2026 Australian GP Raceday Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2026 Australian GP Raceday preview. James landed the place part of his e/w bet on Kimi Antonelli in qualifying, hopefully we can go one place better in the main event.

2026 Australian GP Raceday

It was a frustrating qualifying session. It was a very small profit on Antonelli for pole, but after he crashed late in FP3 it was a mad rush just to get his car repaired in time for qualifying. The mechanics got it going, but there was no time to get it set up to Antonelli’s preferences.

Our bet on Linblad to win his qualifying group was winning all the way to the very last lap of qualifying. His car was sent out on used tyres and the energy deployment developed a fault. That allowed his teammate to pip him at the post. That was the only time Lawson had been faster all weekend. It was much the same with Bottas. Quicker than Perez in every session until the last lap of Q1. That was a -1.70 loss for the session.

Russell On Pole

Our ante post bet on George Russell to win the race at 3.25 is looking very healthy as he starts from pole and he is now just 1.33. It was a Mercedes front row lock out and it appears that their opponents were in fact right about Mercedes holding something back in testing and free practice. Isack Hadjar was the fastest non-Mercedes driver and was a shade under 0.8 seconds slower than Russell.

The race isn’t won yet. Charles Leclerc will be flying off the starting grid from 4th place and do not be surprised to see him going for the lead by the first corner.

There are still some reliability concerns with these new power units and they are harder to drive. You will see more mistakes made and this track can bite, as we saw with Antonelli’s big smash in FP3.

Mercedes Pace

That said, the Mercedes’ race pace was very strong and it is easy to understand why Russell is such a short price. A lot is being made about the Mercedes power units giving them a big advantage, but the customer teams were out qualified by a Ferrari and a Red Bull. That tells us that the Mercedes is a good package. Just keep it on the road and hope it doesn’t break down.

Hadjar was the next best in the Red Bull. Verstappen didn’t get to set a time after his Red Bull spat him off the track and into a wall. We saw the same thing happen to Lance Stroll in testing and these new power units do seem to have some strange traits. Hadjar is unlikely to be able to keep Leclerc behind him at the start. Verstappen is aiming for 6th or 7th but admits he doesn’t really know how difficult overtaking will be.

Leclerc Fourth

Leclerc ended up fourth, and that is about right on a track that wasn’t going to be easy for their package. It is the second-best car, but they could be the team to beat on slower circuits. Lewis Hamilton had been second fastest in two of the practice sessions and fourth in the other. For him to end up seventh in qualifying is a worry. He really struggled in qualifying last year and he can’t afford to be giving up so many places. The car looked strong on the medium tyres, but couldn’t live with the Mercedes on the softs.

Leclerc has to be fancied to finish on the podium, given the cars prodigious pace off the line.  Hamilton will also make up places at the start and a top six finish in likely, but he is just 1.62 to do so.

McLaren

The McLarens ended up 5th and 6th. Piastri has been the quicker of the two so far this weekend. Norris missed most of FP1 with a car problem, and in qualifying he hit some on track debris which damaged his front wing. He believed he had the pace the be third without it. Piastri, for his part, said that being fifth was about where he thought he should be.

The team thought that they were not getting as much out of the power unit as they should be. That may be down to the fact that this is the first time they have been using the latest spec of the Mercedes unit. They have some more work to do to optimise it, but I don’t see that happening this weekend.

Racing Bulls Best of Rest

Outside of the ‘big four’, it is Racing Bulls who head the midfield pack. Linblad has been very impressive so far and was only let down by a deployment problem on his final qualifying lap. Lawson said that he had been struggling all weekend but managed to string a good lap together at the death. He really didn’t look like top 10 material up to that point.

After the Racing Bulls we have the two Audis. We have a small bet on Hulkenberg to finish in the points at 4.00. He is now 2.00 to do so. Fingers crossed with that one, and I do hope he doesn’t finish 11th. This is a track that was likely to suit them and they need to score points if and when they have the chance. The race start is likely to be painful. Their big turbo is a liability off the line, but a  strength on the faster sections of the track. 

Haas Set For Points?

The two Haas cars start 12th and 13th and it will be interesting to see how many places they can make up at the start. The Ferrari power unit gives them a big advantage at the start and I can see them moving straight into the points scoring places. Then it is a matter of staying there. They have been around the 10th place mark in practice and they should breeze passed the Audi’s at the start. If they can stay reliable, points are possible.

It will be very interesting to see how the fast-starting Haas stack up against the slow starting, but faster on the straights, Audis over a race distance.

Alpine have been disappointing all weekend and it is hard to see point scoring potential for them. The same goes for Williams, who have been slow and unreliable. Sainz has borne the brunt of the problems, but the car has been slow all weekend.

Alonso managed to drag the Aston Martin to seventeenth place, but that was helped by no time being set by Verstappen and Sainz. The Astons are very unlikely to be able to finish the race. Lance Stroll has been given permission to start, even though he took no part in qualifying.

The Cadillacs will be bring up the rear in terms of pace.

2026 Australian GP Raceday Selections

I think we still need to tread cautiously. These new power units are complicated things and not entirely reliable. It easier to make mistakes in these cars. They are down on downforce and have a tendency to lock up under braking. There are places on this track that can be race ending if you leave the track. I would expect the attrition rate to be higher than we would have expected in years gone by.

We are on Russell for the race already and there is no need to re-visit that market.

I do fancy Leclerc for a podium. The car has good pace on the harder tyres, and they tyre degradation was reported as being very good in testing.

2026 Australian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to finish on the podium @ 2.00 with Ladbrokes

Sticking on the same fast starting theme, the Haas drivers have to be considered  for a points finish. They couldn’t be behind cars that are as likely to be slow off the line as the Audis.  So long as they can keep away from contact, they should be in the top ten off the line. Then, it is about staying reliable and holding off the Audis who will be faster on some parts of the track. It will be an interesting battle to watch.

You can get 7.00 for a double points finish, or back them individually as a safer option. With attrition expected to be high, the latter may be the wiser choice. I am going to take a third way, and back Bearman to be ‘best of the rest’ at a sporting price.

2026 Australian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Esteban Ocon to finish in the points @ 2.80 with Betfair

2026 Australian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Oliver Bearman to be best of the rest @ 6.00 with Livscorebet

The final bet is another on Ferrari. Hamilton had the habit last year, of qualifying poorly but making up places in the races. With his super-fast starting Ferrari, that is likely to be happening a lot again in 2026. Hamilton has been faster than Norris in all the sessions this weekend, except qualifying. If he can get ahead at the start, he should have the beating of Norris.

2026 Australian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lewis Hamilton to beat Lando Norris @ 1.72 with Ladbrokes

Back next weekend for the Chinese GP.

-JamesPunt