2026 UK Open Outright Betting Preview

This is going to be a hectic week for James Punt and first up, it’s the UK Open. The tournament doesn’t start until Friday but with the Premier League and F1 also to come this week, James has decided to get started early. Check out his 2026 UK Open outright betting preview below.

2026 UK Open Preview

The 2026 UK Open will take place from the 6th to 8th of March at the Butlin’s Resort in Minehead, England. It will be the 24th staging of the UK Open. The winner will receive £120,000 from a total prize fund of £750,000.

It is known as the FA Cup of Darts due to the size of the field and the fact that the players are not seeded. A draw is made on a round-by-round basis.

The tournament’s 160-player field will consist of all 128 PDC Tour Card holders, the top 8 players from the 2025 editions of the PDC Challenge Tour and PDC Development Tour, and 16 amateur qualifiers. Players will enter the tournament incrementally based on their PDC Order of Merit ranking, with an open draw conducted for each round.

Surprises Likely

The idea is that it makes it more likely to throw up a few surprises and is less likely to have a final featuring the top two players in the world, which is the idea with seeded events. The reality doesn’t quite live up to its promise, but in the last ten years we have seen a few big priced winners.

Nathan Aspinall was 126.00 when he won in 2019 (and tipped up by yours truly). Danny Noppert was something of a surprise in 2022 and Andrew Gilding was 151.00 when he won in 2023. Van den Bergh wouldn’t have been on too many punters radar in 2024, but he hadn’t completely lost his form back then.

Previous Winners

In the last ten years only MVG has won more than one UK Open title (x2), and the other winners have been Peter Wright, Gary Anderson, James Wade and last year, who else but Luke Littler.

In the same period the runners up list has been a who’s who of darting royalty, such as Gerwyn Price, Luke Humphries, MVG, Michael Smith, Rob Cross, James Wade and Peter Wright. Perhaps only Corey Cadby (remember him?) bucked the trend, but he was the bright young thing that year and briefly had the darting world at his feet.

Some firms bet e/w a quarter the odds the top four in this event and you are more likely to see some surprises making the semi-finals, but again, the big guns tend to get there more often.

Recent big outsiders reaching the payout zone have included Alan Norris, Robert Owen, Dave Pallet, Keane Barry, Willy O’Connor and Ricky Evans. But we have also have had Price making two, Gurney two, Clayton two, along with MVG, Smith, Rock and Taylor.

Pattern

Looking at the world rankings of the beaten semi-finalists and finalists in the last ten years, there is something of a pattern.

Of the winners, six were ranked in the top 6 of the PDC OOM. Eight were ranked in the top 20. Of the ten runners up, six were in the top 5 and eight in the top 16. Of the twenty losing semi-finalists, fourteen were in the top 16. That suggests that we need to be concentrating on the top twenty ranked players, with special attention to the top 6 when looking for the finalists

It is worth considering less fancied players that are in good form, and hope they get lucky with the draw, but the cream is likely to rise to the top.

With a field of 160 players having to be whittled down to the winner in just three days, the tournament is a bit of a blur until we get to the fifth round.

Four Rounds On Friday

The first four rounds are all played on Friday. No less than 128 matches are played on the first day of the competition. The top 32 ranked players do not enter until round four, and the 33rd to 64th in round three. The lowest ranked players and the amateurs come in in round 1&2.

There are multiple boards in use and it is very much like a Players Championship floor event until we get to the latter stages. There are two TV stages, but PDCtv started to cover the other boards in recent years. You only need about eight screens and four heads to keep up. Friday is quite exhausting to watch, but we should get some value betting opportunities at some stage during the day.

The first three rounds are played in a best of eleven leg format, but when the big boys join in at the fourth-round stage it becomes best of nineteen legs.

I think this where the PDC have missed a trick. The longer format removes some of the jeopardy for the top players and we would likely get a few more shocks if the top players had to come in ‘cold’ and play a first to six leg match. It is best of nineteen legs until the semi-finals and final, which are both best of twenty one legs.

Tough Betting Heat

The sheer size of the field and the fact we have multiple boards in operation means this is a very hard tournament tipping wise. It is also hard for the bookies to price matches up. There isn’t much time between the end of one round, and the start of the next.

We can’t expect to get the normal full range of side markets as a result. The fact that the competition also clashes with the Australian GP makes things more difficult, but we’ll try our best to find some value throughout the weekend.

