2025 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Preview – DS
2025 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Preview
Last weekend went well. We landed some nice places on Saturday and Tango Flare ensured we finished with a tasty profit on Sunday. The Ayr Gold Cup is the main event tomorrow, check out Dave Stevos’ 2025 Ayr & Newbury Saturday tips below.
1.15 Ayr – Ladbrokes Handicap (Class 2)
The most well handicapped horse in here is probably Mr King. The Iain Jardine trained son of Kingman ran a blinder to finish a 0.5l third in this race last year off 90 and he is back to try to go two places better off a mark of 81 this year.
Unfortunately, he’s single figure odds so he’s too short for the blog so I am going to take a chance on the outsider of the field, Sex On Fire. Drawn in stall 8, this 3yo son of Kingman ran a lovely race here on Thursday over 1m2f (gd-sft). Sent off at 40/1, he finished just 2.75l behind the winner and he now drops back to his optimum trip.
A winner over 1m at Haydock earlier this season off 82 he is just 4lb higher here and 3lb lower than when he was beaten 1.25l at Chester in May. George Wood, on board for that Haydock success, returns to the saddle, hopefully he can steer Sex On Fire into the money at odds of 25/1.
2025 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: Sex On Fire e/w @ 25/1 (4 places)
1.30 Newbury – World Trophy Stakes (Group 3)
Grand Grey is a horse that comes with risks attached. He is a habitual slow starter and that has proved costly on his last three starts. However, as he showed at Newmarket earlier this season, he is a very capable performer on his day and if he doesn’t lose too many lengths coming out of the stalls, he has enough ability to go close here.
In that G3 at Newmarket in May he was a touch awkward from the gates but he still managed to finish a 0.5l second behind Sajir, the subsequent winner of the Prix Maurice de Gheest. He also had the likes of Lethal Levi and Run To Freedom behind, so the form stands up to scrutiny.
Yes, he hasn’t built on that run in three starts since but he wasn’t beaten that far after a shocking start at York last time and at odds of 20/1, it is worth risking that he gets away better here. If he does, hopefully Jamie Spencer can steer him into the places.
2025 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: Grand Grey e/w @ 20/1
2.05 Newbury – Autumn Cup Handicap (Class 2)
Miller Spirit is interesting here off a mark of 89. Trained by Gary & Josh Moore, this 5yo son of Australia is a horse that enjoys getting his toe in. His last start on easy ground saw him finish a 1l second at York (1m6f) back in July off 90 and while he hasn’t hit the frame in two runs since, those runs came on good to firm and on the AW at Southwell.
Six of his seven wins have come on ground with soft or heavy in the description and overall, his career form figures on good to soft, which is what the ground is currently described as at Newbury, read 414, with the win coming at around this distance.
His only previous visit to Newbury saw him win over 1m4f last October off 90 so he likes the track and his yard has been amongst the winners in the last fortnight. At odds of 22/1, Miller Spirit is the each way selection.
2025 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: Miller Spirit e/w @ 22/1 (4 places)
2.25 Ayr – Ayr Silver Cup Handicap (Class 2)
It isn’t impossible to win from a low draw over 6f at Ayr, as Staxton demonstrated in this race in 2021, but usually, a high draw is favourable. The bookies are alert to this fact though and the top five or six in the betting for this consolation race for the Gold Cup are drawn 14 or higher.
However, in last year’s renewal four of the first six home were drawn in stall nine or lower so I am going to take a chance on the very well handicapped Silkie Wilkie from stall 1.
Trained by the in-form Karl Burke, a year ago this horse ran a cracker to finish a 66/1 second in the big one here off a mark of 99. He was kept busy to no avail in Dubai over the winter and he returned from a 127-day break at York 13 days ago with a solid 2.5l third over 5.5f.
He should strip fitter now, he’s 13lb lower than when running so well in the Gold Cup last year and he has won on good to soft ground. His draw is obviously not ideal but hopefully he breaks well and makes a bold bid at odds of 14/1.
2025 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: Silky Wilkie e/w @ 14/1 (6 places)
2.40 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Handicap (Class 2)
I was tempted to put Our Golden One up here but the ground might just be a shade too quick for her. Instead, I am going to side with Mustazeed, a horse that we backed at Sandown two starts ago. After that contest, I immediately thought that he was being held back for a different race and given his record at this venue (course form figures of 0114821), I am hoping this is it.
Mustazeed won this race last year off a mark of 86 and he is just 1lb higher now. It was bottomless ground in 2024 and it won’t be quite as soft this year but he has won on good to firm, good and soft so he isn’t as ground dependent as Our Golden One.
Last time at Donny he completely blew the start so a line can be put through that run. He usually misses the break in any case but it doesn’t hinder him too much as he is a horse that likes to be held up and produced late. Odds of 12/1 look a shade too big to me, so back Mustazeed e/w.
2025 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: Mustazeed e/w @ 12/1 (4 places) nap
3.00 Ayr – Firth Of Clyde (Group 3)
Soft ground is a total unknown for the vast majority of this field so it might be worth siding with one of the few runners that have experience in these conditions. I was tempted by Lam Yai but instead, I have decided to go with Isle Of Fernandez.
By Lope Y Fernandez, this filly has run four times. Two of those runs came on quick ground at Haydock and York and she failed to hit the frame in both. The other two came on heavy and soft ground and they resulted in a second and a win at Goodwood and Carlisle.
In that Goodwood fillies’ maiden over 7f (heavy) she found just Aylin too good and she franked that form in the G2 May Hill. Isle Of Fernandez pulled over 2l clear of the rest and the third and fifth have both won twice and are unbeaten since.
On her only start on soft since, last time out at Carlisle, Isle Of Fernandez blitzed the field to win by over 3l on her first try at 6f. Given the strength of that Goodwood form, 20/1 looks far too big to me about this filly, hopefully she can run into the money.
2025 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: Isle Of Fernandez e/w @ 20/1 (4 places) Nb
3.15 Newbury – Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2)
The one I’ll take a chance on in this valuable G2 sprint is the David Simcock trained Rydale Frosty. We backed this horse at Goodwood earlier this season when he was the subject of a major gamble but he just missed the places in fourth in that 5f Group 3.
Since then, he has run poorly on fast ground at York but I am hoping that the step back up to 6f here can help him to possibly get his head back in front. His sole win came over the distance at Windsor and while that was on good to firm, his pedigree suggests that he should be fine on good to soft.
His half-brother, City Of York, won on testing ground and his dam’s full sister Costa Filey won on good to soft too. Rydale Frosty wasn’t disgraced on soft ground on debut at Goodwood so hopefully, he’ll be fine on the ground. Jamie Spencer is 4/27 with 13 top 4s when riding for this owner, hopefully he can hit the frame for him again at odds of 16/1.
2025 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: Rydale Frosty e/w @ 16/1
3.35 Ayr – Ayr Gold Cup Handicap (Heritage)
I am keeping the faith with Commanche Falls here. We backed him at big odds when he just missed a place for us in the Stewards’ Cup and he then went on to be narrowly denied in a red-hot handicap at York three weeks later. That head defeat came off 98 and he pitches up here off just 1lb higher.
We backed him in this race last season and he ran a fine race to finish sixth of 25 off a mark of 107 from stall 12. This time, he’s 8lb lower, he has a better draw in stall 16 and Connor Beasley maintains his partnership with the 8yo son of Lethal Force.
Good to soft ground is absolutely fine for this gelding and he is a former C&D winner. He was a fine second in this race in 2022 off 109, seventh in 2021 and sixth last year so clearly, he likes it at Ayr. If he runs to the same level as he did at York, Commanche Falls may be able to make it fourth time lucky in this race at odds of 18/1.
