2025 Austrian GP Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Austrian GP Betting preview. We turned a profit again in Canada, hopefully the upward curve continues.

2025 Austrian GP

We finally had a profitable race in 2025. A modest +4.80 point win in Canada was welcome, but that still leaves the account at -30.68 for the season so far. Hopefully the worm has turned and we can start to get back to winning ways on a more regular basis.

The 2025 Austrian GP Track

This weekend sees the action come from one of my favourite circuits, the Red Bull Ring, in Spielberg, Austria. It has a spectacular backdrop with the Stryian mountains looking majestic, and the track itself is small but perfectly formed. The design of the track means it is arguably the best racetrack in F1.

It is like a go-kart track on steroids. It is also built on the side of a hill and from the bottom of the track on the start line, the drivers have to climb through 63.5 metres (208 ft), to reach the highest point, before racing back down, roller coaster style.

There are only ten corners, and three of those are really just curves, but the actual corners are quite testing. The first is a ninety degree right hander which is easy to overshoot and go a bit wide on exit. It is also very easy to trip up over other cars at the start here.

Turn 3

There is a long, flat out blast uphill into the famous turn 3. This is Collision Corner. Hard braking into a sharp, tight right hander. We have seen many collisions here, not least the Norris-Verstappen clash last year. We have also seen Hamilton and Rosberg collide here in 2016, Leclerc and Vettel collided here in 2020 (in the Styrian GP) and back in the days when the track was the A1 Ring, Hakkinen and Coulthard had a coming together.

There is a decent run downhill into turn four, a tight, off camber right hander and this is another corner where drivers tend to get too ambitious and collide with other cars that they are trying to pass. You can try a late braking dive up the inside or hang it on the outside line, which then becomes the inside line for the next corner. There are options, but both are perilous. Great corner.

The track then rushes back down the hillside, through the long, fast sweeping curves of turn five, six, seven and eight, followed by a short straight blast and into two right hand 90 degree corners and back to the start – finish straight. The whole lap only takes around 64 seconds in qualifying.

Tricky Corners

The corners are tricky and when you have the field bunched at the start, you can have collisions. On this track in its current form there have been 38 races and 28 first lap retirements, but there have been none in the last three. There have been seven safety car deployments in the thirteen races since 2014 and as is the trend, four virtual safety cars in the last nine races.

The final corner is easy to overshoot and it has been the scene of many track limit violations. If there is a criticism of the track it is that it is very easy to exceed the track limits in various places and the stewards are kept busy deleting laps time and issuing penalties.

DRS Zones

There are three DRS zones in the 2025 Austrian GP. The long, uphill blast out of turn one is long enough to offer up a realistic DRS overtake, but that is quickly followed by the second DRS zone, on the downhill blast into turn four.

We have seen examples of drivers refusing to take a chance of passing at turn three, as the DRS detection line for the second straight is just before it. By not overtaking into turn three, you then get DRS down the hill and the car in front is easier to pass. It pays to be smart regarding that particular detection point. It is another little thing that makes this track such a great racetrack.

There is a lot going on in every lap and rarely a dull moment. Accidents, drivers duelling into tricky corners, cars breaking down and stewards dishing out penalties like they are going out of fashion. Oh yes, and it rains quite often. What’s not to like?

First Used In 1997

In its current form the track was first used in 1997 but it fell off the calendar until Red Bull made a big investment in the track and surrounding infrastructure. It returned to the fold in 2014, at the start of the modern turbo hybrid era, and it has held eleven Austrian GPs and also hosted two Stryian GPs in the covid years of 2020 and 2021.

Since its return in 2014 Mercedes have won seven of the GPs run here, Red Bull five and Ferrari one.

Despite it being a short 4.31 km track, it is a power circuit. It is fast with four straights making up much of the lap. It is also the third highest track in F1 in terms of altitude. It is 700 metres above sea level and while is it is nowhere near the ultra-thin air in Mexico City, the power units are missing some oxygen in the combustion chambers.

Thinner Air

The thinner air means that cars generate less downforce, which can significantly impact handling and stability. The lower air density results in reduced engine power, making it more challenging for drivers to gain speed. The high altitude disrupts the combustion process, reducing engine performance.

The Energy Recovery System (ERS) also faces increased strain at high altitudes, often leading to overheating issues. Given that we are expecting very hot weather conditions this weekend, keeping everything cool will be challenging.

The power units and the brakes have to work hard here and with the thinner air, it is hard to keep both cool, and it is also a bigger physical challenge for the drivers with high temperatures and thinner air.

The Austrian GP has been one of the Sprint race venues for the last three years, but thankfully, not this year.

Of the 38 races held at this track, 14 have been won from pole, while 23 have been won from the front row of the grid. The pole position driver has won four of the last six races here.

The Attrition rate since 2014 is 2.85 per race. The highest number of not classifieds was seven in 2020. There have been two races where all the cars finished, in 2019 and also in last year’s race. (Norris did retire but has completed over 90% of the race distance and was classified 20th ).

2025 Austrian GP: The Weather Forecast

It looks like we will not see much rain this weekend. The forecast is for very hot conditions for all three days. Friday will be mostly cloudy, 29 degrees, with a chance of some very light showers. Saturday will see more sunshine and 31 degrees, while Sunday will be partly cloudy and 33 degrees.

2025 Austrian GP: Team-by-Team

McLaren

Despite Norris’ brain fade and DNF in Montreal, McLaren are still very much in control of the Constructors’ Championship, and the Drivers’ Championship. Oscar Piastri now leads Lando Norris by 22 points, who in turn is 21 points ahead of Verstappen in third.

This has been a good track for Lando Norris. He got his first F1 podium here and his first fastest lap, but he is yet to win. He should have done last year but he struggled to get past the slower Red Bull of Verstappen and eventually, Verstappen drew him into making an ambitious move on the outside into turn three.

The Dutchman didn’t leave any room and the two collided, damaging both cars, ending Norris’ race and dropping Verstappen down to fifth, leaving Georger Russell to inherit the win. Piastri finished in second place.

Best Car

McLaren now have the best car and it has good hot weather qualities. They can cool their rear tyres better than anyone else and the general cooling qualities of the car are said to be the class of the field. In previous hot races, they have not had to open up as much bodywork to keep the car cool.

That in turns helps to reduce the drag that the car produces. It is interesting that they are the only team running the Mercedes power units who have not suffered problems with them. That may well be down to better cooling.

Both drivers have obvious chances to win. How will Norris react to his terrible mistake in Montreal? It is getting to the point where he cannot make any more errors like that. Piastri is nearly a race win ahead of him now, and while there are still fourteen races to go, including this weekend, Norris needs to stop the gap getting any bigger. Mentally, Piastri is winning the battle.

Mercedes

Russell was a good winner in qualifying for us in Montreal and he went on to win the race. Russell also won this race last year, but it was gifted to him after Norris and Verstappen collided.

This year, he will have to contend with the very hot weather, and the Mercedes hasn’t performed at its best in hot conditions. It also needs a smooth track surface and while this one is not overly bumpy, it is not as smooth as Montreal or Las Vegas.

Russell qualified third last year and the track was 49 degrees, but he was never in the same race as Norris and Verstappen until they crashed into each other. Antonelli got his first career F1 podium in Canada and will be feeling more confident after a three race pointless run. This is likely to be a tougher assignment for the car.

Russell’s win last year was his only podium finish here.

Question Marks

There is a bit of a question mark over Mercedes’ potential here. Their win in Montreal was their first proper hot weather win for a long time. Yes, Russell won here last year, but that was an inherited win. The question is, have they cracked the hot conditions hoodoo?

Maybe not. The Montreal track had little in the way of high speed, long duration corners. The ones that really work the tyres. That would have helped them look after the tyres. This track will be a bit more of a test, not that it is overly burdened with too many long, fast corners, but you have to navigate them 71 times.

However, Mercedes have been tinkering with their rear suspension. It was introduced at Imola and didn’t work and it has been on and off ever since. It was back for Canada, in an unmodified form, and worked well. The team believe it was other changes at Imola that were the issue, not the suspension. This weekend will not quite be the acid test, but it will be another hint. Reliability in general is perhaps more of a worry.

Ferrari

Their qualifying woes continue. Leclerc’s average qualifying position is 6.00, Hamilton’s 7.50. In the races it is 4.70 and 6.40 respectively. It is hard to see how they can win a race from the third row.

Their race pace is good but just three podium finishes for Leclerc is not good. He has one win and three second places on this track. Hamilton has won twice here with four other podiums, but he lost out to all three of his Mercedes teammates at some point and it is not one of his stronger circuits.

Ferrari are still working to improve the 2025 car, while others are concentrating on the 2026 car. They say that there is potential in the design that has just not been realised yet. A good use of resources? No. The 2026 car is a much more important project, but Ferrari have got themselves in a bind.

Underwhelming Results

They broke up a perfectly decent driver pairing to bring in Lewis Hamilton, and at some expense, but the results have been underwhelming. The big boss, Ferrari chairman John Elkann, was instrumental in bringing in Hamilton and he now has egg on his face, and he wants that to end. Ferrari want to see Hamilton winning races and justifying their decision. So, they keep on spending on the 2025 car. They will pay a price for that next year, and perhaps for a number of years.

One of the car’s problems is cooling. Telling the drivers to lift and coast is not just to save fuel, or minimise brake wear, but also to manage the temperatures. It is hard to race, to catch up, if you are effectively having to drive defensively.

We are told to expect another technical upgrade starting this weekend. These will try and address their number one problem of skid block wear and not being able to set the car up with the ideal ride height. It seems that there are too many problems to fix. They have had time to improve things since China and failed to do so.

I think we can expect to see them struggle on Saturday and improve on Sunday.

Red Bull

Verstappen has won five times around Red Bull’s ‘home’ track, with three other podiums and five pole positions. The track being fast and with some fast flowing corners and curves, should suit their car quite well. He will need to get ahead of the McLarens if he is to win, obviously, but with tyre degradation and the general hot conditions, being the car behind his weekend is going to hurt.

If he does qualify ahead, then he will need to do what he did last year and use all his guile to keep a faster McLaren behind him, but without the contact. Tsunoda is actually driving the other Red Bull, but he is pointless in the last three races and has scored just seven points for the team (and three of those in a sprint race).

The Japanese driver did OK in Montreal but, obviously, starting from last place killed his chances. Tsunoda had qualified eleventh but his grid penalty ruined the weekend. He recovered to finish twelfth. He has only scored one point here from five races.

Williams

Starting to struggle? As the first team to shut down on development of the 2025 car, it was likely that they could lose ground to rivals and that appears to be the case. Just four points scored from the last three races. Sainz is grinding out minor points finishes (five of the last six races) but it was not so long ago they were targeting the top six.

Reliability is a problem for the Mercedes’ power units and in the forecast hot conditions, they will be vulnerable to more failures. Albon suffered a DNF in Montreal with cooling problems, and Sainz suffered with brake cooling issues, which rings alarm bells with another hot weekend ahead. That was not the first time that their car has suffered because of trying to keep it cool.

Albon has only had one points finish here, while Carlos Sainz has had eight. Albon is starting to sound frustrated with how things are going and maybe it will be the Spaniard who does the scoring this weekend, if he can sort his qualifying out. The track has a few, long fast corner-curves which won’t suit the car but other parts will be fine.

Haas

I have just about given up trying to call the Haas’ likely level of competitiveness. Ocon was ninth in Canada, Bearman eleventh. The English rookie has now had six pointless races in a row, Ocon two top tens in his last three.

Like Ferrari, they are poor in qualifying relative to their race pace and they are best considered after qualifying. Nico Hulkenebrg finished sixth here for Haas last year. Ocon has had four top eight finishes from nine F1 races here (but just one in his last six), while Bearman won the F2 sprint race here last year and a had a feature race podium in F3 in 2022.

Racing Bulls

Hadjar continues to do a good job. He has made Q3 six times so far and in the last four race weekends in a row. Their race pace is OK but it is so tight in the midfield that mistakes can cost them points. Hadjar has won from pole here in F3 and had two podiums in F2, so he likes the track. Lawson won a F3 sprint race here, but he continues to struggle in F1.

Aston Martin

Since their Imola upgrade, Alonso has made four consecutive Q3s with an average qualifying position of 7.00. Before that it was 13.50, so a huge improvement. His average finishing position since the upgrade is 9.00 (he did have one DNF), and before the upgrade 13.25.

Their race pace is not yet matching the qualifying pace and they do seem to use up a lot of tyres in qualifying, which bites them in the race. At least Alonso is scoring points now. He has scored points in four of his last five GPs on this circuit.

Stroll scored ten points in the first two races of the season, with a fair bit of luck it must be said. There were three more in the Miami sprint race, but outside of that, he has been struggling. No points from his last seven GPs. His qualifying post upgrade has improved by two places, his race results are one place worse.

Stroll Struggles

The car has got better, Stroll hasn’t been able to make the most of it, even at his beloved Montreal GP. He says the car doesn’t feel any different than before the upgrade. Alonso confirms what the upgrade was designed to do. Make the car more consistent in terms of balance and be more driveable. He says that it is and he can now push to his limits. His limits are a lot higher than Stroll’s but that is still no excuse for Stroll’s lack of results. He remains the elephant in the room.

Stroll has had ten GPs in Austria and scored in four of them. He is hard to fancy this time. Stroll himself is not exactly sounding confident. “I know we’re slow and I have a good feeling that it’s going to be case again in Austria because the car has some characteristics that never change and there’s problems, limitations, that I feel that never change,” he said. “So it’s probably just going to be the same again and again and again.”

Aston Martin are another Mercedes customer who has suffered with some power unit issues. This is a track that can find any weakness in a power unit and even Mercedes themselves have suffered here in the past.

Sauber

Like Aston Martin, Sauber introduced an upgrade that has proven to be successful, and both drivers are taking advantage. The upgrade has only been in effect for two races, so a small sample, but the signs are promising. Hulkenberg has upped his qualifying average by one place, and his race average by over seven places. Bortoleto’s qualifying average is up 2.50 and his race by 5.20.

As I say, two races is not a lot to go on, but the first race where they ran it was at Barcelona, which is regarded as a very good measure of a car’s all round performance. And they backed it up with another points scoring race in Montreal. Yes, they were flattered by a few retirements in both races, but Hulkenberg’s pace was worthy of points in both.

Race Pace

Their race pace was the big problem as the car was very poor at following cars in the dirty air. Their single lap pace is not dramatically better, but they now have a car that can race. Bortoleto is one of the drivers yet to score a point. That may change sometime soon.

Hulkenberg has enjoyed some success here. Most recently, he was sixth for Haas last year and he had a ninth and another sixth for Force India in 2014 and 2015. Hulkenberg has made Q3 here for the last two years (he did not run in the previous five races here). Bortoleto won the F2 feature race here last year and was second in the F3 feature race in 2023.

Alpine

Pierre Gasly has scored all eleven of Alpine’s points, with his two teammates getting nothing better than 13th place. Gasly has a 50% record of making Q3 and his average finish is 11.37, so he is a basket case, but there is real consistency.

Now and then they hit the sweet spot. His two best GP finishes have been a 7th and an 8th place. If they get it right on Saturday, he can score points but with Alonso and Hulkenberg now in more competitive machinery, Gasly life is not getting any easier. Gasly gas five top 10 finishes here, and back to back 10th places in the last two years here in Austria.

2025 Austrian GP Summary

The hot conditions at the 2025 Austrian GP, combined with a fast track at altitude, will prove to be challenging, especially for teams that have had problems with cooling.

McLaren look best equipped to cope well with the conditions. Their most dominant performance in 2025 was in Miami, which was a hot one. They lost out to Antonelli in the sprint qualifying and to Verstappen in the GP qualifying, but they finished 1-2 in both races and nearly 34 seconds clear of their nearest challenger on Sunday.

They coped so much better with the hot conditions on race day. Norris was always quick around this track even in the days when the McLaren was much less competitive.

Miami was a decent weekend for Mercedes. Antonelli was fastest in Sprint qualifying and Russell was third in the GP, despite it being very hot. That is supposed to be a killer for Mercedes, but if the track surface is smooth, they seem to cope.

Verstappen On The Premises

Verstappen will not be far off, in qualifying at least, and he may be McLaren’s nearest challenger. Ferrari will try to apply fixes to their car. Leclerc has had some good races here and if the car is improved, he might be in the mix for a podium, but will they cope with the heat? Hamilton has tended to struggle against teammates here and he is very much second best to Leclerc in 2025.

Two teams with real momentum are Aston Martin, at least for Alonso, and Sauber. They are nowhere near podium contenders, but certainly points and even a top 6 can be considered. To get a top six, the likes of Alonso and Hulkenberg would need some good fortune, such as one or two of the top drivers to suffer a DNF.

It can take a few races for the market to latch on to a team’s upturn in form, especially the less fancied ones. Initial good results are dismissed as just lucky breaks. But those two teams have reasons for the improved form. Effective upgrades.

Points Battle

The battle for a points finish is still very competitive. Drivers like Gasly or Ocon can pop up unexpectedly and reduce the number of places up for grabs, but both Alonso and Hulkenberg have finished the last two races in the top nine, and Hulkenberg has not even made Q3 in either. Points are there for the taking on merit, and with some luck, and you can get it here, perhaps even a top six.

Looking back at the last ten races here, we have seen an unusual amount of attrition for the top ten on the grid. A total of sixteen top ten starters have failed to finish. Two years saw no top 10 drivers being a DNF, but we had four in 2018, three in the 2020 race, two in both Stryian GPs, two in 2022 and one in 2017, 2023 and 2024.

If you are able to qualify in the 7th- 9th kind of zone, a top six could land in your lap. And for those 11th- 13th points can be gifted, and of course, they can still be own on merit.

Bortoleto has not managed to finish higher than 12th since the Sauber upgrade, but he now has the tools to do the job, and he has raced well here in the junior formula.

2025 Austrian GP Ante Post Bets

The Hulkenberg top 6 bet is probably a good value loser but he should never be as big as 23.00. Ladbrokes may be a bit short at 8.00, but they are nearer the mark.

2025 Austrian GP Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to win the Austrian GP @ 3.25 generally available

2025 Austrian GP Tip: 0.5 point Nico Hulkenberg to finish in the top 6 @ 23.00 with Betvictor

Not huge value but given his recent record here, and his form since the Aston Martin upgrade, Alonso is worth supporting.

2025 Austrian GP Tip: 1 point Fernando Alonso to finish in the points @ 1.73 with Ladbrokes, Hills

This was nearly a two pointer, but I have one and half eggs in the Hulkenberg basket, so another might be pushing it.

2025 Austrian GP Tip: 1 point Nico Hulkenberg to finish in the points @ 3.50 with Livescorebet

Bortoleto’s first points should come soon and hopefully we can catch him at a juicy price.

2025 Austrian GP Tip: 0.5 point Gabriel Bortoleto to finish in the points @ 10.00 with Betvictor, Hills, Boylesports

I put the curse on Hadjar in Montreal where he had his worst finish of the season. However, the car was still quick and he made his fourth consecutive Q3 on Saturday (but he received a three place grid penalty for blocking Sainz). Albon has suffered back to back DNFs, both with Mercedes’ power unit problems. With more hot weather conditions expected, he might have more problems in his overheating Williams.

Hadjar has won their last three H2Hs in a row and while getting points may be getting harder for him, at least the car has been reliable. Lawson did have an overheating related DNF in Montreal which is a little concerning, but Williams seen to be much more fragile right now. Williams have not scored a point here since 2017 which suggests that this is not a good venue for them.

2025 Austrian GP Tip: Issac Hadjar to beat Alex Albon @ 2.45 with Livescorebet

There will be the usual updates for qualifying and the race.

-JamesPunt