2025 Brazil GP Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Brazil GP outright betting preview. We nicked a small profit in Mexico, hopefully we can do even better this weekend.

2025 Brazil GP

Just four more race weekends to go and it is now Lando Norris who leads the Drivers’ Championship by one point from Oscar Piastri, and Max Verstappen by thirty-six points. This is a Sprint Race weekend, so there are extra points up for grabs. Norris is now the 1.80 favourite to win the Drivers’ Championship, Piastri 3.50 and Verstappen 4.50.

The Mexican GP provided us with a small 2.72 point profit, taking the season to date tally to -0.41 points. Onwards and upwards.

The 2025 Brazil GP Track

This weekend it is the Sao Paulo GP, once again taking place at the Autódromo José Carlos Pace in Interlagos, São Paulo. One of the classic Formula 1 tracks and in its current layout has played host to what was then the Brazilian Grand Prix since 1990.

It has three distinct sectors. The start is on an upslope and the cars quickly head into the Senna S, a downhill, left, right, left combination, before a long, downhill straight, into a fast curve onto another short straight (and DRS zone). This then leads into the slow, twisty second sector with eight of the track’s fifteen corners. Finally, the cars exit the second sector and into a very long, flat out uphill DRS sector back to the start finish line. It only takes around 70 seconds in qualifying trim.

Compromise Setup

The layout requires a compromise setup. The slow second sector demands high downforce to manage the slow turns effectively, but the rest of the track demands good straight-line speed so the engineers need to find a happy medium.

A higher downforce setup gives a good lap time as most of the time is spent in the slow sector, but that means being slower on the fast sectors and that makes for a bad race setup.

The rear tyres take bit of a beating in the medium to high-speed corners and that should play to McLaren’s strengths, in the dry. The improvements Red Bull have made to improve their car means that Verstappen will be on the pace and any McLaren advantage will be small. I would say that a clean air advantage will be the deciding factor. He who leads, holds the aces.

With this being a sprint race weekend, the teams only have the one free practice session to find their best setup for sprint qualifying and the sprint race. The teams are then allowed to change setups for the GP qualifying/race.

However, with this being a long-standing venue, the teams have plenty of old data to draw upon and they should have a good idea of what they want to do from the start of the weekend.

The Weather Forecast

This race has seen some dramatic races thanks to heavy rain, not least last year. That saw Max Verstappen winning the race from seventeenth place on the grid. It turned into a lottery as various drivers crashed out causing multiple safety cars and a red flag.

There is rain in the forecast for this weekend but it is forecast to fall mostly in the mornings, leaving it mostly cloudy, but dry for the afternoons. Friday afternoon’s sprint qualifying now has a 55% chance of rain, up from 25% earlier in the week.

Saturday’s Sprint race has a higher chance of rain at 65%, but the GP qualifying and race look set to be largely dry, overcast and around 26 degrees with a 25% chance of rain. The forecasts have been fairly consistent in saying that any afternoon rain should be light.

Saturday’s Sprint race looks like the wettest session. That favours Verstappen who has pulled of some impressive wet weather drives here.

2025 Brazil GP: Team-by-Team

McLaren 

What was a 34-point lead for Piastri after the Netherlands GP is now a 1-point deficit. It is, of course, still a three-way battle for the Championship, but within McLaren, the momentum has swung the way of Norris.

The difference in the two drivers’ performances in Mexico was stark. Norris qualified in pole position and drove off to win by the biggest race winning margin for two years. Piastri qualified in eighth (started seventh thanks to Sainz’ penalty) and finished a very distant fifth.

Norris is said to have found a better setup which is giving him a better feel for the front of the car, something that he has been comfortable with for some time.

Slow Piastri

Piastri has simply been slow. From fourteen podiums in the first sixteen races, his last four results have been DNF/4/5/5. His lack of pace in the last two races he put down to low grip surfaces not suiting his driving style, so back on a higher grip track, he should be back to ‘normal’. If not, then his title aspirations are toast.

He was awful in Baku and slower than Norris in Singapore, so I am not sure I am buying the track specific thing. It could be that he is feeling the pressure of being in his first World Championship scrap, and in just his third season.

