2025 Saudi Arabia GP Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Saudi Arabia GP betting preview. Bahrain was tough going but surely things will turn around soon.

2025 Saudi Arabia GP

It was another poor weekend betting wise in Bahrain. We didn’t enjoy much luck. The two Williams’ drivers had the pace for points but they didn’t get lucky with the safety car and Sainz was ultimately forced to retire after a collision with Tsunoda. Albon just got stuck in a DRS train and ended up twelfth. Kimi Antonelli was quicker than Verstappen, but he too lost out with the safety car.

Norris had a dreadful weekend with a mistake ridden qualifying, overshooting his grid box at the start of the race and getting a five second penalty. He recovered to finish third, but it was a far from good weekend. The only positive was that his World Championship lead has extended from one point to three.

The last leg of the triple header is this weekend’s Saudi Arabian GP. The Jeddah Corniche Circuit was first used in 2021. Lewis Hamilton won it in 2021, but the last three years have all been Red Bull wins, two for Verstappen and one for Perez.

The 2025 Saudi Arabia GP Track

A very fast, low downforce, street circuit. Aerodynamic efficiency will be rewarded. You need low drag for the fast flowing corners, but also enough grip for the two slow corners and to look after the tyres is the fast curves.

There are twenty seven corners, but only five are worthy of the name, the rest are really just curves. The emphasis is being fast through the many fast, flowing curves. There are only three big braking events. The track has three DRS zones. It is the second fastest track after Monza, but this is a street circuit with little room for error. Accidents tend to be large and race ending.

Overtaking is possible but the race has tended to end up with the top 10 on the grid, filling eight of the top ten places at the end of the race. In each of the four races here, only two drivers per race have moved up from outside the top 10 and into the points. The pole position driver has won three of the four races here and the winner has always come from the front two rows.

Driver Records

In terms of driver records, Verstappen has never finished outside of the top two places. Caros Sainz has always finished in the points, as has Hamilton, Leclerc. Ocon and Gasly have both had three top eight finishes. Oliver Bearman was seventh on his F1 debut when standing in for Sainz last year. George Russell has finished top six for the last three years, beating Hamilton each time.

On the downside, Lance Stroll has never made the top ten. Tsunoda is pointless, as is Albon. The average DNF rate is 3.25. with at least two DNFs every year. This is another floodlit race. Like last weekend, FP2 is the most representative practice session.

Pirelli are bringing their three softest compounds for this weekend. The tarmac here is smooth and grippy so tyre wear is medium to low. The high likelihood of a safety car means more than one stop is possible, but if not tyre management could be an issue.

The Weather Forecast

Another track in the middle east so we should expect hot conditions. All three days will see hazy sunshine with temperatures around 34 degrees, with no chance of rain and a modest breeze. It will remain warm under the lights, so it will be quite testing for the drivers.

2025 Saudi Arabia GP: Team-by-Team

McLaren

They have had the pole, race win and fastest lap in three of the four races so far, with just the Japanese GP eluding them. They have a fifty eight point lead in the Constructors’ Championship and Norris leads the Drivers’ Championship from Piastri by just three points.

The momentum is very much with Piastri, who has two race wins to Norris’ one and had two of the last three pole positions. He has also finished ahead of Norris here in his first two years with McLaren. Norris has admitted to a lack of confidence and that is not good. Piastri is currently putting him away and the pressure is all on Norris.

Negative Norris

I have read a lot of comments on Norris this week. He would get a psychiatrist confused reading his interviews. I like his honesty, I don’t think he is that far off, but he is very negative right now. He knows he is in a great car, but he is not quite at one with it. That becomes a soap opera. Piastri just says, yeah, the car can be a bit tricky, but otherwise great.

The only thing Norris has said that is of importance for predicting his likely performance is “It’s complicated. I’m not doubting myself, even though sometimes it may seem like that. It’s just something is not gelling. Something is not clicking. Therefore I don’t feel comfortable when I’m in the car. I’m confident, I know I’ve got what it takes. But just not confident.”

It’s like word soup…but he acknowledges that he is not confident. Nobody performs at their best when they are not confident.

Mercedes 

George Russell has scored three podiums from the first four races and is closing in on Verstappen in third place in the Championship. He has gone well here for Mercedes, beating Hamilton every year and having three top six finishes.

Antonelli had a difficult race in Bahrain, but not due to any fault of his own. A three-stop strategy was scuppered by the safety car deployment, but his weekend had gone well to that point.

Their qualifying pace is good and Russell is backing that up with solid races. This will be the best car he has had in Saudi Arabia so another podium has to be on the menu. Antonelli raced in F2 here last year, finishing with two sixth places but he is on the back foot experience wise. That said, Bearman got seventh place here as a stand in driver on his F1 debut, so it can’t be the most technical track on the calendar.

Red Bull 

Had a poor weekend in Bahrain. The car was very difficult to drive and far from competitive. Verstappen minimised the damage by making up places under the safety car deployment, but from being right on top in Japan, to struggling in Bahrain shows what a strange season they are having.

At least they got both cars into the top 10 in qualifying and the race for the first time in 2025. This track may suit them more than Bahrain as there are so few braking events, something that was a big problem last weekend. However, the track temperatures may be a bit high for them, but then again, the track is not as abrasive as it was in Bahrain.

Red Bull are unlikely to be as good as they were in Japan, but not as bad as in Bahrain. The car can be quick, and Verstappen is the best driver on the grid, but the sweet spot is small. It is not a happy camp despite the Japanese win. Verstappen is always going to be thereabouts, but they are very hard to predict right now. The low tyre degradation will be of benefit compared to last week’s track.

Ferrari 

Showed better than expected race pace in Bahrain, finishing fourth and fifth, but they were never really in contention, and probably helped by Antonelli having a bit of a ‘mare strategy wise. Hamilton struggled in qualifying, as is his ways these days, but recovered in the race to finish fifth. He says that he is having to adopt his driving style to suit the Ferrari, and that might be easier over a race distance than in qualifying.

The new floor was a small step forward, but they remain off the pace of McLaren and Mercedes. If Red Bull find their sweet spot, than they are back in fourth. Ferrari have gone quite well here with a couple of podiums for Leclerc and one for Sainz, but they have been good one year, and poor the next. If that sequence continues, they are due a poor one this weekend.

Leclerc says that the car is OK, just lacking grip and downforce. On a lower downforce track, that may suit them better than the last two.

Haas 

Now sitting one place ahead of Williams in the Constructors’ table, in fifth place. It was a strange weekend for the team. Qualifying was a disaster with Bearman in last place and Ocon in the wall in Q2.

In the race, Bearman made a great start, making up five places on lap one, and then the safety car fell at just the right time for both drivers. Bearman finished tenth, Ocon eighth.

Watch out for Esteban Ocon this weekend. He was very quick for Alpine around this track with finishes of 4/6/8/13 and qualifying form figures of 9/5/7/17, so he has made up places every year.

Williams 

We were well invested in the two Williams’ drivers and of course they got no breaks in the race and ended up with a DNF and a twelfth place for Albon. Double stacking under the safety car dropped him out of the top ten, and from then on in, he was stuck in the DRS train, unable to move up from twelfth.

The pace was there, but you need a bit of luck, and they didn’t get any. Sainz made a great start but was too hard on the tyres. The safety car didn’t work for him and then his car was mortally damaged in a collision with Tsunoda.

Aston Martin 

Sinking without trace. The team are already saying that they are holding back on upgrades as they look towards 2026’s regulation changes. I suppose having spent a fortune on upgrades that failed for the last three years, leaves them wary of wasting even more money.

Alonso is doing his best but that is only good enough for 13th-14th in qualifying, and their race pace isn’t going to move them into the points. The Saudis are shareholders in the team, so this weekend could be a bit awkward. Maybe the race stewards will be kind?

Racing Bulls 

Last week was another weekend where things have just got away from the team. They have only scored seven points and are just one point off last place. The car has looked best of the rest, at least in qualifying, at times, but they are not cashing in.

Liam Lawson has been moved from pillar to post, which doesn’t help, but it must be said that he is failing. His qualifying performances are only marginally better than he was in the Red Bull, and his race performances are messy.

He picked up two penalties during the race and he is getting a bit of a reputation for hitting other cars in close racing. He said that the only way he could pass was to make lunges at the corners. Lawson is not good enough to make lunges without hitting people, and so it proved.

They didn’t get lucky with the safety car, but things had already gone south. Underachieving.

Alpine 

Finally got some points on the board. Gasly qualified in fifth and started fourth after Mercedes’ penalties. He was never going to stay there but he very nearly held on to sixth place, but lost that to Verstappen at the death. Jack Doohan only just missed out on reaching Q3 but he went backwards in the race, picking up a track limits penalty.

Alpine went really well here in the first three years. Finishing fourth in 2021, sixth in 2022 and eighth and ninth in 2023. Esteban Ocon was the top scorer all three times. Last year saw him only manage thirteenth, but he did only qualify seventeenth. It doesn’t make a lot of sense that an underpowered car was so competitive on a very fast track, but there you have it.

Alpine were good in testing in Bahrain, and quick again for the race weekend. That makes sense. Gasly has been close to the points, or at least Q3, in other races, but they are hard to trust. Mind you, they do know how to get a good result here, and Gasly has had three top nine finishes. He joins the long list for a top 10 finish.

Sauber

There is a bit of qualifying pace for Hulkenberg, but their race pace is poor. Hulkenberg has had some horrible starts and it is hard to see much merit in the team.

2025 Saudi Arabia GP Summary

With this race being very grid position dependant, it is better to wait until raceday, unless the ante post odds are good enough to go with now.

McLaren remain the team to beat. They overcame a poor track record in Bahrain to get the pole, race win and fastest lap for Piastri. They were very fast when the track was at its hottest, but things got closer under the flood lights.

We could well see something similar this weekend. The track won’t be cool, but like last weekend, 30+ degrees under the lights and that should be enough for the McLaren to hold the advantage.

Street Circuit

With this being a street circuit, and a very fast one, we have to expect the safety car to play a part. As we saw last weekend, and in Australia, that can throw a curve ball into the mix, but the best car still won both those races.

There have been seven safety cars here in the first four years. In 2021 there were two safety cars, six virtual safety cars, and two red flags. It can be that nuts, but the pole sitter still won.

Norris is having a mini crisis as he struggles with his self-belief. He has been second best to Piastri here, with the Aussie 2-0 in qualifying and the races. Piastri has been the best qualifier of 2025 so far, although he is 2-2 with Norris. The momentum is with Piastri and he looks to be much less mistake prone. He has converted both his poles into wins and the pole sitter here is three from four.

2025 Saudi Arabia GP Tip: 2 points Oscar Piastri to win @ 2.40 with Ladbrokes

Esteban Ocon is something of a track specialist and he has two top ten finishes from the first four races of 2025. His qualifying performances have not been great, averaging just 15.5 in qualifying. If he qualified fifteenth on Saturday, the omens are good.

The driver starting fifteenth has finished in the points every time in Jeddah. Haas have managed to score points here for the last three years and they have scored points in the last three races this year, two of them double points finishes.

2025 Saudi Arabia GP Tip: 1 point Esteban Ocon to finish in the points @ 3.75 with Betvictor, Hills

That will do for now. Gasly is just 2.20 for a points finish which is short enough. There will be more opportunities along the way.

-JamesPunt