2025 Newmarket July Meeting Friday Tips – DS
2025 Newmarket July Meeting Friday Preview
We got back on track after a dire weekend last week with a decent place thanks to our 22/1 e/w NAP American Style on Thursday. I’d imagine The Strikin Viking’s connections will be pretty pleased too, he’s one to keep an eye out for at Glorious Goodwood. Hopefully we can find more e/w value on Day 2, Dave Stevos’ 2025 Newmarket July Meeting Friday tips are below.
1.50 – bet365 Handicap (heritage)
I have long lamented my diabolical record when tipping Johnston horses so guess who I am backing here… This is a race the yard has a fine record in so if my run is to end, the best chance of it happening is today. Since 2013 the Johnstons have won this seven times and they are doubly represented this year.
At first glance, Marhaba Ghaiyyath has the best chance of their two but Cayman Dancer is no forlorn hope and with odds of 40/1 on offer, he might be worth taking a small chance on e/w.
Off The Mark
Unraced at two, the son of Sea The Moon got off the mark at the second attempt at Chelmsford. The runner up has won since and is now rated 80 and the third won at Doncaster earlier today so it is decent form. Cayman Dancer was then first past the post under a penalty in a Lingfield novice (10f, gd-fm) but lost the race in the stewards’ room.
Good to soft ground may not have suited on his handicap debut at Epsom early last month and he ran well in the circumstances when beaten 5l at Carlisle (1m3f, soft) on his last start (blindfold removed late).
Johnston has decided to put cheekpieces on his charge today and stable jockey Joe Fanning, who was on board for his win, is back in the saddle. The return to quicker ground is another cause for optimism and I expect him to make a bold bid from the front once there is no misfortune at the start this time. At odds of 40/1, Cayman Dancer is the e/w selection.
2025 Newmarket July Meeting Friday Tip: Cayman Dancer e/w @ 40/1
2.25 – Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2)
After her impressive performance at Royal Ascot, it is no surprise to see that Venetian Sun is odds on for this G2. The daughter of Starman is clearly a very speedy juvenile and she deserves to be the fav but you’d imagine some of her rivals will be open to plenty of improvement, especially the C&D winner Mood Queen.
She’s been put in as the rag at 16/1 but the booking of Ryan Moore for the ride catches the eye and the horse that beat her on debut, Nandita, ran with credit in the Queen Mary when 5.5l behind Venetian Sun in seventh.
Fine Debut
On a strict reading of that form, Mood Queen can’t beat the Burke filly but Nandita had the huge advantage of a previous run when beating Mood Queen so in hindsight, it was a fine run by Richard Hughes’ daughter of Kodiac on debut.
She went out and won a Newmarket novice quite takingly on her next start, despite still betraying signs of greenness around 2f out. However, once Hollie Doyle got her straightened up she knuckled down well and shot clear to win by an ever increasing 2.75l.
Clearly, this is a huge step up in class but there’s surely more improvement to come from this filly and her pedigree suggests she should be up to winning at stakes level. Even with just six runners, Mood Queen looks worth backing e/w at the generous looking odds of 16/1.
2025 Newmarket July Meeting Friday Tip: Mood Queen e/w @ 16/1
3.00 – bet365 Trophy Handicap (Heritage)
The interesting one here at a decent price has to be Real Dream. The 6yo son of Lope De Vega sneaks in here off 100 but his mark is due to rise to 106 so he is officially 6lb well in. You could even argue he’s lucky not to be going up a little bit more given the strength of the form he showed at Sandown a week ago.
In that Listed heat (2m, gd-fm) he finished a 0.5l third behind the 112 rated winner Coltrane and the 111 rated runner up Al Nayyir. 2.5l behind him in fourth was the 107 rated Term Of Endearment (who was getting 5lb) so, as I said, a 6lb rise looks lenient to me.
He has gone close off 99 on turf before and while he was beaten just over 5l at Royal Ascot off 101, he has clearly improved since then. The one worry is that this run might come a bit too soon but you can’t blame connections for having a go and odds of 12/1 are just about big enough to warrant an e/w interest.
2025 Newmarket July Meeting Friday Tip: Real Dream e/w @ 12/1 (4 places) nb
3.35 – Falmouth Stakes (Group 1)
I am going to go back to the well with Cercene’s formlines for this fillies and mares’ G1. January was third behind Joe Murphy’s stable star in the Coronation at Ascot and the oddsmakers make her the 2/1 fav here.
However, Donnacha O’Brien’s Atsila turned over Cercene when they met in a G3 at the Curragh on her penultimate start and she had excuses when finishing midfield in the Irish Guineas last time out (yet she still beat January by 1.5L).
This daughter of Phoenix Of Spain has yet to race on ground as quick as this but if she is anything like her sire, she should relish the fast conditions. She’s been given plenty of time to get over her Curragh exertions and I think it is too soon to be writing this filly off. 25/1 looks a bit of a mad price to me so at those odds, Atsila has to be worth backing e/w.
