2026 Australian GP Qualifying Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2026 Australian GP Qualifying preview. If you haven’t already seen James Punt’s fantastic season preview, you can read it here.

2026 Australian GP Qualifying

The first two practice sessions didn’t produce any great surprises, nor many great pointers.

Mileage was important as the teams gather more data and that is very important as everyone is starting from scratch with the new regulations.

The losers in terms of mileage were Aston Martin with just 34 laps completed between the two drivers and both sessions. Compare that with Ferrari’s 125 and you get the drift.

Lando Norris only got 7 laps in FP1 after he suffered a gearbox problem, but he did get in 29 in FP2.

The two Cadillacs were having problems. Bottas got a total of 52 laps completed, but Perez only 16. Slow and unreliable, but we were not expecting much from the newbies.

Pace

In terms of pace, the picture remains as clear as soup. “It is only testing” was the cry in Bahrain, and “it is only free practice” was the motto for Friday in Melbourne. The two Ferraris were 1st and 2nd in FP1, followed by the two Red Bulls in 2nd and 3rd. Linblad broke the symmetry in 5th place for Racing Bulls, with Piastri 6th for McLaren. The two Mercedes were 7th and 8th.

In FP2, it was Piastri fastest from the two Mercedes in 2nd and 3rd. The Ferraris were 4th and 5th, Verstappen was 6th, Norris in 7th and the eye catching Linblad in 8th. The top ten was rounded out by Hadjar in 9th and Ocon in 10th.

What the Drivers Said

Sometimes you can learn more by listening to what the drivers said rather than looking at the time sheets.

Charles Leclerc, rather than saying how happy he was with the Ferrari, was quick to say they was very worried about the pace of Mercedes.  I though the Ferrari looked good, but Leclerc said they were ‘on the back foot’, and Mercedes appeared to be ‘a bit more in front than I would have wanted’. He went on the say Mercedes looked ‘very, very strong’.  He was referring to the Mercedes long run pace and said that he didn’t think that the silver cars had shown their true one lap pace.

As far as his car was concerned, Leclerc said that they had made some changes for FP2 and they didn’t work, so he will be going back to his FP1 set up. He summed things up by saying that qualifying could be very close, but Mercedes’ long run pace set them apart.

Niggly Problems

Mercedes said that they had some little niggly problems in FP1 but things went better in FP2 and they were able to set good long run times. It wasn’t an ideal day, but Mercedes look set to be stronger for the rest of the weekend.

Red Bull were OK, but there were only 13 laps for Verstappen in FP2. He had an off-track moment which damaged the car, but his session was derailed when he pitted and his Red Bull stopped in the pit lane because of an electronic control box issue. It just stopped, while in gear, and it took the team a while before they could re-set the electronics and send him out late in the session.

It would appear that, going into day two, the battle for pole is between, Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren. Red Bull appear to be a little off that group, but they have always been a very good and set up improvements from Friday Practice to Saturdays qualifying. I wouldn’t rule Verstappen out of the mix.

2026 Australian GP Qualifying Selections

It is less than ideal to be placing bets on qualifying, before seeing FP3. There will be a lot of work going on overnight to optimise set-ups and work out a plan for energy harvesting and deployment for a qualifying lap.

It seems everyone agrees that Mercedes’ long run pace was the best, but they hadn’t quite dialled it in for a flier.  Can they translate their long pace into better one lap pace?

The Mercedes has always been touted as the best package, all through testing, and today underlined that.

Ferrari have a quick car and Charles Leclerc is always one to watch in qualifying. Will that still be the case in these very different cars?

The McLaren’s are talking themselves down. It wasn’t a good day for Norris and he is a bit on the back foot. Could Piastri send the Aussie crowd into raptures? Or can Red Bull tweak their car and give Verstappen what he needs to get pole?

The Odds

Russell is the 3.50 favourite, Leclerc 4.50, Verstappen 6.00, Piastri 9.00, Antonelli 9.00 (9.50 win only), Hamilton 9.00 (9.50 win only), Norris 12.00, Hadjar 67.00 and name your price for anyone else.

I am going to have a small interest on Kimi Antonelli. Yes, Russell was the better driver in 2025 and that is reflected in the odds. The fact is that they are both in what is supposed to be the fastest car, and one that may not have shown us what they really have when push comes to shove. There is logic in backing the car that the rest of the field says is the class of the field. With e/w betting down to third place, there is enough value in Antonelli’s odds for an interest.

2026 Australian GP Qualifying Tip: 0.5 point e/w Kimi Antonelli to be the fastest qualifier @ 9.00 with Boylesports, Paddy Power, Skybet

Side Markets

Unibet have come up with four qualifying groups. I will take a chance on Group 3, with Linblad to out qualify his teammate and both Haas drivers, Bearman and Ocon.

The British/Swede was very impressive in the Racing Bull, ending the two sessions 5th and 8th respectively. His teammate was 13th in both and the two Haas were 10th and 11th in FP2. There is the chance that Racing Bulls were running him light, to boost his confidence, or he could just be very quick. He was the youngest F3 and F2 champion in history, which suggests the latter.

2026 Australian GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Arvid Linblad to win Group 3 @ 3.30 with Unibet

There was very poor reliability for Perez at Cadillac. He got just 16 laps in across the two sessions. He is a driver who is returning to F1 after a year out. A year out playing with his kids. B

ottas spent his year ‘out’ as a reserve driver for Mercedes. He was working in F1, doing simulator work and so on.  He is ‘match fit’ while Perez his finding his feet in a new team, in a very different car and with not a lot of car time.

2026 Australian GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Valtteri Bottas to out qualify Sergio Perez @ 1.67 with Unibet

-JamesPunt