2025 College Football Championship Semi-Finals

Our man Jan Keys went 1-2 in his last college football preview. It has been a tough season overall but there is every chance we could finish on a real high. At the start of the season Jan recommended 5 point outright bets on Penn State at 22/1 and Notre Dame at 25/1, so we will definitely have at least one team in the final. First up though is the final four, check out Jan’s 2025 College Football Championship Semi-Finals previews and picks below.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-1) vs Penn State Nittany Lions (13-2)

Kick Off Time: Friday 10th January, 01:00 .

Venue: The Capital One Orange Bowl, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami FL.

Vegas Line: Notre Dame -1 Point

Jan Keys Ratings: Notre Dame -5 points

Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish come into this semi-final with an impressive 13-1 season record. Their only loss came way back in Week 2 when they were 30 point favorites and lost 16-14 to Northern Illinois. Since then, they have won 12 matches in a row.

This season, they have a 6-0 record when playing other seeded teams:

Texas A&M (20) Won 23-13; Louisville (15) Won 31-24; Navy (24) Won 51-14; Army (19) Won 49-14; Indiana (10) Won 27-17; Georgia (2) Won  23-10

Penn State

The Nittany Lions enter this Semi Final match with a 13-2 season record. Their two losses were against very good teams, a 20-13 defeat to Ohio State (4) and 45-37 reversal vs Oregon (1)

This season’s matches against seeded teams give them a 3-2 record:

Illinois (19) Won 21-7; Ohio State (4) Lost 20-13; Oregon (1) Lost 45-37; SMU (11) Won 38-10; Boise State (3) Won 31-14

Verdict

This is virtually a “pick em” match with the Irish 1 point favorites, but I’m definitely favoring Notre Dame. Their 23-10 win over Georgia was impressive and Georgia are a quality outfit.

Penn State easily beat Boise State (3) to reach this stage and they were a fake number three team as Penn State started 11.5 point favorites. This will be a much tougher test and I believe Notre Dame can cover the 1 point spread.

2025 College Football Championship Semi-Finals Pick: NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH -1 POINT

Ohio State Buckeyes (12-2) Vs Texas Longhorns (13-2)

Kick Off Time: Saturday 11th January, 01:00

Venue: The Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, AT&T Stadium. Arlington, Texas.

Vegas Line: Ohio State -6 points

Jan Keys Ratings: Ohio State -6 points

Ohio State

The Buckeyes come into this game with a 12-2 record. Their two defeats were narrow, losing 32-31 at Oregon (3) and a 13-10 defeat vs Michigan.

They have a 4-1 record in this season’s matches against seeded teams, including revenge against Oregon.

Oregon (3) Lost 32-31; Penn State (3) Won 20-13; Indiana (5) Won 38-15; Tennessee (9) Won 42-17; Oregon (1) Won 41-21.

Texas Longhorns

The Longhorns come into the match with a 13-2 record, their two losses were both against Georgia.

This season Texas have played 8 matches against seeded teams (6-2 record):

Michigan (10) Won 31-12; Oklahoma (18) Won 34-3; Georgia (5) Lost 30-15; Vanderbilt (25) Won 27-24; Texas A&M (20) 17-7; Georgia (5) Lost 22-19 OT; Clemson (12) Won 38-24; Arizona State (4) Won 39-31 2OT

Verdict

Both myself and the Vegas oddsmakers make this an Ohio State -6 line. Ohio State had a very impressive victory over Oregon 41-12 last time, whereas Texas struggled when -13.5 favorites to beat Arizona State in overtime.

Before the quarter finals, Oregon would’ve only been 2 points favorites so there was an extra 4 point shift based on QF performances. With the match being played in Texas, I’m going to just take the Longhorns, although it’s small margins.

2025 College Football Championship Semi-Finals Pick:  TEXAS LONGHORNS +6 POINTS

Make sure to follow us on X and Bluesky to get regular NFL and NCAAF previews, picks and market movers.

-JanKeys