2025 Mexico GP Raceday Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Mexico GP Raceday preview. The maestro fired in two winners from two bets in qualifying, more of the same please this evening.

2025 Mexico GP Raceday

Yesterday’s qualifying went well and does it mean that the Drivers’ Championship is taking another turn? Norris starts from pole position with his two championship rivals back in fifth and seventh.

The problem for Norris is that pole position on this track is not the place to be. The run down into the first corner is the longest on the calendar and the pole sitter just punches a hole in the thin air and gives the following cars a very effective tow. He will be under attack into the first corner without doubt. He may be better off expecting it and accepting it. The McLaren has very strong race pace on this track and he can recover the lead. Rather that, than getting involved in close racing and the very real chance of a collision.

Avoid Trouble

Since this race returned to the calendar in 2015, the pole sitter has won it four times from the nine races. It is not a hopeless task and Norris has the car to win it, but he must not crash on lap one.

The two Ferraris starting second and third will be on the attack and one may take the lead, but the question is, could they hold on to it? The team were worried about tyre degradation on their long runs. The team are now also talking about a possible race win.

The drivers starting second and third have both won since the 2015 return. The driver starting second has won twice, and the driver starting third has won three times. Starting third means you have two cars punching a hole in the air and that is a powerful weapon on this layout.

The driver starting third has been first or second for the last five races here, so we should be looking at Hamilton’s first GP podium for Ferrari. Nobody outside the top three on the grid has won.

Norris Fav

Norris is the 1.52 favourite, which is too short for this track. Leclerc is 6.00 and Hamilton 17.00. There is only one of those that offers good value, and that is Lewis Hamilton. Starting third is a great place to be, as the last five races here have shown.

The McLaren is the better car but running in clear air is worth a lot and if Hamilton can get in front, preferably with Leclerc between him and Norris, he could do it. The odds are good enough for a small each way bet.

2025 Mexico GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point e/w Lewis Hamilton to win @ 15.00 with Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Betfair

George Russell is in the mix for a podium but the Mercedes has been just a bit slower than the Ferraris so far this weekend. The driver starting fourth has scored six podium finishes since 2015 and Russell has picked up eight podiums already in 2025. His odds of 3.25 are a touch generous given his strike rate (and the record of starting fourth here).

2025 Mexico GP Raceday Tip: 1 point George Russell to finish on the podium @ 3.25 generally available

Just creeping into Q3 yesterday was Ollie Bearman. He qualified tenth but will start in ninth place thanks to Carlos Sainz’ penalty. Bearman has finished in the points in the last two races and in three of the last five. He has been good at converting his top ten starts into points and was quite bullish about the car’s long run pace on Friday.

2025 Mexico GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Ollie Bearman to finish in the points @ 2.10 with Boylesports

Group Betting

Nico Hulkenberg has been in decent form lately in qualifying but has struggled in the races. The team felt that they executed qualifying as well as they could yesterday. Alonso has had a tough weekend and only qualified in fourteenth place with his teammate in nineteenth. Alonso said that is where they are on this track.

Liam Lawson made a mess of Q2 and starts fifteenth. The car is better than that but with overtaking difficult here, he has ruined his weekend. Esteban Ocon starts in eleventh place and he blamed missing out on Q3 to getting into the dirty air of two cars in front at the wrong time. Bearman made it into Q3 and both drivers were happy with the pace of the car. Out of that bunch, Ocon was the most positive about his car and the potential to improve on his position.

Ocon starts ahead of Hulkenberg, Alonso and Lawson which is a big advantage on a track on which passing is difficult. Lawson might have a faster car but starts four places back from Ocon. I will take Ocon to be able to keep his position at the front of this group.

2025 Mexico GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Esteban Ocon to win Group 3 @ 3.00 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt