2025 US GP Sprint Race Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 US GP Sprint Race preview. We were a shade unlucky with our two sprint qualifying bets, hopefully we get the rub of the green in the sprint race.

2025 US GP Sprint Race

The Sprint qualifying session didn’t quite go our way. Norris was pipped to pole by 0.076 seconds and the bet on Tsunoda to make Q3 was scuppered by his own team making an absolute mess of his final run. He didn’t even get a final timed run, so we have no idea of how good he is this weekend.

Verstappen starts from pole and we backed him ante post at 3.00 to win the Sprint race, as he has done here, from pole, for the last two years. Of the three sprint races in 2025, one has been won from pole, one from 2nd and the other from 3rd. This is a track, unlike Spa, which will favour the pole sitter, so long as the first corner is safely negotiated.

Quicker Red Bull

The Red Bull is as quick a car as the McLaren now. Over a race distance, I still have McLaren ahead, but this is not a full race distance and tyre wear and tyre management are not going to be as much of a feature as they will be in Sunday’s race.

It is also a feature of the Sprint races that the drivers are aware that they have qualifying for the GP a few hours after this Sprint. They are looking after the cars and trying to be crash free. They are less likely to get into hand-to-hand combat.

There is less room to use strategy to improve positions and you don’t tend to get any great charges from back in the pack. Drivers can make up places at the start and after that it gets hard. I am not really a fan.

Max Fav

I expect Verstappen to win and he will go off as the 1.68 favourite.

Norris was right on Verstappen’s coat tails in qualifying, with Piastri third, but separated from Norris by over 0.3 seconds. The rest, led by Hulkenberg in fourth place, are 0.5 off the pole pace.

It does look like a Max vs. McLaren weekend, and maybe a Max vs. Lando weekend. Mercedes’ great run of form has ended, Ferrari are in the mire, Williams are OK, Racing Bulls are struggling. We have Alonso in his usual position, but the outsider who is in the mix this weekend is Nico Hulkenberg.

He has been asleep at the wheel with six consecutive pointless weekends since getting his podium at Silverstone. He has been showing some better form in qualifying with a season’s best 11th in Singapore and he was 12th and 13th in Italy and Azerbaijan. Still, it is quite a jump to 4th place.

Hulkenberg had been 2nd quickest in FP1 and it must be that Sauber have found a sweet spot on this track, and clearly some other teams have not. Hulkenberg is just 1.33 to finish in the top 6 today and that is not worth bothering with.

Points

The points only go down to eighth place in the Sprint. It is hard to see too much hard racing for a point or two but the start is an opportunity for the likes of Carlos Sainz to make up a place and get an additional point. He had car problems in FP1 but Albon was 6th in that session. Sainz starts in seventh and the car looks to have enough pace to keep him in the top eight.

Sainz started 6th in the Belgian Sprint and finished 6th. The driver starting seventh in the three Sprint races in 2025 have finished 3rd, 7th and 7th. As I said, not a lot tends to happen so long as the start goes OK.

Sainz is 1.67 for a points finish which is a bit short on value and it is hard to see much worth bothering with, as is usually the case with Sprint races.

The only bet I will make is for nothing to happen with the top 3 and they come home in the same order as they started.

2025 US GP sprint race Tip: 1 point Race classification: 1. Verstappen, 2. Norris and 3. Piastri @ 2.75 with Ladbrokes

Back again for qualifying proper, but I am not expecting much of interest.

-JamesPunt