2024 Cheltenham & Newcastle Saturday Tips – DS
2024 Cheltenham & Newcastle Saturday Preview
We are back at Cheltenham this weekend and we also have action on the Flat from up north. Last weekend we landed a couple of nice places but our wait for a winner went on. Hopefully we can land one on Saturday. Check out Dave Stevos’ 2024 Cheltenham & Newcastle Saturday preview below.
1.45 Cheltenham – Arkle Trial Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
First up on Saturday is the Grade 2 Arkle Trial and L’Eau du Sud is a warm order to follow up his impressive chase debut win at Stratford. Rated in the high 130s over hurdles, he had shown his best form in that sphere on soft ground and indeed, he has twice been a non-runner on account of good ground. It was good to soft at Stratford but it’ll be quicker here and that has to rate as a worry for his supporters.
The one I’ll take a chance on at a decent price here is Breizh River for Paul Robson and Ryan Mania. A modest performer over timber, this 6yo son of Stormy River has been transformed by the switch to chasing. Starting off with a mark of 107, he won minor handicap chases at Hexham and Bangor, both on good ground, before running a cracker upped to class 2 company at Uttoxeter off 122 in June, beaten 2.25l into third.
Robson gave him a three month break after that effort and he reappeared at Kelso last month. Running from 7lb out of the weights, he won that race by a head off 131, beating Malystic with the useful Tommy’s Oscar 12l behind in third. Obviously, this represents a big step up in class but he has an experience edge over a couple of the shorter ones, he is 3/3 on good ground and he is worth chancing each way at 25/1 for small stakes.
2024 Cheltenham & Newcastle Saturday Tip: Breizh River e/w @ 25/1
2.20 Cheltenham – Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier)
Friend of the blog Protektorat has the class to win this off top weight but surely, he’ll be using this as a stepping stone towards bigger targets. His presence off a mark of 167 means that four of these have to run from out of the handicap, including the one I am going to back, Weveallbeencaught.
Formerly trained by the Twiston-Davies’ team, this 7yo son of Getaway reached a decent level over hurdles. His best effort last season came on his chasing debut at this track when he finished a 3.25l third behind Flooring Porter on good to soft ground. He lost his way subsequently and was moved to Christian Williams after finishing well beaten in the Bet365 Gold Cup.
Back To Form
After a modest reappearance at Worcester in September, Weveallbeencaught produced his best run for some time on his latest start over this C&D. The first time cheekpieces and drop to 2m4f brought about a much improved display and he was only beaten half a length off a mark of 128.
The cheekpieces are retained and while he has to race off a 13lb higher mark here, he is still just a 7yo and there could be more to come from him. He will have a fitness edge over a good few of his rivals and we know he acts on this track. Williams’ horses are running well, hopefully Weveallbeencaught can sneak into the money for him here at odds of 33/1.
2024 Cheltenham & Newcastle Saturday Tip: Weveallbeencaught e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)
2.55 Cheltenham – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Back in January I put Zeeband up for a handicap hurdle at Navan at 33/1. He was in off 100 that day and ended up being a non-runner. He’s now running off 140, so that was definitely one that got away. He likes good ground but it is hard to argue he is well handicapped now and I’d imagine connections have a plan in mind for him for something later in the season.
The one I’ll take a punt on at around 20/1 is the Ben Pauling trained 7yo, Hardy Boy. This son of Diamond Bay won at Market Rasen (23f, gd) in August in fine style off 114. He went close off 119 at Uttoxeter at the start of last month and then he ran a grand race over this C&D off 126 (6lb wrong) to finish fourth, 6.75l behind the winner but just 4l behind the runner up, Gowel Road.
He is now 4lb better off with that rival so while he may not turn the form around, he is entitled to finish closer to him. Pauling’s charge had Beacon Edge 3l behind him in fifth and he hosed up in a Grade 2 at Wetherby on his next start. Good ground is ideal and if he repeats the level of form he showed here last time, he can hopefully nab a place at odds of 18/1.
2024 Cheltenham & Newcastle Saturday Tip: Hardy Boy e/w @ 18/1 (4 places) NAP
3.15 Newcastle – Churchill Stakes (Listed)
With a rating of 118 and all-weather form in the book, it would be a major surprise were Dubai Honour to get turned over here. He won his last start at this level by 5l at Kempton and he was beaten just over a length in a German Group 1 on his latest start.
Peaceman looks the most obvious danger. Rated 111, he was beaten a nose in a Listed race at Newmarket a fortnight ago and he ran alright on his sole start on an artificial surface at Wolverhampton last year.
The only one that makes any appeal at a big price is Claymore. There is no getting away from the fact that he is a very risky proposition. Slow starts have been a recurring theme for him but he has been gelded since he was last seen falling out of the stalls at Goodwood in May and if that has had the desired effect on his mentality, he has the ability to run into a place here.
He was only beaten 0.75l in a Listed heat on the AW at Deauville a year ago and he also ran well in a Group 3 at Southwell in February. His yard has had a couple of winners in the last two weeks and Daniel Muscutt is 6/23 with five top 4 finishes when riding for Chapple-Hyam. If he is fit, and if he doesn’t blow the start, hopefully Claymore will outrun his odds of 25/1.
2024 Cheltenham & Newcastle Saturday Tip: Claymore e/w @ 25/1
3.30 Cheltenham – Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)
Kings Hill is a horse I like but like Zeeband, it is hard to argue he is well-handicapped off his current mark. To be honest, I can’t really make a solid case for any of the outsiders here. No bet.
2024 Cheltenham & Newcastle Saturday Tip: No Bet
3.48 Newcastle – Golden Rose Stakes (Listed)
If he is at his best Annaf should win this. He is just 3/1 though and that is no use to us. With a rating of just 94, Pink Crystal has a lot to find on the figures but I’m not sure she has had her ideal conditions this year and when she is at it, she is easily a 100+ mare.
This daughter of Shamardal has run twice here before and placed on both occasions. On her second start here, in a 6f novice in 2021, she finished a length behind Tiber Flow. That form looks alright now and overall, she has had six starts on the AW and she has only finished out of the first three once.
The ground was too soft for her last time when well beaten at Newmarket but she shaped with promise three starts ago when beaten 4l in a Naas Group 3. This stiff 6f should suit her, William Haggas has a 58% frame hitting strike rate on this track and a 31% win strike rate (74/242). At odds of 33/1, Pink Crystal is a speculative e/w selection.
