2025 Mexico GP Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Mexico GP outright betting preview. Max Verstappen closed the gap to both McLaren drivers in the US, can he close it further this weekend?

2025 Mexico GP

It was a very frustrating US GP weekend. The two bets in the initial preview both won, but that was that. Six consecutive losers with a couple hitting the post, but at least the stakes were small and the loss just 1 point. That leaves us with five races to go and still -3.13 points down. It is getting tight to turn it around. The first nine races were all losers, and it seems the season is ending in as unpredictable fashion as it started.

The only trend that is clear is that Verstappen is on the march. Red Bull’s decision to divert resources from their 2026 program was completely against the grain and apparently illogical, but they have succeeded in making the Red Bull a winning car again, for Verstappen at least. He continues to take chunks out of McLaren’s lead, but is it inevitable that Verstappen will catch and pass both McLaren drivers?

Piastri Under Pressure

Only if he is near perfect and the McLarens underperform. It is fair to say that McLaren have not been perfect, but a rare mechanical fault in the Netherlands was the main cause for Norris’ current position, that and his brain fade in Montreal.

Piastri has just got a bit tight in my opinion. After Norris’s DNF at Zandvoort he was 34 points clear of Norris and 104 ahead of Verstappen. One hand on the trophy and all that.

Just One Podium

Since then, Piastri has scored just one podium and lost out to Norris, and especially Verstappen, in every race weekend. The respective gaps are 14 and 40. He might complain about being hit by Norris in Singapore, but the fact remains that he was also just slower in the race. Norris was the one with car damage, but Piastri was slower.

He had screwed everything up all by himself in Azerbaijan, and in Texas, it was his reckless turn on the first corner of the sprint race which led to both McLarens scoring no sprint points. Come the race, he was just slower again. Piastri is the rabbit in the headlights, but now there are two sets coming at him.

However, he is still in the lead with five races to go. If he can gather himself together, he is in the box seat. Or is the Red Bull just too fast for the McLaren?

Level Pegging

I don’t think so. They are now much the same. Norris and Verstappen had very similar race pace in Texas. The difference was that Verstappen was in front in clean air, while Norris was passed by the soft tyred Leclerc at the start. It took him too long to get past the Ferrari and that allowed Verstappen to have a comfortable race at the front, but he did say that the race worked out well for him, as did the sprint.

What Verstappen has is momentum and his talent. He has scored 119 out of a possible 133 points from the last five races. He has had three of the last four pole positions and that seems to be the key. McLaren had a tyre wear advantage for most of the season and could recover over a race distance, but now, if Max is ahead on the track, they have no pace advantage to make that up, or at least not enough.

Max Experienced

Verstappen is experienced in these situations and used to coming out on top. Norris has had one season of it and lost. It is a new experience for Piastri. It is unusual, in recent times, to have a three-way fight.

Piastri has had his eyes only on Norris, and looked to have had him in his pocket, until Azerbaijan. Now he is being closed down on two fronts. It does look like he is getting tight. He is a very laid-back character, but he has found his pulse, and the rate is going up. He is out of his comfort zone.

Norris will be feeling the better of the two McLaren drivers. He has closed the gap to his teammate and is within striking distance. He still has his eyes on the prize. Verstappen is just looking at the gap. It is a big handicap, but he is eating up that gap at a rate of knots, but he can’t afford to slip up.

At this moment, Norris and Verstappen look the happier of the three.

Championship Odds

The odds for the drivers’ Championship are Piastri 2.75, Verstappen 2.88 and Norris 3.00. No great value in any in my opinion, but I certainly wouldn’t be getting on Piastri just now.

Anyway, what about the 2025 Mexico GP this weekend?

The first thing to note is that this weekend will see a lot of Rookies running in FP1, so various drivers will be sitting out the Friday morning session, hoping that the youngsters don’t trash their cars. Those sitting the session out are Norris, Verstappen, Russell, Hamilton, Sainz, Stroll and Bearman. This a bit tough on Bearman who is making his debut here, but he did sit for Charles Leclerc at Ferrari for FP1 last year.

2025 Mexico GP: The Track

The outstanding feature of this track is that it is 2,200 meters above sea level. That makes the air very thin and that has an impact on fuel combustion, on drag and driver fatigue. The less oxygen in the air lowers the power produced from the internal combustion engine.

That affects all the power units, but in the past, not all equally. The Honda power units have had a power advantage due to the way its turbo worked. It was able to spin faster and get more of what oxygen there was into the combustion units.

Thin Air

The thin air means that draggy cars are not as impacted as they are at sea level. If your car normally suffers with a lack of straight-line speed, this layout will be better for your car.

It also means that the DRS is less effective. Getting a close-up tow down the straights is more effective than opening a relatively small slot on the rear wing.

The drivers will feel more tired than normal as they have less oxygen to pump around their bodies and any driver who is not feeling well, or isn’t fit (which should be none these days), will struggle a lot more here than any other track.

Cooling the car can also be harder in this air.

Track Layout

The layout of the track is a bit meh. It features a very long straight which leads into a tight right, left, right corner complex. It is very hard to get everyone through the complex at the race start without some contact. Cars will try and get a tow, brake late and make a move, only to drive into the back of someone. It is not unlike the start at Monza, only with a much longer run up.

The track features seventeen corners and most of them are slow, short duration corners, with the exception of corners 7 through 11, which are like mini Suzuka esses. The third sector is a very slow technical section which goes through the grandstands which were part of a baseball stadium.

Long Straight

Despite the long straight, only 54% of the lap is taken flat out, such is the impact of the slow, twisty stadium section. It is OK at best and a bit artificial at worst, but it can produce some drama, usually cars tripping over each other, trying to overtake here it is not easy to do so.

Since 2015, when the circuit rejoined the calendar, the pole position driver has won four of the nine races, the second placed driver has won three and the third placed driver twice. The attrition rate averages out at 3.57 per race. There has always been at least one not classified driver, with a high of five in 2017. Mechanical problems are less common as the teams have learned how to cope with the climatic conditions.

2025 Mexico GP: Past Winners

The worry for McLaren is that this is a Max track. He has won five GPs here in the last seven races. He even won two with what were Renault powered cars. Red Bull know how to win here.

Since F1 returned here in 2015, Mercedes have won three times, two for Hamilton, Red Bull five and it was Carlos Sainz who won for Ferrari in 2024. The race was marked by Verstappen clashing with pole sitter Carlos Sainz on lap one and later with Lando Norris, pushing him off the track twice and picking up two 10 second penalties for his efforts.

Verstappen was well ahead in the Championship at that point and was perfectly happy to crash into anyone he saw as a threat. He has to be more circumspect now, but he knows that neither McLaren driver will want to get involved in hand-to-hand combat. So, don’t think that he won’t lean on them if necessary.

2025 Mexico GP: The Weather Forecast

A very pleasant weekend lies ahead. Between 25 and 27 degrees, sunny and no chance of any rain for all three days.

Team-by-Team Outlook

McLaren 

Under pressure sums it up, especially on Piastri’s side of the garage. Norris will be looking to beat his teammate for the fifth race weekend in a row. Piastri has had two races here, finishing eighth on both occasions.

Lando Norris has improved his finishing position in each of his five races here. His form figures are R/10/9/5/2. The only way he can continue that is to win. He has performed well here in the past and he is in contention for the win.

Mercedes 

Now just seven points ahead of Ferrari. George Russell is in good form but lost ground in Texas, finishing sixth. He has never finished better than fourth here and Mercedes have not won here for the last five years.

Antonelli has been getting better but this is another new track for him and it is not just another straightforward weekend, as he will have to get used to the thin air and how that affects the car.

Ferrari 

Still as hard to work out as usual. Blowing hot and cold, not just from track to track, but from session to session. Leclerc has been third here for the last two years and Ferrari got pole and won the race with Carlos Sainz last year. Your guess is as good as mine. They have a decent record here and have scored a double top 6 finish here in the last eight races here. That record might be under threat this year.

Red Bull 

Still just fourth in the Constructors’ table thanks to it being a one man team. Tsunoda is getting more comfortable with the upgraded car, but he wasn’t given the new front wing in Texas. That is now two races where Verstappen has had it, but not Yuki.

Still, he has now scored points in three of the last five GPs and also picked up a couple in last weekend’s Sprint race. The team are now just three points behind Ferrari, and every point counts, so Yuki’s contribution is suddenly quite important.

Verstappen has a very strong record here, but Tsunoda must hate the sight of the place as he has had three DNFs and a 12th. Verstappen has only started from pole once here.

Williams 

Scored nine points in last weekend’s Sprint race, mostly through others’ misfortune, but drew a blank in the GP. Whatever happens with Williams this weekend, there will be something dramatic, but not necessarily good. It seems they can only have one driver at a time having a good weekend which makes them hard to bet on.

Aston Martin 

Alonso keeps dragging out points finishes. That is eight from the last eleven races but he is getting frustrated that their pace gets worse as the weekend goes along. He has not enjoyed his visits to Mexico very much over the years, with just two top 10s and four DNFs.

Aston Martin have failed to score here in the last three years, nor reached Q3 with either car in the last six. I thought this track may be good for them as the thin air might mask their straight-line speed deficit. We shall see.

Racing Bulls 

It has been a mixed bag for this team over the years. Yuki Tsunoda has spent a lot of their money fixing his cars. He has crashed out at the first corner in two of his three years at the Red Bull junior team. Gasly was fourth in 2012, which was their best result. Their recent form has seen back-to-back pointless GPs and the wind has gone out of their sails a bit.

Sauber 

Hulkenberg scored his first points for six races when he finished 8th in Texas. He was very good in Sprint qualifying but was shunted out at the first corner. The team have not scored here in the last two years, but they are in better shape now. Hulkenberg has scored points in five of his seven races here and he could be back in the frame for another.

Haas 

Back-to-back ninth places for Bearman in the last two GPs, but he is still a bit erratic for my liking. He is giving Ocon a schooling in qualifying and that puts him in a good position to be their lead driver once again. Sitting out FP1 is not ideal for an inexperienced driver, however.

Alpine 

Gasly finished 10th here last year and the team has picked up at least one point in all of the last six races in Mexico. Perhaps the thin air suits their rather underpowered engines, or at least it levels the playing field. Gasly has finished 13/10/9/4/11/11/10 in his seven appearances here, so he might be a dark horse for another points finish, if we get a bit of attrition.

2025 Mexico GP Summary

We have the luxury of this not being a rushed Sprint race weekend, so there is time to get a feel for what is going on.

The early prices have Verstappen as the 2.38 favourite, Norris, 3.75 and Piastri 5.50. I suppose with a lot of short duration corners we can consider Russell as a very dark horse at 17.00, but that is hardly a real outsider’s price.

I am happy to be patient.

There are three small stake, long odds bets that I will strike for now. All are very speculative and nothing to go mad on, but there may be some value in them.

The first is on Pierre Gasly to finish in the points. He turned up here last year with just one top ten from his previous nine races and qualified 8th and finished 10th. This year, it is only six races since his last points finish, so much the same state of mediocrity. Maybe there is something in the Mexico City air, or lack of it, that helps the Alpine be more competitive?

2025 Mexico GP Tip: 0.5 point Pierre Gasly to finish in the points @ 9.00 generally available

Last weekend we had an ante post bet on Tsunoda to finish in the points, and he did. He is a driver of interest as the car has been improved in recent weeks. He is also driving for his career. Certainly, his career at Red Bull.

With Honda heading off to Aston Martin, he hasn’t got the Japanese company keeping him at Red Bull. His best hope is to do enough to earn a drive at Racing Bulls. He will be giving it the full beans, and that might be a problem here.

His record in Mexico City is R/R/12/R. He has been the first driver to retire on three occasions, which is a hell of a strike rate in four races, and not in a good way.

Poor Track Record

On his first visit to Mexico City in 2022 he collided with Mick Schumacher on the first lap and both were out. In 2023 he waited to lap 50 before colliding with someone and retiring. He was the only, and thus first, driver to not finish. In 2023 Tsunoda had learned his lessons and finished the race in 12th, making up six places. Last year, he reverted to type and collided with Alex Albon at the start and both retired.

If a driver shares the first retirement with another, or multiple drivers, your stake is divided by the number of drivers to retire on that lap. In this case, half your stakes would have been paid out at the full odds twice, and the whole shebang in the other. It is still a long shot, but the odds are good enough.

2025 Mexico GP Tip: 0.5 point Yuki Tsunoda to be the first driver to retire @ 23.00 with Ladbrokes

You can also just back Tsunoda not to be classified, i.e. to retire at any time in the first 90% of the race distance (FIA definition of Not Classified), and he has done that in three of his four races here, but only once in 2025. For the latter reason, it is just another 0.5 point stake wager.

2025 Mexico GP Tip: 0.5 point Yuki Tsunoda not to be classified @ 7.50 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt