2024 NFL Week 11 MNF Picks

Jan Keys is now sitting on a 34-32 record for the season after going 3-3 in Sunday’s NFL fixtures. He is back in action for Monday Night Football and a clash between the Texans and the Cowboys. He likes a couple of prop bets, check out Jan Keys’ 2024 NFL Week 11 MNF picks below.

Houston Texans (6-4) @ Dallas Cowboys (3-6)

Vegas Lines: Houston Texans -7.5; Total Points: 42.0

Jan Keys’ Ratings: Houston Texans -6.8; Total Points: 42.3

Last week’s Results

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 34; Houston Texans 23 – Detroit Lions 26.

Offensive And Defensive Averages

Cowboys: Average Total Yards (Off/Def) 315-363; Passing 227-216; Rushing 88-147.

Texans: Average Total Yards 338-288; Passing 219-175; Rushing 119-113.

Projected Totals: Dallas 280 – Pass 176, Rush 104; Houston 360 – Pass 232; Rush 128.

Houston’s great start to the season (5-1) seems a long time ago now, although they still remain playoff bound, they need to get back to winning games.

Looking at this match up, Houston are expected to control the match and will probably rush the ball more than they usually do. Quarterback C.J. Stroud is struggling to find his best form from last season and has been sacked twelve times total in his last two matches. He will be looking to bring this number down whilst also hoping to get his passing numbers back up over 200  yards again.

Cowboys’ Woes

Sadly it’s all doom and gloom for the Dallas Cowboys who have lost four games on the trot, and they have also lost starting QB Dak Prescott for the season. Last weekend without Prescott they were simply terrible, gaining just 146 yards on offense in the match. QB Cooper Rush only managed 45 yards passing from 23 attempts. If things don’t pick up for him during this match, he may be replaced by Trey Lance, although he isn’t much better.

I think most people see this as a comfortable win for Houston as they should dominate this match. If you can get -7 then it’s probably worth taking, but -7.5 is where I’m seeing the line. Also, as I don’t see Dallas scoring heaps of points, I tend to like the under 42 Total Points as opposed to over.

2024 NFL Week 11 MNF Pick: No Bet

Prop lines

Dallas Cowboys

Cooper Rush Passing Yards – 180.5 (so far: 68 Att 39 Comp 212 Yards)

Rushing Yards

Rico Dowdle 55.5 (so far: 26, 30, 32, 46, 87, 25, DNP, 75, 53) 2 Ov/5 Un

Receiving Yards

Cee Dee Lamb 60.5 (so far: 61, 90, 67, 98, 62, 89, 146, 47, 21)  7 Ov/2 Un

Jake Ferguson 35.5 (so far: 15, DNP, 95, 49, 70, 11, 23, 71, 24.) 4 Ov/4 Un

Jalen Tolbert 25.5 (so far: 12, 82, 42, 24, 87, 43, 44, 19, 14.) 5 Ov/4 Un

Rico Dowdle 20.5 (so far: 6, 29, 24, 15, 27, 30, DNP, 32, 3) 5 Ov/3 Un

Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud Passing Yards 237.5 (so far: 234, 260, 215, 345, 331, 192, 86, 285, 191, 232) 4 Ov/6 Un

Rushing Yards

Joe Mixon 86.5 (so far: 159, 25, DNP, DNP, DNP, 102, 115, 102, 106, 46) 5 Ov/2 Un

C.J. Stroud 9.5 (so far: 13, -1, 12, 17, 27, 7, 19, -10, 59, 5) 6 Ov/4 Un.

Receiving Yards

Nico Collins 72.5 (so far: 117, 135, 86, 151, 78, DNP, DNP, DNP, DNP, DNP) 5 Ov/0 Un

Tank Dell 49.5 (so far: 40, -3, 62, DNP, 38, 57, 0, 35, 126, 39) 3 Ov/6 Un

Dalton Schultz 29.5 (so far: 16, 21, 11, 34, 34, 27, 28, 52, 21, 66) 4 Ov/6 Un

Joe Mixon 15.5 (so far: 19, 25, DNP, DNP, DNP, 30, 9, 32, 0, 44) 5 Ov/2 Un

Joe Mixon has Rushed for over 100 yards in five out of seven games this season and this match is made for him to score another high number. Houston plan will be to control the game by running the football regularly and Dallas are weak against the rush.

2024 NFL Week 11 MNF Prop Pick: Joe Mixon OVER 86.5 rushing yards

A couple of interesting points to note. Firstly, Dallas’ passing game figures are likely to be 50 yards less than their average due to QB Cooper Rush not being as good as injured QB Dak Prescott. Secondly, Houston are very good at defending the Pass. Apart from Cee Dee Lamb, the receivers are evenly spread and I expect Ferguson to have only 3 or 4 Receptions and probably much shorter yardage than usual with Rush starting.

2024 NFL Week 11 MNF Pick: Jake Ferguson UNDER 35.5 receiving yards

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-JanKeys