2025 Hungarian GP Qualifying Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Hungarian GP qualifying preview. James has already posted his outright, team by team preview and tips, check that out here.

2025 Hungarian GP Qualifying

The battle for pole position is a toss up between the two McLaren drivers. Oscar Piastri was 0.032s faster than Norris in final practice and the next car was Charles Leclerc, who was 0.399s off Piastri’s time. On a very short lap, that is a huge gap.

Norris has never been out qualified by a teammate around this track, and he has been fastest qualifier in five of the last six Grand Prix qualifying sessions. His best lap in FP3 was a little scruffy while Piastri nailed it. I would say Norris has a bit more to come, if he can string a cleaner lap together. He is 8-5 with Piastri in 2025 and when McLaren have qualified 1-2 this season, it has always been Norris on pole.

2025 Hungarian GP qualifying Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to be the fastest qualifier @ 2.05 with Spreadex

2025 Hungarian GP qualifying: Match Bets

Ferrari are the second best car this weekend, certainly in Leclerc’s hands. Hamilton was better today but still nearly 0.4s off his teammate. I would say that despite Hamilton having such a good track record here, and Leclerc’s not so great, that the Monegasque will improve on his 9-4 H2H record over Hamilton. He is just 1.25 to do so, which is of no interest.

Mercedes have gone back to an old suspension set up to give the drivers a bit more confidence and Antonelli ended up fifth. Russell, who hit some traffic, was eighth. I would expect Russell to be the faster of the two this afternoon, and he may be able to split the two Ferraris.

Aston Martin, a bit of a basket case in Belgium last week, have found their sweet spot here. Alonso is carrying a back injury and sat out FP1. He was a little slower than Stroll in FP2 but was 0.034s ahead of his teammate in FP3.

Alonso Dominant H2H

Alonso is 13-0 vs. Stroll in qualifying in 2025 and he has now out qualified his teammate twenty-five times in a row. That run started here in 2024 when Alonso qualified seventh to Stroll’s eighth. Stroll likes this track and he might just be able to end that horrible H2H record against his teammate. However, he is just 2.45 to do so, and I was hoping for a lot better than that.

The two Saubers rounded out the top ten in FP3, after a pretty anonymous Friday. We are on both at tasty odds for a couple of side markets for tomorrow’s race. Hopefully they can take advantage of Red Bull’s woes and make Q3. Hulkenberg has not reached Q3 in 2025, Bortoleto has, twice. Bortoleto has also out qualified Hulkenberg in four of the last five Grand Prix qualifying sessions, and he is 7-6 with Hulkenberg over the whole season.

2025 Hungarian GP qualifying Tip: 1 point Gabriel Bortoleto to outqualify Nico Hulkenberg @ 1.90 with Livescorebet

The two Red Bulls did not make the top ten in FP3. Verstappen was only twelfth quickest, Tsunoda nineteenth. They were slow yesterday and everyone was expecting them to bounce back on a Saturday, as they usually do, but if anything, they were worse.

Tsunoda was actually the quickest Red Bull in FP2 and I was even entertaining the thought of backing the Japanese driver to outqualify Verstappen for the first time. However, Tsunoda was rubbish today, ending up last but one.

Mystery team of the weekend is Racing Bulls. Hadjar was well into the top 10 in both sessions yesterday but ended up slowest in FP3. He spun when doing a flying lap, but he was struggling all through the session, and Lawson has not been any better than fourteenth all weekend. You can back Hadjar at evens to make the top 10, but after today’s woes, that is too short.

Williams have a very poor record here, but Albon looked quite good in FP1 but he has dropped right off and ended up sixteenth, one place behind his teammate Sainz in fifteenth. He is not in the running for Q3 this weekend and just getting out of Q1 will be a challenge.

Mystery Machine

Ladbrokes have matched him with Esteban Ocon in the Haas for a match bet. The Haas is a mystery machine when it comes to qualifying. Occasionally, they pop up in Q3, but more often they are out in Q1.

Albon is 11-2 vs Ocon over the season and while this is undoubtedly a weak track for Williams, Ocon has been slower in two of the three sessions so far. Albon is tempting at 2.00 to beat Ocon, but just not big enough today.

George Russell is 11-2 against Lewis Hamilton in qualifying and his teammate Antonelli was just 0.061s slower than Hamilton in FP3. Given a clean lap, Russell would likely have been faster than Antonelli. I’ll take a chance on Mr. Saturday to out qualify Hamilton again. The Mercedes is going better with the old suspension and while they may well flounder in the heat over a race distance, he looks OK over a flying lap.

2025 Hungarian GP qualifying Tip: 1 point George Russell to out qualify Lewis Hamilton @ 2.40 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt