2025 Azerbaijan GP Qualifying Update

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Azerbaijan GP qualifying update. He has already posted his outright ante-post preview, you can read that here.

2025 Azerbaijan GP Qualifying

This is going to be a very interesting qualifying session, but very hard to call.

The qualifying session starts at 4.00pm local time and the weather forecast is for some light rain around 3.00pm, but it is expected to blow through very quickly. The track should be dry for the qualifying session, but it will be windy. Not as windy as forecasted earlier in the week but still testing for the drivers.

We have seen the form of the various drivers’ ebb and flow across the three practice sessions and with changes made overnight, some are more competitive today. Notably Verstappen.

Norris was fastest in FP1 and FP3 but broke his car in FP2. Piastri has been a little bit off the pace so far, but he rarely plays his best hand in practice.

Leclerc Needs To Be Quicker

We have backed Charles Leclerc to be the fastest qualifier and he was right up there on Friday, but only tenth in FP3. He has also been slower than Lewis Hamilton in the last two sessions. He is not out of it yet, but I would be more confident if he was quicker this morning.

It would seem to be between the two McLarens, Verstappen and the two Ferraris.

Norris is the 3.00 favourite to be the fastest qualifier, Leclerc 4.00, Piastri 4.50, Verstappen 4.50 and Hamilton 13.00. A few firms are going e/w 1-3 places, but most win only, which is poor.

It is not just about who has the fastest car around this track, but who has a good car and gets lucky with the tow down the long straight. Without one, you won’t get pole. There is also likely to be a high degree of luck involved.

Drivers are going to overshoot corners, maybe crash and the yellow flag wavers are going to have very tired arms. Some flying laps are going to have to be aborted and we are likely to see a surprise or two in terms of drivers getting knocked out in Q1 or Q2, as happened to Norris last year.

Wind

The gusty wind is making it hard for the drivers to have the required level of confidence to really attack the lap, but they will have to, literally, throw caution to the wind at some point and just go for it.

I am not going to add another bet for the fastest qualifier. It is wide open and we are on one of the live contenders at a decent price. Hamilton at 13.00 is not a bad bet with the firms that go e/w the top three places, but I suspect there will be one or two faster than him later.

I just read an interesting stat that the driver who was fastest in FP3 here has only gone on to be fastest qualifier once and never went on to win the race. Bad luck for Norris?

2025 Azerbaijan GP qualifying Match Betting

A few of the ‘number 2’ drivers are going well so far. Hamilton being one of them. He is 4-12 with Leclerc in 2025 and on this track, I still have to think that the track expert, Charles Leclerc will be the lead Ferrari.

Kimi Antonelli has been faster than George Russell in FP2 and FP3, not by a lot, but he is rarely faster, so it does stand out. Russell has not been well this weekend, but today it was his braking that was hurting him. If he cannot get that sorted out before qualifying, Kimi may be able to get the better of Russell for just the second time. I suspect that Russell will be able to find a solution for his brake problems, but Antonelli makes enough appeal at the odds.

2025 Azerbaijan GP qualifying Tip: 1 point Kimi Antonelli to out qualify George Russell @ 3.25 with Livescorebet

Down at the back of the field, we have seen track specialist Pierre Gasly slower in every session than his hapless teammate, Franco Colapinto. Gasly is 7-3 with Colapinto but the Argentinian has been the quicker driver this weekend.

2025 Azerbaijan GP qualifying Tip: 1 point Colapinto to beat Gasly @ 2.45 with Livescorebet

To Reach Q3

Liam Lawson has been faster than Hadjar in every session so far. He is just 3-11 vs. Hadjar in 2025 and his odds to beat Hadjar today are just 1.90. Not good enough. However, Lawson is 1.72 to reach Q3. He has been top ten in every session so far and has made Q3 in three of the last four qualifying sessions in 2025.

2025 Azerbaijan GP qualifying 1 point Liam Lawson to reach Q3 @ 1.72 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt