2025 Emilia-Romagna GP Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Emilia-Romagna GP outright betting preview.

2025 Emilia-Romagna GP

It was another blood bath at the Miami GP. Six points lost and the season to date tally is now a miserable -23.98 points. The race itself turned out to be totally dry, of course, having gone for a couple of rain based bets. If it can go wrong, it will, seems to be the theme for 2025.

We have now had six races and there are some patterns emerging, but there is still a lot of inconsistency in various teams’ and drivers’ performances.

With this being the first race back in Europe, we should expect to see quite a lot of upgrades being brought to the track. This a normal race weekend with three practice sessions, which makes it a more sensible venue for upgrades. All eyes will be on Ferrari. Not only is it one of their two home races, they also have a major upgrade this weekend.

The Track

The Imola circuit is an old school track that was first used as a Formula 1 championship venue in 1980, but the track was opened in 1953. It fell off the calendar in 2006 but returned under the monicker of the Emilia Romagna GP in 2020. There was no race in 2023 due to flooding.

There are nineteen corners, and just one DRS zone. That is because there are no other sections of track that would accommodate one. It is not a particularly flowing track. There are four chicanes and three slow corners which makes feel a bit of a point and squirt track.

The brakes get a good work out but it is still a quick, busy lap which doesn’t give the drivers much time to take a breather. The drivers love it because it is demanding and a good test of driver skill.

Contract Up

It is likely to be the last time we race here in F1. Their contract is up. It was drafted onto the calendar in the Covid days but it is not a great fit for modern F1. Street circuits are where the big bucks are and a quaint track in rural Italy doesn’t fit the bill anymore. It is a shame. F1 is better with a mix of circuit types and this is a different sort of track.

Sadly, it is a track not designed for the huge cars we have in F1 these days. Hopefully it can sign off with a race to remember, and to remind people that it is not all about long straights, floodlights and celebrities. Money talks in F1 and we are in an age where we will see more races in the USA and the Middle East. The great old school tracks are an endangered species.

2025 Emilia-Romagna GP: The Weather Forecast

Hopefully the forecasters can do a better job than they managed in Miami. The early forecast was for very pleasant, warm and sunny for all three days with virtually no chance of rain. The latest forecast is now for hazy sunshine on Friday and Saturday, not as warm at 20-21 degrees, but dry.

Sunday now has a 47% chance of light spotty showers at a temperature of 23 degrees. We are talking about less than a millimetre of rain, so it should not require even intermediate tyres, if correct.

Tyres

This weekend sees Pirelli bringing their softest compound, the C6, for the first time. It is an unused compound outside of some testing. Needless to say that it is a very high grip and high degradation tyre. It will be useless in the race but fun for a flying lap in qualifying, if the driver can make it last a lap.

The hard and medium tyres will be used in the race and it should be another one-stopper. The track is quite kind to the tyres, hence bringing a soft range, and if anything, that should favour McLaren, who will have less trouble making them last to the end of the lap.

2025 Emilia-Romagna GP: Team-by-Team Outlook

McLaren 

Their display in the Grand Prix in Miami was more like what I was expecting for this season but so far, they had not quite pulled it off. Their one lap pace is much less dominant, but their race pace on Sunday was very impressive. Over thirty seven seconds up the road from their nearest pursuer, George Russell. It was a very straight forward 1-2.

Their tyre advantage in hot conditions is well known and the conditions in Miami were the hottest so far, both air and track. We are now into the ‘summer season’ and we can expect more races to be held in warmer/hot conditions, and this weekend should see a lot of strong sunshine to heat up the track.

The car itself also seems to be able to be more effective in hot conditions. In order to keep everything cool, the teams have to open up the body work to improve airflow through the car. McLaren didn’t have to open their car as much. That helps with aerodynamics and they do not have to compromise aerodynamic performance to help with cooling. It is just better engineering.

Leading The Way

McLaren lead the Constructors’ Championship by 105 points from Mercedes and with summer coming, we should expect that to grow and to do so more quickly.

Norris has a good record here, finishing on the podium for the last three races and had the race been a lap or two longer last year, he may well have got his first win at the track. His tyres were lasting better than Verstappen’s but he just ran out of time. Piastri finished fourth on his track debut last year.

