2025 Abu Dhabi GP Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Abu Dhabi GP Betting preview. We had a profitable weekend in Qatar, hopefully we can finish the season in similar style.

2025 Abu Dhabi GP

It was a good weekend in Qatar betting wise. A 5.25 profit taking the season to date tally to -1.89 points. Hulkenberg’s crash with Gasly killed off the bet for him to finish in the points, which was a shame.

One more race to go to try and get over the line in the black, after such a dreadful start to the season. We have 3 points on Lando Norris to win the Drivers’ Championship at 2.75 and we also had a point on Bortoleto to beat Hulkenberg and that has lost already. The other ante-post bet was a point on Norris to win more than ten GPs at 10.50. As he has only won seven, that can’t win, but with eight 2nd places, maybe we can feel a bit hard done by with that one.

2025 Abu Dhabi GP: The Track

This is another modern, purpose built F1 facility, designed to show off Abu Dhabi as a tourist destination. It will never go down as a classic track but it has the money to pay the hosting fees to hold the final race of the year, and hope that the season goes down to the wire, as it has in 2025, and all eyes will be on the Yas Marina circuit.

It was first opened in 2009, but for the purposes of this preview I will be looking at the form since the start of the turbo hybrid era in 2014.

The track layout features a 1.2 km straight and two other significant straights, two of which are DRS zones. There are a lot of short, slow corners and a couple of heavy breaking zones to encourage overtaking, something that we didn’t see at Qatar. Three straights with technical sections in between is a fair summation.

Medium Grip

The grip level is rated as medium. It seems that Piastri needs tracks with plenty of grip to help him get the most from his tyres. Qatar was one of them, but I am not sure if Abu Dhabi’s track surface will give as much help as he got last weekend. It isn’t low grip, but neither is it high grip.

This is a very ‘medium’ sort of track. Braking is rated above average, as is track evolution. It is regarded as a rear limited track, with the rear tyres tending to overheat. Keeping their rear tyres cooler than the other teams was McLaren’s party trick earlier in the season. It doesn’t seem to hold that big advantage anymore, but it should be a positive to some degree.

Qatar was all about fast corners and these cars just can’t follow each other in fast corners. The DRS zone was too short so it was difficult even to overtake in the heavy braking zone at the end of the straight. It really isn’t a good racetrack. Abu Dhabi is better.

Qualifying Crucial

People may be thinking of tuning in on Sunday to see how the longest season in F1 plays out, but it is likely the race will be decided on Saturday. This track has massively favoured the driver who qualifies fastest on Saturday. The pole sitter has won the last ten races here and in 2014 it was the driver starting second.

Mercedes dominated in the early part of the turbo hybrid era. They won six consecutive races from 2014 to 2019. It was then Red Bull’s turn to dominate with four consecutive wins from 2020 to 2023. Last year the race was won by Lando Norris, which was enough to get McLaren over the line in the Constructors’ Championship. At least he has experience of racing here, for a Championship title.

It was an easy win but made much easier after Verstappen crashed into Piastri at the first corner. Verstappen was given a 10 second penalty and could do no better than finishing sixth, with Piastri tenth. Oh, what Norris would give for a replay of that start on Sunday.

2025 Abu Dhabi GP: The Weather

Qualifying takes place at 6.00pm local time and the race at 5.00pm. It is another floodlit race, but more a dusk race with the sun setting as the race starts. The weather will be dry and warm, much as we had last weekend.

This weekend’s FP1 is another Rookie Driver session, where some teams will give their nominated rookies their mandated second run out of the season. Oscar Piastri will be replaced by Pat O’Ward at McLaren. That is bound to get the conspiracy theorists foaming at the mouth, but these things were planned some time ago. Alpine, Aston Martin, Haas, Racing Bulls and Williams will also be running a rookie if FP1.

Team-by-Team

McLaren

Doing their best to lose this Drivers’ Championship. A double disqualification in Vegas, followed up by a strategic blunder in Qatar has let Verstappen right into the frame, which he never should have been. It seems like the team’s unwillingness to favour one driver lead to them making the wrong call in Qatar.

We had the unusual situation in Qatar that Pirelli put a limit of 25 laps on any set of tyres. That meant a two-stop race. Everyone knew that the seventh lap was the first opportunity to pit and still be able to make just two stops.

Hulkenberg’s crash happened on lap seven and everyone, bar the two McLarens and Haas’ Esteban Ocon pitted. That meant the time lost for a pit stop, even with double stacking and a very congested pit lane was a lot less than making one under normal racing conditions. It was the proverbial no brainer. Yes, McLaren’s position at the start of the pit lane made it more difficult to carry out a quick stop, but it would have better than staying out.

Twelve Point Cushion

Now they go into the final race of the season with Norris still leading the Championship by twelve points from Verstappen in second place, and by sixteen points to Piastri in third place. Norris will win the Drivers’ Championship if he can finish the race in third place or better. He has managed that in seventeen of the twenty-three races so far.

Norris remains the 1.34 favourite to win the Championship, Verstappen 4.00 and Piastri 15.00.

It will be close. The momentum is with Verstappen, who has nothing to lose. Norris may never get a better chance to be World Champion and he will be as tight as a drum, as will everyone at McLaren. This is like putting on a comfy pair of shoes for Verstappen and Red Bull, but the two McLaren drivers, their mechanics and strategists will be the ones under pressure.

Their car should be good around the track, but so will be the Red Bull. It could all be decided on Saturday. Qualifying is important here.

Norris Strong In Qaulifying

Since F1 returned after the summer break, Lando Norris has been the best qualifier, with an average position of 2.55. He has scored three pole positions and four second places. Only in Azerbaijan and Singapore did he struggle, with seventh and fifth respectively.

Verstappen has also scored three poles and two other front rows. His average position is 3.77, distorted by his weekend in Sao Paulo when he qualified sixteenth. Norris is 5-4 up in the qualifying H2Hs vs. Max in the same period. Piastri has manged two poles, no other front rows with an average of 4.44.

Norris qualified on pole here last year, 0.209s ahead of Piastri. Verstappen was back in fifth. Verstappen was on pole in 2023 and Piastri out qualified Norris but finished one place behind.

Mercedes 

Thirty three points ahead of Red Bull in the Constructors’ Championship. Just beating Tsunoda will clinch the deal for them even if Verstappen wins the race. Russell has finished 5/3/5 here for Mercedes. The team haven’t had a podium finish here since 2021.

Antonelli has been getting the upper hand in the latter part of the season for Mercedes, beating Russell in three of the last four races, but Russell is still the better qualifier which should help him get one back on Antonelli.

Ferrari 

Another horror show for Ferrari in Qatar. Leclerc manged to finish eighth but he was flattered by Hadjar’s late race problem. They were blaming the very high front tyre pressure for the debacle. They are running out of excuses.

Leclerc has finished on the podium here for the last three years and I expect him to be more competitive this weekend. Hamilton? His problems are worse. If he can qualify nearer the top ten then maybe he can get his fifth eighth place in seven races, but he is in a huff and not really trying.

Williams 

Cemented their fifth place in the Constructors’ Championship thanks to an unlikely third place for Carols Sainz. McLaren’s botched strategy helped him, as did a slow pit stop for Antonelli, but Sainz is now confident enough to take his chances. The team were not optimistic about their chances on a track that didn’t suit the car, but they had been working on a solution and clearly came up with something that worked, but things fell their way as well.

Sainz has found his feet and has carried the team for the last seven races, scoring 41 GP points, while Albon scored none. The Spaniard could pick up some minor points this weekend, but it is hard to fancy Albon to end his seven-race drought. The team have not scored a point here since 2017. Mind you, I expected them to struggle in Qatar and Sainz scored a podium finish.

Racing Bulls

Lawson picked up a couple of points in Qatar, thanks in part to his teammate falling down the order when his front wing end plate came lose and punctured his tyre. They ended up losing ground to Aston Martin, who are now just twelve points behind, but that is likely to be more than enough.

Aston Martin 

Lance Stroll hasn’t scored a point in the last eight races, but he is still safely in employment at Aston Martin for next season. Nepotism is not going to win Aston Martin any Constructors’ titles, even if they have bought the best talents in the sport.

If Aston are to finish what would be a pretty embarrassing 6th place in the Constructors’ Championship they likely need Alonso to finish second and also need Racing Bulls to fail to score. An even more embarrassing seventh place it is then.

Haas 

Came up dry in Qatar and now trail Aston Martin by seven points. That is doable. Haas have scored more than seven points in two of the last four races, but it is at the extreme end of what is possible, and they would need things to fall their way.

Haas’ best ever finish here was Hulkenberg’s eighth place last year, having qualified fourth, but he later got a three place grid penalty. They have never had a DNF at the track.

Sauber 

The Sauber name will be making its last appearance in F1 as it transforms into Audi from 2026 onwards. It was never a very successful team and their record here is testament to that. They last scored points in in 2018, but maybe they end that record this weekend.

Hulkenberg has had some decent results here and they have scored in four of the last five races in 2025. Hulkenberg was running in the points when he had a 50/50 crash with Gasly in Qatar last weekend. His average qualifying position in the last six races is 11.10 which puts him in a decent position to pick up a point or two.

2025 Abu Dhabi GP: Summary

From our point of view, it is of more interest as to where Lando Norris finishes this race. Top three and he is World Champion, regardless of what Verstappen or Piastri do. If he can qualify in the top three, that really improves his chances and he has done that seventeen times in 2025. He has also finished top three in seventeen of the twenty-five races in 2025.

Verstappen has had the best results since F1 returned after the summer break, with an average finishing position of 1.67, with Norris at 2.87 and Piastri 3.57. That is a fair reflection of their form going into this race.

Verstappen doesn’t need to win the race, depending on where Norris is, but it is much simpler for him to just think, win the race and see what happens. He can do nothing else. He can’t even risk crashing into Norris, and vice versa.

Just Win

Piastri is in the same boat as Verstappen, just win it and see what happens, but he needs a more convoluted set of circumstances to arise. Piastri has not won in the last eight races, so it would be against the form, much more so than Verstappen or Norris.

All three would love to rock up, get pole and win the race, but only Norris can really think that he doesn’t have to. That might complicate things. It is easier to just have one thought in your head, and that goes for the strategists.

Verstappen has got four race wins and two other podium finishes here. His Red Bull is currently at least a match for the McLaren, arguably a bit better. The team have not got off to the best of starts in recent weekends. It has taken them until race day to really sort the car out, but this is a normal weekend with three practice sessions to get the best set up before the all-important qualifying session.

McLaren may hold an advantage in terms of rear tyre thermal degradation, but the best thing to overcome that, is to lead the race, and that backs up the fact that the last ten winners here started from pole.

Hard To Split

It is hard to split Verstappen and Norris. Norris has been very good in recent qualifying sessions. Three poles and two second places in the last five GPs. He was on pole here last year and won the race.

Verstappen has been on pole here in four of the last five years and won those four. He only qualified fifth last year (started fourth after Hulkenberg got a penalty) and Norris’ pole lap was very good in a very tight session, getting it by just over 0.20s. Verstappen has been out qualified by Norris in the last four GP qualifying sessions. Norris is 5-1 with Piastri in the last five GP qualifying sessions.

The worry for Norris is that since the summer break, Verstappen is 7-2 in race H2Hs with Norris. He has been able to overcome starting behind Norris and finish ahead. On this track, that might be harder, but Norris doesn’t have to beat Verstappen.

Norris might be well advised to let Verstappen lead and win the race. Ironically, Verstappen can do less damage to Norris’ race if he is in front of him. If he was right behind him, he could try and induce a mistake, maybe a little bump or a wheel bang, just to try and knock him back a place or two.

Gift The Lead

I can see Norris getting pole here, and from there, he should continue the trend of pole sitters winning. But, if circumstances allow, and he would need a bit of a spread field to be safe, Norris can gift the lead to Max, drop back a bit and ensure a top three finish.

If Max gets pole, I don’t expect Norris to bother him. Piastri would be a different story, but Piastri does seem to need everything to be just right for him to be at his best. I think this track will be OK for him, but Qatar was just about perfect, so he may be a little off his pace of last week.

I will come back to look at qualifying on Saturday, but for now, the logical option seems to be to back Verstappen to win the race.

2025 Abu Dhabi GP Tip: 1 point Max Verstappen to win the Abu Dhabi GP @ 2.38 generally available

Points Finish

It is one last hurrah for Sauber and they will want to sign off with a good result, and they could get one. Last year, Sauber had one points finish all season. Zhou had finished 8th in the penultimate race in Qatar. Their number one driver, Valtteri Bottas came into the last race pointless. In qualifying, he made Q3 and ended up ninth, his and the team’s only Q3 of the year.

It all went tits up in the race when Bottas hit Perez at the start for which he received a penalty. It got worse when Bottas crashed into Magnussen (also in his last F1 race) and retired. We never got to find out if the Sauber could have ended with back-to-back points finishes.

Tough Start

This year the team, after a dreadful start to the season, started scoring points regularly from the Spanish GP onwards. Sauber have had eleven points scoring races from the last fifteen and in four of the last five. Would Hulkenberg have made that five from five without his tangle with Gasly last weekend? I think so.

Hulkenberg has five top 10 finishes here from his eight races in the turbo hybrid era, including an eighth-place last year having qualified fourth for Haas. He received a three-place grid penalty for overtaking on the pit lane exit.

With his qualifying performances much improved in the last eight races, Hulkenberg is putting himself in the frame for points pretty much every time. Last week he just missed out on Q3 by 0.003s.

2025 Abu Dhabi GP Tip: 1 point Nico Hulkenberg to finish in the points @ 3.00 generally available

I backed the same two bets last week and was a bit lucky that one won, and a bit unlucky that one lost. I will stick with those two wagers for now and see what crops up for Saturday’s qualifying and the race on Sunday.

-JamesPunt