2026 UK Open: The Likely Lads – The Top Twenty

This has had to be written before Thursday’s Premier League matches, so those players’ most recent form can’t be included.

Luke Littler 

The defending champion and he is looking to do what has not been done since 2016 and that is to defend the title. That was MVG, and Littler is the 3.80 favourite to repeat the feat.

Littler has had some struggles in the Premier League but that is against the elite players in a short format. By the time the top 32 players join in this tournament, the matches are best of 19 legs and that does help the better players. Littler has won nine of the last twelve ranking Majors and been runner up in another. As such, his odds are generous, despite the Open format.

Yes, he may get drawn against some of the top players at any stage, but there won’t be any players in the tournament who he hasn’t beaten before. The only players in the tournament who have a winning H2H record against Littler are Wessel Nijman, James Beeton, and errrr, that’s it.

Luke Humphries 

Winner of seven ranking Majors and runner up in seven others. He has been hitting the post more than he used to. Humphries has won just one of the last ten ranking Majors but been runner up in four. This was his first ever Major final back in 2021 and he made the 2024 final as well but he is yet to win it.

Gian Van Veen 

The only player not called Luke to win one of the last twelve ranking Majors. He is the third best player in the world right now and playing at a very high level. Van Veen was a quarter finalist here last year and he can go deep again.

Michael van Gerwen 

Trying to get back to the big time after a difficult 2025 season. He was runner up in the World Championship at the start of the year but only made a further ranking Major semi-final.

MVG has not won a ranking Major since 2022 but his form in 2026 has been better. His win rate is back up at 78% and while it is early days, it is a marked improvement from his 55% win rate in 2025. Van Gerwen has won this three times and was runner up once, in 2023.

Jonny Clayton 

Has won two ranking Major titles and he had a good 2025, reaching one final and three more semi-finals. The Ferret is enjoying being back in the Premier League and he is the World number five. However, he is lacking the same sort of consistency of the very top players. Clayton has reached the semi-final here twice in the last six years and has reached the last 16 stage for the last six years.

Stephen Bunting 

Reached the semi-final here in 2015, but since then he has won just eight matches from ten visits. Not a very happy hunting ground for the Bullet. He has not fared well in the Players Championship Finals, which are also held here.

Bunting has been out in round 1 or 2 eight times in that. Maybe he just hates Butlin’s? He has played some very good stuff in 2025 but 57% of his matches in 2026 have seen sub 90 averages. That lack of consistency will get him found out at some stage.

Gary Anderson 

Won this in 2018. That was the year of the big freeze and no spectators as there was no water supply available in the venue. He was runner up here in 2010 but outside of those finals it has been slim pickings. Anderson has lost his opening match in three of the last five years.

The Flying Scotsman hasn’t made a ranking Major final since 2021, but he did get close in the World Championship this year. Part of his problem is that he is virtually part-time these days. He has played just 15 matches since the World Championship semi-finals and his win rate is a modest 59%.

James Wade 

A three-time winner of the UK Open and he was last year’s runner up. He won it in 2021 and was a quarter finalist in 2022. Wade has reached at least a semi-final of a ranking Major for the last eight years, so he is a Major player.

His 2026 win rate is 75%, but since winning PC1 a month ago he has played just ten matches and won six. He lost his last three in a row and won just one leg in his last two. It is very hard to say where his form is right now.

Josh Rock 

Really struggling in the Premier League, losing his first four matches, all 2-6. His seasonal win rate is just 44%. He has played some very good darts but he would like to have more consistency. Rock has played in four UK opens and his best result was to make the semi-final last year. A lot could depend on how he gets on in the PL on Thursday.

Gerwyn Price 

A win rate of 73% in 2026 and one of the form players coming into this. Price has reached the semi-final of three of the last four ranking Majors, but he hasn’t won one since 2021. Five of his last seven titles have been on the floor, one on the Euro Tour and one on the World Series.

Price is playing at a very high level, but like everyone else, he struggles against Littler. He reached at least the quarter finals here for the six years from 2017 to 2022, but has won just one match in the last three years.

The Iceman really should be having a good run, and with good draws, he could avoid Littler. Price lost both his opening matches here 9-10 for the last two years. Frustrating.

