2024 NFL Regular Season GW16

Thursday night didn’t go to plan for Jan Keys. Both his player prop bets went astray so he is now 52-54 for the season. However, he’s determined to get back in front this weekend, check out Jan’s 2024 NFL Regular Season GW16 preview and picks below.

SATURDAY’S MATCHES

HOUSTON TEXANS (9-5) @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (13-1)

Vegas Line: Kansas -3.5; Total Points 41.5

Jan Keys: Kansas -3; Total Points 43.1

The Kansas City Chiefs continue to win matches. Their latest came in Cleveland, an unusually comfortable 21-7 victory. QB Patrick Mahomes came off with an ankle injury but is back in full training. KC have had some close calls this season but they know how to churn out wins. The line is -3.5, which puts me off backing the Chiefs.

Houston are looking at a Seeding of 3 or 4 in the playoffs so their main aim is to keep their players healthy. A win last week against Miami was a good result without great yardage and Houston will try to improve on their offense for a possible return to Arrowhead in a few weeks.

2024 NFL REGULAR SEASON GW16 TIP: NO BET

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (10-4) @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (9-5)

Vegas Line: Baltimore -6.5; Total Points 45.5

Jan Keys: Baltimore -7.2; Total Points 50.4

This is a big match with top spot in the AFC North at stake and the difference between 3 and 6 in the playoff picture. Baltimore remain one of the best teams in the NFL and although they have had more hiccups than expected this season, I still think they are a touchdown better than Pittsburgh. Last week they had a soft match against the Giants which helped to prepare for tonight’s match.

Pittsburgh have overachieved this season and were easily beaten by Philadelphia last week. All credit to the Steelers for what they have done so far, but teams like Philadelphia and Baltimore are on a different level.

2024 NFL REGULAR SEASON GW16 TIP: BALTIMORE RAVENS -6.5 POINTS

SUNDAY’S MATCHES

LOS ANGELES RAMS (8-6) @ NEW YORK JETS (4-10)

Vegas Line: L.A. Rams -3; Total Points 46

Jan Keys: L.A. Rams -1.7; Total Points 47.5

This is a matchup between a team whose season is over against a team who could be number three seeds in the playoffs. The N.Y. Jets won last week and with two weeks of good yardage, they will be hoping for more free flowing offensive football like they produced against Miami and Jacksonville.

This is the L.A. Rams last away match of the season and they are in must win territory. Last week they won ugly and they would take the same outcome here. The Rams’ rushing game has been good and they will be out to control the match. I’m not sure they would be favourites if the Jets had something to play for but this is an important match up for the Rams so I’m taking them to cover the spread.

2024 NFL REGULAR SEASON GW16 TIP: L.A. RAMS -3 POINTS

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (12-2) @ WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (9-5)

Vegas Line: Philadelphia -3; Total Points 45

Jan Keys: Philadelphia -4.7; Total Points 46.7

Philadelphia are fighting for the number one seeding in the NFC playoffs and the Superbowl is in their sights. They finish the regular season with two soft fixtures so this is their big test. Last weekend they were impressive in beating Pittsburgh.

Washington have a good chance (around 80%) of making the playoffs so this is also a big match for them. They had to work hard for last week’s win in New Orleans by 20-19. They will be looking to avenge their recent defeat in Philadelphia. That day, the Eagles won 26-18. This match should be a close call in the Capitol. No bet.

2024 NFL REGULAR SEASON GW16 TIP: NO BET

NEW YORK GIANTS (2-12) @ ATLANTA FALCONS (7-7)

Vegas Line: Atlanta -10; Total Points 42

Jan Keys: Atlanta -10.2; Total Points 41.8

The Atlanta Falcons still have hopes of making the playoffs, being just half a win behind Tampa Bay, so this is a must win match but they have a bigger task next week in Washington. Atlanta have a strong rushing game and should control this match comfortably. QB Kirk Cousins has been in poor form and he’ll be hoping to build come confidence here.

The New York Giants are currently bottom of the pile and are just dreadful. The main issue again is at quarterback. With No.3 QB Tommy DeVito suffering concussion, they’re now on No.4, Tim Boyle. The end of season can’t come quick enough and even with a 10 point start it’s hard to make a case for them.

2024 NFL REGULAR SEASON GW16 TIP: NO BET

ARIZONA CARDINALS (7-7) @ CAROLINA PANTHERS (3-11)

Vegas Line: Arizona -3.5; Total Points 46.5

Jan Keys: Arizona -5.1; Total Points 43.6

Last week Carolina were favourites to win a match for the first time of the season and they disappointed, going down easily to an injury hit Dallas 30-14. It was a poor result for an improving team and they are still a bit off the pace.

Arizona got their ‘must win the last 4 matches’ run off to a flyer with a comfortable win over New England. With the Cardinals still in ‘Must Win’ mode, I’m going with them to cover here.

2024 NFL REGULAR SEASON GW16 TIP: ARIZONA CARDINALS -3.5 POINTS

CLEVELAND BROWNS (3-11) @ CINCINNATI BENGALS (6-8)

Vegas Line: Cincinnati -7.5; Total Points 47

Jan Keys: Cincinnati -10.2; Total Points 52.4

The Cincinnati Bengals’ season may be over but there is a lot of optimism in this team going forward. For a team with a losing record, QB Joe Burrows and WR Ja’Marr Chase have been great. The line of 7.5 looks high for a divisional match but Cleveland are suffering.

The Browns have lost faith in backup QB Jameis Winston who has high sack and interception numbers, so they turn to No.3 QB Dorian Thompson- Robinson who will be missing RB Nick Chubb. Not an easy start for the QB.

2024 NFL REGULAR SEASON GW16 TIP: NO BET

TENNESSEE TITANS (3-11) @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (6-8)

Vegas Line: Indianapolis -4.5; Total Points 42.5

Jan Keys: Indianapolis -6.8; Total Points 45.2

Not the best of the weekend match ups with both sides struggling this season. Tennessee have dropped QB Will Levis and replaced him with Mason Rudolph who played earlier in the season and is up to speed with the job in hand.

The Indianapolis Colts for the moment are sticking with QB Anthony Richardson but he hasn’t been performing to a high enough standard recently. The Colts will probably be favourites for their final three matches of the season but they are a poor side so I am taking the Titans on the spread.

2024 NFL REGULAR SEASON GW16 TIP: TENNESSEE +4.5 POINTS

DETROIT LIONS (12-2) @ CHICAGO BEARS (4-10)

Vegas Line: Detroit -6.5; Total Points 47

Jan Keys: Detroit -8.5; Total Points 49.7

Detroit’s 11 game winning streak came to an end in Buffalo last week, losing 48-42, but they also lost RB David Montgomery for the season. The Lions now have a long list of injured players but they keep performing.

The Chicago Bears suffered their 7th defeat in a row when losing 30-12 to divisional rivals Minnesota. Optimism was high at the beginning of the season but that was a long time ago now. This team needs to re-evaluate themselves and aim for a good season next year.

2024 NFL REGULAR SEASON GW16 TIP: NO BET

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (12-2) @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (8-6)

Vegas Line: Minnesota -3; Total Points 42.5

Jan Keys: Minnesota -2.1; Total Points 44.1

I believe both these teams have overperformed this season so far and both have this as a must win match for different reasons. The Vikings are hoping for a 1 or 2 seeded playoff berth but are likely to be number 5. Whereas Seattle are currently on a 38% chance of making the playoffs.

Minnesota are on a short week. They comfortably beat Chicago 30-12 on Monday and they came out of that match reasonably unscathed. Seattle were demolished by Minnesota’s divisional rivals Green Bay 30-13 last time with QB Geno Smith picking up an injury, although he is likely to play. No bet.

2024 NFL REGULAR SEASON GW16 TIP: NO BET

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (3-11) @ BUFFALO BILLS (11-3)

Vegas Line: Buffalo -14; Total Points 46.5

Jan Keys: Buffalo -16.2; Total Points 51.7

Buffalo have already wrapped up the Division and are playoff bound. This should be an easy win for them but what we all want to know is will they cover the 14 point spread? Buffalo are in tremendous form and winning in Detroit shows this team has a chance of reaching the Superbowl.

New England are on a four match losing streak with little signs of improvement. The line is set at 14 and there is a good chance of snow producing a rushing game. Both teams have good rushing figures but bad weather usually brings the scoring and yardage down, so I’m taking New England.

2024 NFL REGULAR SEASON GW16 TIP: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +14 POINTS

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (3-11) @ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (2-12)

Vegas Line: Las Vegas -1; Total Points 40

Jan Keys: Level match; Total Points 43.8

This is possibly the worst match of the week with both teams looking to improve their draft pick for next season by losing. Jacksonville backup QB Mac Jones hasn’t been too bad recently and the Jaguars have had a tough schedule.

Las Vegas have lost 10 in a row and despite a close call in Kansas, have nothing else on their CV to get excited about. The Raiders welcome back QB Aidan O’Connell for this match, which doesn’t affect the line. Hard to pick a winner in this non-event.

2024 NFL REGULAR SEASON GW16 TIP: NO BET

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (6-8) @ MIAMI DOLPHINS (6-8)

Vegas Line: Miami -1.5; Total Points 46

Jan Keys: Miami -1.3; Total Points 44.1

Two very good sides at their best but both have had very difficult seasons and both have little chance of making the playoffs. Sadly for the 49ers, they have been hit by key injuries throughout the season and the current NFC champions haven’t been able to gather any momentum. San Francisco have a depleted rushing game and will hopefully rely on passing and a strong Defence.

Miami have also not had a great season and currently have their QB and star WR not on the same page. Miami are a good side but they have come up short too many times this season against the better teams. Last week’s loss to Houston ended their slim playoff hopes. Both teams have potential for next season but I have no opinion who will win this one.

2024 NFL REGULAR SEASON GW16 TIP: NO BET

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (8-6) @ DALLAS COWBOYS (6-8)

Vegas Line: Tampa Bay -4; Total Points 48

Jan Keys: Tampa Bay -2.6; Total Points 50.1

Although Dallas’ season was over when QB Dak Prescott was injured in week nine and the Cowboys suffered humiliating defeats at home to Philadelphia and Houston, this team have won three out of their last four to bring a little confidence back into this team. I shouldn’t go to overboard as they are a long way off from where they want to be, but small steps and all that.

Tampa Bay are projected to be seeded No.4 in the playoffs, all they have to do now is win matches. Easy right! They are currently on a winning streak of four and have had some comfortable wins, albeit mainly against soft opponents. Dallas would also fall into that category. QB Baker Mayfield starred last week against the Chargers and is in a rich vein of form.

2024 NFL REGULAR SEASON GW16 TIP: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -4 POINTS

Make sure to keep an eye on our twitter feed for NFL and NCAAF market movers.

-JanKeys