2024 Las Vegas GP Raceday Preview & Tips – JP
2024 Las Vegas GP Raceday Update
Carlos Sainz managed to finish second in qualifying so we landed the place part of our e/w bet. James Punt is looking for more profit in the early hours of Sunday morning. Check out his 2024 Las Vegas GP raceday betting preview and tips below.
2024 Las Vegas GP Raceday
We nearly got the pole position, but Carlos Sainz was just pipped by the mercurial Mercedes of George Russell. Still, a small profit as we went each way. The performance of the Mercedes has left everyone, including Mercedes themselves, scratching their heads. Qualifying is over and we now have the race, which could be a different kettle of fish.
The very cold weather is set to warm up tonight by as much as seven degrees, and that may be important.
Team-by-Team
Mercedes
The consensus as to why they have been the fastest car so far this weekend is that it is due to the temperature. This car is the most sensitive of beasts. The sweet spot is the size of a pinhead, but on a cold, low grip, dusty track, they have found it. Now, we have to guess if a seven degree rise in air temperature will be enough to knock it out of that sweet spot.
In terms of long run pace on Friday, the Mercedes was not the best, so they were likely to be on the back foot in any case, but a slight change in conditions has been enough to turn their form around before, so they may be up against it tonight.
The car does tend to be a bit harder on the tyres than Ferrari or McLaren, and that helped them get heat into the tyres for qualifying. It may be more of a hindrance in the race. However, this is a low degradation circuit and while it will be warmer, it is certainly not going to be warm.
Lewis Hamilton messed up Q3 and starts from tenth and he just looks so bored. Russell should be able to put some daylight between them, if the race runs to plan, which of course it may not. Russell started from third last year, and only finished eighth.
Ferrari
They expected to go well here and they have, at least Sainz has. Leclerc has not really been on it and he doesn’t cope with these low grip surfaces as well as Sainz. There is some speculation that the FIA’s surprise regulation change regarding the skid block heights has affected Ferrari more than most. Fred Vasseur was certainly a bit huffy about it, but the affects would seem to be minimal.
Ferrari had very good long run pace on Friday and if we were to get a straightforward race, Sainz looks the favourite to me. Leclerc is not out of the frame, starting fourth.
Many teams have struggled with graining in the cold conditions, but not Ferrari, which is a positive sign.
Alpine
The most confusing team on the grid? A toss-up between them and Mercedes this weekend. Their tails are up after that ridiculous double podium finish in Brazil and they have backed it up with a third place on the grid for Pierre Gasly. It was Gasly who qualified fifth here last year, but it didn’t go well in the race as he finished eleventh, but his teammate Ocon, finished 4th, having started from sixteenth.
Ocon starts from eleventh this time. He was caught out by the red flag caused by Colapinto’s crash in Q2, and he had top 10 pace. Dark horses? Possibly. Gasly is feeling very confident and the car has made real progress. They are a team that specialises in pulling rabbits out of hats.
Red Bull
Verstappen has battled his way up to fifth on the grid in a car that hasn’t been enjoying the conditions. He has been fifth in three of the four timed sessions and that suggests that is where they are.
The less said about Perez the better. Our bet for a top six is right in the bin as he starts from sixteenth place. They have sacrificed some straight line speed by bringing a rather draggy rear wing, which is odd as the track is dominated by straights. Yes, it will help with tyre wear, but this is not a track that is hard on tyres.
It may help generate a bit more heat in the tyres, but that didn’t happen in qualifying, so it would seem to be an overall loss.
McLaren
I am getting concerned about our bet on McLaren to win the Constructors’ title. I expected this to be a good track for Ferrari but I didn’t expect McLaren to be so far off them. Norris starts from sixth and Piastri eighth.
After Friday’s free practice, the team were happy with their one lap pace, but not with their long run pace. After they flopped in qualifying, that doesn’t leave them in a good place.
Norris has been a bit annoying this weekend. He seems to be feeling a bit sorry for himself, saying he can’t cope with this and can’t do that. He is showing a very defeatist attitude. Piastri is just not on form.
Visa RB
The battle for sixth is hotting up. Gasly has thrown down the gauntlet, but Visa RB have Tsunoda starting from seventh. The problem is that Tsunoda struggles to match his qualifying pace with his race pace. In the last five races, his average qualifying position was ninth, his finishing position eleventh, and he had two DNFs.
Lawson, so impressive on his return in Texas, has not been on it since and today starts way back in fifteenth place. He was caught out by Colapinto’s crash and he didn’t get a chance to improve on that fifteenth, but he hasn’t really shown much this weekend.
Haas
We are on Magnussen to finish in the points and he has shown good pace in practice. However, his last flying lap in Q2 had to be aborted when Colapinto crashed, and he has to start from twelfth. The car has the pace, Hulkenberg qualified in ninth, but Magnussen has his work cut out with two faster cars ahead of him. Fingers crossed.
Sauber
What is Zhou doing up in thirteenth place? That is a season’s best with his previous best being fourteenth at Silverstone, where he finished eighteenth. A modified floor may be the answer.
Bottas starts from last place after only qualifying nineteenth, but he had a grid penalty to take. Zhou would need some luck to score the team’s first point of the season, but you never know, this is Las Vegas after all.
Williams
It just never ends for Williams. After a remarkable job to get two cars here, with a package of spares, only for Colapinto to drive his car into the wall and smash it to bits. That’s another few million down the plughole.
The car has shown good pace, at times. They were seventh and eighth in FP3 and things were looking good, but Albon was eliminated in Q1, and Colapinto binned it in Q2 and will start fourteenth, if indeed he does start. The team say that they have enough spares, but that will be a total rebuild and those mechanics must be exhausted.
Everyone was so impressed with Colapinto when he replaced Sargeant, but he has looked careless lately. Even if they do fix the car, the driver will have to pass a medical tomorrow to make sure he is fit to drive.
Aston Martin
Both cars out in Q1 and they look to be the worst car this weekend. Imagine being worse than Sauber.
2024 Las Vegas GP Raceday Summary
If this was a ‘normal’ race then a good bet on Sainz would be my choice. The car seems to have the best race pace and he starts on the front row. However, we are on a street circuit, and a fast street circuit. Any crashes or car break downs and the risk of a safety car, or red flag, is high.
That can turn things upside down. It happened here last year, and it happened in Sao Paulo last time out. The nature of these kind of tracks mean we have to expect the unexpected. For that reason, I will be keeping stakes small and spreading things out a bit.
Race Winner
I have to have a go with Carlos Sainz. Ferrari’s long run pace looks strong and if we do get an uneventful race, He looks in a good position to get another win.
2024 Las Vegas GP raceday tip: 1 point Carlos Sainz to win @ @ 3.50 with Skybet
If we do get a mad race, the list of possible winners is long, but I will have a go with surprise win specialists, Alpine. Gasly is in great form and didn’t get to third place by luck. His odds are ridiculous. We are getting 101.00 and e/w betting down to third place. He is worth a go but check the e/w terms as some firms only go 1-2.
2024 Las Vegas GP raceday tip: 0.5 point e/w Pierre Gasly @ 101.00 (3 places) generally available
I like to have a go at opposing Yuki Tsunoda and Hulkenberg looks a good choice. He is 6-1 vs. Tsunoda in the last seven races and looks an OK price to improve on that.
2024 Las Vegas GP raceday tip: 1 point Nico Hulkenberg to beat Yuki Tsunoda @ 1.80 with Ladbrokes
With conditions being favourable for Mercedes, I like the chances of Lewis Hamilton to get the better of Oscar Piastri. Hamilton felt he had the pace to be on the front row, and Russell proved his point. McLaren on the other hand have underperformed and are not sounding entirely confident about their race pace.
