2025 Miami GP Sprint Race Preview & Tip – JP
2025 Miami GP Sprint Race Preview
We came within 0.045 seconds of two winners in Sprint Qualifying but we had to settle for one winner, Hadjar to reach Q3. Hopefully Lady Luck will be more generous over the rest of this weekend to James Punt. His 2025 Miami GP Sprint Race preview is below.
2025 Miami GP Sprint Race
No great luck in last night Sprint qualifying. A small error cost Piastri pole by 0.045 seconds, which was annoying. Hadjar made Q3, which was better.
Our ante-post bet on Leclerc for the Sprint race has gone south. He could only manage to qualify sixth and was pretty despondent afterwards. There were no excuses, just that the car had no pace. Starting sixth in the sprint race means that he will likely finish sixth. The cars in front are faster, so to make the top three, he would need three ahead to crash out and nobody crashes in sprint races.
I mentioned it in the preview that the Sprint Race is really decided in sprint qualifying. At the end of this race, the teams have three hours to set the cars up for the Grand Prix part of the weekend.
Drivers know that if they crash, they are severely compromising their chances in what is the important part of the weekend. Nobody is going to take any risks. Last year, the top six on the grid finished in exactly the same order as they started. We have to expect something similar today.
Antonelli On Pole
Kimi Antonelli starts from pole. The two Mercedes never set a soft tyre time in FP1 so it was hard to get a handle on their pace until qualifying. Russell was right up there but opted to do his qualifying run early in the session. The track evolves lap by lap, so he was taking a risk, but had someone crashed after he had done his lap, has happened in FP1, he would have been laughing.
Antonelli was put out late in the session and got the better conditions and nailed a good lap. Piastri said that he made a small mistake that cost him a tenth, and that in turn cost him pole. Lando Norris starts third, just 0.055 slower than Piastri.
Sparking Mercedes
Other drivers were passing comment on the fact that the Mercedes was sparking a lot, running very low to the ground. Last year the Mercedes was at its best on smooth tracks which allowed them to run the car low, extracting much more downforce.
It seems that they are running low here, for the Sprint race at least. A bit like Ferrari in China, they can run low safe in the knowledge that on low fuel and a short race, they will not fall foul of penalties for excessive plank wear.
Excessive tyre wear cost them dearly in Jeddah and that is probably their only concern today. It is only a nineteen lap race, but on medium tyres, which are softer than they were last year, they might need some managing.
However, the driver in the lead has the clean air and the best downforce. No sliding about in dirty air and that is worth quite a bit in terms of tyre degradation.
Antonelli’s To Lose
This is Antonelli’s race to lose. He could get jumped at the start if he is slowly away. He is bound to be nervous and getting off the line well is not a given. Hopefully Bottas, or whoever is in his ear, can tell him to just make his car big, make it risky for the cars behind to try an pass him. None of the front runners are going to take any risks. If he makes it through the first corner in the lead, he should be fine.
There was rain overnight, which means the track will be down on grip again and the skies are quite cloudy, but the forecast is for only a 20% chance of rain after 3pm local time. Any rain is expected to be light and come in the form of isolated showers.
A rain shower could liven things up, but it is much more likely to be dry, if the forecasters are right. It is sprinkling with rain with an hour to go, so we might have a damp start.
Piastri is the 2.25 favourite to win the Sprint race, Antonelli 3.75, Norris 4.50, Verstappen 13.00.
Young Gun
Antonelli is only as big as 3.75 because he is the youngest ever pole sitter and the assumption is that he will not be up to the job. I am not so sure. If it was for the Grand Prix, then yes, he would be opposable.
However, sprints are different because of the conservative nature of the drivers in a sprint. It is an ideal scenario for Antonelli. So long as he doesn’t fluff the start, the race is at his mercy.
These young drivers are much better prepared these days and he will have started from pole in plenty of races. He should be fine. Piastri and Norris will be ready to pounce, but they will not be making any rash lunges.
2025 Miami GP Sprint Race Tip: 1 point Kimi Antonelli to win the Sprint race @ 3.75 with Livescorebet
Looking at the grid for the Sprint, only Tsunoda looks well out of place. He starts down in eighteenth in the Red Bull. Last year, he started from fifteenth in the Racing Bull and managed to score a point by finishing in eighth.
Logan Sargeant made up eight places in the sprint for Williams, so the drivers out the back will have a go as they don’t have so much to lose if they crash.
Tsunoda is still not totally at ease in the Red Bull and it is a bit optimistic to think that he can make the points here again. Alonso might give it a go. He knows that his chance of getting points in the Grand Prix are slim, but from tenth in the sprint he might get one. Ditto Hulkenberg in the Sauber. But they are not great cars.
Ocon has a good record here, scoring points in the three previous GPs here. He starts from twelfth in the Haas, which tends to be better in races rather than qualifying. Making up four places is a bit optimistic. But he should make up some ground.
