2025 Canadian GP Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Canadian GP betting preview. We did better in Spain last time, hopefully there’s more improvement to come this weekend.

2025 Canadian GP

As we approach the tenth GP of the season, it is a good time to review the state of play. We have had the all-important Spanish GP, the one that was supposed to turn the season on its head thanks to the introduction of the new flexi-wing regulations.

Well, the results of the Spanish GP weekend suggest that very little has changed. If Red Bull had hoped that Barcelona was to see the start of their assault on the Drivers’ Championship thanks to the flexi-wing regulations throwing a spanner in the McLaren works, they will have been disappointed.

Indeed the race was the worst of the season for Red Bull who left with a solitary point, while McLaren locked out the front row and finished in the same position.

McLaren Forging Clear

McLaren now lead the Constructors’ Championships by 197 from Ferrari. Mercedes have slipped to third on 159 points and Red Bull in the mire with 144. The two McLaren drivers are 1-2 in the Drivers’ Championships, with Piastri on 186 and Norris 176.

After his little meltdown in Barcelona, Verstappen is now 49 points behind Piastri. In a car that is no match for the McLaren, that is now looking like an end to Verstappen’s hopes.

It is very likely that Spain will have seen the last of any big upgrades for the rest of the season. Williams had already stopped and I suspect that most teams are now following suit. There may be some track specific upgrades and some more that have been in the pipeline, but nothing that will change the pecking order.

We should be on a very long run down to the final race with few changes in form, of the cars at least.

The 2025 Canadian GP Track

The Circuit de Gilles Villeneuve is a quasi-street circuit, in much the same way as Melbourne’s Albert Park. It has been in use, on and occasionally off, since 1978. It is a fast, low downforce track with four chicanes, a hairpin and a slow left-right combination at the end of the start straight.

This is a real point and squirt track. Straight-line speed, stability under braking and good traction will be rewarded. There are three DRS zones on what is a short lap. Most overtaking is done out of the hairpin and under DRS on the following long drag into the final chicane.

It can also be done under braking into the last chicane but that part of the track is tight, with the unforgiving ‘Wall of Champions’ on the outside. That is the wall against which many races have ended.

Barrier Lined

The track is lined by barriers, and they are close to the track in places, but not in a Monaco style. However, it can bite and it has a very high attrition rate. The first corner complex often produces collisions and the cars can take a battering hitting the kerbs through the chicanes.

In the nine races held here in the turbo-hybrid era the attrition rate is 3.67 and it has never been less than 2, with a high of eight in 2014 and last year saw 5 not classifieds.

The pole position driver has won six of the nine races in the turbo hybrid era. Two wins came from second place and one from sixth.

With tyre wear low, Pirelli have brought their softest range of tyres, including the troublesome C6. These are the same tyres used back to back for the Imola and Monaco GPs. That means the teams have two sets of the harder C4, three sets of the medium C5 and eight sets of the C6.

Smooth Track

The track surface is very smooth and low on grip and they tyres are only really worked under braking and through the traction events out of the corners. With no medium or long duration corners there is little lateral loading to stress the tyres.

I imagine that those C4s and C5s will be wanted for a one stop race, so tyre use management in practice and qualifying will be challenging. The C6 should be a more useable tyre than it was in Imola.

This is a once a year track and the rate of evolution will be high, so timing your qualifying runs as late as possible will be the order of the day. Lap times come down quickly and not just from one day to the next. Every session sees the lap times come down as the number of laps increases.

The 2025 Canadian GP Weather

Rain is often a feature of the Canadian GP weekend, which partially accounts for the high attrition rate. It looks like we will get away with a dry weekend this year, with just a 2% chance of rain on all three days. The forecast is for warm, partly sunny conditions for the whole weekend with Sunday seeing the highest temperatures of around 23 degrees.

2025 Canadian GP: Team-by-Team

McLaren 

As expected, they passed the flexi-wing regulation changes without breaking their stride. If anything, Barcelona was one of the most complete race weekends of the season for them. The best car, on a test track, played out just as it should have.

Piastri now leads Norris by ten points. Not yet a commanding lead, but as they are dropping their nearest competitor, Max Verstappen, it will become ever more tense between the two drivers. It is no longer us against Max, it is Piastri vs. Norris. The gloves will have to come off at some point.

H2H

In terms of their H2H records, in qualifying Norris is 5-4 up, and in the races, Piastri is 5-4 up. Piastri appears to have the upper hand, but Norris is still there with him. Norris has had a couple of bad qualifying sessions which have cost him, but outside of that, it remains very tight.

Piastri has only raced here twice finishing 11/5. Norris has had four races, but only with any success last year, finishing second. His form figures are R/15/13/2. Their car was very good here last year, but in a wet -drying race with safety cars, McLaren did not execute the race well and they lost a race they should have won. Time to put that right.

Ferrari 

It is a bit of a surprise to see Ferrari in second place. It is only a six point lead over Mercedes, but Ferrari have not looked like a team in the ascendancy. Rather, it is a case of Mercedes dropping points due to unreliability.

Ferrari have struggled with qualifying pace all season but are doing better in the races. They have been flattered by Mercedes’ recent struggles, and Red Bull being a one man team. Charles Leclerc has enjoyed back to back podium finishes in the last two races, while Lewis Hamilton struggles.

In qualifying Leclerc is 7-2 with Hamilton and in the races 8-1. Brutal.

This was the scene of Hamilton’s first F1 win and he has won the race no less than seven times, but he looks very out of sorts lately.

Mercedes 

Having a wobble. Their performance at Barcelona was OK. They qualified fourth and sixth, but their races didn’t go so well. The track temperature played against them, with Russell being classified fourth after a messy race, bumping and barging with Verstappen. Antonelli suffered a second power unit failure in the last three races.

Their recent reliability woes (and those for the Mercedes powered Aston Martin) would have been quite unthinkable in recent years. Reliability has been the mainstay of their success, and even since they have fallen behind Red Bull and now McLaren, Mercedes’ reliability has always allowed them to be respectable.

They will have been happy enough with the car’s pace in Spain. Conditions were always going to be too hot for them to be competitive over a race distance but in terms of qualifying pace, they were fine. They too had passed the flexi-wing test with no loss of performance. But there was no gain in performance either, just another DNF for Antonelli.

Strong Venue

Mercedes have won four races here in the turbo hybrid era but Russell’s best result was third last year, having qualified on pole position. He also scored a fourth place in 2022.

This has traditionally been a strong venue for Mercedes in the past. The weather will be warm rather than hot, very much the same as Imola, where we also had the same tyre allocation. The softer tyres and warmer temperatures may count against them on Sunday.

Imola was a mixed weekend for Merecedes. Russell qualified third but the race didn’t go well and he ended up in seventh place, 22 seconds off the leaders. Antonelli just didn’t handle the whole home race thing well and then suffered a DNF.

Red Bull 

It all went wrong in Barcelona for Red Bull. It was supposed to see them jump ahead of the cheats at McLaren and Mercedes, but of course, that was very unlikely to happen. Verstappen was never on the pace of the McLarens and despite making a place at the start, Norris was able to recover quite easily.

Red Bull tried a three stop strategy to wrong foot McLaren, but that was undone with the late safety car. With only hard tyres left, Verstappen was frustrated by his lack of pace and was probably realising that his World Championship hopes had taken a big step backwards, rather than seeing McLaren pegged back.

That frustration boiled over after he was hit by George Russell, forcing Max to go wide. The team advised him to give the place back (despite the fact that the stewards never did). That flicked that switch in his head and he deliberately drove into Russell, got a 10 second penalty and ended the race in tenth place. He also had a little barging match with Leclerc and it was just a very bad day at the office.

On A Four Timer

Verstappen has won the last three Canadian GPs but he now has to cope with others having faster cars. He may find it hard to get properly motivated now. Unless Red Bull have more, significant upgrades in the pipeline (unlikely), he will continue to struggle.

He also has to be a good boy now. He is one penalty point away from a race ban. Does he care? I guess not anymore. A weekend at home with his new baby may seem like an attractive option. His opponents may have a different attitude if going wheel to wheel with Verstappen now. They will think that, for once, it would be Max who would be the first to back out. I am not so sure. Leopards and spots spring to mind.

Tsunoda has quickly gone the way of Verstappen’s teammates. It is just getting worse for him and he looks in a state of despair. The dream has turned into a nightmare. He has never finished higher than 14th in Montreal and even picking up a few minor points this weekend seems optimistic.

Williams 

Safely in fifth place, despite drawing a blank in Spain. Their season is now one of going through the motions. No more upgrades, just making the most of what they have got. They can at least expect to score more points, but just hanging on to fifth is what their season is about.

Sainz has not enjoyed much success in Canada, he did finish second in 2022, but he has failed to score in three of his eight races here. Alex Albon has one seventh place in 2023. Albon is 5-4 up on Sainz in qualifying, but Sainz is 4-1 in the last five. Albon is 8-1 in the races and that is strange given how close they are in terms of pace. Sainz is getting frustrated, but he has the pace to beat Albon once he gets the racing sorted out.

While the Barcelona track was never going to suit the Williams, the Circuit de Gilles Villeneuve, which has no long duration corners, will be much more Williams’ friendly.

This track is similar to Imola in that respect and both feature a lot of kerb riding and of course we will have the same tyres. Williams did not have a good qualifying at Imola, but finished 5th and 8th in the race.

