2024 Brazil GP Sprint Race Preview

James Punt fired in a nice winner in Sprint Qualifying yesterday and he’s hungry for more. Check out James’ 2024 Brazil GP Sprint Race preview and tips below.

2024 Brazil GP Sprint Race

Oliver Bearman landed our bet in Sprint qualifying yesterday, and it has now been confirmed that he will be taking Magnussen’s place for the rest of the weekend. He was sixth fastest in Q2 and while he only ended up tenth in Q3, his mistake into the third corner ruined his chance on that lap.

A more experienced driver may have backed out of the lap and had another go while the tyres were still good. Bearman ploughed on, chasing a lost cause and even setting the fastest sector three time was not enough to get him above tenth as his time was deleted for exceeding track limits. He is quicker that than position suggests.

The four Sprint races so far in 2024 have all been won by Verstappen, and all from pole. I expect both of those things to change today. Verstappen starts from fourth, he was 0.32 slower than Piastri’s pole time and the Red Bull doesn’t have the pace this weekend.

Piastri On Pole

It was a McLaren 1-2 and the only fly in their ointment was that it was Piastri who got pole, and not Norris. The Aussie was honest enough to say that he will defer to Norris in this afternoon’s race. There is only one point difference between the places in the sprint, so it is not a big deal, but you never know how valuable a point could turn out to be, and if Norris was to win the championship, it would be by a small margin.

The two McLaren drivers are in the fastest car this weekend. The team have brought a new rear wing for this race and it seems to have made a difference.

Leclerc Next Best

Charles Leclerc was the next best, starting third, 0.254 slower than Piastri. On a short lap, that is a comfortable margin. All they have to do is choreograph switching places without tripping over themselves.

Not trying to do it at the start would be a good idea. It would be too easy to make a mistake and Leclerc or Verstappen could take advantage. Best to use the clean air to open a bit of a gap, and maybe do the switch on the last lap. No dramas.

The McLarens have not been the best off the line in 2024, but they have got better. It is not a long run into the first corner which limits Leclerc and Verstappen’s opportunities.

Overtaking Relatively Easy

Past sprint races in Brazil have shown that positions can change. Overtaking is relatively easy and the drivers can have a go. The problem with these sprint races is that the ‘proper’ qualifying comes just a few hours later, so not crashing and damaging the car is the priority. 

Last year’s sprint race format was much the same as it is now, and only one driver in the top ten in the race, made up more than one place. That was Leclerc who went from seventh to fifth. Verstappen made up one place to finish first, Norris dropped one place to second, Sainz moved up on place to eighth, Riccardo dropped one place to ninth, and four drivers remained in the same position has they started.

The 2022 sprint was altogether different. Drivers were making big gains and big losses, but the new schedule, in my opinion, makes the drivers more conservative. They know the big points are handed out tomorrow, and that starts with qualifying later today. Not doing any serious damage to the car is very important, so the drivers are not going to take risks, or at least they shouldn’t.

Bouncing Mercedes

Today we have no drivers really out of position. Hamilton starts from eleventh, but he has lost confidence in the car. It is bouncing around again and he is waiting for it to throw him off the road. Russell maxed out its potential to get sixth. Tsunoda starts eighteenth, while his teammate is eighth. The Japanese driver is too far back to make any great impression.

The big battles in the two championships are Norris vs. Verstappen. Piastri will let Norris past and do his best to make sure he stays ahead of Verstappen.

In the Constructors’ Championship, there are more battles to consider. Ferrari are chasing McLaren, so Leclerc will be looking to attack, in a safe way of course. Carlos Sainz starts fifth and he will be looking to improve on that.

Their car is usually better over long runs, so they look most likely to be putting the pressure on McLaren. Verstappen will do his best to drive Norris off the road, that is all he will be doing until the title is his. That is the biggest threat to a Norris win. If the penalty for doing it is of little consequence, why stop doing it?

Gasly Needs Points

Gasly in the Alpine in seventh place needs the points. Alpine are just three points ahead of Williams, so a couple of points would be huge. We have Albon in the Williams starting ninth, and with points only going to the top eight drivers in the sprint, he has to improve on his grid position.

Ahead of him in eighth, and the final scoring position, is Liam Lawson in the Visa RB. They are ten points behind Haas in the Constructors’ Championship, and in tenth place we have Magnussen’s stand in, Oliver Bearman in the Haas.

Important Battles

That group of drivers from seventh to tenth, are all in important battles. It is a fascinating set up. On pure pace, Bearman looks to be the quickest. Had he not screwed up turn three, he really should have been looking at seventh place, minimum, and probably sixth.

The Haas is flying, and it is surprising to see Hulkenberg down in twelfth place. The upgraded car completely turned around Magnussen’s form, and Bearman has picked up the baton and is running with it. Hulkenberg, completely dominant at Haas before the upgrade, suddenly looks second best.

Does Bearman throw caution to the wind and go for it? He has the pace to attack and overtake. We could see Bearman and Lawson fighting it out for a point, maybe two, and we have seen that Lawson is quite prepared to get his elbows out. I am looking forward to this battle.

2024 Brazil GP Sprint Race Bets

Lando Norris is the 1.50 favourite to win the sprint and that looks about right. We need he and McLaren to max out their points potential this weekend for the sake of our various long term bets on them.

Carlos Sainz is of some interest. He has improved his position in all three Brazilian sprint races so far, and the Ferrari tends to be a bit more competitive on longer runs, compared to qualifying. I was hoping to get a match bet for him to beat Verstappen, but I haven’t found one. He is available at 7.00 to finish top three, but I suspect fourth is the limit.

I was very keen on Magnussen’s chances to do good things this weekend, but instead he is stuck on the can, and Oliver Bearman has replaced, him.

The Super-Sub has been flying so far. Third in FP1 and making Q3 in qualifying. He did make an error in Q3 which cost him quite a few places, so he does look to be out of position in tenth. It won’t be easy, but he definitely has the potential to score points today.

2024 Brazil GP Sprint Race Tip: 1 point Oliver Bearman to finish in the points (top 8) @ 3.25 with Betfair, Skybet

He is 13.00 to finish top six, and that is not out of the question, but I will stick with the top eight.

-JamesPunt