Piastri now leads Norris by sixteen points in the Drivers’ Championship. Their H2H record is 3-3 in qualifying but 4-2 to Piastri in the races. Once again, Norris is not doing as well as he should on Sundays while Piastri goes from strength to strength, but there is a long way to go.

Mercedes 

Going steady but still a long way off McLaren. Kimi Antonelli continues to improve, but he still has some way to go in terms of race craft. George Russell has now scored four podiums in the six Grand Prix. Maybe a race will fall into his lap at some point but both McLaren drivers would need to have a very bad day at the office.

Russell is 5-1 with Antonelli in qualifying, but Antonelli was the quicker over one lap in Miami, in both the sprint and Grand Prix Qualifying, but lost out in both races. Russell is 6-0 in the races.

Previous Track Form

Antonelli has no F1 form at this track but he has raced here in various junior Formulas. It will be his first home race in F1 and the attention he will get will be off the scale. At his tender age, that might be a negative.

George Russell retired (spectacularly) in his first two races here but managed a fourth and seventh in his last two. Mercedes won the first Emilia-Romagna GP but have struggled in the ground effect era. They are bringing upgrades and, as always, are podium contenders.

The car has good one lap pace, but their race pace compared to McLaren is not competitive. It is asking a lot to fix that…and to focus on the 2026 car as well.

Red Bull 

Verstappen has been able to show his class in qualifying, racking up three pole positions in the last four Grand Prix. However, over a race distance, the car lacks the pace of the McLaren, it can’t manage the tyres as well, and Verstappen has been complaining about the brakes too.

The car had a minor floor revision in Miami but it needs a lot more work if it is to be able to win more races. The warmer weather in the summer races will not be ideal unless they can sort out the thermal tyre degradation.

The car lacks pace in slow and medium speed corners and that means that this track may not be well suited to the RB21. Kerb riding has been a weakness for Red Bull and you do have to hit the kerbs through the chicanes here.

Max On A Four Timer

Verstappen has won the last three races here, but he no longer has the fastest car. Yuki Tsunoda has form figures of 12/7/10 at Imola and he has managed two top tens for Red Bull since he was drafted in after the first two races.

His qualifying performances are good enough to see him into Q3 but it is hard to see anything more than minor points at best. He did live near the track in his Alpha Tauri days, so he will feel at home here.

Red Bull are expected to have more upgrades going on the car this weekend. They have not confirmed it, but there are things coming, including an attempt to mimic McLaren’s rear brake cooling system.

That seems to be the key to the McLaren being able to cool not just the rear brakes, but the rear tyres. Of course, Red Bull are without the ‘brains’ that steered them to so much success in recent years, and not just Adrian Newey.

Ferrari 

Will Ferrari be unleashing their big upgrade this weekend? The team are under pressure to start delivering some results. They seem to be going backwards and getting beaten by Williams may say more about Ferrari than it does about Williams.

They do seem to be pinning their hopes on what will happen when the new flexi-wing rules kick in at Barcelona, but they will be trying to make improvements this weekend. And they need to. Charles Leclerc said in Miami that they got everything they could out of the car, and that was only good enough to qualify eighth and twelfth. That is dire.

I expected them to be strong, at least in the Sprint Race, but Leclerc crashed on the out lap (which was a blessing as we got our stake money back on that bet). Hamilton did end up third in the sprint, but it was a mixed up wet race which told us very little. In the dry for the GP they finished seventh and eighth.

The car needs serious work and the race strategists have gone back to being very Ferrari again, having looked much improved last year. It is not helped by trying to bed a new driver into the team. It helps even less that the driver is a seven times World Champion.

Frustrations

This was supposed to be a masterstroke from Ferrari, but it is not going well. Hamilton is seeing Russell and Antonelli having a much better car with his old team and is also less than impressed with how Ferrari operate. From a well-oiled outfit to a bit of a clown show. Everyone is disappointed, frustrated and underperforming. Fred Vasseur has his work cut out to stop the rot.

Ferrari’s best result in the Emilia Romagna GP is a third place for Charles Leclerc last year. They would be delighted to get a repeat of that this year. I would be surprised, but maybe their upgrade will hit the target.

The team are downplaying the scale of their upgrade and it may be that Barcelona will see their definitive final push, but we are in Italy and a nation expects. Leclerc said that “I think Imola maybe could be good”. Maybe, maybe not.

Williams 

Detached from the big four, but pulling away from the rest of the midfield. There was a spat between Albon and Sainz in Miami, with Sainz not happy about team orders, but it seems that was down to poor communication from the pit wall rather than Albon being favoured.

He is twenty three points ahead of Sainz, but the ex-Ferrari man is only now settling into the car. He has out qualified Albon in the last three GP qualifying sessions and I expect to see better race results coming up.

This has not been a great venue for Williams and they have yet to score a point in the Emilia Romagna GP. That should change this weekend.

Haas 

Have failed to score in the last two Grand Prix and their form is especially hard to pin down. Outside of this tenth place in Suzuka, Bearman’s qualifying has been very poor. He has qualified last in Bahrain and Miami and only Lance Stroll has a lower average qualifying position.

Esteban Ocon is marginally better in qualifying, but there were no hints that he would stick it in ninth place on the grid in Miami. Ocon is 4-2 in qualifying and the GPs.

The car’s race pace is a lot better than qualifying pace but they are very inconsistent and are losing ground to Williams, which makes scoring points difficult without attrition for other teams.

Aston Martin 

Pointless in the last four GP’s. Alonso has had a couple of eleventh place finishes, and with a bit of luck (other cars retiring) he might score a point here or there. Stroll is the worst qualifier on the grid and while he can do things in the wet, he is not a feature in normal races.

It is ironic that it is Stroll who has scored all fourteen of the teams points. He has scored points in the last three races here, but this year’s car is just not up to that level. Stroll loves the track and did well in junior formulas, so we may see a better weekend for him, especially if the upgrade package works.

Substantial Upgrade

Aston Martin will be bringing a substantial upgrade this weekend. A new floor and upper bodywork, designed to produce more downforce, more consistently. It will be put on one of the cars for Friday’s free practice, for back-to-back comparison.

Aston Martin have been famously poor at bringing upgrades that actually work but for 2025 they have revised their development processes and will only put new parts on the car that work as expected. This will be that acid test as to whether the new processes have been effective.

The upgrade will be the first development which has used Aston Martin’s new state of the art wind tunnel but do not expect a ‘Newey makeover’ as he is having very little input on the 2025 car.

Racing Bulls 

Hadjar is thereabouts in qualifying (slipping back a little recently) but just a bit less competitive in the races. He remains a contender for minor points and as an Anglo-Italian team, I would expect some upgrades this weekend.

They have (under various names) scored points here in all four Emilia Romagna GPs. Hadjar is 3-1 with Lawson in qualifying and 4-0 in the GPs. Maybe Hadjar can keep that record up, but they will need either a little luck, or an effective upgrade. Lawson just isn’t doing it for me.

Alpine 

A bit like Ferrari, Alpine are reverting to type. It was beginning to look like they were entering a period of stability, with a better management structure and some much needed continuity. But last week saw all that going out of the window.

First of all there was the surprise news that team principal, Oliver Oakes had resigned. That was out of the blue. A few hours later came the news that Jack Doohan had been dropped and will be replaced by ex-Williams driver Franco Colapinto. That was not a great surprise.

Oakes Speculation

People put two and two together and reckoned that Oakes had left as he didn’t support the driver switch. Not true said Alpine, Oakes had resigned over a personal issue. A couple of days later it was revealed that Oakes’ brother had been arrested by Police and found to be in procession of a ‘large amount of cash’. He was charged with ‘transferring criminal property’.

The two brothers are still business partners, have dealings with a Russian oligarch and Oakes didn’t return to the UK after leaving Miami early. Instead he went to Dubai, away from the long arm of the law. There is an ongoing investigation and that story will run and run.

Acting Principal

In the meantime, Dave Greenwood will be acting team principal and Colapinto will be in the second car this weekend. Flavio Briatore was expected to be acting principle, but he is not employed by Alpine and cannot be recognised as a person responsible for Alpine. I suppose the people working for Alpine are used to bosses coming and going at short notice, but it is not an ideal situation, to say the least.

Gasly has reached Q3 in three qualifying sessions but has had only one points scoring finish, in Bahrain. Gasly’s best finish here was a seventh place in 2021, his only points finish.

Colapinto had a mixed record in his time at Williams, scoring points in two of his first four races, but then having several big crashes and was pointless from his last five races, including three DNFs. He is a huge star in Argentina and his backers have deep pockets.

I remain to be convinced that he is the real deal. He has great pace, but he was expensive to have driving an F1 car. A bit too mistake prone. Pencilled in for a Not Classified bet? Not yet.

Sauber 

Still just making up the numbers. Hulkenberg is 4-2 with Bortoleto in qualifying, and 5-1 in the races. They are pointless in the last five races.

2025 Emilia-Romagna GP Summary

Upgrades should be the main talking point this weekend, but everyone is downplaying what they are bringing and how it will affect performance. That shouldn’t be a surprise. With the big changes coming in for 2026, the teams have more people working on next year’s car.

There are not going to be the same sort of resources thrown at the 2025 car. ‘Incremental improvements’ are the buzzwords, but some will have more changes than others and some will work better than others.

It is not a great situation for upfront bets. We have three practice sessions to try and work out if anyone looks to have made any relative progress. Qualifying is important on a track where overtaking is hard.

Relative Progress Key

Relative progress is the key. Everyone will be trying to make gains and if they all do, the chance is that not a lot will change. Obviously, McLaren are the team to catch and they may choose to be very careful in terms of making any changes.

It is possible to bring an upgrade that turns out to be a downgrade, as Aston Martin have proved time and time again. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it should be the motto at McLaren. They say that they are hoping to improve the cars qualifying performance and make it a little easier for their drivers to get the most out of it over one lap.

Home Comforts

This is a home race for Ferrari, but also for the Racing Bulls. Their Italian base at Faenza is a few miles down the SS9 from Imola and they have used the track for shake down tests, filming days and running drivers in older cars. They know the place better than most and should have a bit more data to draw on. That may explain their good record here.

Issak Hadjar is their best driver and while he lacks experience, he has been doing a solid job since his first race mishap in Australia. If Racing Bulls are to continue their good record here, he is the more likely of their two drivers to do so. Hadjar has already finished in the points twice, and been eleventh twice, so he is in the scoring zone.

2025 Emilia-Romagna GP Tip: 1 point Issak Hadjar to finish in the points @ 2.87 with Ladbrokes

For the outright winner betting, Piastri is the 2.38 favourite. He is going for his fourth win in a row. Lando Norris is the 2.50 second favourite. Norris has won just one GP in 2025, compared to Piastri’s four. The Englishman has a good record here, but the momentum is with Piastri, and maybe the Aussie is the better value.

It may be better to wait until after qualifying to play in the main market as McLaren are not as dominant over one lap, and the forecast for lower temperatures moves things away from their strong point. They are still the team to beat, and I doubt that anyone is going to bring an upgrade that will change that fact.

McLaren have both drivers on the podium in four of the six races so far in 2025, that means there is likely to be room for just one other team to get a driver to join them on the podiums. So far, that has been George Russell four times, Verstappen three times and Charles Leclerc once.

Upgrades Key

Again, who brings the most effective upgrade package could buck that trend, and it is very close behind the McLarens. Verstappen is 1.85 to finish on the podium, Russell 2.65, Leclerc 4.25, Antonelli 4.50 and Hamilton 6.00.

Given their respective track records, Verstappen looks the most likely, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he struggled a bit this weekend. If so, Russell is a decent bet but with this weekend being big for upgrades, it is better to wait than to guess in a very tight market.

For top six betting, Kimi Antonelli looks underrated at 1.67. He has only missed out on a top six finish in one of the five races so far. He is improving and this is a track that he knows. It being a home race can work in two ways, a distraction which doesn’t allow for a full focus on the job at hand, or an inspiration to perform for family and country. It is not a huge price, but it is still value.

2025 Emilia-Romagna GP Tip: 1 point Kimi Antonelli to finish in the top 6 @ 1.67 with Betfair

For one last bet I will go for a bit of an outsider to finish in the points. I have already picked Hadjar, who has two points finishes from the first six races, and two eleventh places just hitting the post. Another driver who has hit the post twice is Fernando Alonso.

This bet requires a leap of faith that Aston Martin’s upgrade will work, but at least they have put a program in place to make that more likely to happen, and it comes from their new wind tunnel. Miami was a bad weekend for the team, but if he can get back to qualifying thirteenth (or better) he just might squeak it.

2025 Emilia-Romagna GP Tip: 1 point Fernando Alonso to finish in the points @ 6.50 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt