2025 Spanish GP Outright Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Spanish GP outright betting preview. Monaco proved to be another tough weekend, surely our pain will end in Spain…

2025 Spanish GP Preview

Having just endured the usual, boring, processional ‘race’ at Monaco last weekend, we head to Barcelona where the racing has been less than competitive over the years, where the pole sitter has a strong hold on the race result and picking the winner should be relatively easy.

Of course, this season has proved to be impossible for me to pick a winner at the best of times, and this week at the 2025 Spanish GP we have a new fly in the ointment. The new regulations limiting the flexibility of the wings.

Rear wing flexing has already been limited, but this is the ‘big one’. When the news broke that the regulations were to change, it was said to be a game changer, a complete re-set of the competitive order. McLaren were finished, Ferrari were going the be reborn, blah, blah, blah.

No Silver Bullet

I doubt it. Outside of something like a split diffuser, there is very rarely one thing on a car that makes it tenths of a second quicker than its rivals. The designers have been saying that there is ‘no silver bullet’ that can change of one these cars into the class of the field. It is a fraction of a second here, another fraction there and that is especially true at the end of a regulation cycle where the teams’ designs have converged.

There is also the small matter that the teams have not had this change foisted on them overnight. They have had months to prepare.

In the last few years we have had alterations to rear wings and not a lot changed. There were changes to flexible floors which did trip some teams up, but the floor accounts for the majority of these ground effect cars’ downforce. There is where the magic lies.

Front Wing

The front wing is important as it is the first part of the car that effects the airflow down the rest of the car’s body work, but it is not as big a deal as the floor. That said, the two work in harmony. A flexible front wing helps to balance the car at different speeds.

At slow and medium speeds the front wing needs to produce enough downforce to avoid understeer, but at high speed, you want it to have less impact so that the car is stable in the fast corners and not producing oversteer. The flexing helps this to be achieved.

What we have here is a classic example of underperforming teams trying to unsettle the team that is winning. They cannot match them, they cannot copy them and they cannot beat them, so get the FIA to change the rules to try and unsettle them.

Rear Brake Cooling

It seems that the losing teams are now looking at other parts of the McLaren and got the FIA to look at McLaren’s rear brake hub cooling. They must be cheating because they have a clever way to keep the rear tyres cool, lowering degradation and increasing race performance. The FIA agreed, McLaren do have a clever way of cooling the rear brake hubs, but it is not illegal. Mr. Horner has to go and find a new way of slowing down the McLaren.

Of course, the wings on the McLaren do flex, all the front wings on every car flex and they will still flex. All the wings passed the previous tests, none were illegal. In order to shut all the finger pointers up, the FIA has made the amount of flexing allowed smaller.

Of course, the FIA measure the amount of flexing while the car is stationary, a static load test. It tries to mimic what happens to a front wing when under the forces experienced when going full tilt down a long straight. It is not really a like for like test.

Big Question

The question everyone wants the answer to is, if the new tests do make a noticeable difference, who is likely to be affected? That depends on how each car finds the balance between the floor producing the big downforce at high speeds and the wing doing its job in slower corners. No two cars are going to be the same.

The front wings are very clever bits of engineering. Made from carbon fibre, threads of carbon woven together, but different wing elements can be made with the direction of the weave going in different directions. They will move in different directions under loading. By playing with the wing adjusters you can make the wing bend at high speed.

No Switch

There is no cock-pit switch to do this, it is achieved by the forces acting upon the wing at various speeds. The new tests are supposed to make the wings less flexible and not be able to bend back so much. That should make it harder to get the balance required to be fast in slow, medium and fast corners.

The complaining teams think that McLaren, in particular, are doing a better job under the current regulations, so they are literally trying to unbalance them by having the regulations changed. Who has the political clout to twist the FIA’s arm into changing the regulations? Ferrari for sure, and Red Bull. If Sauber was the complainant, nothing would be happening.

These teams think that by changing the regulations they can hurt the performance of their competitors car. To what degree is yet to be seen.

The 2025 Spanish GP Track

The Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya was first used in 1991 and was Formula 1’s go to test track for many years. The reason why it is such a good test track is that it has a bit of everything. There is a long straight for straight line speed performance, there are slow corners, medium speed corners, fast corners, left handers and right handers. It was always said that if a car was good here, it would be good anywhere.

There are two DRS zones to help with overtaking but it has been the scene of some pretty dull racing, apart from last year, which was a cracker. Overtaking at the end of the long DRS zone on the start/finish straight is the main overtaking spot but hanging on through two and three is not easy.

We have seen some great wheel to wheel racing in the first few corners. Max Verstappen often making up places here. It is a long run down into the first corner and it is a very Max friendly set up.

Car Track

The quickest/best car qualifies on pole, and his teammate shouldn’t be too far away if things go to plan. Since the start of the turbo hybrid era in 2014 we have had four Mercedes’ 1-2 finishes, and we had a Red Bull 1-2 finish in 2022.

It is a car track and since 2014 we have seen Mercedes win seven times and Red Bull four times. It was the scene of Max Verstappen’s first F1 win in 2016, but he was massively helped by the two Mercedes crashing out on lap one having qualified 1-2. Red Bull have won the last three races here and the last surprise winner was Pastor Maldonado for Williams in 2012, the team’s last race win.

The pole position driver has won seven of the eleven races since the start of the turbo hybrid era, and only one has been won from outside of the front row. That was when Verstappen won from fourth after Hamilton and Rosberg had crashed into each other on lap one in 2014. Otherwise we would have had another front row winner.

Qualifying Key

Monaco is all about what happens on Saturday, but Barcelona is a bit of a Saturday track as well. All but three of the races here have been won from the front row, and 70.6% of the races have been won from pole position.

We have had Mercedes domination in the turbo hybrid era and Red Bull dominance in the ground effect era, but McLaren were second here in 2024 with Lando Norris who had qualified on pole and set the fastest lap. But for a botched first lap Norris would have won.

He had the fastest car but in trying to block Verstappen at the start, he let Russell pass them both and his race was compromised by dropping two places in the first two corners. The pole sitter can lose the race, but they really should win it.

The 2025 Spanish GP Weather Forecast

We are into the European Summer and it is going to be hot and sunny in Barcelona this weekend. Lots of sunshine, especially on Friday and Saturday. Sunday will see more cloud but it will still be hot with temperatures of 27 degrees. The chance of any rain is less than 2% for any of the three days.

It should be noted that the track surface here is very sensitive to sunlight. A passing cloud that blocks out the sun can see the track temp drop quickly and we have seen sudden reverses in form simply because the track temp has dropped a few degrees. This can be a real random factor in qualifying.

2025 Spanish GP Team-by-Team

McLaren 

Have not won here since 2005 but they have to be favourites this year. Only the new flexi-wing rules threaten that. After eight races in 2025, McLaren lead the championship by 172 points. They have had five pole positions, six race wins, eight other podiums, and six fastest laps.

It is a very dominant season, without really feeling like one. This is probably because they have not really dominated in qualifying, and because neither Norris or Piastri has a stranglehold on the Drivers’ Championship, in the same way as Verstappen or Hamilton had in recent years.

Norris should have won here last year and Piastri’s weekend was compromised by having his best qualifying time in Q3 deleted for exceeding track limits, dropping him from third to seventh.

Piastri A Threat

Norris regained his qualifying mojo in Monaco but Piastri is still going to be a threat.

Will the new flexi-wing regulations hurt McLaren? They have always said no, and that they are not going to have change anything much, if at all. There is a school of thought that says that their mix of front wing design, rearward centre of pressure with the floor and a clever anti-dive front suspension set up, means that any flexing only makes a marginal difference. It is a thin layer of icing on a very nice cake.

Ironically, as the target of the regulation changes, McLaren may be the least affected.

Mercedes 

Still second in the Constructors’ Championship, despite failing to score in Monaco. Antonelli crashed in qualifying, which ended his hopes in the race. Russell suffered a mechanical failure in Q2 and that was his weekend over. The car is still decent and will bounce back this weekend. It is a good all-rounder and that should be rewarded on a track that tests all parts of a car’s performance.

Perhaps the biggest worry for them is having two mechanical failures in the last two race weekends. That is very unlike Mercedes (and a failure with Alonso’s Mercedes power unit in Monaco). Another concern is that the weather in Barcelona at this time of year can be hot, and hot weather is not good for Mercedes.

Previous Form

George Russell has had a couple of third places here and like all the senior drivers, has a lot of track experience. Antonelli has a pole position here in one of the Junior formulae but failed to score any points here in his two F2 races.

Will Mercedes be a winner or loser in the flexi-wing wars? They are not one of the teams complaining, so that suggests that they are using it to help with performance. Their car is not as well balanced as the McLaren and if they do have to change their wing, they may be on the losing side, but they say that they will not. The jury is still out with Mercedes.

Red Bull 

Only four points behind Mercedes and Verstappen has scored all but seven of their 143 points. Verstappen is the only realistic threat to McLaren this season, and this weekend.

Red bull will be hopeful on two fronts. Firstly, their performance at Imola. They had introduced more upgrades that weekend and Verstappen won that race quite comfortably, despite a safety car bunching the field and wiping out his twenty second lead.

McLaren did not do a great race. Piastri left the door open at the start and Verstappen took his chance decisively. The race didn’t pan out well for Piastri and after the safety car, McLaren failed to tell Piastri, on old tyres, to let Norris past in order to have a go at Verstappen. But, overall, Verstappen was very impressive and certainly a match for McLaren.

Effective Updates

The updates that Red Bull brought to Miami and Imola have worked. The car, when at the front in clean air, was at least as fast as the McLaren. Monaco wasn’t a good for it, but back on a proper racetrack, Verstappen should be right there.

Their second hope is that the new flexi-wing regulations hurt McLaren enough to give Verstappen the edge. That remains to be seen. I have my doubts, but we will not know until the end of the weekend. The regulation changes are not going to make the Red Bull any faster, but it may make it relatively more competitive against some cars more than others.

Four Time Winner

Verstappen is a four time winner here, including the last four years. It was the scene of his first F1 win and he has a lot of good memories associated with the track. He is a realistic contender once again.

Tsunoda was racing with some old parts on his car in Monaco, a legacy of his big crash in Imola. He has a best finish of tenth here and while he may well beat that, he is just another Red Bull number two who is being crushed by Verstappen.

Red Bull have had a car on the podium here for the last nine years. That streak should continue this weekend.

Ferrari 

It was hard to understand Ferrari’s performance in Monaco. Everyone, including themselves, expected Monaco to be a very difficult weekend for them, but they qualified second and fourth. Hamilton had his weekend ruined by getting a three pace grid penalty for impeding Verstappen in qualifying. Leclerc finished second, which was all he could do.

Why were Ferrari so competitive on a track that was not supposed to suit them? The only theory which I subscribe to is that their car can be good in slow corners and as Monaco is all about slow corners, the team set it up for slow corners.

It is a very one dimensional track and that is what helped them. It is also a bumpy street circuit. That forces everyone to raise their ride height. Ferrari have had to run a higher ride height just to stay legal plank wear wise. The other cars were dragged down to Ferrari’s level, in other words.

On a track with a mix of corners, they have to cover all the bases, slow, medium and fast corners, and that is when they struggle.

Upgrades

However, not only do we have the flexi-wing regulations kicking in, but Ferrari should be introducing their much anticipated upgrades. Barcelona is the logical place to do it. You have three practice sessions to test the new parts and gather data, and the track is a great test of a car.

They will learn a lot about the upgrades and even if they don’t make a great difference this weekend, they will be better placed to move forward in upcoming races. Ferrari are the team expected to make a reasonable step up in performance this weekend, but everyone expected them to be rubbish in Monaco, so we shall just have to wait and see.

Monaco was another bad weekend for Hamilton. He was happy after free practice, not expecting to be so competitive, but not so happy after the mix up in qualifying, when his race engineer gave him the wrong information about what Verstappen was doing. He told Hamilton that Verstappen was slowing down when in fact he was on a hot lap, and that meant his weekend was ruined by a three place grid penalty.

Communication Issues

It was another example of his struggles in communicating with his race engineer. Ferrari is not the well-oiled machine that Mercedes is and it is frustrating Hamilton, and rightly so. Hamilton has a very good track record, thanks mostly to having the best car for a long period of time, but even in the ground effect era, he has picked up two podiums. Leclerc on the other hand has never finished better than fourth.

Regarding the flexi-wing regulation changes, Ferrari will be hoping to be net gainers. That is not a given. Their front wing is not unlike McLarens. If Ferrari have to stiffen their wing, they could make things worse.

Their problem is more about not being able to run the car low enough to make the floor work at its optimal level. That will have more to do with their suspension than another car’s front wing flexing a bit more than theirs.

This weekend will be a big one for Ferrari, and not because of the flexi-wing regulations.

Williams 

Got their fourth straight double points finish in Monaco, but it was a disappointing weekend for them. Finishing behind both Racing Bulls and a Haas was not what was expected. Monaco is an outlier and failure there is not a disaster. Back on a regular track they should be more competitive.

Sainz is getting frustrated by not getting the race results that are there to be had. His qualifying pace was absent in Monaco but before that he had three straight sixth places. Albon is getting the better race results but surely Sainz will convert a decent grid position into a top six finish soon.

His problem may be that Williams have stopped development. There will still be some new parts in the pipeline, but they are the first to have called time on their 2025 car. It may be the best car they have had in years, but they are happy to sacrifice that for a better start to the all-important 2026 car. It is possible that Williams will lose ground to those teams who have not yet given up on their 2025 car.

Home Soil For Sainz

Sainz has a decent record on home soil. He has always finished in the points, all top nine and with five top six finishes. He has a less competitive car this time, but still one that has scored three top six finishes in 2025.

Albon, on the other hand, has just one points finish, and that was in a Red Bull. Barcelona may be the scene of Williams’ last race win, but they have not scored any points here since 2016, and more often than not have had one of their cars finishing in last place.

Their car does struggle in long duration corners and there are a lot here. This may be another difficult Spanish GP for Williams.

Haas 

Trying to figure out the Haas’ performances is all but impossible. We know that their race pace is much better than their qualifying pace. But in Monaco, Ocon qualified in eighth and finished seventh thanks to Alonso’s retirement. He has had four Q1 exits in qualifying, but two Q3s in the last three.

Bearman has the second worst qualifying average, but three top ten finishes. Ocon has four consecutive points finishes here, but who knows what they can do this weekend? The team have not scored a point here since 2019.

Racing Bulls 

Enjoyed their best weekend of the season in Monaco. It was their first double points finish of the season and both made Q3 for the first time. They scored twelve points and moved to within four points of Haas in sixth place in the Constructors’ Championship.

That their best weekend came on an outlier circuit like Monaco suggests that it was a one off. They also did the best job strategy wise, using Lawson to slow down the Williams and Mercedes, to allow Hadjar to finish an uncontested sixth.

Hadjar has now finished in the points four times in 2025, but the team tend to struggle to match race pace to their qualifying pace. A no overtaking track like Monaco allowed them to do so. It will be harder elsewhere.

The team, in its various guises, have never had a double points finish here, but they usually get one in the points.

Aston Martin 

Are enjoying about as much luck as I am in 2025. They did get lucky in Melbourne, with Stroll finishing sixth, but they have not scored a point in the last six GPs.

Their Imola upgrade improved the car and Alonso has qualified fifth and seventh in the last two qualifying sessions, so at least they now have decent one lap pace. Alonso was running a solid sixth in Monaco, but his car developed a mechanical problem with the power unit, and he had to retire.

Can he finally get on the scoreboard in his home race? It hasn’t been a great venue for him with just four point scoring finishes from his last nine races here. He has also been out qualified by his teammate three times in the last four visits. He is 1-1 with Stroll here in both qualifying and the race.

Alpine 

I put the curse on Gasly last weekend and his record of always finishing top 11 in Monaco ended when he crashed into Tsunoda. His weekend had been a mess anyway. The car wasn’t handling the bumpy nature of the track.

Alpine have gone back to looking like a team in chaos again. They have managed just one points finish in the GPs this season. Getting rid of a driver and the team principle resigning has unsettled things and while Gasly has the talent, it is wasted where he is.

Gasly has finished in the points in Barcelona for the five of the last six years. Colapinto kept the car out of the barriers in Monaco, which is progress of sorts, but he was slowest in three of the five timed sessions. The car was particularly bad last weekend, which didn’t help.

Sauber 

An outlier circuit like Monaco can give poor cars a chance to nick a point, but it was another anonymous weekend for Hulkenberg and Bortoleto.

Summary

We are well into the season now. Of the eight Grand Prix so far, there have been three different drivers who have won races. Piastri has won four and Norris and Verstappen two each. That is just two different manufacturers.

The same three drivers have shared the pole positions. Three for Piastri and Verstappen and two for Norris. As for fastest laps, Norris now has five, Piastri one, Verstappen one, and Mercedes’ Kimi Antonelli one.

This was supposed to be the most competitive season for years, but the reality is that it has been between the two McLaren drivers and Verstappen.

Mercedes have picked up four podium finishes, Ferrari just two. After that there is a big points drop to Williams who have had three top five finishes but no podiums. Haas and Racing Bulls have each had one top six and the rest have been suffering with a points drought.

Is there any reason why that should change? There are two things that might alter things at the 2025 Spanish GP this weekend. The first is the effect, if any, of the new stricter wing flex tests. The second is the effect of any upgrades coming on stream.

All Eyes On Ferrari Upgrades

Traditionally, the Barcelona GP is where upgrades are introduced. All eyes are on Ferrari as they are at least within touching distance of McLaren and Verstappen. If they can make a step forward via their upgrades, like a new suspension system, to unlock the performance currently lost by having to run the car too high, then they do have potential to join the party.

This has not been a great venue for Ferrari in recent years, so even a good upgrade may not be enough. They have not won here since 2013 and their last podium was in 2017. Leclerc did get pole here in 2022 but retired from the lead of the race with engine failure and yes, I was on him.

Other teams are going to have some upgrades, but Ferrari has the most low hanging fruit to pick from. They are a team of interest this weekend.

The effects of the flexi-wings tests will become apparent, but Ferrari and Red Bull think that they are going to make relative gains.

Mercedes Mare In Monaco

Mercedes had a mare in Monaco but back on a regular track, they should be more competitive but the hot weather is not ideal for them, and recent reliability problems are a concern. However, this has been a good track for them, even in the ground effect era, so they are hard to dismiss.

I think we may have already seen the most important upgrades, and those were for the Red Bull. Max was quick at Imola. The car had a bigger sweet spot and he will now be more competitive more often. Had Piastri not left the door open at the first corner, the result at Imola may have been different, such is the advantage of running in clean air at the front. But give him an inch and he will take a mile.

Value Lies With Max

It was around this time last year that we backed McLaren to win the Constructors’ Championship at tasty odds. Their upgrades looked like they had worked and despite being 93 points behind, they were able to overcome the deficit to win the Constructors’ title.

There is no way that Red Bull can overtake McLaren in the Constructors’ Championship. Not only are they a massive 179 points behind, they remain effectively a one driver team. But Verstappen is just 25 points behind championship leader, Oscar Piastri. That is nothing with another sixteen races still to go.

I am not going to go mad on it as the odds are not huge value, but he is worth an interest at this stage.

2025 Spanish GP Tip: 1 point Max Verstappen to win the World Drivers’ Championship @ 4.33 with Betfred, SpreadEx, Hills

2025 Spanish GP Ante Post Betting

With this being a very qualifying sensitive track, it may be wise to hold fire until Sunday, especially with flexi-wing regulations kicking in, and the usual Barcelona upgrades to take into account. But there are two bets I will make now.

Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are the joint favourites at 2.75. A lot depends on whether Norris’ pole position at Monaco was a genuine return to form over a flying lap, or maybe just a bad weekend for Piastri? Norris said that a steady approach, rather than trying to wring the car’s neck was the key. It is all about confidence and he got it back in Monaco, but Piastri has been the better qualifier overall in 2025.

Tyre Deg Advantage

McLaren have been relatively weak in qualifying and that could be a problem here. However their biggest strength is likely to be their thermal tyre degradation advantage. Forget your flexi-wings. The McLaren is able to keep the rear tyres cooler than anyone else, and cooler means faster. If they are following another car, they do lose performance just like anyone else, but their tyre cooling trick should pay dividends this weekend.

What about Verstappen? Only Piastri has had more front row qualifications in 2025. Verstappen’s record here is excellent with four wins, including the last three, and he has been on the podium for the last seven years. Max won in Japan, the other great test track on the calendar. The conditions there with the resurfaced track and cool temperatures helped him and limited McLaren, but he won well.

His win at Imola was more important. The conditions were warmer and the pace of the car was very competitive. Yes, the first corner overtake may have been where the race was won and lost, but the first corner here is much the same, and we have seen Verstappen do some great overtaking at the first corner here in recent races.

If, and it is a big if, the flexi-wing changes do blunt McLaren’s advantage, Verstappen is the most likely to take advantage. I will have a small bet, but I plan to revisit the win market after qualifying.

2025 Spanish GP Tip: 1 point Max Verstappen to win @ 4.50 generally available

There is a temptation to back a podium finish for Russell at 3.75. The Mercedes has been very strong here in the past and his three races in the Silver Arrow have yielded finishes of 3/3/4. The problem is the hot weather.

Russell will say that in cool conditions we are fast, in hot conditions, nowhere. That is not quite true. Miami was the hottest race weekend of the year so far and we saw Antonelli get a sprint pole, and third on the GP grid. Russell only qualified fifth but finished third. However, it has been a weakness and it is going to be hot, so there are enough doubts to hold fire.

Leclerc is 2.75 and Hamilton 6.00 for a podium finish. Given Ferrari’s poor form here, there is not a lot of meat on those bones.

Top Six Battle

The top six places have tended to be filled by members of the top four teams. When they have underperformed, Williams have landed three top six finishes with Albon, Hadjar got one in Monaco, Ocon has one for Haas, and Stroll got a lucky one for Aston Martin.

Hadjar was helped massively by how the Monaco GP panned out. The slow driving by his teammate, and the Williams pair, opened the door for him. In a normal race, I suspect he would have dropped back a place or two. Williams have struggled here in recent years and certain parts of the track look to play to their weakness.

Alonso Due A Change Of Luck

Perhaps, one driver who could crash the top six party is home favourite and the ‘unluckiest driver in the world’, Fernando Alonso. Since the car’s upgrade at Imola, he has qualified 5th and 6th. That would be a good place to start on this track.

He has had no luck at all in 2025, but that can’t last. His record here in recent years is pants and it is nine races since he last had a top six on home soil. He was seventh two years ago and I get the feeling that when his luck turns it will do so in style, and at his home GP would be suitably ironic.

The world’s unluckiest punter backing the worlds unluckiest driver is a recipe for disaster, but the odds are a touch generous. That big uptick in qualifying pace is real.

2025 Spanish GP Tip: 1 point Fernando Alonso to finish in the top six @ 9.00 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt