2024 Qatar GP Raceday Update & Tips – JP
2024 Qatar GP Raceday Preview
George Russell just got pipped for pole by Max Verstappen but he still landed the place part of our e/w bet and we also landed our match bet on Max vs Hamilton. James Punt is looking for more winners this afternoon, check out his 2024 Qatar GP Raceday preview and tips below.
2024 Qatar GP Raceday Update
We missed out on pole with Russell by a mere 0.055 seconds last night, which was frustrating, but the place part of the bet meant we still made a small profit. Of course, Verstappen received a one place penalty for driving too slowly on a cool down lap, and George Russell will start from pole, even though he was second in qualifying. We now, finally, move on to the main event, the Qatar GP.
2024 Qatar GP Raceday: Team-by-Team
Mercedes
A tale of two drivers. Russell has been quicker, considerably quicker, than Hamilton all weekend. Hamilton’s response has not been to get his head down and dig deep to find more performance, but rather to have a strop, rather reminiscent of Kevin the Teenager. We shall just have to wait and see if he makes a proper effort today, but he certainly hasn’t put a shift in so far.
George Russell, on the other hand, has been right up at the sharp end. Just missing out on Sprint pole, coming third in the Sprint race, and was a tiny fraction of being fastest in qualifying proper. There is nothing wrong with the Mercedes, at least on this track.
Straight Line Speed
In the Sprint race, their straight line speed was giving McLaren problems. It took a real team effort between the two McLaren drivers to keep Russell at bay. Norris slowed down to keep Piastri in DRS range, and just out of Russell’s clutches. We never got to see Norris’ true pace or if Russell would have been able to race him. It did show the value of having two team members in close proximity, something that Mercedes do not have.
Hamilton starts sixth, which is not the end of the world, but he has Carlos Sainz behind him, and Sainz is going to be challenging. Hamilton has tended to be much better over a race distance. His average finishing position is three places better than his qualifying position, so on past form, he should make forward progress. He could be an ally for McLaren today.
Qualifying Struggles
Clearly, Hamilton is struggling in qualifying. He cannot drive these ground effect cars right on the edge, but at race pace, he is fine. Any talk about a conspiracy by Mercedes to punish him for leaving is clearly bollocks. It has to be said that his fanboys are totally deluded and they have never recovered from Abu Dhabi in 2021.
Starting from the front is the best place to be. The pole driver has won the first two Qatar GPs , the first sprint race and would have won yesterday’s sprint race, but for Norris gifting the win to Piastri after the final bend. Russell starts as the 2.60 favourite. He starts on the ‘clean’ side of the track, which should help him get a better start, and if he does, he has the clean air, which is very important.
Red Bull
We are used to Red Bull being a one man team. Verstappen was a fraction quicker than Russell yesterday, but over a long lap, there was nothing in it.
Verstappen has not won a dry race since the Spanish GP, thirteen races ago, and he is not in the best car. He really needs the clean air, but starting on the dirty side of the track is not going to help his chances. He also has the two McLarens right behind him, and they are likely to be faster at some point.
Norris starts on the clean side of the track and he will be looking to get the jump on Verstappen, but he is not going to try anything risky, so Verstappen could just muscle Norris into backing off. Perez made Q3 and starts ninth. I can’t see any heroics from him and he has had the tendency to get stuck where he started. He might be able to beat Alonso, but it is hard to see much more than that.
McLaren
Slightly disappointing not to be on pole, but both drivers start ahead of the Ferraris and that is the main objective. They are there to help each other if needed but Norris has been the faster of the two. He starts on the clean side of the track, and he will lead the charge.
Piastri has to stay ahead of the two Ferraris, but that may not be so easy. Leclerc will have more grip off the line, so Piastri may have to get a bit muscular. Ferrari are chasing McLaren and if both crashed out, advantage McLaren.
It will be interesting to see if their late stint pace can pay dividends, but if it is to do so, he needs to keep the car, or cars, in front in range, which of course means hurting the tyres.
Ferrari
Probably qualified where they expected to qualify on this track. Sainz was a little disappointing, having been fourth in every session up to yesterday’s qualifying. Both drivers expect their race pace to be better. Norris does seem to be quicker, but Piastri is beatable.
It will be hard for McLaren to pull off the same kind of stunt that they did in the sprint race, over the longer race distance. Of course, the two Ferrari drivers have been standing on each other’s toes recently, so they need to race nice with each other.
Aston Martin
It was a bit of a surprise to see Alonso as high as eighth in qualifying. The car was a basket case in Vegas and Alonso had not made the top 10 in the first three sessions. Clearly, they found some time with a setup change after the sprint race.
Stroll starts back in fifteenth place. He must be so glad that Perez is still in F1, otherwise everyone would be looking at his performances and asking why is he still in F1. Alonso generally holds his own in the races and he looks good for a points finish. The team are worried about tyre wear being a problem.
Haas
Magnussen just made it into Q3 and starts tenth. His battle is to beat the Alpine of Gasly, who lines up on the clean side of the track in eleventh. That is going to be an epic battle. Magnussen is hard to pass.
Hulkenberg had a technical issue with battery deployment and he is very much out of position, staring back in eighteenth. Expect him to make forward progress.
Alpine
Gasly is running with a new nose and front wing, which is not on Ocon’s car. That doesn’t explain why Ocon starts from the very back, nine places behind his teammate. Gasly has been showing top ten pace so far and he has been in good from in recent races.
Starting on the clean side of the track, he may be able to get the jump on the Haas and I would think that the Alpine has a bit more pace. They were a fraction quicker on the long runs on Friday, but of course, the settings have been changed since then.
Sauber
Strangely competitive this weekend. Starting twelfth and thirteenth gives them a sniff of a points finish, but they are likely to need a bit of luck in terms of attrition from the cars in front. They did not make much impression in the sprint race, which does not bode well. Thay did have a double points finish here last year, which was their best race of the year, so they clearly have got a good handle on this track.
Williams
They have no real pace this weekend. Luckily there are no walls anywhere near the track, so they haven’t smashed the car up, but it is just slow. They have had to beg, steal and borrow spares from the Merecedes Heritage team just to get two cars on track. No wonder they are slow.
2024 Qatar GP Raceday Summary
While the focus will be on the McLaren vs Ferrari battle, and Alpine vs Haas further back, there will be a race for the winner’s trophy between Russell and Verstappen. They are 3-3 across the last six races, but it is Russell who has been quicker for most of the weekend.
Red Bull worked their magic on Verstappen’s car after the sprint race, but now it has to be quick over the race distance. Have they got a one lap flying machine, or a good race car?
We know that the Mercedes is generally a better race car than qualifier and Russell showed good race pace in the sprint. He starts from pole, on the clean side of the track. Overtaking is hard here and Russell looks the obvious pick for the race winner.
2024 Qatar GP Raceday Tip: 2 points George Russell to win the Qatar GP @ 2.63 with BET365
Further back, I am going to have a speculative bet on Nico Hulkenberg. He is 3.25 to finish in the points and it can be done here. Zhou started from nineteenth last year and finished ninth.
We know that the Haas has top 10 pace, he finished seventh yesterday. Obviously, he starts back in eighteenth today and not nineteenth as he did yesterday, but I will have punt on him to use the car’s decent race pace to recover the ground lost in qualifying.
He did a great comeback drive in Canada, finishing eleventh from nineteenth on the grid. He finished ninth in Australia from sixteenth, and tenth from fifteenth in Saudi Arabia, so he can do good recovery drives. Magnussen finished tenth from fifteenth in the other Haas yesterday, so their race pace looks good.
2024 Qatar GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Nico Hulkenberg to finish in the points @ 3.25 with Livescorebet, Unibet, BET365
I have to have something on Sauber today. A points finish might just be too much, but they have been up around twelfth, thirteenth all weekend and with both drivers looking for a new job, they will be keen to put themselves in the shop window with a good performance.
The car has had a new floor fitted in recent races, and also a new front wing, and it is making a difference. Ladbrokes have the two Saubers in a group with Visa RB’s Liam Lawson, Lance Stroll in the Aston Martin, and Williams Alex Albon. That is winnable.
