2025 Dutch GP Raceday Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Dutch GP Raceday preview. He nailed the winning margin bet in qualifying, hopefully there is more of the same to come today.

2025 Dutch GP Raceday

Oscar Piastri nicked pole position by 0.012 seconds and is now a strong favourite to win the race. Since this race returned to the calendar in 2021, the pole sitter has won all four. It is very hard to overtake on a very narrow track. Down the straight with DRS is about the only place. The starting straight only has a short run of 160 meters into the first corner which makes getting a better start more difficult.

Rain can mix things up but looking at the forecast, the weather is set to be cloudy but dry all afternoon with just a 20% chance of a shower. The weather does not look likely to throw a curve ball into the mix.

Strategy

Could strategy be a threat to Piastri? It was in Hungary when Norris switched to a one stop strategy out of necessity after another poor start. Over a race distance, Norris still has an edge over Piastri in terms of looking after his tyres.

The problem here is that Norris is likely to be following Piastri, and maybe Verstappen for a while at least. Being in the dirty air increases tyre wear so his tyre whispering skills will be negated to some degree. The only strategy he might be able to pull off is to do one less stop, but of course, Piastri is now wise to that threat.

Is this a one-stopper, or a two-stop race? There are two changes this year which may encourage a two-stopper. The pit lane speed restriction here has been 60 kph for safety reasons, but for this season, it has been increased to 80kph. That makes a pitstop quicker. It may be that a two-stop race is quicker than a one-stop.

Softer Compound

Pirelli have brought tyres that are one step softer than last year which again makes a two-stopper more likely. Tyre degradation is higher than in Hungary, which again moves things towards a two-stopper. However, as Carlos Sainz said, most drivers are going to prefer the one-stop option. Making two stops is very risky if you get other cars being able to make one.

The one driver who is ideally placed to make one stop is Oscar Piastri. He has the clean air advantage and is in the car that manages its tyres better than the rest. A one stop race should be his default position. Piastri has converted three of his four pole positions into race wins, only losing out at Imola.

Safety Cars

One thing that can mess with race strategies are rain and safety cars. I doubt that we will see rain in any significant amounts, but I do expect a safety car, or more. Maybe even a red flag. Because this track is crammed into such a small physical area, there is not a lot of run off room. If a car crashes or breaks down, it needs to be recovered and that means putting marshals on to, or very close to the track. That means a safety car is all but certain.

There was no safety car in 2021. There was a virtual safety car in 2022 to clear Tsunoda’s car, and a few laps later the safety car itself was required to deal with a car stopped at the end of the straight.

The 2023 race was wet and the safety car was required to deal with Logan Sargeant’s crashed Williams. Another rain shower late in the race meant the safety car was out again after Zhou crashed at the end of the straight. The rain got worse, and a red flag was shown shortly after that.

Even with all that, the pole position driver has won every race here in the modern era. It does look like Piastri, by being 0.012 seconds faster in qualifying, holds all the aces.

Biggest Dangers

Perhaps the biggest dangers to the McLarens are they themselves crashing at the start or trying to overtake, it will happen at some point. Verstappen playing silly buggers and going kamikaze off the line is another threat.

His only, very slim, chance to win the race is to get the lead and try and control the race from there. He really doesn’t have the pace to hold off the McLarens. Just like last year, after taking the lead from Norris at the start, he would get picked off down the straight. But he still might try. He has shown that he will go for it, most notably in the Emilia Romagna GP.

Verstappen is the only driver in the top 10 to have kept a new set of the soft tyres for the race. That keeps his options more open strategy wise. He may be thinking about a two-stopper.

Last year, George Russell used all three compounds in the race while the majority went for a one-stopper. Hamilton also went for a two-stopper, going soft-hard-soft. Russell dropped three places from 4th to 7th in the race, Hamilton moved up from 14th to 8th.

Risk v Reward

The more adventurous strategies tend to bear more fruit for the cars in the midfield, but there is a possibility Max goes for the soft at the start. That would improve his chance of jumping a McLaren or two. A well-timed safety car could turn that strategy into gold and at least give him some chance. You can get 11.00 for Max to be leading at the end of the first lap.

Piastri is the 1.60 favourite, Norris 3.10, Verstappen 11.00 and Russell 51.00.

I can’t argue with those odds for the leaders, but you may consider George Russell for a speculative bet. We have seen the two McLaren drivers collide once this season, when Norris had a brain fade and went for a non-existent gap in Montreal. We have had two near misses when Piastri tried late braking lunges in Austria and Hungary.

Collison Chance

There has to be some chance that at some point before the end of the season the two McLarens collide. On a very narrow track, and with the two drivers virtually inseparable in terms of pace, this is a place where they may get too close. Maybe the fact that it is Norris who is behind makes it less likely that they will collide. He is a more measured driver and a bit more risk averse, but it was he who caused the only collision so far.

If, and it is a big if, the two McLarens took themselves out of the race, who could scoop up the win? Verstappen has obvious claims, but will the Red Bull be as quick in the race as Verstappen was in qualifying? Maybe not. He often complains about the car during the races, its undriveable and so on.

Before the Spanish GP with its regulation change and car upgrades, Verstappen was dropping 0.65 places drop grid position to race position. Since Spain, he is dropping 1.83 places. I think Verstappen maxed out the car the car in qualifying yesterday. He left nothing on the track and it will be very hard to do that sort thing over the race distance. He was in the fifth-place bracket in practice.

Russell Faster In FP2 & FP3

George Russell was faster in FP2 and FP3. His Mercedes has tended to improve a little in terms of race pace, nothing huge, but he is not losing out on his grid position on average. His tenth on the grid in Hungary does make him look a bit better, but generally his pace holds up in the races, while Max’s drops a little. The fact that Mercedes have reverted to a suspension system that the drivers prefer is another plus and partly accounts for his race pace in Hungary.

The Mercedes was the second quickest car on the long runs on Friday, around a tenth up on the Red Bull.

This is just a long-winded way of suggesting that there is a scenario where George Russell could pick up a win, but it is a long shot requiring the two McLarens to take each other out. The beating Max bit I think is very doable.

Betting Options

The conservative play is to back Russell to finish on the podium. He is a 2.63 shot to so, which is not great value. You can back him e/w, but only for the first two places and if the McLarens finish, they should be 1-2 for the fifth time in a row.

There is the option to back him to win ‘without’ McLaren at 2.85 which makes some appeal. It is disappointing to see so many bookmakers failing to offer this market when we have one team dominating the first two places. It is so easy to do and offers up a much more interesting product.

The sporting bet (or mad bet if you like), is Russell to win, for small stakes of course.

2025 Dutch GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point George Russell to win @ 51.00 with Livescorebet (you can get 80.00 on the exchange, but with very limited liquidity)

Back to the real world now.

We have some ante post bets going for this race. Bortoleto to finish in the top six. That is very likely to be dead. He starts from thirteenth place and while the Sauber has excellent race pace and the team have called some good strategies, on this track, he needed to be in the top 10 in qualifying.

We have also backed Hulkenberg to finish in the points, but again, he has failed in qualifying and starts seventeenth, leaving himself too much to do. The driver starting from thirteenth has finished in the points in three of the four races here, so maybe Bortoleto can keep up Sauber’s run of points scoring.

We have 2 points on Alonso to finish in the points. He starts from tenth which is only OK. The car looked to have very good pace on Friday, but that was lost yesterday. Hopefully he can keep his run of always scoring points here going.

Race Day Bets – Side Markets

There is a ‘Best of the Rest’ market for the midfield teams (basically without the big four teams). Hadjar was excellent in qualifying, taking fourth place. The Racing Bulls were not particularly quick on Friday and second slowest on the long runs, but they got both into Q3 yesterday.

In the best of the rest market, Hadjar is a prohibitive 1.90. He starts 4th and his closest competitors are Lawson in 8th, Sainz in 9th and Alonso in 10th, so he has a good head start on a track were the race order can be a bit static.

The Racing Bulls have not been particularly good in terms of race pace but while Russell will be hard to hold off for long, the Ferraris are not looking at all good this weekend and they could provide good cover for Hadjar and his fellow midfielders behind him. The odds are just not quite interesting enough.

2025 Dutch GP Raceday: Group Betting

We have already chucked a few quid on a mad bet for Russell, but he makes plenty of appeal in Ladbrokes Group 1. Verstappen is the 1.53 favourite, Russell 3.75 Leclerc 7.50 and Hamilton 13.00. I do not rate the chances of the two Ferraris. They have been struggling all weekend and that ‘mystery chassis problem’ still remains a mystery. It killed Leclerc in Hungary and it may well be an issue today. I will break my rule not to back the same driver twice and go for Russell to win Group 1.

2025 Dutch GP Raceday Tip: 1 point George Russell to win Group 1 @ 3.75 with Ladbrokes

2025 Dutch GP Raceday: Match Betting

One driver who is very much out of position on the grid is Lance Stroll. He crashed out even before setting a time, his second crash of the weekend. Aston Martin looked set to have a double Q3 in qualifying but their pace dropped away and Alonso only managed tenth. Stroll had been 8th in FP3, quicker than Alonso, but his crash in Q1 ended his chances.

So long as he doesn’t crash again, and three in one weekend is rare, he should make some forward progress, even on this track.

He can be backed at 1.75 to beat the Haas of Esteban Ocon. The Haas has been slow all weekend and while their race pace can be better, they do seem to have slipped down the order recently. Stroll tends to be good off the line and if he can jump Ocon at the start, it will be very hard for Ocon to recover.

The Aston is the faster car, no doubt about that, and even on a track that is hard to overtake on, Stroll should have the pace to make up places. More places than Ocon.

2025 Dutch GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lance Stroll to beat Esteban Ocon @ 1.75 with Livescorebet, Unibet

The final race bet is on the winning margin. We won it in qualifying yesterday and I expect another close finish today. Of the fourteen races so far in 2025, the average winning margin is 4.329 seconds. Ten have seen a winning margin of under 6 seconds.

Of the last four races, all McLaren 1-2s, three have been under six seconds. Two of the four races here have been under six seconds. There is just enough value to have a bet on under 5.999 seconds.

2025 Dutch GP Raceday Tip: 1 point winning margin to be under 5.999 seconds @ 1.72 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt