2025 Hungarian GP Raceday Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Hungarian GP Raceday preview. James fired in two winners from three tips in qualifying, he is hoping to keep the momentum going this afternoon.

2025 Hungarian GP Raceday

I did say in the preview that strange things can happen at the Hungaroring and Charles Leclerc confirmed that by getting the unlikeliest of pole positions. He was set fair for third place. The McLarens had been comfortably faster all weekend and even Leclerc was shocked that he was able to be faster in Q3.

The track had cooled quite dramatically during qualifying. It was 48 degrees in Q1 but just 36 in Q3. The wind direction also changed and it resulted in both McLaren drivers just being a bit cautious on their final run, while Leclerc just went for it.

The fact remains that the McLaren is the faster car and like eight of the last eleven pole sitters at the Hungaroring, Leclerc is very unlikely to win the race.

Weather Watch

The first thing to consider is the weather. The F3 race was a wet one. A few divers tried to move on to slick tyres but not with any success. The F2 race saw everyone start the race on slicks, but such is the risk averse nature of the stewards these days, the race saw a roiling start. Dry enough for slicks, but safety first.

The forecast for 3pm local time is for cloudy skies and a 40% chance of rain showers. That rises to 50% later in the afternoon. A thunderstorm warning is in place for the whole day. There is a cluster of showers approaching from the southwest, accompanied by gusty winds. Three hours before the start of the race, that band of rain is 200km away but forecast to reach the track at some point in the afternoon. So, we may get some rain during the race, more likely towards the end of it.

Whether the drivers will be allowed to race in the wet remains open to question. It will all be about visibility. These ground effect cars throw up a lot more spray than used to be the case. Once anyone says they can’t see, the red flag will be out, and they will wait for the track to dry out.

Rain Can Mix Things Up

A wet race can mix things up and we have seen some strange results in those conditions, but we are in what is becoming a dry Formula, just like Indy car racing. The irritating thing is that the FIA just won’t come out and say that we will not race in the wet. At least everyone would then know where they stand.

We had the nonsense in Belgium where five drivers started from the pit lane after making changes to their car to cope with a wet race. The stewards then didn’t allow any running in the rain and those drivers were absolutely shafted. Do teams now just set their cars up for dry conditions even if rain is forecast? To have the outcome of races determined by the whims of the race stewards is unacceptable.

I will just have to have two guesses for this preview. To guess the weather and then to guess what the stewards will do. I am minded to think that if we get rain, we won’t be racing in it. The fact that they had a rolling start for dry weather shod F2 cars suggests that we have very risk averse stewards in control.

A dry – wet race could provide a great race, but a dry-wet-red flag-dry race, not so much.

Cool Track

Wet or dry the cloudy skies will mean the track will be relatively cool. We saw the track temperature hit 50 degrees in FP3, but it was down to 36 degrees by the end of qualifying. The hotter the better for McLaren.

They have the ability to keep their rear tyres cooler than the rest of the field which decreases tyre degradation and gives them a considerable edge in hot conditions. That advantage looks to likely to shrink today, but on a rear limited track, they are still holding the aces. If we do get some shine, then the race moves further towards McLaren.

We have had three rain affected races in 2025, including the last two. Norris won two, Piastri the other. Norris started on pole and won in Australia, Norris started third at Silverstone and won and Piastri started second in Belgium and won.

Leclerc Vulnerable

With the pole position driver not having a good record here I do not expect Leclerc to be able to hold on to his lead, wet or dry. Whichever McLaren can get past the Ferrari first holds the advantage.

Piastri starts second and should have the first crack at Leclerc. I feel that Norris does have slightly better race pace, certainly at the end of stints, but Piastri is better at passing. Norris is a little cautious and takes a few laps more before making his move. Piastri goes in hard and fast.

Race Winner

The pole sitter in Hungary has won just sixteen of the thirty-nine races here. Today’s pole sitter is in a car likely to be 0.2 to 0.3 seconds slower than the two cars immediately behind him. However, his car is set up with relatively less drag than the McLarens, and it is faster on the straight.

That is really the only overtaking place. Turns 2 and 3 can see overtakes, but it is much harder. Of course, in a dry race, the chasing cars are likely to have DRS to help them make a difference. That should be enough. The faster McLarens can stick with Leclerc in all the twisty stuff and be right on his tail entering the straight.

Piastri is the 2.00 favourite, Norris 3.25, and for what it is worth, Leclerc 4.50.

Previous Shock In Rain

The last rain affected race here was in 2021 and that was won by Esteban Ocon, who started eighth. Pole sitter Hamilton finished second in a truly bizarre race. But of course, we have to assume that we won’t get a wet race today. It might rain, but they won’t race until its dry. That means it is much more likely to run to form.

Five of the thirteen races have been won from pole in 2025, Three were won from 2nd, and one from 3rd and 4th. Of the non-pole wins, Piastri has won three, Norris one and Verstappen one.

The driver starting second has won the last two races here and three of the last ten. The driver starting third has won two of the last ten here, the last being in 2019.

It all points to a Piastri win, but are odds of 2.00 any value? Not for me. Norris makes some appeal at 3.25 but not enough. It is a no bet for me in the race winner market.

2025 Hungarian GP Raceday: Podium Finish

We backed Lewis Hamilton to finish on the podium ante post and that has turned out to spectacularly wrong. The car is definitely good enough, but the driver wasn’t. He starts from twelfth and in a wet race, might have a chance of the top six, but we won’t be allowed a wet race.

Charles Leclerc is 1.50 to finish on the podium and given that eight of the last ten pole sitters have finished on the podium, that is better value than Piastri to win at evens. But you are not here for 1.50 tips.

In the last ten races here, a driver (or two) has finished on the podium who had started outside of the top three on eight occasions. Outside of Ocon’s freak win from eighth in 2021, all of them were driving a Mercedes, Red Bull or Ferrari, and all but one started inside the top 10. For that pattern to continue we would be looking at Russell, or Verstappen.

Red Bull Too Slow

Verstappen’s Red Bull just looks too slow to be seriously considered. Russell has said that his fourth position is flattering, that the car isn’t that good, even with a move back to the old suspension. Russell has had five podium finishes in 2025, but just one in the last seven, and that was his win in Canada, where everything was perfect for the car. Russell is a 3.00 shot and again, there is no great value there. His record here is also on the poor side.

Alonso’s last podium here was in 2014 and his last podium anywhere was forty races ago. The podium finish market is a no bet.

2025 Hungarian GP Raceday: Top 6 Finish

Our ante post selection for this market has also been shafted in qualifying. Hulkenberg was knocked out in Q1 and starts from nineteenth. His teammate starts seventh. The car is good enough, but Hulkenberg’s qualifying has let us down. He has been very good at recovery drives but making up thirteen places is asking a bit much.

There are some interesting contenders. Both Aston Martins have shown good pace all weekend. From being basket cases in Spa last weekend, they are looking good for a double top six finish. Alonso is a 1.44 shot. He has not finished better than seventh in 2025. He has started in the top six twice but has not been able to hang on. Stroll finished sixth in Melbourne, but he was helped by the race having six retirements. Stroll is a 2.38 shot to finish top 6. Not great value.

Max Verstappen has eleven top six finishes in 2025, but he has not had to start outside the top seven until now. When he has qualified seventh, he finished sixth in Bahrain and was a DNF in Austria. He is just 1.67 today.

Race Pace

Bortoleto starts seventh and in a car with very good race pace. He is a 5.50 shot and might be the only driver approaching a value bet. However, we are on him at 5.00 just to finish in the points and I will not curse him with a double back.

What about Lewis Hamilton? He was on suicide watch after qualifying yesterday. Deep down, he knows the game is up. His one lap pace is no longer there. These ground effect cars just don’t suit him for a flying lap.

However, the car is quick. Quick enough for pole position. Hamilton had been in the top six in all the free practice sessions and his race performances have been better than his qualifying efforts all season.

He started from the pit lane in Spa last weekend and finished seventh. If he can just get into a rhythm he can make up places. The Ferrari is quick on the straights and in traffic, with DRS, he can pick off those in front at the end of the start-finish straight. He has started twelfth twice in 2025, finishing eighth and fourth. He is a 3.00 shot and that looks good enough for me.

2025 Hungarian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lewis Hamilton to finish in the top six @ 3.00 with Livescorebet

Points Finish

We are going into this race having already backed three drivers to finish in the points. Bortoleto at 5.00 (now 1.80), Hadjar at 2.40 (now 1.91) and Ocon at 3.20 (now 8.00).

Ocon was another selection who performed well below the ability of the car. His teammate starts eleventh, he starts eighteenth. Hopefully Bortoleto can get his third top ten finish in four races. Hadjar had been very quick on Friday, but not so good yesterday. His is right on the cusp and with a couple of faster cars behind him, will probably lose out. I am not going to back any more drivers in the top 10 market.

Kimi Antonelli is 1.85 to finish in the points and he has the car to do it. He had a lap time deleted in Q2 and his true pace is a lot better than his fifteenth on the grid. I will have a look at the group betting to see if we can find a better way to use his potential.

Group Betting

Antonelli is in Group 1, alongside Stroll (3.00), Bortoleto (3.75), Lawson (5.50) and Hadjar (5.00). Antonelli starts from fifteenth, Stroll sixth, Bortoleto seventh and the two Racing Bulls ninth and tenth. That is quite a big ask and his odds are just 6.00.

Nico Hulkenberg is very unlikely to win our top six bet, but he is worth considering for Ladbrokes Group 4 where he is in with Tsunoda (4.50), Sainz (3.50) and Bearman (2.30). Bearman starts from eleventh place, where else? Sainz thirteenth, Tsunoda sixteenth and Hulkenberg nineteenth. He is a 4.50 shot to beat the other three, giving up quite a few places. But he has been doing just that recently.

Upgrade In Spain

Sauber’s season only really started with their upgrade in Spain. They have scored points in every race since. Hulkenberg has not been good in qualifying, but very good in the races. Since the upgrade he has made up 45 places in 5 races, 9 per race on average.

He made up sixteen places in one race (Silverstone), which was a bit of an outlier, but he has made up eleven places twice. We know the car is a lot quicker that his grid position suggests, his teammate qualified seventh.

Bearman seems to have a thing about finishing 11th. He has finished there in the last four races and he has finished 11th in three of the four timed sessions this weekend. Tsunoda is hating the Red Bull this weekend and with Verstappen only qualifying eighth, the car is not going well. Sainz is in the Williams which is not suited to the track, and he has maxed out to qualify 13th.

I hate to let Hulkenberg go unbacked on raceday, but I think I will have to ignore him this weekend on the basis that his record in Hungary is very poor. One tenth place finish since 2014 is all he has managed. I guess Bearman finishing 11th will win that group, but 2.30 is not great.

Match Betting

Norris to beat Leclerc looks a decent call. He is 11-2 up on the season and should have the better car over a race distance.

2025 Hungarian GP Raceday Tip: 2 points Lando Norris to beat Charles Leclerc @ 1.75 with Livescorebet

If you like your ‘sure bets’ you can back Max Verstappen at 2.05 to beat Alonso with Livescorebet, and back Alonso at 2.05 to beat Max Verstappen with Ladbrokes.

I want to back Antonelli and as the group bet looks a bit of a stretch, I will just have to back him to finish in the points.

2025 Hungarian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Kimi Antonelli to finish in the points @ 1.85 with Livescorebet

-JamesPunt