Danny Noppert 

Won his only Major title here in 2022, or rather he was gifted it by Michael Smith. Noppert just isn’t a big match player in the Majors. He has lost nine ranking Major semi-finals, four of them in 2025. Outside of winning the 2022 title, Noppert has never won more than one match in a UK Open. Another 5th round exit?

Chris Dobey 

Is a bit like Danny Noppert, only he tends to lose at the quarter final stage. Ten times in ranking Majors, as well as losing four semi-finals. Dobey is a great player but can’t win on a stage. He did win the 2023 Masters, before it was a ranked Major, but was that the exception that proves the rule?

Dobey has already won a title in 2026, on the floor obviously, and reached another final, ditto. He has also reached a Euro Tour semi-final. So, another stage semi-final defeat. It is just learned behaviour now. Dobey has played in eleven UK Opens and never got past the 6th round.

Ryan Searle 

Has won seven senior PDC titles but never won one on a stage. He was runner up in this venue for the 2021 Players Championship finals and he had his biggest payday when reaching the semi-final of this year’s World Championship.

Searle has played just fifteen matches since that big semi-final, winning nine. He is playing OK, but I can see nothing to think his lack of stage titles is going to change.

Nathan Aspinall 

The 2019 Champion and he has also reached the quarter final in 2023 and 2025, so he has plenty of positive memories to draw upon. His problem is that he is not in good form, losing five of his last ten matches. He did reach the final of PC1 a month ago but he has become inconsistent since then.

Ross Smith 

There are some encouraging signs from Smudger. He won PC5 last week, then backed it up with a quarter final in PC6 the next day. He has won eleven of his last twelve matches and he is playing with decent level of consistency.

Smith hasn’t got much of a record in ranking Majors, but did win the 2022 European Championship. He is the kind of player who can hit a hot run of form, hit a lot of 180s and be very dangerous. These short duration tournament should suit him more than the weeklong or longer formats. Smith is in with a good chance of a deep run, draw permitting.

Martin Schindler 

Schindy has won a few matches here in recent years. He was a quarter finalist in 2023, has reached another four 5th rounds and the sixth round last year. His recent form is poor, losing six of his last ten matches.

Schindler has been struggling with his line, a lot of darts drifting into the wrong bed. He had a 65.57 average in one of his recent defeats, but he did manage a 103.70 in a match last week. Hard to predict.

Jermaine Wattimena 

Not in great form. Wattimena has won six of his last ten matches but had four sub 90 averages. It is fair to say his form is unpredictable at best. He has never got beyond the sixth round from his eleven UK Opens. In PDC events, he has not strung more than two wins together since last year’s Players Championship finals in November.

Damon Heta 

Has been treading water for some time now and has lost five of his last ten matches. Heta has had some decent runs here, a semi-final in 2024 and a quarter final in 2022. His record in ranking Majors sees eight losing quarter finals and one semi-final. He isn’t playing badly but his win rate in 2026 is just 43% and he is low on confidence.

Mike de Decker 

Has played some good stuff recently but still lacks the necessary confidence to think he can have a good run. He has won six of his last ten matches and hit three ton plus averages, but also four sub 90s.

De Decker has played in eight UK Opens and failed to get beyond the fifth round. Having won the Grand Prix in 2024, De Decker had a terrible time in 2025, winning just three matches in the ranking Majors.

Rob Cross 

Now just ranked 20th, the former World Champion and winner of four ranking Majors, and runner up in five others. However, he finished 2024 as the fifth ranked player, and fell to 20th in 2025. Tax troubles clouded his mind and he is still trying to pay back a hefty sum. His recent form sees six defeats in his last ten. He is still capable of good darts but is very inconsistent and it is hard to think he can go deep this weekend.

2026 UK Open: Best Of The Rest

Wessel Nijman 

Lies second in the Players Championship OOM, thanks to winning PC2, being runner up in PC4 and a quarter finalist in PC1. He was a quarter finalist in ET1 and his win rate in 2026 is a whopping 83%. He has the firepower to compete with the elite players.

The downside for Nijman is that, while he lacks a lot of experiences in the Majors, what he does have is poor. I think it was just three matches won in the Majors in 2025, and he was out in round two at Ally Pally and the first round in the World Masters.

It will happen for him at some point, but as for now, there has to be a question mark over his stage/TV form.

Kevin Doets 

Another up-and-coming Dutchman, Doets has won seven of his last ten matches and is playing with decent consistency. He has played in six UK Open, reaching the fifth round twice. He enters at the third round stage, which means one more chance to lose. Doets could have a good run with the right draw and he will be worth considering for match betting.

Andrew Gilding 

Goldfinger won this in 2023 and was a semi-finalist way back in 2015. He has reached three other Major quarter finals and when he is in good form, he can have good runs.

Gilding has won seven of his last ten matches and was runner up in PC6 last week. I should point out that while he did play some decent stuff, he just got a draw that opened up for him and he wasn’t shooting the lights out.

His consistency is lacking, but some players find him a very awkward opponent and he could have a sneaky run.

2026 UK Open Selections

As ever with these Major championships, we have to consider the two Lukes. Littler makes some appeal at his odds of 3.80. Nine titles from the last twelve ranking Majors. His recent form is not his best, but he has decided to only play in the PL and on non-German Euro Tours for now and he has been playing against very good opponents. His only real problem is that he is losing the crowds at the PL.

The crowds you get at these events in Minehead are more like proper darts fans, rather than the ‘good night out’ casuals at the PL. The players get more respect here. He is playing just fine outside of the PL and I am a little surprised to see him as big as 3.80.

Open Draw

Yes, the nature of an open draw could mean he gets tough matches, but not necessarily, and in any case, he would be odds on to beat anyone in the field.

The player ranked World number 1 has won three of the last ten UK Opens and been runner up in one. Littler has to be considered in the same bracket as Taylor and MVG and both of those players successfully defended their title once, as did Raymond van Barneveld.

MVG was denied the chance for a hat-trick when he had to withdraw from the tournament in 2017, due to injury. It is a hard one to defend, but the best can do it.

2026 UK Open Tip: 2 points Luke Littler to win @ 3.80 with Unibet

Who of the rest of the top six in the rankings is worth a poke? Luke Humphries can be backed a 9.00 with e/w 1-2, or 8.00 at 1/4 the odds 1-4). He has been runner up in two of the last four UK Opens and he is playing great.

However, he is struggling to go all the way. He did win PC4 a couple of weeks ago, but as of the 3rd of March, he hadn’t won a PL night. He lost his Euro Tour semi-final, lost the final of the World Masters, lost two World Series quarter finals and the World Championship quarter finals. Cool Hand struggles with Littler, and now also Van Veen.

Resurgent MVG Worth A Look

MVG is playing better in 2026. He has won three of the last eleven UK Opens and was runner up in another. His win rate in 2026 is 78%. He missed out on a PL night and a Euro Tour through illness, but he should be over that now.

Mighty Mike is not as good as Littler right now but he has beaten him in three of their last five matches. He has also beaten Luke Humphries in three of their last five matches. MVG is as big as 21.00 with the books going just the first two e/w. He will believe that he can still win big titles and his game is heading in the right direction.

2026 UK Open Tip: 0.5 point e/w Michael van Gerwen @ 17.00 with Ladbrokes, Betfred (e/w 1-4 1/4 the odds)

Jonny Clayton has reached the semi-finals here twice in the last six years. In that time, he has played twenty two matches here and won sixteen, so he likes the event. He is back in the PL again and reached a Major final and three other semi-finals in 2025.

The Ferret may not have the consistency of the likes of Littler and Humphries, but he is a Major Champion and PL Champion for a reason.

2026 UK Open Tip: 0.5 point e/w Jonny Clayton @ 26.00 with Ladbrokes (e/w 1-4 1/4 the odds)

I have concentrated on the players in the top 6 with some positive Minehead memories and that are playing well enough to be considered. Van Veen can be considered, but his odds are just 12.00, which is about right. Stephen Bunting isn’t one for me in Majors and his record here isn’t great.

Outside of the top 6 players there is one player who I will back just because he has hit some very good form, and you can’t beat a bit of good form. Ross Smith has won a Major, but I wouldn’t call him a Major specialist.

He has won a title in 2026, and he will be very happy that his form has returned after a difficult time on and off the oche. Smudger has won eleven of his last twelve and if he gets his eye in on the treble 20, and he has been hitting more of them recently, he can give anyone a game.

2026 UK Open Tip: 0.5 point e/w Ross Smith @ 41.00 with Ladbrokes, Betfred (e/w 1-4 1/4 the odds)

There will be fairly regular updates for match betting through the weekend, but I won’t necessarily be able to cover it round by round, and certainly not match by match.

-JamesPunt