2024 Brazil GP Raceday Update & Tips – JP
2024 Brazil GP Raceday Update
Just a 25/1 winner for James Punt in qualifying. Can he find more winners in the big race? Check out James’ 2024 Brazil GP Raceday preview and tips below.
2024 Brazil GP Raceday Preview
It was nice to get a big priced winner in the qualifying session. That is what can happen in these strange wet sessions, on a track which does produce strange results in qualifying.
Norris starts on pole, avoiding the kind of banana skins that Hamilton and Verstappen slipped upon. It is a huge opportunity for him to take a chunk out of Verstappen’s lead, and for McLaren to increase the gap to Ferrari.
Weather Watch
The first thing to look at is the weather. The Sao Paulo area is under a yellow warning for heavy rain from 10.00am Sunday to 10.00am Monday. So there is plenty of sky juice around. It is not as heavy as it was yesterday, so we should get a race.
Ironically, the best weather looks to be around 3pm, when the race was due to start, but the race start was moved forward to 12.30pm. I wonder if we might see the start moved again?
It does look like we are due more rain arriving around the start of the race and the chances of rain between the start of the race and the scheduled end of the race is 66%. The two hour period from 3pm to 5pm looks more likely to be dry, or at least drier. But it looks like the weather is due to play a part in today’s race.
How Many Cars Will Start?
There have to be doubts as to how many cars we get on the grid. Both Williams and both Aston Martins crashed and with the session overrunning, the teams only have three hours to repair them. The two Aston Martins, looked fixable, but Albon’s Williams was totalled. The team may be forced to put all hands on his car, and just leave Colapinto to sit this one out.
Carlos Sainz’ Ferrari was also quite badly damaged when he crashed out. I am reading that it is in fact Colapinto’s car that is being repaired, and Albon will not be able to take part. We shall see, but if true, that is a huge blow for Williams.
Strange Grid
The grid has a very strange look about it. Norris on pole is no surprise, George Russell in second is, based on the team’s struggles so far this weekend. He was second on Friday’s FP1 but they do not have podium pace, in the dry at least.
That being said, Russell’s race pace in the sprint was decent, but of course that was dry, and sixth was the best he could do. Hamilton was out in Q1 and is reportedly likely to start from the pit lane.
Yuki Tsunoda was third, Ocon fourth. Visa RB got both cars into Q3, Lawson starts from fifth place and looks very well placed to make a serious move on Haas. The US team had a mare, with both Bearman and Hulkenberg going out in Q1.
Ocon has the opportunity to leapfrog Williams for 8th place in the Constructors’ Championship. There is a lot of prizemoney at stake, and these battles are very important for the teams involved. Tsunoda got a great result in qualifying, now he has to back it up with big points, ditto for Ocon, Lawson and Albon, who will start from 7th place if his car is repairable.
Bottas Has A Points Chance
Our outsider bet to finish in the points, Valtteri Bottas starts in a promising 11th place, but he does have a lot of faster cars behind him, so we need it to stay wet and slow for him to have a chance.
Perez starts in 12th place and the change of chassis has improved his form. Like Verstappen, he was scuppered by the red flag after Stroll’s crash. It was thrown very late to be fair, but maybe the stewards had taken my advice and backed Stroll for Q3, and they didn’t want the Red Bulls knocking him out.
Verstappen had steam coming out of his ears after that incident and with his five place grid penalty he starts from 17th place. It will be fun watching him charging his way back up the field, and to see how far up he can get.
Sprint Race Hints
We can look at yesterday’s Sprint race for some race pace hints, but of course, that was held in dry conditions, so it is of limited value. The McLaren looked good, if not totally dominant.
Verstappen was keeping in touch but he screwed up under the virtual safety car, getting far too close to the car in front. That was a retrospective 5 second penalty, and another point dropped. Perez made up five places in the Sprint race, and the Two Red Bulls should able to make up a lot of places, if they can keep it on the road.
Disappointing Ferrari
The Ferraris were disappointing. Many thought that their race pace was going to be competitive, but Leclerc dropped a place on track to Verstappen, Sainz made no impression on the race and stayed in fifth place. Leclerc will fancy his chances of getting past the two Visa RB’s and the Alpine, but it may not be that easy in the wet, without taking risks.
Sainz is back in 13th place and he has been disappointing this weekend. He is usually a good wet weather racer, but he binned it today and he has to mount a recovery drive later today.
The Alpine of Gasly held onto seventh place in the sprint, but he was struggling for pace. He starts from 15th, but Ocon is 4th.
2024 Brazil GP Raceday Selections
We have two bets already struck for the Race. Two points on Norris to win, and a half point on Bottas to finish in the points. Bottas is now a 3.75 shot for points, so a bit of that can be laid off to cover the stake or take some profit if you wish.
We backed Norris at 3.00 and he is now a 1.60 chance. He is a good wet weather driver and starting from the front is a big advantage, but he needs to deliver the goods, in testing conditions. Hopefully he can do just that.
Experience Key
In races like this, chaotic, wet, mixed up races, I like to stick with experienced drivers who will have been in similar situations before. However the old masters like Hamilton and Alonso are either well out of position, or their cars are poor, or both.
It is hard to see how Hamilton will be able to do much. He is really hating his car this weekend, and driving a dog, in the wet, with little prospect of a good result and in a situation where the team’s standing is not affected either way, is hardly going to motivate him.
The range of markets is a bit limited today. The bookies are taking cover for a wet race, and the fact that there is a mixed up grid and perhaps not the time to compile the usual markets.
There are not many tasty looking bets, but there are two I will take.
Leclerc to finish on the podium. He has slower cars in front of him, and the faster ones a long way behind him. The Ferrari is not the best car this weekend, but it is good enough with Verstappen so far back.
2024 Brazil GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to finish on the podium @ 2.10 with Ladbrokes
The two Visa RB’s are in a strong position, but their race pace may not be so good. Liam Lawson continues to impress and he was faster than Tsunoda in every session bar qualifying.
He lacks experience, but he is making up for that with raw talent. Tsunoda is not a driver I would want in difficult situations, he tends to get overexcited, and I’ll have a go with the New Zealander to finish ahead of his teammate.
