won but East Avenue looked impressive when winning at Keeneland last time and he might be hard to beat. We’ll sit this one out though, no bet.

2024 Breeders Cup Tip: No Bet

12.25 – Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1)

This has been a happy hunting ground for the Europeans. Since the inaugural running in 2007, eleven of the seventeen winners were trained by Aidan O’Brien (6), Charlie Appleby (3) and John Gosden (2). The Gosdens don’t have a runner this year but Appleby runs two and O’Brien runs one but surprisingly, none of those three are favourite.

The current market leader is New Century for Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy. The son of Kameko beat Al Qudra in a Grade 1 at Woodbine (8f, firm) in September, reversing the form of their meeting in a Listed heat at Ascot in July. The two of those look sure to play leading roles again here but they are just 9/2 and 6/1 respectively. It is hard to make a case for anything at a big price here so we’ll keep the powder dry. No bet.

2024 Breeders Cup Tip: No Bet

Saturday

7.00 – Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade 1)

This looks a pretty open race. Pandora’s Gift represents Stuart Williams in this 7f dirt race and I think she could be well overpriced at odds of 40/1. Yes, this surface is an unknown but her overall record on all-weather tracks is mustard and I think this versatile filly could be well suited by the step up to 7f here.

On all-weather surfaces in the UK and in the USA Pandora’s Gift boasts form figures of 211112. That includes a Listed win at Chelmsford over 6f by 2.5l and a neck second on fast tapeta in a Grade 2 at Presque Isle Downs, a race in which the winner broke the track record.

She was sent off at 10/1 for that and she was 40/1 for her last outing in a Keeneland Grade 2 over 5.5f on firm ground. She belied those odds with another cracking effort to finish just 1.25l back in third (Frost Of Dawn back in fifth). The bookies have completely dismissed her again here and if she doesn’t handle the dirt, they may well be right. If she does handle it, she is capable of outrunning her odds of 40/1. A small e/w interest is advised.

2024 Breeders Cup Tip: Pandora’s Gift e/w @ 40/1

7.51 – Turf Sprint (Grade 1)

European horses do not have a good record in this race. The only successful raider was Glass Slippers who won for Kevin Ryan back in 2020. Only two 3yos have managed to win since the first running in 2008. The one I am going to take a chance on at a big price is the Michael Trombetta trained 6yo, Arzak.

By Not This Time, this horse has won seven of his 26 starts and he is 4/19 on turf with six places. One of his best efforts came in the Grade 1 Jaipur Stakes at Saratoga in June. In that race he had to sit off the pace and make his challenge wide and while he had no chance of reeling in Cogburn, the fav here, he was just over 2l behind him at the finish and he was a neck ahead of Star Of Mystery. The Appleby horse is 14/1 here, Arzak can be backed at 40s.

In last year’s race at Santa Anita, Trombetta’s charge finished sixth but he was only 1.75l behind the winner and a neck behind Motorious, a 10/1 shot here. He has been finishing off his races well in recent starts and if Big Evs breaks well and takes on Cogburn for the lead, hopefully the race might set up for him. Joel Rosario gets the leg up and he has won on this lad before. Odds of 40/1 look far too big, hopefully Arzak can run on late for a place and reward e/w support.

2024 Breeders Cup Tip: Arzak e/w @ 40/1

8.21 – Breeders Cup Distaff (Grade 1)

The odds on favourite Thorpedo Anna looks the most likely winner of this. The Japanese raider Awesome Result won’t go down without a fight though and it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise were she to emerge victorious. I don’t fancy anything at a bigger price here so this is a race we’ll swerve. No bet.

2024 Breeders Cup Tip: No Bet

9.01 – Breeders Cup Turf (Grade 1)

We landed a lovely place with Shahryar in this last year and I am keeping the faith in the son of Deep Impact. He has had just three runs since then and he has run with great credit in two of them. On Christmas Eve he was beaten just 2l in the Grade 1 Arima Kinen at Nakayama. Then, on his return from a break in March he ran a massive race to finish a 2l second behind Rebel’s Romance in the G1 Sheema Classic at Meydan.

Last time out at Sapporo he shaped well over an inadequate 10f, staying on for a 4l fifth. The step back up to 12f here will suit him and when you consider he finished 1.5l ahead of Emily Upjohn in the Sheema Classic, and is now 2lb better off, he looks a big price at 12/1 compared to 7/2 for the Gosden mare. Hopefully Shahryar can add a third G1 to his CV.

2024 Breeders Cup Tip: Shahryar e/w @ 12/1 NAP

9.41 – Breeders Cup Classic Dirt (Grade 1)

The headline act of this race is the ridiculously hyped City Of Troy. Aidan O’Brien says he’s the best he’s ever trained, something he wouldn’t say lightly…. not. Coolmore are desperate to find a successor to their wonder sire Galileo and the propaganda machine has been in overdrive regarding this horse’s ability.

