2025 US GP Sprint Qualifying Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 US GP sprint qualifying preview. He has already posted his outright betting preview, read that here.

2025 US GP Sprint Qualifying

I’m not sure this sprint format makes for great betting. Just 60 minutes practice on a track that is evolving fast and then jumping straight into a qualifying session.

This season we have had three sprint format weekends. The first, in China, was the second race of the season. Things were still up in the air. The finishing positions in FP1 and sprint qualifying did not correlate well. Only the driver who was third in FP1 was third in SQ.

In Miami it was a bit closer. The driver first in FP1 was 2nd in SQ, but the fastest in SQ had only been ninth in FP1. By the time we got to Belgium, the big upgrades had been done. The pecking order was a bit clearer and the 1,2,3 in FP1 was the 1,2,3 in SQ.

Top Three

Today the top three in FP1 were Norris, Hulkenberg and Piastri. We had Alonso 4th, Verstappen 5th and Albon 6th. Norris was 0.255s clear of Hulkenberg and on a long lap, that is OK. The rest were fairly well bunched.

Across the three sprint qualifying sessions in 2025, Piastri has been the most consistent, averaging 2nd place. Verstappen is second best, Norris third. I would not be surprised to see those three at the top later. They are in the same order when it comes to ‘real qualifying’.

Red Bull Rising

Max Verstappen has been fastest in the two sprint qualifiers held here in 2023 and 2024. The Red Bull has been in the ascendancy in the last few races. Both Red Bulls had problems with the car bottoming out when they went for the soft tyre qualifying sims. They will need to jack the car up a bit, and that may slow them down if they are too conservative.

Of the rest of the field, Leclerc was last after a gearbox issue ruled him out before he could do a qualifying sim. Hamilton had looked good but ended up 8th with the softs. Hulkenberg has to be an outlier given his usual qualifying positions in 2025. Alonso is often very quick on a Friday but fades when the action really starts.

2025 US GP sprint qualifying Selections

It seems that the bookmakers really cannot be bothered with this Sprint Qualifying. Some just haven’t priced up anything, others not offering a full market and most going win only. I’m not sure I can blame them, but, you know, it is the US GP weekend and the American market is starting to pick up, even with F1. Make an effort, guys.

For the outright fastest qualifier market, I think we are looking at three drivers. No great surprises. The two McLarens and Verstappen.

My initial idea was Verstappen, but the fact that both cars had problems with bottoming out when doing their qualifying sims was a worry. Red Bull are very good at sorting things out, changing setups, but usually they have all night to do so. Not a few hours. Max knows how to be fast here and he is in the frame, but the 2.88 favourite? That is a bit short.

Steady Eddie

Piastri is the steady Eddie, always thereabouts, but maybe not the fastest when push comes to shove. He would be a fair bet at 4.00 for an e/w poke, but those odds are win only.

Which leaves Norris at 3.25. He hasn’t been better than 3rd in the sprint qualifiers so far, but he got the GP pole here last year. It really isn’t a bet to be going mad on, but he had his nose in front in FP1 and if Red Bull can’t find their sweet spot, it’s a McLaren match up.

2025 US GP sprint qualifying Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to be the fastest sprint qualifier @ 3.25 generally available

We are on Yuki Tsunoda for a top 10 finish in the GP and he was in the top 10 all session in FP1 until he hit a bump in the esses on his qualifying sim and bottomed out, lap over. He has not been given the new front wing that Verstappen had in Singapore, which is disappointing, but he was keeping Verstappen honest early on. I will have a small interest on him making Q3 later.

2025 US GP sprint qualifying Tip: 0.5 point Yuki Tsunoda to make Q3 in sprint qualifying @ 4.00 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt