2025 Azerbaijan GP Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Azerbaijan GP outright betting preview. Our winning streak came to an end in Italy, hopefully we get back on track.

2025 Azerbaijan GP

Our run of profitable races ended with a small loss at the Italian GP. The account stands at -3.09 points with seven more races to go, including this weekend’s Azerbaijan GP.

The 2025 Azerbaijan GP Track

The Baku street circuit was first used for the 2016 European GP, before becoming the Azerbaijan GP from 2017. It is a fast street circuit characterised by a very long straight (at 2.2 km, the longest in F1) and predominance of short, 90-degree corners.

The first and third sectors are dominated by straights, with the middle sector running through the old town and twisting through twelve corners. A car here needs good straight-line speed, stability under braking and good traction out of the short corners. Baku is the fourth longest lap on the calendar. The cars will reach around 230mph down the long straight, before slowing to 90 mph for the first corner.

Unforgiving Layout

In some respects, it is a little like Imola, but more downforce is required here. It is a very unforgiving layout and the attrition rate has been high in previous years. There was only one car not classified in 2024, but we had a late crash between Sainz and Perez which took both out of the race, which ended under the virtual car.

It has not been a good track for the pole sitter with just two of the eight races here being won from pole. Two have been won from 2nd place, two from 3rd and one each from 6th and 10th.

Accidents are commonplace as just going slightly off line can lead to a loss of grip and a trip into the nearest wall. We have also seen some spectacular tyre blow outs at high speeds and it is a real test for the drivers to keep out of trouble on what is a very quick track in places. It is what Monaco should be like and much, much more entertaining.

The 2025 Azerbaijan GP Weather

Baku is known as the City of Wind. The wind whistles off the adjoining Caspian Sea. To my knowledge, we have not had a wet race here. I imagine that it would be very….interesting, and very dangerous.

The forecast for the weekend suggests that the dry theme will continue. Friday will be sunny and 25 degrees. Saturday will be much more challenging. Mostly cloudy with an 80% chance of showers and very windy. The early forecast had winds at 60 km/h, gusting to 75 km/h, the latest have the wind at a slightly more moderate 47 km/h, gusting to 70km/h. That is still going to be challenging

The wind here gets funnelled between the buildings and it can be quite calm and sheltered one minute, but with huge gusts the next. Qualifying will be challenging. It might also be dangerous. Much of the lap is run through tree lined streets. With severe gusts and the trees still in leaf, we could see branches being blown down on to the track.

Tree Trouble

It has happened in the past, and that was just due to turbulence coming off the cars. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the sessions being interrupted to clear any on-track foliage. You do not want that if you are on a flying lap in qualifying. A yellow flag when you are trying to set a fast time can mean trouble, and it is a totally random factor.

Thrown into the mix is a 50% chance of showers in the afternoon, and we could see a crazy qualifying session. Trap doors all over the place.

Race day is forecast to be mostly cloudy and 19 degrees with the wind dropping to 20km/h, gusting to 40km/h. Any chances of rain are forecast to be around 7%.

2025 Azerbaijan GP: Team-by Team

McLaren 

A rare defeat for the runaway championship leaders in Italy. The track simply didn’t play to the car’s strengths. It thrives on tracks with lots of fast corners and Monza doesn’t have many of those. Baku is another atypical track layout but it does have more corners and needs a bit more downforce, but it won’t be a particularly strong track for the McLaren.

That being said, a track that doesn’t really suit them means they will probably still finish on the podium and still have a decent shot at the win.

It was Oscar Piastri who won for McLaren last year, with Norris finishing fourth having qualified in fifteenth, so they should still be considered fairly strong favourites, but just that they are unlikely to dominate like they have done at some tracks. Norris has always finished in the points in his five races here but is yet to score a podium.

Ferrari 

Charles Leclerc has a love – hate relationship with the Baku Circuit. He has been the fastest qualifier here for the last four years but has not won a race. He has finished on the podium for the last two years.

The Ferrari has been good on tracks with short duration corners and their power unit is said to have good power delivery, meaning that their drivers can get good traction out of the many 90-degree corners.

Leclerc got his best result of the season in Monaco, and while this is a much faster track, it does reward good traction in much the same way. Lewis Hamilton has only had the one win here and only one other podium finish. Ferrari have hds five Baku poles in total and have always been good over a lap on this track.

If you like a numerical progression for guidance, Charles Leclerc’s finishing positions here are 6/5/4/3/2. OK, he had a DNF in 2022 when the power unit blew up, but he is getting closer to the target.

Mercedes 

Only twenty points behind second placed Ferrari. They had a double points finish in Italy and it was a better weekend from the struggling Antonelli. George Russell has had two third places in the last three years and while the car will like the straights, street circuits are usually a bit bumpy, and that is not what they need.

Russell has scored thirteen top five finishes in 2024 and that is where he is likely to finish once again at the 2025 Azerbaijan GP. Ferrari may just have the legs on them this weekend. Mercedes had their worst weekend of the season at Monaco, their only pointless race of the year so far. This should be better, but it may be a bit of a challenging weekend.

Red Bull 

Verstappen was able to take advantage of McLaren’s lack of an edge in Italy two weeks ago, and he does go well on fast circuits which are not too aerodynamically challenging.

He made quite a radical change to his set up on Saturday, going with an ultra-low downforce rear wing. The team were not convinced it was the best way to go over a race distance, but Verstappen made it work. It made him very fast in a straight line, and his job was to keep it on the track on the bits that were not straight.

He may well try something similar here, but it might be harder to pull off. There are twenty ‘corners’ here but nothing in the way of long duration ones. Good stability under braking and good traction out of the many 90-degree corners is more important than aero efficiency, but it will be windy and that may put a spanner in an ultra-low downforce plan.

Stability Key

Being very fast down the very long straight here is worth much gold, but slowing from 230 mph to 90mph at the end of it does require good stability. If the cars are driving into the wind, then that would help a low downforce plan, but if it is blowing the cars along the straight, getting them stopped will be hard, and very hard with a tea tray rear wing.

Qualifying will be the windiest day of the weekend and maybe a car with a very low downforce set up will be more vulnerable to the gusts of wind blasting through gaps in the buildings. It will be fascinating to see how Verstappen approaches the weekend, but I think he will be emboldened by his success in Italy. It might just be a more shit or bust on this track.

Verstappen’s record here sees just one win and one other podium, so it has not been a good venue for him. He was second best to teammate Daniel Riccardo in 2016 and 2017 and was also beaten by Perez in 2021 and 2023. It is not often that he loses to a teammate, but he has a 50% losing record to his teammate in Baku.

He has not always enjoyed the best of luck here, but it has not been one of his best tracks. In qualifying he has been beaten by his teammate 50% of the time also. Tsunoda has had two points finishes from four previous starts here.

Williams 

Retained fifth place in the Constructors’ Championship with Albon recovering to seventh place after struggling with the tyres in qualifying. James Vowles said that Monza, Azerbaijan and Las Vegas were the three races they were most likely to score points at.

Williams had a double points finish here last year. That ended a bit of a points drought for them with Albon finishing twelfth in 2023 and 2022. The key is the lack of any long corners. Braking and turning is poison for their car, and they will be spared that ordeal this weekend.

The very windy conditions may be a particular problem for them, but Albon had a good weekend in the Netherlands and that was windy. It is never plain sailing for Williams but Albon may be able to match his seventh place here last year.

Sainz’ Struggles

Carlos Sainz has never finished better than fifth place and he has been racing in some decent cars. His season just isn’t working out and Albon looks the best bet for Williams. Sainz has never out qualified a teammate here.

If you fancy backing Williams, when to do it is the question. They do struggle to get the tyres in the right window in qualifying, but not always. Their race pace overall has been more consistent and if they flop in qualifying, they can bounce back, and I would be comfortable backing them ante-post, as a bad qualifying is not the end of their weekend.

Aston Martin 

They expected to struggle in Monza and ended up pointless. Alonso had qualified ninth but was forced to retire with suspension damage, when heading for a decent points finish. Their car tends to struggle on the straights, so this track may be another bad fit. That said, Alonso finished sixth here in 2024, and Stroll was seventh in 2023 with Alonso fourth. The Canadian scored his first podium position here in 2017 for Williams.

Alonso has a good record here with six consecutive points finishes, including a 4th and 6th for Aston Martin in the last two years. The team has scored three podiums in their previous guise as Force India and Racing Point, including a second place for Vettel in 2021.

As a team, they know how to set the car up for this track, and Alonso knows how to drive it. It may be a draggy car, but Alonso has to be on the points scoring short list.

Racing Bulls 

Now just one point behind Aston Martin for sixth place. They have had eight points finishes in the last ten races, but they have only managed one double points finish in that time.

Both drivers will be making their F1 Baku debuts at the 2025 Azerbaijan GP. Lawson got a podium here in F2 back in 2022, Hadjar just one top 10 in 2023. The team had a double points finish in Monaco, so maybe a return to a proper street circuit will suit.

As a team, under its multitude of names, they had struggled here until 2021 when Gasly finished 3rd and Tsunoda 7th. Gasly finished 5th for them in 2022, and Tsunoda was tenth in 2023. Not regular points scorers as a team here, but on this year’s form they might get one driver into the points.

Sauber 

Our group bet on Hulkenberg in Italy was voided after he was forced to withdraw the car before the start of the race. Bortoleto went on to finish in eighth place, his fourth points finish in the last six races. He has out qualified Hulkenberg in five of the last six races.

He is another making his F1 track debut. The Brazilian had two solid races in F2 here last year, finishing 4th and 5th. Sauber have been regular contenders for points everywhere since their Spanish GP upgrade.

The team have not scored any points here in the last three years, but with seven points finishes from their last eight races in 2025, they should be very much in the hunt again.

Haas 

Very hard to predict, but their only points in the last five races were scored in the Netherlands. That was a strategy that hit the bullseye, rather than a pure performance result. Their Ferrari power unit may help and Bearman did finish tenth here last year when standing in for the suspended Magnussen. His teammate was just behind in eleventh. They were flattered by the late retirements for Sainz and Perez, but so was everyone outside of the top two.

Haas had a great result in the Netherlands by just staying out on track for as long as possible and hoping for a late safety car. It came, and they benefited, finishing 6th and 10th, entirely not on merit. I expect they will try something similar come Sunday.

Ocon waited until the last lap to make his only stop in 2023 and was met by a crowd of photographers standing right across the pitlane. This has not been a happy hunting ground for Haas over the years.

Alpine 

Last scored points here in 2022 but it is fair to say that the team have declined since then. They have failed to score points in twelve of the sixteen races in 2024.

Gasly finished third here in 2021 for Alpha Tauri, and Colapinto was eighth for Williams here last year, but they would likely need some luck to get an Alpine back into the points this weekend.

Gasly finished twelfth in 2024 but regards that as one of his best ever races in terms of driving performance, so he likes the track.

2025 Azerbaijan GP: Summary

This is a race that has not been dominated by any one driver or team. Red Bull have won four times, Mercedes three and McLaren one. The race has been won by seven different drivers and only Perez won more than one. Ferrari have not won here but they have had the last four pole positions.

For the different driver trend to continue we would need the likes of Norris or Leclerc to win, and that is entirely possible, more so for Norris. Ferrari are yet to win in 2025, but Leclerc has knocked on the door a couple of times.

It is a race where we can expect to see a safety car, and red flags are not unheard off. Some strange things have happened here, like drain covers coming lose, or recovery lorries crashing, so hopefully we get an entertaining race and maybe some unexpected results.

The Tyres

Tyres, or tyre failures, have played a big part in at least two of the previous races in Baku. Things have calmed down a bit since the gremlins of the track have been sorted. The drain covers are properly fixed down and the sharp edges taken off.

Pirelli are happy enough to be bringing the three softest compounds for this weekend. With no long duration corners, tyre wear is not a problem. A one-stop race strategy is still likely for the teams nearer the back, but with the high chance of safety cars, strategy will be fluid, which is another way of saying that luck can play a big part.

Random Factors

This race has thrown up some unexpected results in the past. It is a very unforgiving track. Mistakes can be terminal, safety cars and red flags can turn things upside down, and often late in the race. It is a bit like a very fast Monaco, but with overtaking possible. The pole sitter does not have a good record and it is a hard race to dominate. It is rarely dull.

The Azerbaijan GP is the kind of race where you can take risks with your punting and come up smelling of roses or have a well thought out bet come to nothing purely through bad luck. There are many threats and opportunities. It is not an easy punting track, but it can be rewarding.

Saturday looks particularly hard to predict, if we get the forecast high winds and maybe a shower of rain. I would not be surprised if here are not a few hard luck stories at the end of qualifying. Race day weather looks OK. Still breezy but more than likely to be dry.

Threats

With the qualifying session looking to be full of threats, this is a race where it may well be prudent to hold fire until Sunday before engaging the enemy, unless the early odds on offer are worth taking the additional risk. On the other hand, it could be an opportunity to roll the dice and hope that any luck goes your way. It is all about risk and your attitude to it.

If I was sitting on a +50-point bank, I would be rolling the dice. I am sitting on -3.09 and less inclined to take the risks. Unless the odds are good enough.

2025 Azerbaijan GP: Race Winner

With eight races in Baku and seven different winners, could we get another new face at the top of the podium at the 2025 Azerbaijan GP? There has to be a decent chance.

Lando Norris is yet to win here, indeed yet to have a podium, but he is the 3.00 second favourite to win on Sunday. Norris has won five of the sixteen races so far in 2025. That makes his odds not worth the risk for me. It is unlikely to be a particularly strong track for McLaren.

