2024 Abu Dhabi GP Raceday Preview

James Punt landed two nice winners in qualifying and he is looking for more this afternoon. Check out James’ 2024 Abu Dhabi GP Raceday preview below.

2024 Abu Dhabi GP Raceday

McLaren have a stranglehold on the Constructor’s Championship, but they still need to get it over the line.

Past form at this track suggests that they will, and in style. The last nine races here have been won from pole, the other from second, so McLaren has both those bases covered.

Eight of the last ten races here have seen the first and second placed drivers finish in the same order. It has been difficult for those drivers outside of the top five on the grid to make a podium finish. That only happened once since 2014 and that was sixth placed Max Verstappen finishing third.

In 2024, McLaren have had two front row lockouts, both with Norris on pole and Piastri second. In Hungary, the positions were reversed at the finish, thanks to team orders at the time. In Italy, they finished second and third after Piastri overtook Norris on lap one, and Charles Leclerc made his one stop strategy work, to win the race.

Norris has had seven pole position starts so far in 2024 and won just three. He is not an ace pole position converter, but this one looks well set up, especially on this track.

McLaren 

They have been the dominant team this weekend. First and second in all sessions bar FP1, which Piastri sat out, and in which Norris was second. Carlos Sainz has been next best, along with Lewis Hamilton, but he was unlucky in qualifying and starts way back in sixteenth place.

Max ’The Bat’ Verstappen looked set for a good qualifying, but his pace just wasn’t there on the final flying lap. Only twice in the last ten years, has the driver starting fifth finished on the podium. McLaren have found their sweet spot better than anyone else and should ram home their advantage.

Ferrari 

It all went wrong for Charles Leclerc in qualifying. He was already facing a ten-place grid penalty before a disastrous qualifying session, which saw him knocked out in Q2 and finishing in fourteenth place. He will start from nineteenth, after the Williams of Colapinto received a grid penalty of his own, and he starts last.

Ferrari may decide to completely change Leclerc’s car, stick in brand new everything, and turn it up to eleven. The bad news is that this has not been a great venue for ‘come from behind’ drives. Bottas finished fourth for Mercedes from a pit lane start in 2019. Carlos Sainz starts from third and in the last ten years, third place has gone on the finish on the podium six times.

Red Bull 

Both cars made into Q3, albeit with the hapless Perez back in tenth place. Verstappen starts from fourth place, and only twice in the last ten races here has the fourth position driver finished on the podium. Verstappen is on a run of sixth consecutive podium finishes here, but he isn’t in the best car this time. Perez qualified tenth in Texas, and finished seventh, so something similar is in order, at best.

Alpine 

Have become a bit ‘Team Gasly’ in the letter part of the season, and he did it again yesterday, qualifying sixth, but starting fifth, following Hulkenberg’s penalty. Jack Doohan, in the older spec car, starts from a lowly seventeenth place. We have already backed Gasly to finish in the points, for a two point stake. Hopefully he can convert that.

Mercedes 

Many expected better from Mercedes this weekend, but Russell has struggled for pace and starting from sixth place reflects that. There is little to suggest he will be a podium threat today. Hamilton’s last drive for Mercedes doesn’t look like it will be a memorable one. This not a good track to be starting back in sixteenth place.

Haas 

Absolutely flying this weekend. Hulkenberg qualified fourth, but he got a three place penalty for not following the Race Director’s orders. Magnussen had been eighth in the practice sessions, but, not for the first time, he didn’t get it done in qualifying.

The Dane starts from fourteenth, while Hulkenberg is demoted from fourth to seventh. It looks like his quest for a GP podium will have to go on to 2025, and beyond. Hopefully both drivers can have a good race, and end what has been a very good season for the team.

Aston Martin 

Again, Alonso dragged the reluctant Aston into Q3. He starts eighth and will be looking for his fourteenth points finish of the season, although he has found it harder to do lately. Stroll starts back in thirteenth and he has drawn a blank for the last ten races, although he has finished top ten here in three of the last four years.

Sauber 

Finishing the season with a flourish. Zhou was eighth last week, and this weekend it is Bottas who starts from ninth place. Can he hang on and avoid finishing the season without scoring a point for the first time in his career?

Visa RB 

Running a new front wing this weekend and they line up eleventh and twelfth. That reflects their performance in practice. Where they finish may well depend on where the faster cars of Leclerc, Hamilton and Magnussen finish.

Williams 

Start eighteenth and twentieth and their season is not going to end well.

Summary

History suggests that McLaren will get a win, and double podium finish in all likelihood. Norris is a 1.70 shot to make it ten wins in a row from pole here.

2024 Abu Dhabi GP Raceday Tip: 2 point Lando Norris to win @ 1.70 with Unibet, Livescorebet

We have already backed Hulkenberg and Gasly to finish in the points, and both of those look good.

Carlos Sainz makes some appeal to finish on the podium at 1.73, In seven of the last ten races here, the third placed driver on the grid has finished on the podium. Verstappen will be a big threat, of course, and that is just enough to steer me clear. I think the drivers in the lesser teams really need to be starting eighth or better if they are hoping for points.

Norris at 3.00 to set the fastest lap to makes some appeal. He has set five of the last ten, but he will be more concerned with winning the race, and the Constructors’ Championship.

Two More Bets

I will just have two more bets to end the 2024 F1 campaign.

We bet Bottas to win his group last weekend, and he lost out to his teammate. The new floor and front wing introduced last weekend on the Sauber has finally made the car competitive enough to finish in the points.

Zhou did the team a great favour by scoring points last weekend, and Bottas will be desperate to finish what could be his last season in F1 with some points. He has been faster than Lawson in all three sessions in which he ran. Bottas beat Lawson last weekend, and that was the first time he had a semi-competitive car at his disposal.

2024 Abu Dhabi GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Bottas to beat Lawson@ 1.73 with Ladbrokes

Stroll starts from thirteenth place today, ahead of the other three cars in the group. They are Albon, Colapinto and Zhou. Zhou got us beat last weekend, but he starts fifteenth today, after his qualifying position was just seventeenth. The two Williams are struggling to finish races now and are opposable. This looks to be a bit of Stroll vs. Zhou match up.

2024 Abu Dhabi GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lance Stroll to win Ladbrokes Group 4 @ 2.50

There was another that nearly made the list. In six of the last ten races here, the car starting in eleventh place has finished in the points. That hints that odds of 3.00 for Tsunoda to make the top ten are generous.

He has finished fourth and eighth in two of his three races here, with a worst finish of eleventh, so he goes well at this track. The team have provided him with a new front wing this weekend as they are in, a probably forlorn, battle for seventh place. His grid position is flattered by the poor qualifying results for Hamilton and Leclerc, and that is enough to swerve that one.

Ante Post Outlook

It is worth a recap on our Seasonal ante post bets that are still alive and kicking:

1 point e/w Norris to win the WC w/o Verstappen @ 7.50

1 point McLaren to win the Constructors’ Championship @ 7.00

2 points Russell to beat Hamilton @ 2.20

We have had two losers already:

2 points Bottas to beat Hulkenberg @ 1.61

1 point Norris to win the World Championship @ 17.00

That is all for 2024. It’s been long, too long, but profitable. Thanks for reading and see you next season.

-JamesPunt