Yes, he was impressive in the Derby but his last two wins were workmanlike and this dirt surface raises huge question marks. Only the master trainer Andre Fabre has managed to win this race for Europe and O’Brien has tried, and failed, a couple of times. Maybe he’ll make me eat my words (it wouldn’t be the first time) but there’s not a chance I’d back him at 7/4.

Japanese Raider

Last year we backed the Japanese raider Derma Sotogake for this race at Santa Anita. He was a big price that day, just like he is here, and he ran a massive race to finish second, just 1l behind the winner White Abarrio. He came into that race on the back of an 8l defeat in the Kentucky Derby and he was lacking a recent run. The 4yo has had a prep run this time, in a Listed heat in Japan, and he was again beaten 8l.

Connections have opted to try blinkers on the son of Mind Your Biscuits now. He should strip fitter for his prep run, which came after a six month absence, and I am hoping that he has been specifically trained for a repeat bid in this. There is a chance he might just not be as good a horse now as he was in 2023 but if he can reproduce last year’s effort, hopefully he can sneak into the places again at odds of 50/1.

2024 Breeders Cup Tip: Derma Sotogake e/w @ 50/1

10.25 – Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1)

No US horse has won this race since Sistercharlie scored for Chad Brown in 2018. Long time followers might remember us backing Audarya in 2020, hopefully we can find the winner again this year. The one I am taking a chance on is Soprano for George Boughey with Billy Loughnane in the plate.

This filly has been running really well this season. A winner of the Sandringham Handicap at Ascot in June, she has taken her form to a new level since. She won a G3 at Deauville (8f, good) three starts later and she followed that up with a stellar effort when beaten just 1.5l in the G1 Matron Stakes at Leopardstown (8f, good), a short head in front of Ylang Ylang.

Last month she ran in her second G1 at Keeneland (9f fm) and she finished second, though she was 6l behind the winner. She was a bit slow away that day and found herself further back than ideal but she stayed on well to finish best of the rest behind the runaway leader.

On that run, she looks well worth a shot at this 1m3f distance and I would imagine she’ll be held up and ridden to get the trip. If she does stay, she could run on late to reward e/w support at odds of 20/1.

2024 Breeders Cup Tip: Soprano e/w @ 20/1

11.05 – Breeders Cup Sprint Dirt (Grade 1)

This looks like being a proper burn up. Five or six of these are confirmed front runners so in the hope that they blast off too quickly, I’m going to back a closer. The one that fits the bill is the Japanese trained Meta Max.

By Into Mischief, he was last sighted winning a valuable handicap at Niigata in August. Held up off a very strong early pace, he absolutely flew home to win more comfortably than the winning margin of 1.25l suggests. He has had one try in Group 3 company before and he finished third. His jockey left him with far much to do but he finished off very well and under a better judged ride I believe he would have got a lot closer to the winner.

This is clearly the toughest test he has faced to date but he’s still only a 4yo, which is relatively young for a sprinter. Hopefully the likes of Federal Judge, Mullikin, Raging Torrent and Straight No Chaser go lickety split from the gates and if they do, Meta Max can stay on late to pick up the pieces. At odds of 20/1, he is the each way selection.

2024 Breeders Cup Tip: Meta Max e/w @ 20/1 (4 places) NB

11.45 – Breeders Cup Mile (Grade 1)

European trainers have landed five of the last six renewals of this race and Charlie Appleby is on a four-timer. He and William Buick have plundered the last three and Notable Speech is the 10/3 fav to make it a famous four. However, he has disappointed in two of his last three runs and he doesn’t look bulletproof.

Porta Fortuna is on a four timer herself and she looks a big danger for Donnacha O’Brien, as does the French raider Ramatuelle. To be honest, one of those three will probably win but I can’t resist having a little e/w interest on another Japanese raider, Ten Happy Rose.

This 6yo mare has won five times. She had done all of her winning at 6f/7f but she produced a huge career best on her last start over a mile to land the Grade 1 Victoria Mile at Tokyo, defying her massive odds of 209/1.

That win came in May and she was sent for a break afterwards. She made her return in a Group 2 at Chukyo over an inadequate 6f in September and she ran okay to finish a 3l sixth. That should have left her spot on for a shot at this prize and she’ll be much better suited by this distance.

Maybe her win at Tokyo was a fluke, but there’s also a chance she’s just a late maturer and at odds of 33/1, it is worth chancing for small stakes that the latter scenario holds true. Ten Happy Rose is a speculative e/w selection.

2024 Breeders Cup Tip: Ten Happy Rose e/w @ 33/1

12.25 – Breeders Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1)

Cody’s Wish was a heartwarming winner of this race in 2022 and 2023. He has now retired to stud so there will be a new name etched on the trophy in 2024. Whose name will it be? Good question. It looks open and last year’s third Skippylongstocking should go well again but he is only 8/1. I think we have enough bets done so I am happy to just sit back and enjoy watching this race. No bet.

2024 Breeders Cup Tip: No Bet

-DaveStevos