2024 NFL Regular Season GW9

Thursday Night Football was a blowout for Jan Keys as the Texans were beaten by the Jets and Dalton Schultz had a quiet game. He is still just ahead overall with a 23-22 record, hopefully we can improve on that this weekend. Check out Jan’s 2024 NFL Regular Season GW9 preview and picks below.

DALLAS COWBOYS (3-4) @ ATLANTA FALCONS (5-3)

Vegas Line: Atlanta -3; Total Points 51.5

My Rating: Atlanta -1.7; Total Points 49.2

After a bye Week Dallas visited the 49ers and lost 30-24, which was close to how that match was predicted to go. Dallas are struggling to stay in the NFC East race but they have played some top teams so far, now they are up against a team on the up.

Atlanta Falcons had a good win last week in Tampa, winning 31-26 and giving them a positive season record. They are favourites to win this match up too. However, I just can’t bring myself to back either of these two sides with any confidence. No bet.

NO BET

MIAMI DOLPHINS (2-5) @ BUFFALO BILLS (6-2)

Vegas Line: Buffalo -6.5; Total Points 49.5

My Ratings: Buffalo -10.6; Total Points 42.6

It has not been the Miami Dolphins’ season so far and last weekend’s home defeat to the Arizona Cardinals leaves them struggling to make the playoffs. One small positive is that they do have QB Tua Tagovailoa back and he outscored the Bills in passing yards in Week 2. However, they still lost that match 31-10. I’m sure the Dolphins are better than a 2-5 team, but this match is a tall order for them.

The Buffalo Bills know how to blow inferior teams away, winning matches by 31-10, 47-10, 34-10 and 31-10 this season already. Their two defeats were on the road to Baltimore and Houston, whereas at home they are 3-0. Maybe this big divisional rivalry is keeping the spread under a touchdown but it’s hard to see the Bills not covering.

However, my computerised total points system makes this match a good UNDERS bet and this will be my selection.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW9 Tip: UNDER 49.5 POINTS

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (2-6) @ CINCINNATI BENGALS (3-5)

Vegas Line: Cincinnati -7; Total Points 46.0

My Ratings: Cincinnati -7.2; Total Points 46.4

Las Vegas Raiders are a bad team. There is no disputing this, but over the last two matches they have only lost by 5 points at the L.A. Rams and last week by 7 points against the double Superbowl winners Kansas City. QB Gardner Minshew doesn’t have much option but to throw the football because their running backs have been virtually non-existent.

Cincinnati Bengals have had a mixed bag of a season with last weekend their first heavy defeat. They ran Kansas City and Baltimore close, which is a positive, and had two recent road wins against weak teams the N.Y. Giants and Cleveland.

It is highly likely the Bengals will win this match but at 7.5 it gives punters a chance to back the Raiders and this is the small margin needed.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW9 Tip: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS +7.5

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (4-3) @ CLEVELAND BROWNS (2-6)

Vegas Line: LA Chargers -2; Total Points 44.0

My Ratings: LA Chargers -1.7; Total Points 37.5

Last weekend the LA Chargers had an easy 26-8 win over the New Orleans Saints, which was slightly better than expected. The Saints are a poor side though and teams have been blowing them away for fun in recent weeks. The Chargers are an average team and although a week ago they would’ve been comfortable favourites for this, now I’m not so sure.

Last weekend Cleveland were 9 point underdogs against highly rated Baltimore and they managed to pull off a richly deserved victory by 29-24. Changing Quarterbacks did the Browns no harm, with Jameis Winston producing their highest passing yards of the season. Let’s hope this team have turned the corner and grow in confidence.

NO BET

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (2-6) @ TENNESSEE TITANS (1-6)

Vegas Line: Tennessee -3.5; Total Points 38.0

My Ratings: Tennessee -3.8; Total Points 43.4

After six defeats in a row, the Patriots scraped a win against the N.Y. Jets last weekend. It wasn’t a vintage performance, but a win is a win. There is a question mark on who will start at QB this weekend as Drake May suffered concussion and Jacoby Brissett took over. To be honest, I’m not sure it matters too much.

The Tennessee Titans got smashed 52-14 last week by Detroit, although both the Titans’ pass and rush figures were hugely impressive. Back up QB Mason Rudolph has been decent the last couple of weeks but the No.1 QB Will Levis may return. I’m not sure that’s a good thing.

Anyhow, these are two terrible teams and +3.5 about the Patriots does look tempting, but both sides’ QB issues makes this a no play game.

NO BET

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (4-4) @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (5-2)

Vegas Line: Minnesota -5; Total Points 46.5

My Ratings: Minnesota -4.3; Total Points 45.0

All of Indianapolis Colts’ eight matches have been close this season with the biggest margin being 6 points, so Minnesota will have to try to buck that trend. Indianapolis will finally change their QB this week. Out goes underperforming Anthony Richardson and in come Joe Flacco. This would be seen as a positive move, although this will still be a tough match.

Minnesota Vikings have lost their last two matches against the Packers and the Rams but they’re still in the playoff picture and they also welcome back tight end T.J. Hockenson. The Vikings have had three extra days rest after a Thursday night match last week and this should have helped their preparation. I favour Minnesota, but feel the line is about right. No bet.

NO BET

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (6-2) @ NEW YORK GIANTS (2-6)

Vegas Line: Washington -3.5; Total Points 44.0

My Ratings: Washington -3; Total Points 42.2

Before the season started, these two NFC East teams were rated equally. After eight matches, the Giants’ rating has gone down 0.5 points, but the Commanders’ rating has increased by 6 points. Washington have improved since the Week 2 meeting where they won 21-18. Washington have now won six of their last seven matches their only loss a 30-23 defeat in Baltimore. This team are on fire.

The N.Y. Giants are 0-4 at home this season and face divisional rivals who are in great form. They had dreadful figures against Philadelphia two weeks ago but at least these improved in last week’s loss. Whatever way you look at this match it’s hard not to fancy Washington to cover a 3.5 point spread, one week before it’s all change at the White House!

2024 NFL Regular Season GW9 Tip: Washington Commanders -3.5

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-6) @ CAROLINA PANTHERS (1-7)

Vegas Line: New Orleans -7; Total Points 43.5

My Ratings: New Orleans -7.1; Total Points 47.8

The New Orleans Saints welcome back QB Derek Carr from injury. The main difference between him and No.2 QB Spencer Rattler is the number of sacks. Carr had only been sacked five times in the first five matches, whereas in the last three games Rattler was sacked 14 times.

Carolina Panthers are still missing QB Andy Dalton and Bryce Young will continue to lead this hopeless team. New Orleans beat Carolina in Week One by 47-10 and it is fair to say Carolina haven’t improved much since then. All this season’s seven defeats have been by a touchdown or more.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW9 Tip: New Orleans Saints -7

DENVER BRONCOS (5-3) @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (5-3)

Vegas Line: Baltimore -10; Total Points 45.5

My Ratings: Baltimore -8.1; Total Points 47.3

It’s amazing to think these two sides have the same record after eight rounds. Admittedly, Denver have had an easy fixture run and they are only rated two points better than they were at the beginning of the season. Rookie QB Bo Nix has steadily improved as the season has gone on but he is still learning his trade at this level.

Every week I claim the Baltimore Ravens are by far the best team in the league and for the second time this season, I’m left wondering what has just happened. Losing to Las Vegas and Cleveland when they were 9 point favourites just isn’t acceptable. This is another match they should stroll and win easy, but -10 after losing to Cleveland – No Thank You.

NO BET

CHICAGO BEARS (4-3) @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (4-4)

Vegas Line: Arizona -1; Total Points 44.5

My Ratings: Level Game; Total Points 44.4

The Chicago Bears ended their three match winning streak by losing to Washington via a last minute Hail Mary touchdown. They may look back at this match as an unlucky defeat, but they didn’t play particularly well. I’m still reserving judgement on rookie superstar QB Caleb Williams, who had a poor match last week.

Arizona Cardinals have had a much harder schedule than the Bears by an average of 3 points a match and they have managed to come out of that spell with a 0.500 record. Strangely, two of Arizona’s defeats come against Chicago’s divisional rivals but I’m sure the Bears aren’t up to that standard.

I do fancy Arizona to win this match but I never seem to guess the right time to tip them so we’ll leave this match alone.

NO BET

DETROIT LIONS (6-1) @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (6-2)

Vegas Line: Detroit -3.5; Total Points 48.5

My Ratings: Detroit -1; Total Points 51.2

The Detroit Lions are on a five game winning streak and strolled to a 52-16 win last weekend vs Tennessee. Jared Goff’s match figures were C12 – A15, Pass Yards 85, 4 Sacks, 3 TDs. Besides the touchdowns, he didn’t play too much of a game. Anyhow this is a massive divisional match up for both teams.

The Green Bays Packers are on a winning streak of four. They have also impressed all season. Their only downside coming into this match is that star QB Jordan Love isn’t fully fit but will probably play. If he does have to come out, backup QB Malik Willis is also a very capable player.

I would’ve tipped GB had Love been 100%, but now I’m going to pass on this match.

NO BET

L.A. RAMS (3-4) @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (4-4)

Vegas Line: L.A. Rams -1; Total Points 48.5

My Ratings: Seattle -1; Total Points 47.2

The LA Rams had a good result last week with a 30-20 win against the Minnesota Vikings, which is positive, and they have had the all-important extra three days of rest this week. Last week the Rams welcomed back their top two wide receivers from injury and this gives them a big boost on offense.

The NFC West is wide open and the Seahawks play all three rivals in as many weeks, so this is a pivotal part of the season. Winning only once in their last five matches suggests the Seahawks are on a downward spiral but this is an important match for both sides and a close one to call. If I had to pick, then I would just favour the Rams.

NO BET

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-6) @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (5-2)

Vegas Line: Philadelphia -7.5; Total Points 45.5

My Ratings: Philadelphia -8.1; Total Points 47.1

The Jacksonville Jaguars haven’t been as bad as their 2-6 record suggests. Last week they just got edged out 30-27 by Green Bay who are a very good side. In their six defeats they are 4-2 in losing by less than a touchdown. I feel they score enough points in matches to make the +7.5 look a favourable number.

The Philadelphia Eagles come into this match on an upward curve after winning their last three matches, including a good win last week in Cincinnati. Philadelphia have only had two home matches this season, losing 22-21 to Atlanta (-6.5) and beating Cleveland (-9.5) 20-16, so they failed to cover the spread in either match.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW9 Tip: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +7.5

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-JanKeys