2025 Belgian GP Raceday Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Belgian GP Raceday preview. James went two from two yesterday with winners at 6.00 in the Sprint Race and 4.00 in qualifying, let’s hope for more of the same this afternoon.

2025 Belgian GP Raceday

The first thing to look at for race day is the weather. The support races have been rain affected, the F3 curtailed and the F2 race started behind the safety car. The rain is showery in nature, not very heavy, but with the trees surrounding the track the moisture is just hanging around.

The official forecast is for a high risk of showers, some of which could be heavy and thundery. The race starts at 3pm local time and yesterday’s forecast was hinting that the rain would be limited to the morning.

As of today, the forecast is for the current band of rain to last until 12.30. The chance of rain actually falling at 3pm is now 60% and that sort of risk remains throughout the race. At no point will the sun be shining and I expect this to be a wet race, with varying degrees of rainfall. It is going to be fruity.

It is also going to be less than straightforward. The conditions, and higher possibility of safety cars etc, means that things can get very mixed up and we could get some strange results, which doesn’t make my job any easier.

Wet At Silverstone

We have just had a wet race at Silverstone and that produced a first ever podium finish for Hulkenberg, who started the race in last place. Lance Stroll finished seventh having started in seventeenth. Pole sitter Verstappen finished fifth, but sanity was preserved by the two McLarens finishing first and second. Piastri should have won the race, but a silly decision to slam on the brakes behind the safety car got him a ten second penalty and cost him the victory.

In races like these I like to concentrate on the experienced drivers. Those that will have driven in races like this and then hope to get lucky. There isn’t a lot more than you can do.

Cars with lots of downforce will have a better chance. Anyone that has gambled on the rain having passed in the morning looks to have lost the bet. The McLarens have a lot of efficient downforce and have set their car up with one eye on the weather form the start of the weekend. Another 1-2 looks very possible.

Big Advantage At Front

The car at the front has the huge advantage of just being able to see where he is going and with the DRS being disabled in wet conditions, it removes some threat to their position. The car behind will have to deal with the spray thrown up from the car in front, but only from one car. Those in the midfield will be driving in a cloud and that is the problem.

If it is too wet, visibility gets so bad it is dangerous, so we have to expect things like a safety car start or even race suspension. Spa was the scene of the greatest scam in sport when the 2021 ‘race’ was wet and started behind the safety car and was stopped after six laps. A result was actually declared, and the fans got no refund. Hopefully it won’t get that bad, but F1 doesn’t do wet races like it used to.

2025 Belgian GP Raceday: Team-by-Team

McLaren 

A wet race should not diminish their advantage. The car produces more efficient downforce than any other so they will have good grip and starting at the front gives then a clear line of sight. Will Norris get stiffed by being the car in front going down the Kemmel straight? Maybe, but I think a wet surface could help him.

Piastri will have limited visibility and that makes going for a gap harder. He is also in the same car which goes the same speed in the same places, which doesn’t help. This doesn’t mean it is straightforward for Norris, there will be chances to make mistakes throughout the race, but he is a good driver in mixed conditions, and he remains favourite in my book.

Ferrari

It was a good result for Leclerc to qualify third, but he was still disappointed that the gap to McLaren was just as big as usual. He had a ‘mare in the wet at Silverstone. Leclerc was positive about the suspension upgrade.

Hamilton is on suicide watch after a disastrous weekend so far. It is fair to say that he is in a huff. Hamilton was negative about the upgrade, but it wasn’t the upgrade’s fault he had his lap time deleted for track limits.

Leclerc is in the hunt for a podium but needs to be smart. Hamilton needs a strong recovery drive, but he is in one of his moods. The team feel that they have made progress and are on the same pace as Verstappen but concede that McLaren are a few tenths ahead.

Red Bull 

Verstappen used a different set-up to outfox the McLarens in the sprint race. A low downforce set-up meant he was faster on the straights, he got past Piastri on the first lap and was able to keep him at arm’s length, because he was faster in the overtaking zones. It was easy really.

With rain forecast, he was forced to change the set-up to increase downforce and in a straight fight with the McLarens with the same sort of set-up he was slower for qualifying. I would say that he is racing for third place, but he was unhappy with how the car was handling with the higher downforce set-up.

Tsunoda finally got the upgraded floor and was quicker, qualifying seventh, his best result in the Red Bull. He hasn’t shown anything to suggest that he is a good wet weather driver. He says he would prefer a dry race. As would their new team boss, but they have gone with more downforce to cover all options.

Williams 

A mixed bag for Williams with Albon up in fifth place, Sainz down in fifteenth. This is Albon’s best grid position of the season and if the car doesn’t break down, he is in a good position to score points. He coped well in the rain at Silverstone and is a pretty experienced driver.

Albon said that they had taken off some front downforce for qualifying as the car was just too draggy on the straights. Will that decision come back to haunt him? Sainz is another experienced driver who is very good in low grip conditions but starting so far back makes life harder for him.

Mercedes 

Russell was OK in qualifying, ending up sixth. They have had a poor weekend, but the conditions should suit him today. He was shafted by a bad strategy in Silvestone and can make amends. Antonelli is floundering. It is all a bit too much for the teenager and a wet race at Spa is just what he doesn’t need. A DNF beckons?

Russell was disappointed with sixth. He was fastest in the fast first sector, which suggests to me that they are still a bit light on downforce. Has he taken a gamble on a dry race? It seems so. “If it does rain, we may be slightly compromised but I’d much rather be starting in P6 with that than outside of the top 10. Let’s see what happens on Sunday.”

Interesting, if it is dry. Toast if it is wet. The team say that there is an underlying problem with the car this weekend and that it has been their worst performance of the year. Not a lot of confidence there.

Racing Bulls 

The Toro Rosso, Alpha Tauri cars often went very well in the wet, but they had a double DNF in the rain at Silverstone. Two inexperienced drivers is a minus.

Sauber 

Hulkenberg is on a roll. Scoring points in the last four races, including a 5th and a 3rd. His average starting position in those four races? 17th. He starts fourteenth today, so he probably wins the race. Bortoleto starts from tenth place, so the car has good pace, but Bortoleto is a rookie and that often doesn’t mix well with rain.

Haas 

Have been competitive all weekend and had a double points finish in the sprint. In qualifying they split the two driver’s set-ups. Ocon has stayed with the same low downforce set-up he had in the sprint, but Bearman slapped on more downforce.

Ocon qualified one place ahead of Bearman, but that was in the dry and Bearman was very unhappy that Tsunoda got in his way at the start of his last qualifying run and felt he would have made the top ten.

Esteban Ocon is very experienced, but it looks like his weather gamble has lost. Bearman is not the sharpest knife in the drawer and you need to be smart in the wet, but he is well placed and in a car with good race pace.

Alpine 

Gasly has been impressive, but the car is unreliable. A wet race does give him a chance to repeat his heroics at Silverstone, where he finished 6th, but he is as likely to have a repeat of his DNF in the sprint. He was pulled off the grid and didn’t make the start, but they got him out a few laps later, but he retired after running twelve laps. Colapinto has been slow all weekend.

Aston Martin 

What is going on with Aston Martin. Filling the back row of the grid from out of the blue. Alonso said that they changed the set-up to prepare for a wet race, but the team just said that the car just didn’t have any pace, which doesn’t make any sense. They brought upgrades for this weekend and clearly they have lost their way, just like they have done for the last few years.

2025 Belgian GP Raceday Summary

Since I started writing this update I have watched the support races. It went from the F3 race being stopped due to the heavy rain. The F2 race was started under the safety car and remained wet throughout, but it was raceable. The Porsche race was last up and ended with a damp but almost dry track, and if I was not mistaken, some brightness in the sky.

That goes against all the weather forecasts which said rain and thick cloud would be the order of the day. The forecast earlier in the week said that any rain would fall in the morning and the afternoon would be dry. Is this a case where the long range forecast was right and the looking out the window forecast wrong? We are in Spa, so anything could happen.

Tough For Punters

These conditions are horrible for punting. The teams have, on the whole, set the cars up for a wet race. The set-ups are locked in from qualifying onwards so, if it is dry, most drivers are going racing with too much downforce. They will be slow on the straights and vulnerable to any car that stuck with a lower downforce set-up. But if the rain returns, it is the lower downforce set-ups that are toast.

Having one last look at the radar and it does look like while there is a break in the weather, there is more on its way. Arriving around 2.30 and getting heavy about 30 minutes into the race, and any chance of dry running looks slim.

McLarens In Position

The McLarens are in pole position literally and metaphorically. Wet or dry, they have the best car. Rain is always a threat and safety cars allow the chasing pack to close back up, but the fastest car is always the thing to have.

The pole position driver doesn’t have a great record here, but I think Piastri will find it harder to pass Norris than Verstappen found it to pass him in the sprint. Verstappen had a lower downforce set-up for the sprint and that was giving him a chunk of extra speed down a very long straight, and he got a tow. Piastri will just get a tow from Norris. He has no inherent speed differential.

Norris is the 2.30 favourite, and the pole sitter has won eight of the twelve races in 2025. Norris won in the wet in Melbourne and Silverstone. The pole position driver has won six of the last ten races here, and while I do think Norris will win, I would want at least 2.50 before considering a bet. Piastri is 2.60 but starting second here has a much worse strike rate than the pole sitter, despite being able to get a tow down the straight.

I will leave the race winner market alone on the grounds of value.

Podium Battle

The battle for what is likely to be a sole remaining podium place looks to be between Verstappen and Leclerc. Ferrari have the new suspension, and Leclerc is making positive noises. Leclerc has had three podiums from the last five races and if he can handle the conditions he is in with a chance. But he has Verstappen alongside him, and he is very strong in the wet, and this is his favourite track.

Verstappen is a 1.61 shot for the podium, Leclerc 3.00. Verstappen is a bit of an unknown set-up wise. We know that he has a wet set-up, but he wasn’t happy with it. Is Leclerc worth backing? I will take the chance that he can get a hat-trick of podiums at Spa.

2025 Belgian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to finish on the podium @ 3.00 with Livescorebet

I am going for an outsider to finish in the top six. Albon is a 2.00 shot which is OK, but he did say that he had taken some downforce off for qualifying, which is a worry. Russell has an unbalanced Mercedes to drive and looks light on downforce. Tsunoda is going well and happy that the new boss, his old boss, has given him the new floor, and he was quick, in the dry. Is he backable at 2.40, in the wet? No.

The two Racing Bulls could be anything. I am not sure about their downforce levels. Hadjar mentioned rain for the race, but that he was OK with their set-up, but I have my doubts. Bortoleto has the handy Sauber under him and he converted his only other top 10 in qualifying into points in Austria, but he wasn’t good in the wet at Silverstone.

The choice is Barn Door Bearman. That is the size of his rear wing. Haas have given him a proper wet race set-up and left Ocon to swim with his low downforce set-up. This is classic small team operating mode. Gamble! Don’t to it in half measures, just gamble. The car was quick in its low downforce set-up for the sprint, so we are having a stab here, but just like Haas, I like a gamble from time to time.

2025 Belgian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Oliver Bearman to finish in the top six @ 7.00 with Livescorebet, Boylesports

For a top ten finish it would be rude to ignore our old friend Nico Hulkenberg. He has been a big cash generator in recent races and it doesn’t really matter where he qualifies, he just makes up lots of places, 4.75 on average over the season, but it was sixteen places in the wet in Silverstone.

2025 Belgian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Nico Hulkenberg to finish in the points @ 4.00 with Betvictor

2025 Belgian GP Raceday Match Bets

I am looking to oppose Ocon and Russell. Both have the wrong set-ups for a wet race.

2025 Belgian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Yuki Tsunoda to beat George Russell @ 2.60 with Ladbrokes

2025 Belgian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Bortoleto to beat Ocon @ 1.83 with Ladbrokes

Hulkenberg looks a good bet to beat Gasly at 1.90, but I can’t back him twice.

LATE NEWS – Hamilton, Alonso, Sainz and Antonelli will be starting from the pit lane after breaking parc ferme regs to make set-up changes.

-JamesPunt