2025 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Update

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Azerbaijan GP Raceday update. He fired in three winners from three bets in qualifying, hopefully there’s more to come today.

2025 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Preview

Yesterday’s qualifying was off the scale in terms of madness. Six red flags and it lasted longer than today’s Grand Prix will take to run…..probably. We had three winners from three bets which was an excellent result in a mad session.

Unfortunately, our ante post bet of a pole for Leclerc ended when he stuck it in the wall. Our other two ante post bets are looking iffy to say the least. My appalling record of picking a driver to finish in the top six continues. I went for the right team but picked the wrong driver.

Albon made a rookie error and crashed out of Q1 and starts nineteenth. Alonso to finish in the points looks promising on paper. He starts eleventh, but the car has been slower than that all weekend. It is too slow on the long straight and he is likely to get picked off quite easily. He needs a lot of luck and a good strategy if he is to do it. At least he is a smart driver and smart drivers tend to thrive in unusual races. Fingers crossed for that one, but I am not optimistic.

Unfamiliar Grid

The grid has a very unfamiliar look to it, outside of Verstappen being on pole position. He was helped by his main rivals all sticking it in the wall. OK, Norris only smacked the wall and was able to complete his, quite slow lap. After his title rival had crashed out, it was a big chance missed by Norris.

What can we expect today? It can’t be as mad as qualifying, but the races here are rarely dull.

The weather in Baku this morning is fine and sunny. Cloud is expected to build and the forecast is for a cloudy race with a 40% chance of some rain. The wind will not be as strong as it was in qualifying, but still gusting to around 60 km/h, so it will be an issue.

How do we approach a race that starts with a mixed-up grid, and may well tend to the chaotic? With caution is the wise approach. Or you can just fire off a few small stake, long odds bets and hope that one sticks.

History

The history of this race tells us that the pole position driver has a one in four chance of winning. This year it is Verstappen on pole and he won from that position in Italy last time out, another track that has a poor record for the pole sitter. Verstappen has gone for another lower downforce set up. That is a good racing setup as it means he will be quick on the main straight, which is the best chance for overtaking, or in his case, defending a lead.

His main threats are simply events turning things upside down. A badly timed safety car or a rain shower. His lower downforce set up is a good racing strategy, but it does make the car harder to drive.

It makes it harder to get the braking spot on and the car will be more skittish in the corners, and the walls are close. It is one thing to be able to do it around Monza, but around a very fast, unforgiving street circuit? That is a tougher task.

However, he is the best driver in the world, and if anyone can, he can. His task is made easier by the fact that the faster cars are all a good way behind him. Norris starts seventh, Piastri ninth and Leclerc tenth. If this was a regular racetrack, he would be home and hosed, but it isn’t.

Max Odds On

Verstappen is the 1.44 favourite and that is very bad value on a track such as this. He may well win, but the risk and reward ratio on those odds are poor, to say the least.

It is very hard to make a logical argument as to who may win. Past form says the winner is as likely to come from second or third on the grid as it is from pole. Sainz starts from second place and the Williams is a fast race car and well suited to the demands of the track. Lawson starts third and I would say much less likely to be able to pull off a win. The Racing Bull is a decent car, but not as fast as the Williams or Red Bull. He is also a crash waiting to happen.

Could one of the fast cars down the grid make a comeback? Purely on merit? Probably not, but this is a race where things happen, things that can seriously mix up the running order. We have had winners coming through from 6th and 10th in the previous eight races here.

Safety Car Likely

The chance of a safety car is very high. The first race here in 2016 didn’t feature one and it was a very dull race. In 2027 there were three, the race in 2018 had two, in 2019 we had just one virtual safety car, in 2021 we had two with the second leading to a red flag, in 2022 we had two virtual safety cars, 2023 had one safety car and last year there was a virtual safety car on the penultimate lap which carried on the finish.

Other threats are punctures which have been a feature of this race, and cost Verstappen what looked like a sure win in 2021. That allowed Perez to take the win, having started in 6th place. Things like the many plastic bags blowing around the track can get stuck in a brake duct or a cooling duct.

