2025 Monaco GP Raceday Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Monaco GP Raceday preview. We had more hard luck stories in qualifying, Antonelli crashing summing up our season so far. But we go again…

2025 Monaco GP Raceday

Three bets lost in qualifying yesterday and our ante-post race bets look in very bad shape. Just the usual for F1 2025 style. But maybe all is not lost.

Today we take something of a step into the unknown with the new three sets of tyres rule, or minimum two stops if you prefer. How the teams are going to try and run strategies to comply with the rule and maximise their drivers’ chances are yet to be seen.

The common thoughts are that those drivers in the lower half of the grid will make an early stop and then do a long run, hoping for a safety car/Red Flag later to make their second stop with less time lost.

The more far out strategies might be to make two stops, lap 1 and lap 2 and then run to the end of the race. By doing that you could pick up two pitstops worth of time later in the race when the cars that decided to race ‘as normal’ have to make their stops. Great if there were no safety cars, which has happened twice in the last four years.

High Risk

The two early stop plan is seen as very high risk, but as such, you might be the only driver to do it and you might get some clean air if you are a clear last. However, even with two early stops you get put out back in traffic, and one lap down, which is no good.

There will be one driver of the group that will pit very early, who will come out at the head of that pack and have a lot of clear track and clean air ahead of them. That is a good place to be, but most of the cars running this strategy will be stuck behind the lead car of the earlier stoppers.

Lead Drivers

What about the lead drivers? Normally in Monaco the lead drivers drive conservatively early on, managing the pace and pitting first and getting an over cut benefit. With the new regulations, there is a school of thought that the lead cars will go hell for leather to open up the field, creating more gaps for them to drop back into when they stop. The risk here is going hell for leather on a track were crashing is easy.

Other strategy options include the tactic that Haas have employed in the last year or two. Get your second placed driver to go really slow, holding up the cars behind, and let your lead driver open up a big gap to pit and still come out ahead of the sacrificed teammate and all the cars behind. That would work for say, Williams. Get Sainz to do snail pace to allow Albon to open up a gap, but I doubt Sainz would do it.

Briatore Strategy

Then there is the ‘Briatore strategy’. Get one of your drivers to deliberately crash at an opportune moment, at a critical part of the track, allowing your other driver to jump up the order. Outrageous!

Indeed, but it did happen at the 2008 Singapore GP and it was not found out until the driver ordered to crash, Nelson Piquet Jr., spilled the beans the following year, having been dropped by the team. The result of the race was never changed. Alonso, who had just made an early stop, was able to jump into the lead of the race having started from fifteenth.

It couldn’t happen again, I mean Briatore got a lifetime ban from F1, so nobody is going to risk that. But of course, who is effectively the current team principle at Alpine?

There are other subtleties like teams who are very good at pit stops may gain a second or so advantage over the two stops. Where your garage is in the pit land can make a difference, but at the end of the day, nobody really knows how this new rule will pan out. It could well be that nothing much changes, or it could be chaos. There are so many scenarios that cannot possibly be planned for.

Permutations

The potential strategy permutations are myriad. Piastri said the McLaren strategy briefing was mind bending. Lewis Hamilton said “I think the two stops should be better than the shite we had last year. I think this kind of forces a bit more of a lottery. I think you need that at this sort of track, because you can’t overtake. And I’m excited to see how different it is.”

So, the drivers are happy that the race has become a lottery. If you are having a bet today, remember that you are entering a lottery. It’s not great, is it?

Of course, the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry. It is interesting that Pirelli’s usual race strategy guide is basically a shrug of the shoulders.

The basic fact remains that you can’t race these big cars on this circuit. You can drive round it and look spectacular, but you cannot call it racing. In my opinion, Monaco should become a stand-alone qualifying weekend. Just have three qualifying sessions with points awarded. Ten for the fastest, down to one for tenth. Just forget about having a pretend race.

Hard To Predict

It is very hard to predict what the result of having two stops will be. My gut feeling is that it will mix things up in the second half of the field, maybe into the minor points, but the cars at the front will still follow each other around and finish in much the same order.

The pole position driver has a big advantage here, but no guarantee of winning. The pole sitter has failed to win four of the last six races here. Of the twenty four races this century at Monaco, the pole sitter has won fifteen. The driver starting second has won four and the driver starting third has won five.

That suggests that Norris will win, and if he doesn’t, Piastri will, but there is a small chance that Leclerc will. If we are to get someone outside the top three winning, it would take rain (Panis from 14th in 1996), or someone employing the Briatore manoeuvre. However, the chance of rain is just 2% and with the two Alpines so desperately slow this weekend, they would be hard pushed to be able to pull off another race fixing strategy. But…it is now a lottery and everyone is really excited!

Not Gone To Script

The weekend so far has not gone to script. The driver on pole is the one who was saying last weekend that he just couldn’t qualify well anymore. He had lost his one lap mojo. The driver lining alongside him, said that Monaco was going to be difficult as his car was so poor in slow corners. The two best qualifiers of the season could only manage the second row.

The Racing Bulls got both cars into Q3, Haas have a driver in eighth place (the other in last place) and Williams’ resurgence stopped in its tracks. Mercedes failed to get even one driver into Q3. The only thing that remains the same is that Lance Stroll went out in Q1 for the millionth time. That boy is like a Swiss watch.

All that BEFORE the two stop gimmick takes effect.

F2 Crashes

If you have been watching the support races this morning, you will have seen a lot of marshals recovering smashed up cars from turn one. The F2 race saw a pile up which took out many of the leaders and the race had to be shortened as it took so long to sort it all out.

The Porsche Super Cup race said hold my beer, and half the field just got stuck behind a pile up on Beau Rivage. Their ‘race’ started behind the safety car and lasted about three minutes, Both races were red flagged before the end of the first sector, just as happened in last year’s F1 race. Monaco is not fit to hold races.

This is the reason why we have the two stop lottery plan. First lap wipeouts and resulting red flags. Everyone likes a crash so why not just have a Demolition Derby instead. Last man standing wins.

Not A Betting Race

After much consideration, I have decided that having anymore bets on this race is very unwise. We could just back some random cars at huge odds and hope to win the lottery, but I prefer to have some sort of reason for making a selection.

We bought ‘lottery tickets’ earlier in the week. Piastri to win, Sainz for a podium, Sainz for a top 6, and Gasly to finish in the points. You never know, as they say in the lottery ads, ‘it could be you’.

I discovered yesterday that I pressed the wrong button when placing the bet on a Sainz podium finish. Instead, I am on Alonso. That is the luckiest I have been all year! Maybe it will be him.

2025 Monaco GP Raceday Tip: No Bets

-JamesPunt