Montreal has not been a great venue for them in the ground effect era however, so it is hard to be totally confident about their chances, but they have to be considered as potential points finishes.

Racing Bulls 

One of the teams with their tails up. They had not been making the most of their good qualifying pace early on, but they are picking up regular points with Hadjar doing a great job. Even Lawson is starting to show some pace, even if he is still very crash happy in races.

They need more points to stay ahead of the unpredictable Haas duo. Lawson needs to get his head down and deliver some more points of his own.

Hadjar has scored points in six of the last seven races and has made Q3 in the last three in a row. This is another new track but not a lot is fazing him and he is into the top ten in the Drivers’ Championship.

Hadjar is 6-1 up in qualifying with Lawson and 7-0 in the races.

Haas 

Still very hard to get a handle on, but looking at the actual race results, it is looking very much like a classic Haas season. Score early and then fade. They have had just the one points finish in the last five races. They are now only ten points ahead of Sauber and Aston Martin!

Ocon is 6-3 up on Bearman in qualifying and the races. The car has decent race pace but in qualifying they have been unpredictable. They are vulnerable now that Aston Martin and Sauber have brought good improvements to their cars.

Ocon has a very good record here, scoring points from all five of his races here.

Sauber 

From the whipping boys to points contenders. There has been a bit of good fortune as to how they have amassed sixteen points from two top ten finishes all season, but there was no doubting that the upgrades they brought to Barcelona paid dividends. That they did so on a good test track is encouraging going forward.

Hulkenberg didn’t get a good run in Q1 in Spain and went out early, but Bortoleto qualified a season best 12th. In the race, it was Hulkenberg who steered his way around with its ups and downs to finish sixth and was promoted to fifth after Verstappen’s penalty.

Hulkenberg is a bit of a Montreal specialist, having racked up six top eight finishes here. Do not underestimate his chances this weekend. The Sauber has been reliable, he knows how to get the job done, and on a high attrition track, the door might open up for him.

New Floor

The Spanish upgrade was to the floor and they have developed a floor that not only delivers more downforce, but more useable and predictable downforce. The car was terrible in traffic and dirty air and this is the fix for that. They can now get more out of the car in the races and have a bit more performance in qualifying. It is a significant step forward, the kind that you can only get from a previously shit car.

They can now follow other cars and get close enough for a DRS pass, something they struggled to do before. Hulkenberg even overtook both Ferraris in Spain! And Hadjar’s Racing Bull. That improved performance came in the first race in which it was used. With more data gathered, there might even be more to get out of it.

Positives

Team principle, ex-Red Bull man Jonathon Wheatley, said “We had a racing car under us today. It’s the first time that I’ve felt that since I’ve been here – and it’s a great feeling.” Yes, they were helped by the late safety car and having a new set of soft tyres available, but Hulkenberg was still going to be scoring points before that.

Bortoleto has made Q2 in three of the last four races. He is 4-5 with Hulkenberg in qualifying but 1-8 in the races. That better qualifying pace from Bortoleto and the car’s upgrade, tell me that Sauber are a team to be interested in going forward. I didn’t expect to be saying that a week ago.

Aston Martin 

The upgrade they brought to Imola has improved the car, but certainly not by as much as the Sauber one appears to have done. At least Alonso manged to get his first points of the season in Barcelona, but it was a bit of a struggle. Their race pace was not that good and it seems that the AMR 25 does need to use up a lot of new tyres to make Q3, and then they are getting caught short in the races.

The tyre wear here is low, which may help them, and Alonso does have realistic points claims. He was second here in 2023 and sixth last year, so it has been a happy hunting ground in his time in green.

It is Lance Stroll’s home race and he has finished in the points here for the last four years in a row. He pulled out of the Spanish GP due to sore wrists (reports suggest he may have injured himself punching something in the garage) but he is expected back this weekend.

Aston Martin have had a double points finish here for the last two years and were not too far off in 2022 with a 10th and 12th.

Alpine 

Despite scoring four points in Barcelona, Alpine find themselves bottom of the pile on eleven points and five behind Aston Martin and Sauber. Alpine are right up there with Haas in the confusing stakes. Whether it be qualifying pace or race pace, they are very unpredictable.

Colapinto is consistently slow so far. Gasly was honest enough to say that he didn’t know why they went well in Spain, and if he doesn’t know, how the hell are we supposed to?

2025 Canadian GP Summary

After the multifaceted Barcelona track, we come to a very different one. This is a high speed, low downforce, low degradation track which is all about straight-line speed, good braking qualities, good traction and a bit of luck. There are no high speed corners and it is all very stop/start in nature.

Safety cars are not uncommon here. Indeed, Canada is the home of the safety car, the first time it was used was in the 1973 Canadian GP. At the Circuit de Gilles Villeneuve there have been a total of 31 safety car deployments and 5 virtual safety cars, which are a relatively new phenomenon.

The five VSC have come since 2017 and we have had only had three actual safety cars since 2017. Multiple safety cars or VSC are not unusual, and we had two VSC in 2024.

Mix Things Up

The safety cars/VSC can mix things up, as we saw here last year when McLaren dithered over pitting Norris under a VSC and it very likely cost him the race win. It can be a pain in the bum if you are on the unlucky side of a safety car, but it is a case of swings and roundabouts in the long run.

McLaren managed not to win here last year, but the car was good, and it is better relative to the competition in 2025. It has great straight line speed and good traction, so it is a good fit for this track.

There is not a lot between the two drivers. Norris has paid the price for some less than stellar performances in qualifying, but he is 5-4 with Piastri in qualifying. It is just that Piastri is more consistent.

Oscar Fav

Piastri is the 2.50 favourite and Norris 3.00. Quite generous prices really. McLaren have won seven of the nine GP’s so far and Verstappen the other two. He was just better in Japan, and track resurfacing helped. At Imola he made a wonderful start and controlled the race on a track were passing is very difficult. I would be less worried if a McLaren lost the lead to Verstappen here.

With no medium or high speed, long duration corners, the dirty air factor will not be such a big deal. On this track when you are following, you are doing so more often than not in a straight line. In which case, you are getting a tow, which helps, especially in a DRS zone, of which there are three. That may make it harder for anyone to dominate the race but get out of DRS range, and the car in front can control things.

Verstappen is going for a record fourth win in a row in Canada, but his period of dominance has ended. He doesn’t have the best car anymore and once again, McLaren are the team to beat. It is a bit of a coin toss but at 3.00, Norris makes enough appeal. He has been on pole for the last two races and looks to have more confidence over a flying lap than was the case a few weeks ago. Hopefully he can go one better this year.

2025 Canadian GP Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to win @ 3.00 with Ladbrokes, Hills

Looking at the Podium finish market and we have Verstappen at 1.67. He only has four podiums in 2025 but his record here is top notch. On a fast, low downforce track he is in the mix. George Russell also has four podiums and the conditions should suit the Mercedes this weekend, but their reliability is a worry as are the soft tyres. He is a 3.00 shot, which does make some appeal.

Charles Leclerc is going for a third podium on the bounce at 2.63, but with the Ferrari struggling in qualifying, his odds/chances could look a lot different come Sunday. I am happy to leave this for now.

Top 6

Top 6 betting is also easy to leave alone. Albon makes some appeal at 4.00. He has managed three top six finishes so far, including Imola. The worry is that Williams have stopped developing the car and teams like Aston Martin, Racing Bulls and even Sauber have closed the gap in recent races. Williams have covered themselves in glory here in recent years, with Albon’s 7th place in 2023 their best for a while.

The points finish market is as competitive as ever. There are many candidates. We have a few drivers with great track records in terms of top 10 finishes. Ocon five from five, Stroll five from six and Hulkenberg six from eight.

Hadjar is five from seven in 2025. This is a new track for him, but it is not the most difficult to learn and he has three practice sessions to do so. The Racing Bulls are on form, Hadjar is on a roll, with great one lap pace and consistent race results. He has only missed the top 10 once in his last five races and that was an eleventh place finish.

2025 Canadian GP Tip: 1 point Issack Hadjar to finish in the points @ 2.10 with BET365

I am also going to have a go with Hulkenberg. His sixth place finish in Spain was no fluke. The safety car helped, but he was already in the points, that was just the icing on the cake, pitting for fresh softs.

The big reason for his pace was the floor upgrade that has allowed the car to follow at pass other cars, rather than losing downforce in dirty air. Bortoleto had qualified in twelfth which showed that the car’s pace was decent and its race pace better.

Hulkenberg is a good qualifier and he should be able to do better than he has done so far. Bortoleto has been getting the pre upgraded Sauber into Q3 recently and hopefully Hulkenberg can qualify close to the top 10.

2025 Canadian GP Tip: 1 point Nico Hulkenberg to finish in the points @ 5.50 with BET365, Betvictor, Boylesports

For a very optimistic long odds bet, I will have a minimum bet on Sauber to have a double points finish. They now have a points scoring race car and they were 6th and 12th in Spain, so not miles away. This is a high attrition track and if you are not amongst those retiring, more opportunities can arise than at most tracks these days.

2025 Canadian GP Tip: 0.5 point Sauber to have a double points finish @ 41.00 with BET365

My biggest worry with the Sauber is that they were slow in the slow corners in Spain, and that might hint at a lack of mechanical grip which may hurt in the hairpin, but you can’t have everything at those odds.

There will be an update for qualifying, and for the race on Sunday.

-JamesPunt