And there is that chance of some rain. There was a sprinkling in the second hour of qualifying yesterday. Not enough to actually wet the surface to any great degree, but the painted road markings get very slippy very quickly.

Quick cars win races and even in a mixed up race, you want to be in a good car. Verstappen is in one, Norris and Piastri are in one. Leclerc and Hamilton? Over a race distance, not so much. Sainz is in a decent car, good enough to take the opportunity should one arise.

Mercedes In Podium Hunt

The two Mercedes drivers do not quite have the pace, but both will be looking for a podium finish. The lack of any long corners here suits the car, but they are a few tenths off the best pace. The Racing Bulls have overperformed. Hadjar in eighth is about where they should be. Lawson is a bit of a liability when it comes to wheel-to-wheel racing.

Picking the winner either means going with a poor value bet on Verstappen, or sticking a pin in the list of runners and hope for the best.

Carlos Sainz makes some sense. The driver starting second has won two of the eight races here and the driver starting second has always finished the race, which helps. The driver starting second has scored more podiums than any other grid position, six in total, two wins and four second places. That record should have been better but for Hamilton blowing it at the late restart of the 2021 race going from first to fifteenth.

Sainz Can Score

Sainz is a GP winner which helps. He knows he can do it. The track suits the car, but it is not as fast as the Red Bull or McLaren.

George Russell is a good racer and has picked up two podiums here and six in 2025, but he is not fit and that may tell as the race unfolds. Antonelli has had a good weekend and landed us a nice bet in qualifying, but I can’t put too much faith in him over a race distance on a tricky track.

Tsunoda did well to qualify sixth, but his race pace is poor. The two McLaren drivers have the car to come back and if things fall in their favour, they can still win, but they do need luck. Norris is an 8.00 shot, Piastri 11.00. Pretty short in my book.

I can’t not have a runner in the race and Carlos Sainz gets the nod. He doesn’t have a great track record it must be said, but he is in the ‘best’ grid position. His odds are a touch generous on a track such as this, but it is not a race to be going mad on.

2025 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point e/w Carlos Sainz to win @ 34.00 with Boylesports (1/3 the odds 1-2)

2025 Azerbaijan GP Raceday: Points Finish

We have two points on Alonso at 1.67. He is now a 2.50 shot which is sadly more realistic. I will add two more drivers to that market today.

Issac Hadjar starts eighth on debut. He has picked up seven points finishes in 2025 and he is in the right place. Starting eighth has been a good place to be on this track. The driver starting eighth has finished in the top ten in all eight races here.

He is also where he should be. The Racing Bull has shown top 10 pace all weekend and he is not there due to luck. He has got four faster cars behind him. The Two McLarens and the two Ferraris should get past him, but this is not a straightforward race and he is in a good place to start with.

2025 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Issac Hadjar to finish in the points @ 1.73 with Ladbrokes

We have already backed Albon, but that was for a top 6 finish and that looks very unlikely now. However, the car has good pace and, combined with a good strategy, Albon can make progress up the order. He has a lot of slower cars ahead of him and you can overtake here.

Albon is good at looking after the tyres and while degradation is not high here, Pirelli have brought their three softest compounds. That does introduce a two-stop strategy into the equation. Normally this would be a one stopper, but now, some may be forced into two stops.

Drivers at the back of the grid can start on the hard tyre and run long, very long. If we do not get a safety car until late in the race, those starting on the hards and running deep into the race can get lucky.

Haas used that strategy to perfection in the Netherlands, finishing 6th and 10th, having started 18th and 19th. My guess is that Williams will look to a similar plan for Albon today. The car has top 10 pace, it has top six pace, so Albon just needs everything to fall into place for him to get into the points. The team are quite bullish about his chances.

2025 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Alex Albon to finish in the points @ 5.50 with Betfred

That will do for this race. Enjoy it rather than be having too many bets seems the way to go.

-JamesPunt