2025 Belgian GP Sprint Race Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Belgian GP Sprint Race preview. We were out of luck on Friday but hopefully we can bounce back. 

2025 Belgian GP Sprint Race

It was not a good start to the weekend. Our two Sprint qualifying bets both lost. Verstappen was second and George Russell picked up damage to his floor on his first lap and the car wasn’t handling right. He then went out in SQ2 and starts today’s sprint from thirteenth place. So, that was two points lost and our ante post bet on Russell to finish on the podium is going the same way.

Piastri was very nearly knocked out of a strange SQ2 as the track conditions suddenly changed and those out on track in the closing two or three minutes, suddenly went faster, but he hung on by a whisker, before dominating SQ3.

McLaren Fastest

The McLaren is the faster car, comfortably. Piastri was half a second clear of Verstappen and 0.618 quicker than Norris, who had no excuses. Verstappen’s Red Bull has a new front wing, engine cover and updated front and rear suspension, but it wasn’t enough to make any great impression on Piastri’s McLaren.

Piastri was correct to point out that Spa is the worst track at which to have pole position. The short blast into the tight first corner is always fraught and then it is a flat out roller coaster ride down the hill to Eau Rouge, up the hill into Raidillon and then the very long Kemmel straight. Even without DRS it can be very hard for the leading car to keep the lead into Les Coombes.

In his favour is that this is just a sprint race. The winner gets eight points, which are useful, but the Grand Prix on Sunday is where the big points get handed out. Qualifying for the Grand Prix takes place just three hours after the end of the sprint race. That is not a lot of time to get the cars ready for that, more important, session. The one thing a driver must not do in the sprint, is crash.

Making up a place in the first sector of this track is relatively easy for the car behind the leader. The tow from the car in front is powerful and the chaser can catch the slipstream and pass before the end of the straight.

Piastri could either decide to play it safe and let him past or make it hard and see if Verstappen wants to take the risk. Piastri is in a championship battle. He doesn’t need to take risks.

2025 Belgian GP Sprint Race: The Weather

The weather forecast for Sunday’s race is hinting at rain being a feature and it is likely that the teams will want to put more downforce into the setups to cope with the conditions. That means quite a bit of work for the mechanics. Time spent repairing any crash damage means things get rushed and it is a potential nightmare.

All this means that the sprint races tend to be sterile. Nobody takes any great risks and not much happens. There are no pitstops to mix things up and any changes in the grid order are small. Of the top ten on the grid in the Chinese sprint, Hamilton won from pole and of the rest of the top ten, only Norris, down two places, Tsunoda up two places, and Albon down two places, changed position by more than one place.

Miami

The sprint race in Miami was affected by rain. Leclerc didn’t even make the grid as he crashed on the warmup lap. Antonelli was on pole, but he went wide in the first corner and let the two McLarens past and they went on to finish 1-2 from 2-3 on the grid. Drying conditions meant that pitstops were required and it was far from a typical sprint race.

In the 2023 Belgian GP sprint race the first seven on the grid finished top seven in the race. Verstappen and Piastri started and finished first and second. Gasly rose from sixth to third. Sainz, Leclerc and Norris all dropped a place and Hamilton stayed in seventh but only after a penalty for hitting Perez.

The sprint race is a race, but not full on one. I am not a fan.

Piastri On Pole

Oscar Piastri starts from pole and of the last eight sprint races with the new format, half have been won from pole.

Piastri is a 1.33 shot. There is no value there. He could lose the lead at the start, but the McLaren has the pace to get it back. The Red Bull has been set up for straight line speed advantage, the McLaren has more downforce and is a little slower on the straights.

I can see Max attacking, (in a safe way?) on the first lap and then trying to hang on for the remaining laps. The McLaren will be able to stick to the Red Bull, but will it be able to pass on the straights, against a car that will be faster on the straights? With DRS…. maybe. The strategists of both teams will have gamed the situation and come up with their best option.

Low Risk Strategy

My theory is that if Verstappen does take the lead, he will make Piastri have to consider the risks of trying to get the place back, to gain just a single point. My theory is that Piastri will rightly not take any great risk and just hope to put pressure on Verstappen and hope he drops the ball at some point.

Of Course, if Verstappen doesn’t get the lead, then it is a procession for Piastri.

Verstappen is a 6.00 shot to win and Norris 6.50. The driver starting third has won three of the last eight sprint races and on a track like this, it is possible, but Norris is more risk averse than Verstappen and Piastri. He has been saying that the big points are given out on Sunday, and he is right. He’ll be fine with finishing third.

The only logical bet for the race is to back Verstappen. You will know in about 15 seconds if you have lost or have chance. Hopefully he can hang on to at least second place.

2025 Belgian GP Sprint Race Tip: 0.5  point e/w Max Verstappen to win @ 6.00 with Ladbrokes (1/3 the odds 1-2)

Qualifying update later.

-JamesPunt