Piastri is aiming to join Sergio Perez as the only two-time winner in Baku. The Aussie has won seven races in 2025 and is the 2.75 favourite. Fair odds, but do they reflect the higher risks associated with this race? Not really.#

Max 4/1

Max Verstappen is the winning most driver of 2025 who is not driving a McLaren, with three wins. He is a 5.00 shot. Interesting, but this is a track where he has been beaten fair and square by lesser teammates. He may try an aggressive strategy to get an edge, as he did in Italy, but this track, and the conditions, might just bite him on the bum. The odds are too short for me.

What about Charles Leclerc? Winless in 2025 but with five podiums. He has had the last four pole positions here and has had one pole in 2025. The Ferrari’s plank wear woes have defined their season and will they be able to run the car flat out for 51 laps and not have the plank get worn down to DQ level? The very long straight here is the key to the lap. It is where he lost the race to Piastri last year.

Hungary Pole

In Hungary, Ferrari got pole, but had to sacrifice the win to stay legal. They couldn’t run the car flat out for the whole length of the straight at the Hungaroring. Has anything changed to think that they can do it on a longer straight here?

Leclerc is a 10.00 shot and almost tempting. But will he qualify well and then just die a death of a thousand cuts in the race, again?

After that we are into the real wild cards. Russell at 21.00. Surely the track is too bumpy for the Mercedes? Hamilton is 26.00 but has not even had a podium in 2025 and his record here is not his best.

I am more than happy to revisit the win market on Sunday. The same applies to a podium finish.

Top Six Finish

A graveyard for my selections in 2025, which does not bode well. It is a market with more contenders, so it makes some sense on a track that can throw up surprises. There are only three drivers who have not scored a top six finish in 2025, and only two are still on the grid. Tsunoda and Colapinto.

The midfield driver who has scored the most is Alex Albon, with five. Antonelli actually sits below Albon in the table despite being in a top team, and the Italian youngster has scored six top 6 finishes, but just one in the last ten races.

This track will suit the Williams. The windy conditions will not, but they did get 5th in the wind swept Netherlands. Albon just missed out last year, finishing seventh. He was out qualified by his then teammate, Colapinto, and he should have qualified better than tenth. This year’s Williams, despite its limitations, is a better, more competitive car.

Albon is a 4.50 shot. Only fair given his 2025 top six strike rate, but this is a track which should play to the car’s strengths. That is what is enough for me to have another tilt at the top six finish market.

2025 Azerbaijan GP Tip: 1 point Alex Albon to finish in the top 10 @ 4.50 with Livescorebet

Another driver of interest in the top six finish market is Fernando Alonso. He has only had one this year but has had three in the last four years here, and back-to-back for Aston Martin.

However, on paper, this track should not really suit. The Aston is not very quick in a straight line. Alonso loves the track, but is the car quite good enough? He is generally a 2.50 shot in this market, but Livescorebet go 4.50. For me Albon makes more sense.

Three of the last five races have seen two midfield drivers finish in the top six. Two of them saw multiple safety cars which mixed things up. This track is another which can see more than one safety car, so another good race for the midfielders is possible, but I will stick with Albon and hopefully not be left kicking myself come Sunday.

Points Finish

I am not going to turn my back on Alonso just yet! With six consecutive top tens in Baku, and six from his last eight in 2025, he looks decent value to finish in the top 10.

2025 Azerbaijan GP Tip: 2 points Fernando Alonso to finish in the points @ 1.67 with Betfred, Livescorebet

Fastest Qualifier

Only five drivers have had a pole position in 2025. Piastri and Verstappen have five each, Norris four, and Russell and Leclerc one each. Of the drivers on the grid in 2025, only two have had pole positions in Baku. Hamilton with one, and Charles Leclerc with four.

The fastest qualifier market has Piastri as the 3.25 favourite, Norris 3.60, Verstappen 4.50, Leclerc 5.00 and Russell 19.00. Anyone outside of those five would be a surprise.

Charles Leclerc does like a street circuit. He has had twenty-eight fastest qualifying laps in his career. I consider Monaco, Azerbaijan, Singapore and Las Vegas as the true street circuits. Some would include Melbourne and Montreal, but to me they are hybrids.

On the true street circuits, Leclerc has had ten fastest qualifier laps. His strike rate on the true street track is way better than on the ‘regular’ tracks. He was brought up on the mean streets of Monaco, and it is in blood.

The windy, and possibly wet, conditions for qualifying on Saturday might turn things on their head, but he is a good enough price for a bet.

2025 Azerbaijan GP Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to be the fastest qualifier @ 5.00 with Betfred, Betfair, Skybet

-JamesPunt