No GP Wins Here

Neither driver has won a GP here. Norris did win the sprint race last year, but he was gifted the win by Piastri in order to help with Norris’ World Championship hopes at the time. Norris was second in 2023 (in both the sprint and GP) but he was a loser in last year’s lottery, getting his race ruined by having made a pitstop shortly before the red flag.

Those that had not stopped could then put on new tyres under the red flag with absolutely no time penalty for stopping. The car was quick, but it was just an unfortunate circumstance and the silly red flag rules. Yes, Norris was rubbish after the restart, but he was already screwed. Piastri has qualified 10th and 8th here for his previous GPs and never improved on his starting position.

Norris will be felling more confident right now. He has turned around a big deficit to get his nose in front. His performance was strong, very strong, in Mexico and if he has found a more comfortable setup, he should go well here. It is a track he hasn’t won at, but he hasn’t had the best of luck at times, it must be said.

Ferrari 

In second place in the Constructors’, despite not having won a race in 2025. They are just one point ahead of Mercedes, and ten points ahead of Red Bull. The team have just had the one win here in the turbo hybrid era, back in 2017.

Charles Leclerc’s best finish here is a 4th place in 2022 and their last podium was with Sainz the same year. Hamilton has won three times here, with a further four podiums, but he has never really dominated his teammates and it isn’t a particularly strong track for him.

The car’s performance has been very in and out all season but with Red Bull and McLaren expected to go well here, their wait for a race win in 2025 may have to go on.

Mercedes 

Russell won here for Mercedes in 2022 in a 1-2 race result for Mercedes. That was his first GP win so he has positive mental associations with the track. That said, his win, and 4th place last year, are the only times he has scored points in Brazil.

Russell won the 2022 Sprint race here and he led last year’s race after jumping Norris off the line. He led up to lap 28 before stopping for new inters and quickly lost the lead to Norris. The red flag was then thrown and the drivers behind them who had not pitted, got a huge advantage.

Mercedes dominated in the early days of the turbo hybrid era but it has been a bit of a struggle more recently. They will be in the top 6 mix again. They have now had a twelve-race run with at least a top 6 finish.

Red Bull 

Verstappen has only failed to finish in the top two once in the last six GP races here. His recent form sees six consecutive podium finishes, so it would be a big surprise if he doesn’t finish on the podium this weekend, in both the sprint and GP.

Any rain should enhance his chances and as the forecast stands at the minute, the Sprint race looks the most likely to give him the conditions he needs to get an edge.

With just ten points separating Red Bull from second place in the Constructors’, Yuki Tsunoda needs to start bringing a bit more to the party. He has scored in three of the last six GPs and he was seventh in the US GP Sprint race. Tsunoda has finished ninth and seventh in the last two GPs here and a hattrick looks more than possible.

Williams 

Thirty-nine points ahead of the Red Bulls, Williams are safe enough in fifth place, but they have drawn a blank in the last two races and were flattered by the attrition rate in the US GP sprint race.

Carlos Sainz is showing much improved qualifying pace but they struggle to get everything together in the races. Albon hasn’t scored in a GP for four races now and the team say that they will be trying to help him with a more forgiving setup this weekend. Williams are just very hard to trust right now.

Sainz has had two podiums and two sixth places here in the last four races, but that was not in a Willams, while Albon has never finished better than fourteenth in Sao Paulo. The team have not scored a point here in the last six races. Not a great record.

Racing Bulls 

Their great run of scoring points in five consecutive races between Spa and Baku has ended and they are pointless in the last three. Hadjar is qualifying well on the whole, with six Q3s from the last eight qualifying sessions. However, he ended up in the points just three times. Lawson has just one points finish from his last six GPs. Lawson finished ninth here on debut last year, but that was a mad race.

Aston Martin 

Endured a tough weekend in Mexico but that is not a good track for them. Before that, they had been ticking over quite nicely. Between the two drivers they had picked up seven top seven finishes from ten races. Alonso has been doing the majority of the scoring as he is just so much better in qualifying.

Alonso has scored in six of his last nine races here, and in eight of his last twelve races this season. Sao Paulo has been a reasonably good track for the team in its various guises and only twice in the turbo-hybrid era have they failed to score. Last year was one of them. Stroll crashed on his way to the start last year, which didn’t help.

Haas 

After Bearman’s remarkable 4th place finish in Mexico, Haas are up to eighth place in the Constructors’ Championship, and every place is worth millions of $. Ocon came in ninth and they are now just seven points behind Aston Martin.

The competition between these teams is intense. Just 12 points separate Racing Bulls in sixth and Sauber in ninth. There are tens of millions in prize money at stake. Haas are the only ones who have brough any significant updates to recent races and it shows. Eighteen points in the last three races is worth much gold.

Swinging Momentum

The midfield teams have all had their runs in the points. It swings one way and then another. In recent races Haas have upped their game, Racing Bulls have lost their mojo, Aston have faltered and Sauber have been in, out and are now nudging back in again.

It is very unlike Haas to be finishing a season so strongly, they usually score early and get out-developed, but this year they have played some aces late in the game. Haas could be the midfield team having their good run for a few races, but the team have not scored here in the last five years.

Ocon knows his way round the track with four consecutive points finishes, and he was 2nd for Alpine last year. Twelve months is a long time in Formula 1.

Sauber 

Have scored points in the last two races but they are not in same sort of form they were in for the run from the Spanish to Hungarian GPs. They have taken advantage of underperformances from the Racing Bulls and Williams.

This will be Bortoleto’s first home race in F1 and that can be a huge distraction. The team say that they are going to try and shield him from too many calls on his time out of the car, but that is easier said than done.

Hulkenberg has been doing better in qualifying in the last four races. He hasn’t made Q3 but has been getting close enough to be in range of a points finish, but the fact is that he has scored points in just one of the last eight GPs. Bortoleto has four points finishes in the same period. The Brazilian has been struggling in qualifying, failing to get out of Q3 in the last four races.

Alpine 

Finished second and third here last year, the big lottery winners along with Verstappen. They had their worse race of the season in Mexico and it was all a bit embarrassing. I get the impression that they just want this season to end and start again next year, with Mercedes power.

2025 Brazil GP: Summary

The Sau Paulo/Brazil GPs are rarely dull, but we can’t expect a repeat of last year’s lottery, at least I hope not. We have a very close World Championship unfolding and it would be a shame if it were to be influenced by another silly race, even it was entertaining.

The weather forecast does have rain in it, but it looks more likely to play a part in the Sprint part of the weekend. That may hand Verstappen the advantage and the chance to win his third Sprint race of the season. He goes well here and the revised car will be quick.

Max might still need the rain, as the McLaren should be quick here. In a dry race with rear tyres so important, McLaren might have better race pace, but in a wet sprint you have to fancy Verstappen. Even in a dry sprint, he would be very competitive as tyre wear would not be a big issue.

2025 Brazil GP Tip: 1 point Max Verstappen to win the Sprint Race @ 2.63 with Boylesports

Staying with the Red Bulls, Yuki Tsunoda has now got all the new updates on his car and while he remains a very ordinary driver, he has a decent car, an above average car, and he should be looking at a top 10 finish. I wouldn’t really trust him in a wet race, but hopefully Sunday afternoon will be dry.

2025 Brazil GP Tip: 1 point Yuki Tsunoda to finish in the points (Grand Prix) @ 2.25 generally available

I may not entirely trust Tsunoda in a wet Sprint race, but for whatever reason, he has gone well in the Sprint races, finishing top 7 in three of the four in 2025. He got lucky at the start in Texas, but took his chance well, and he started in the pit lane in Miami and finished 7th (promoted to 6th after a penalty for Verstappen).

It was a wet- drying track and Tsunoda jumped up the order by being the first to switch to slick tyres. He is available at 3.00 for a top 8 finish in Saturday’s Sprint race, which looks a tad generous.

2025 Brazil GP Tip: 1 point Yuki Tsunoda to finish in the top 8 (Sprint Race) @ 3.00 with Betfair, BET365, Hills, Skybet

That will do for now. It is a very busy weekend and there will be more opportunities along the way. There will updates for Sprint Qualifying, Sprint Race, GP Qualifying and the actual Grand Prix on Sunday.

-JamesPunt