2025 NFL Conference Championships Picks

The Divisional round went pretty much as expected, apart from a surprise win for the Washington Commanders. Just four franchises remain standing in the fight for the Superbowl, check out Jan Keys’ 2025 NFL Conference Championships previews and picks below.

NFC: WASHINGTON COMMANDERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Date & Time: January 26th 20:00 2025

Vegas Line: Philadelphia -6 Total Points 48

Jan Keys Ratings: Philadelphia -8.5 Total Points 50.3

Player Prop Lines: Over / Under Yards

QB Passing Yards: Jalen Hurts (Phi) 181.5; Jayden Daniels (Was) 221.5.

Rushing Yards (Phi): Saquon Barkley 130.5; Jalen Hurts 30.5; Kenneth Gainwell 10.5.

Rushing Yards (Was): Jayden Daniels 54.5; Brian Robinson Jr 36.5; Austin Ekeler 20.5.

Receiving Yards (Phi): AJ Brown 60.5; DaVonta Smith 46.5; Dallas Goedert 37.5; Saquon Barkley 12.5; Jahan Dotson 2.5.

Receiving Yards (Was): Terry McLaurin 63.5; Dyami Brown 41.5; Zach Ertz 29.5; Austin Ekeler 23.5; Olamide Zaccheaus 21.5; Brian Robinson Jr 6.5.

Match Overview

This should be a great match up between two NFC East teams who have already played eachother twice. In the first match Philadelphia won 26-18 and in the reverse fixture Washington won 36-33 .

The big issue with Philadelphia is the fact QB Jalen Hurts is not fully fit and may be limited in how much he can run the ball, one of his biggest assets.

Philadelphia have had two home playoff matches so far. Firstly, they beat Green Bay in the Wild Card round 22-10 and last week they beat the L.A. Rams 28-22 in an uninspired victory. What was most worrying for the Eagles in these two matches was that they only passed for 121 and 65 yards.

Luckily for the Eagles, they have the insanely talented Saquon Barkley as their running back and he often rushes for over 100 yards. Philadelphia were saved last week by their rushing game, scoring 3 of their 4 TDs on the ground. Another positive for Philadelphia is they have the Number One Defence in the NFL.

Commanders

Washington started the season as one of the outsiders after a 4-13 record last year earned them the No.2 draft pick. They used their pick well, bringing in Heisman Trophy winning QB Jayden Daniels.

Daniels seems to be improving with every match and is currently going toe to toe with the big gun QBs. Washington have had two away fixtures in the play offs so far. Firstly, they played well to beat Tampa Bay 23-20 then last week, when 10 point ‘dogs, they played their best game of the season to beat NFC’s number one seeds the Detroit Lions 45-31.

It was a great offensive display, both on the ground and through the air. Their gameplan will be to play the same explosive way on offense and the key to reaching the Superbowl for the Commanders will be to limit Saquon Barkley to as few yards as possible. Easier said than done.

Spread Selection

Philadelphia have home advantage and they are 6 points favourites. My Ratings suggest they will cover this number. However, I have two reasons not to follow my ratings. Firstly, Jalen Hurts isn’t fully fit and he is a key player and secondly, Philadelphia didn’t play particularly well last week, whereas Washington played their best game all season. This is a tough result to call so we’ll focus on some prop bets.

2025 NFL Conference Championships Pick: No Bet

Player Prop Bets

With Jalen Hurts not fully fit, Philadelphia tend to rely on Running Back Barkley to hit the big numbers. Washington don’t seem to have the answers to stop Barkley, whose two matches against the Commanders this season have produced 146 and 150 yards.

2025 NFL Conference Championships Pick: Saquon Barkley Over 130.5 Rushing Yards

Dallas Goedert has been playing well in recent weeks and has racked up 47 and 56 yards receiving in his two playoff matches, beating the spread in both. The reason I am going under is that last week he suffered an ankle injury and didn’t train on Wednesday. If fully fit he would probably be favoured to cover, but he isn’t fully fit.

2025 NFL Conference Championships Pick: Dallas Goedert Under 37.5 Receiving Yards

Austin Ekeler is used as a Running Back and a Receiver. His Receiver figures this season in matches he played in are: 41, 26, 20, 2, 89, 7, 41, 6, 3, 47, 30, 22, 47 and 52 (8 Over 6 Under).

On his last visit to Philadelphia Ekeler had 8 carries for 89 yards.

2025 NFL Conference Championships Pick: Austin Ekeler Over 23.5 Receiving Yards

AFC: BUFFALO BILLS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Time & Date: January 26th 22:30 2025

Vegas Line: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 Total Points 48

Jan Keys Ratings: Buffalo -1.7 Total Points 50.1

Player Prop Lines: Over /Under Yards

QB Passing Yards: Patrick Mahomes (KC) 253.5 Josh Allen 228.5 (Buf)

Rushing Yards (KC): Isiah Pacheco 35.5; Kareem Hunt 32.5; Patrick Mahomes 24.5; Xavier Worthy 2.5.

Rushing Yards (Buf): James Cook 54.5; Josh Allen 47.5.

Receiving Yards (KC): Travis Kelce 69.5; Xavier Worthy 49.5; Marquise Brown 34.5; DeAndre Hopkins 24.5; Noah Gray 11.5; Samaje Perine 8.5.

Receiving Yards (Buf): Khalil Shakir 55.5; Dalton Kincaid 33.5; Keon Coleman 18.5; Amari Cooper 16.5; Mack Hollins 14.5; Dawson Knox 13.5.

Match Overview

Kansas City are looking at making their third Superbowl in a row. There’s no denying that it would be an amazing achievement if they pull it off.

However, according to my team rankings and player ratings, the Chiefs don’t come out favorably against many of the top teams. Being seeded one in the AFC gave them a bye in the Wild Card round, then last weekend they went into the match as 8 point favorites against Houston and won 23-14.

The scoreline didn’t tell the full story as Houston clearly beat KC on yardage 336 -212 and dominated for much of the game. Even more worrying for Kansas is their rushing game, or to be more accurate lack of a rushing game.

Houston along with many other teams and fans, feel Kansas have been getting the rub of the green on crucial refereeing calls. Will their luck run out this Sunday? Most of the U.S. hope so.

Bills

Buffalo were fortunate to make it to the Conference Final after scraping past Baltimore in a thriller. I’m not going to go too much into how unlucky Baltimore were but will reflect on the achievement of Buffalo to reach this AFC Final.

Although RB James Cook is better than anyone Kansas have, he still ranks only 8th in my rushers list and Buffalo generally only use him and QB Josh Allen, so he is probably lower.

This looks like it will be a passing fest and a Mahomes v Allen match up. Although Mahomes knows how to win matches, I have him rated only 18th in the League this season with Josh Allen rated 2nd.

Punters may laugh at the ratings but Mahomes has been sacked 39 times and intercepted 11 times, whereas Allen has been sacked 17 times and intercepted 6 times. Going by the bare numbers, we have to back the Bills on the spread.

2025 NFL Conference Championships Pick: BUFFALO +1.5 POINTS

PLAYER PROP SELECTIONS

Although Kansas City only had 50 yards rushing last weekend it’s a bit deceptive as they had -26 yards to the total. So Hunt (44) Pacheco (18) & Mahomes (14) scored slightly better. If on a bad rushing week Hunt scores 44 yards, how many is he going to get on a better week?

This season, Hunt’s Rushing Yards are: 44, 20, 55, 45, 16, 15, 68, 60, 35, 106, 59, 78, 102, 69. (11 Over 3 Under).

Kareem Hunt Over 32.5 Rushing Yards

Travis Kelce is the most famous Tight End in the NFL, I can’t think of why? To be fair, he is in excellent form but the line was 51.5 last weekend and today it’s 69.5 which is the highest it has been all season.

This season’s Travis Kelce Receiving Yards are: 117, 84, 30, 27, 45, 68, 62, 8, 64, 100, 90, 17, 70,89, 30, 5, 34. (6 Over 11 Under)

Travis Kelce Under 69.5 Receiving Yards

With Ray Davis being questionable through concussion, it should mean less sharing of the workload for Buffalo’s No.1 Running Back. James Cook is in great form and has every chance of covering the 54.5 yards line.

Last 5 matches (excluding Week 19, soft match): 67, 120, 53, 100, 105. (4 Over 1 Under)

2025 NFL Conference Championships Pick: James Cook Over 54.5 Rushing Yards

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-JanKeys