2025 Cheltenham Festival Favourites – Lump Or Lay?

by Dave Stevos | Mar 6, 2025

2025 Cheltenham Festival Favourites – Lump Or Lay?

Less than a week to go until the greatest show in horse racing and in this preview, we are going to change tack. Usually, Dave Stevos is interested in horses at big prices but here he’s going to assess the chances of some the hottest 2025 Cheltenham Festival Favourites including Majborough, Galopin Des Champs, Teahupoo and a few more. So should you lump, or should you lay? Keep reading to find out.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – Kopek Des Bordes

Form: 1-11

Back Odds: 2.02

Lay Odds: 2.10

This has not been a good race for Willie Mullins since he racked up a Rich Ricci hat-trick between 2013 and 2015 with Champagne Fever, Vautour and Douvan. He has only won it once since, with Klassical Dream in 2019. He has a host of horses entered this year and his leading hope looks to be Kopek Des Bordes.

A son of No Risk At All with a regal French pedigree, he was purchased at the Tattersalls Derby Sale in 2023 for a cool 130k. He has had three starts so far. His only run last season came at Fairyhouse in a bumper on heavy ground and he hosed up.

His maiden hurdle win at Leopardstown’s Xmas meeting was far from straightforward. He raced keenly and didn’t jump well at all but his engine got him out of trouble and he won fairly comfortably despite doing plenty wrong.

DRF

I wasn’t at the Dublin Racing Festival but by all accounts, Kopek Des Bordes was pretty unruly in the prelims. At the start of the race itself you could see Paul Townend was desperate to drop him in just behind the leaders and for the first mile, the plan seemed to be working. He jumped better than he did on debut too.

By the time they jumped the fourth last Kopek had more or less pulled himself to the front and when the loose horse Eastern Legend came up alongside him, it lit him up and he surged to the front. He jumped the last hurdle beautifully and he pulled clear to win by a long way, never seemingly coming off the bridle.

What Did He Beat?

Did he beat much? I’m not too sure and he seemed to be very well suited by the soft ground at Leopardstown. The ground could be very different at Cheltenham and if he gets upset before the race and doesn’t race evenly, it’ll be a lot harder for him to repeat what he did in Dublin.

Workahead, William Munny and Romeo Coolio should provide much sterner opposition and I’m not sure this is the penalty kick that some are making it out to be. That being said, he obviously does have a lot of ability and if he behaves pre-race, I would not be rushing to lay him. However, if he does get buzzed up beforehand, I do think he would be worth opposing. This is a raceday decision, so I’ll sit on the fence for now.

2025 Cheltenham festival Favourites – Lump Or Lay: Kopek Des Bordes Lay @ 2.10 only if unruly in prelims

Arkle Chase – Majborough

Form: 1-31-11

Back Odds: 1.65

Lay Odds: 1.67

The first plus for this horse is who trains him – Willie Mullins has won six of the last ten renewals of this race.

Secondly, as far as statistics go, he ticks most of the right boxes. He’s run twice over fences, winning both starts. He has run at Cheltenham before and won, and he has won at Grade 1 level over both hurdles and fences.

However, the one thing that is a concern statistically is his age. Since the year 2000, only two horses have managed to win this race at five years old, Well Chief in 2004 and Voy Por Ustedes in 2006. That is not an encouraging stat for Majborough enthusiasts.

The Eye Test

So, does Majborough pass the all-important eye test? Well there is no doubt that he has won both his chase starts impressively. However, he was more or less allowed to dominate in those races and he did put in a couple of iffy leaps in the middle part of his Grade 1 win at Leopardstown, so you can pick holes in his performances.

The strength of opposition is worth considering too. The two biggest threats look to be L’Eau du Sud and Jango Baie. The former horse has already won four times over fences, including over C&D, so he has a big experience edge. Jango Baie came unstuck on bottomless ground at Sandown last month but he won impressively around here on his chase debut, albeit over a longer trip.

At the prices, I think Majborough is worth opposing. He is unlikely to be allowed an uncontested lead here and if his jumping is put under pressure, there could be a mistake or two in him. L’Eau du Sud is no mug and Jango Baie is a realistic threat too so at odds of 1.67, lay Majborough.

2025 Cheltenham festival Favourites – Lump Or Lay: Majborough Lay @ 1.67

Champion Hurdle – Constitution Hill

Form: 111/1111/1-11

Back Odds: 1.74

Lay Odds: 1.76

News broke on Tuesday that Brighterdaysahead would be heading to the Champion Hurdle, but whether Lossiemouth will remains to be seen. Fair play to Gigginstown for making that decision but for me, Constitution Hill is going to be extremely difficult to beat.

A race fit Lossiemouth was beaten fair and square by Constitution Hill, who lacked a run, at Kempton and she took a horrible fall on her last start at Leopardstown. Brighterdaysahead is being proclaimed as the second coming of Samcro after beating State Man by 0.75l at Punchestown and winning at Leopardstown when the race was set up for her by a pacemaker.

Course Concerns

Now, she is undoubtedly a talented mare but she had zero excuses when Golden Ace lowered her colours at the Festival last season and she just may not be comfortable on the Cheltenham undulations.

There are no such worries with Constitution Hill. He remains undefeated after ten starts, he is three from three at Cheltenham and he is a two time Festival winner. His leap at the last here in January was a bit alarming but he was winning easily and it was probably just a momentary lapse in concentration.

A lot has been made of his issues over the last couple of years but Nicky Henderson has treated him with kid gloves and I suspect we might see a scintillating display here on Tuesday. Odds of 1.76 look more than fair and for me, Constitution Hill looks a proper lump job.

2025 Cheltenham festival Favourites – Lump Or Lay: Constitution Hill Lump @ 1.76

Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase – Ballyburn

Form: 11/2111-1121

Back Odds: 2.34

Lay Odds: 2.48

First of all, it has to be said that this son of Flemensfirth has a monstrous engine. He can sometimes race a bit keenly but more often than not, he finishes out his races extremely well and he did exactly that when hosing up in the 2m5f novice hurdle at last year’s Festival.

He jumped just okay on his chasing debut at Punchestown over 2m3f and Mullins decided to find out if he could possibly be an Arkle horse by sending him across the water to face Sir Gino in the 2m Wayward Lad Chase at Kempton’s Christmas meeting. The answer was an emphatic no, as he was outclassed and outjumped by his English rival who scooted home by over seven lengths.

Back Up In trip

Ballyburn stepped back up in trip at the DRF and looked more comfortable. However, he was repeatedly outjumped by Croke Park, including at the last fence, and it was only his superior engine that got him the win as he pulled clear on the flat to win by five lengths.

Ballyburn will tackle three miles for the first time under rules here. He won a point-to-point at the trip but this will be a different test altogether. The fact that he races keenly is a worry for his backers at this distance and his stablemate Dancing City is proven over three miles, so when push comes to shove up the hill, if Ballyburn didn’t settle early he might just get found out.

There’s been a lot of positive talk about Better Days Ahead in the lead up to the Festival and Gorgeous Tom could be another potential fly in the ointment stepping up to 3m given how strongly he finished off behind Croke Park on his last start at Fairyhouse. At the prices, Ballyburn looks worth taking on.

2025 Cheltenham festival Favourites – Lump Or Lay: Ballyburn Lay @ 2.48

Stayers’ Hurdle – Teahupoo

Form: 1112/1119/61134/11-12

Back Odds: 2.56

Lay Odds: 2.82

Only for Davy Russell, Teahupoo would be going for a hat-trick in this race. In 2023 he was beaten less than a length into second by Sire Du Berlais after being given a pretty dismal ride and to add insult to injury, he was subsequently demoted to third.

Since that defeat, and another reversal at the Punchestown Festival a month later, Teahupoo has raced four times. Last year, he won three from three. His seasonal reappearance in 2023-24 came in the Hatton’s Grace and he won that. He then went on to win this race and followed up at Punchestown, establishing himself as the top dog in this division.

This season, Elliott is following the same blueprint. He bumped into the speedier Lossiemouth in the Hatton’s Grace in December and he swerved Leopardstown at Christmas and the DRF. Home By The Lee, Rocky’s Diamond and Lucky Place are all viable threats but Gordon Elliott will have Teahupoo trained to the minute and if he is in the same form as last year, he’s going to be very difficult to beat. Lump away.

2025 Cheltenham festival Favourites – Lump Or Lay: Teahupoo LUMP @ 2.56

Gold Cup – Galopin Des Champs

Form: 12P61/111F1/1112/3111-2311

Back Odds: 1.57

Lay Odds: 1.59

This is an easy one. On what he has shown on his last two starts, Galopin Des Champs is going to be extremely difficult to beat. The reigning, defending, two-time Cheltenham Gold Cup champion is three from four at the Festival and he fell with the race at his mercy the one time he didn’t win.

In 2023 he hosed up by seven lengths in this race, beating Bravemansgame into second. Last year he won by a narrower margin but he still had over three lengths to spare from Gerri Colombe. The only realistic threat looks to be this season’s King George winner Banbridge, but will he stay the 3m2f around Cheltenham?

Poor Record For King George Winners

For me, that is far from guaranteed. If you look back at how recent King George winners have performed in this race, it doesn’t make for good reading for those who fancy Banbridge. Hewick (fell), Bravemansgame (2nd & 5th), Tornado Flyer (pulled up), Frodon (5th) and Clan Des Obeaux (5th & 8th) all came up short when they ran in the big one, the stiffer track and extra two furlongs finding them out.

Banbridge is also totally ground dependent, unlike Galopin Des Champs, so if it rains he probably won’t even run. The reigning Champ is also tried and tested over C&D. While there is no such thing as a certainty in racing, especially when the horses have to jump 22 fences, if Galopin is in the same form as he has been at Leopardstown the last twice, he’s as close to a certainty as you are ever going to get. Lump.