2026 Chinese GP Betting Preview & Tips – JP
2026 Chinese GP Betting Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2026 Chinese GP betting preview. Hopefully we can build on last week’s promising start.
2026 Chinese GP
It was a good start for the 2026 season with +5.27 points bagged for the first race of the season. Winning was nice, but it was more about learning about what the pecking order may be and what kind of racing are we going to get for the season ahead.
The first thing to say is that it is increasingly unlikely that we are going to get a 24-race season. The Bahrain GP is scheduled for 10th -12th April and the Saudi Arabian GP the following weekend.
A decision will have to be made in the next week or so as the lead times for logistics are long. There are still no flights into Bahrain, and no flights means no race. Jeddah is open for business and it may well be that will go ahead, but we shall have to wait and see, but both are odds against to go ahead.
What did we learn from the first race weekend?
The new cars are different, and difficult to drive, but it is not the end of Formula 1 as we know it. It is for the ‘bring back V10’ brigade, but F1 died a long time ago for those old farts.
Drivers are making more mistakes, a bit like the old days. The cars’ reliability is not as good as last year, a bit like the old days, but there are still winners and losers and some of the racing was good. For the first race under such major regulation changes, it was hardly a disaster.
It should be remembered that the Albert Park circuit is not typical of most other tracks. It is very low on the kind of braking events needed to recharge the battery units and as a result, the drivers were having to throttle down at the end of the long straights to allow for the batteries to harvest energy.
Albert Park is said to be in the top 3 tracks for the degree of difficulty for energy management. On tracks with more corners that require more braking, the cars can recharge the batteries more regularly and not have to ‘lift and charge’ on straights.
Those ‘fans’ who are throwing themselves off tall buildings at the slight of cars slowing down at the end of the straights, really should give it a few more races before passing judgement.
2026 Chinese GP: Who is Hot and who is Not?
Again, it should be remembered that as it is a bit of an outlier track, Albert Park is not the best form guide for what lies ahead. That said, it was the first chance to see the cars in battle, and we can draw some qualified conclusions.
It was not a surprise to see Mercedes dominate the weekend. They have the best package and can be regarded as the Gold Standard. It wasn’t a perfect display. Antonelli had a big crash in FP3 and could easily have missed qualifying, but for some heroic work by his mechanics. Both cars arrived at the start line with flat batteries (they were not alone) and lost ground off the line, but once they got going, they had the race pace to dominate the race.
Next Best
Ferrari were next best, which again was no surprise. They were also like rocket ships off the start line, but it proved harder to pass other cars with a full grid of cars vying for space. Hamilton made a flying start but found himself boxed in and he wasn’t able to take advantage of his speed. Albert Park was not expected to suit the Ferrari and that they gave Mercedes something to think about is a positive for them.
Red Bull were harder to call. Verstappen had a big off in FP2, a dramatic car failure in Q1, and didn’t set a time. He had to start from the back, and just as he predicted, he was able to finish 6th, despite complaining of battery deployment problems.
His teammate, Isack Hadjar, qualified a very encouraging third. His race didn’t last long enough to judge their race pace. Hadjar’s power unit broke on lap 10 and he was a DNF.
It is hard to say where Verstappen would have been able to finish, had he started from third place. He recovered to finish 6th, but wasn’t able to get past Lando Norris in the latter stages. Still some question marks hang over Red Bull regarding reliability and pace.
Ground To Make Up
McLaren looked to be behind Mercedes and Ferrari, and by a bigger margin than expected. We never got to see what Piastri could have done, as he crashed out on the way to the grid. Norris had a quiet race, started 6th and finished 5th, but he was a whopping 51.74 seconds behind Russell in first. Norris only made up the place caused by Hadjar’s DNF.
As for now, McLaren look to be close to, but behind Red Bull, and well behind Mercedes and Ferrari. McLaren are not happy with Mercedes only giving them the latest spec PU and associated software after testing was completed. They were much slower on the straights and were not able to use the power unit as effectively as Mercedes. I guess, having won back-to-back Constructors championships, McLaren had forgotten that they are just a customer team.
Then we get to the midfield. I suspect that the midfield pecking order will be fluid. It is close between a number of teams.
Mid Pack
Racing Bulls were good in qualifying, getting both cars into Q3, despite a bit of a car problem for Lindblad. Lawson got bogged down at the start and his race was ruined from there. Lindblad, who had been in the top 10 in every session, finished in 8th.
It was a very good weekend for the rookie. He was prepared to get stuck in and race, without being overambitious. He made Lawson look second best. Pace wise, he was lapped by the leaders, as was everyone up to 6th place.
Haas were behind Racing Bulls in practice and qualifying, but they had the better race pace and Bearman was able to get past Lindblad to finish as ‘best of the rest’ and land our 6.00 bet. Ocon could only manage to finish 11th, missing out on our bet for him to finish in the top 10, by a small margin.
Blame Game
Ocon was blaming his car. Saying it was like the two drivers had different cars. We shall have to watch Haas to see if they have a slow in qualifying, quick in the race kind of car, again. Bearman was unable to cash in on the Haas’ Ferrari power units party trick of a flying start. He didn’t make up any places off the line, but he was able to make up a lot of places in the race.
With a full complement of cars on the grid, it is harder to cash in on their fast starting mini turbo, than just doing a practice start. But the fast-starting advantage is there. He just needs to learn to thread the needle.
Audi scored points on their debut. Bortoleto qualified 10th and finished 9th. We had a small bet on Hulkenberg to finish in the points, but car problems meant he didn’t even get to start the race. Bortoleto made Q3 but didn’t run due to a car problem. But the car was decent, albeit on a track that played to their perceived strengths. Reliability was a not great.
Slow Alpine
Alpine had looked pretty slow in practice and that was the case in qualifying, ending up 14th and 16th. Gasly made up four places to grab the last point on offer. I can’t say they looked impressive and Gasly was helped by Hulkenberg not starting the races, ditto Piastri, and the DNF for Hadjar. Not a great start, despite getting a point.
Alpine say that they have a design problem with the front wing. It is struggling in fast corners and they hope to have a fix for the third race.
Williams were expected to struggle and they did. Carlos Sainz was not able to take part in FP3 or qualifying with car problems. Albon was never better than 15th in practice and qualifying. He finished 12th, but was flattered by better cars’ demise.
The car remains overweight. The team have set themselves a three-race target to get to the weight limit, but the rumour mill has the car being very overweight, and the project to take much longer to fix. It could actually be quite good, if and when they get rid of the excess weight, but missing so much track time with Sainz in Melbourne means less data was collected.
The cost cap is making things difficult. Redesigning lighter parts costs money and they have to compromise between shedding performance sapping weight, with the need for effective performance upgrades. It is all a bit of a mess.
Test Session
Aston Martin at least got some running in the Melbourne race. The whole weekend was a test session but the car is still not able to race properly due to the Honda power unit’s problems. It is hard to see that changing any time soon, certainly not for this coming weekend.
No doubt they will hope to be able to do a proper race in Japan, but that is only two weeks away. If nothing else, they will want to have built up a reserve of more spare parts in time for the home race.
Cadillac were as slow as expected and the car had a tendency to have bits fall off it, be those are just the growing pains of a new team. At least Perez was able to complete the race and that was their only objective.
Power Unit Politics
McLaren, along with all of the Mercedes’ customer teams, were very confused as to why they couldn’t get the same performance from their power units. The answer may have something to do with the fact that they only got the latest spec units just before practice. Mercedes have been designing these new units for years, and they know how to get the most out of them.
The customers have to be supplied with the same specification of power units, and software, as Mercedes have got, but Mercedes do not have to tell them how to get the most out of them. Customers will have to work that out for themselves, and they will, in time. Mercedes can look after their own interests by leaving their customers to take time to unlock the potential of the power unit.
McLaren in particular are unhappy. They say that Mercedes are not playing the game, but that is exactly what they are doing. Mercedes have complied with the regulations. Supplying their customers with the latest spec units AFTER testing is not against the rules, even if it is just not cricket old boy.
Advantage Mercedes
McLaren have beaten Mercedes while using a Mercedes power unit for the last couple of years. Now with brand-new regulations and brand-new power units, Mercedes are seeking an advantage. If McLaren, Alpine and Williams want to have a perfect knowledge of how to get the most out of the power units and software, then they might want to build their own. Customer teams are just that. Works teams have advantages and this is one of them.
The conspiracy theorists are saying that Mercedes then turned their PUs down for the race. Having a 0.8 second led over the next best was too much. If they carried that through to the race, they could have won by a huge margin. Why would they not want to win by a huge margin?
This is to make sure that their rivals cannot take advantage of the ADUO (Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities). After the first six races, teams that are 103% or more slower than the winning car, can apply for the right to do remedial work and development on the units, in order to catch up.
Mercedes don’t want that, so there may be some truth in it. The teams can’t change the car’s set up after qualifying, but I guess they can change the PU settings/modes in the car quite legally. For now, at least.
2026 Chinese GP: What to Expect?
Air pollution and some chaos. This is a Sprint race weekend. Not my favourite thing. The Sprint weekends were introduced to give the teams less time to practice and the idea was that would ‘mix things up a bit’.
I am not sure if anyone likes them. The drivers certainly don’t. They are not ‘real’ races. The drivers are aware that they have qualifying for the actual GP shortly after the Sprint, so they rarely give it the full beans. They are looking after the car, and trying to pick up a few points, but the real business is still done on Sunday.
This year’s Chinese Sprint race will be extra difficult. We have had just one race weekend with these new cars and it was clearly a steep learning curve for the drivers, even after all the testing.
For this weekend, there will have been no time for the drivers to fly home and work on the simulator. They will arrive in Shanghai, and have one hour of practice, before going into Sprint qualifying. Just one hour to find a set up on a very different track to Albert Park. Different, but easier for energy management.
The Weather Forecast
Fairly standard weather for Shanghai. ‘Hazy sunshine’ (smoggy), 15-18c degrees across the weekend with only Sunday having any chance of rain, at just 18%. It is a little warmer than average for the time of year, with the track set to be around 30-34c degrees.
2026 Chinese GP: The Track
Not a favourite of mine. The Shanghai International Circuit was purpose built for F1 and was first used in 2004. It’s designed to look like the Chinese symbol for ‘shang’, from the air, obviously. It’s a bit of a gimmicky reason for a track design.
It features a long starting straight (Ferrari will be very hard to keep from having the lead here) into the first corner complex.
Often referred to the ‘never ending corner’, it is four corners rolled into one, once through that complex, the cars enter sector two which is a mix of medium and slow corners, but there are at least four braking events that will allow for the batteries to be fully charged for the very long straight, which makes up much of sector three.
It ends with a very heavy braking event before a hairpin and a short squirt before arriving back at the start/finish straight.
I suspect that the batteries will be emptied before the end of the long sector three straight, but the rest of the track should see everything fully charged and flat out. It should be a bit more straightforward than trying to do the power management around Albert Park.
Will the Pecking Order Change?
It could do. First of all, there is the Sprint format making it easier to get the set up wrong, at least for that part of the weekend. By the GP on Sunday, everyone should be sorted and then it will be a question of which cars are best suited to the demands of this track.
It is a front limited track and it used to be a good venue for Mercedes, even before the Turbo Hybrid era. They had their first GP win in the twenty first century, with Rosberg winning in 2012.
We have had four different drivers winning the last four GPs here. Ricciardo won for Red Bull in 2018, Hamilton for Mercedes in 2019 (there were no races in 2020, 2021 and 2023), Verstappen for Red Bull in 2024 and Oscar Piastri for McLaren in 2025. Is there a chance we will see another different winner? Maybe.
Long Straights
The nature of the track is different to Albert park. There are two very long straights, but the corners are generally medium and slow. Energy management should be easier, but I am not sure about the very long straights.
I suspect that everyone will have run out of juice well before the end of the straights, but will anyone have full power for longer? Maybe Audi with their big turbo will carry a bit more speed. Maybe Ferrari will be compromised with their little turbo?
However, with more in the way of slow and medium corners here, that will suit Ferrari very nicely in those parts of the track. They have a car that will be stronger on tracks with plenty of corners and the slower the better. They should be more competitive here than in Melbourne. More competitive than Mercedes? That is the $64000 question.
Ferrari’s Funky Wing
Ferrari have said that they will be running their ‘upside down’ rear wing in FP1. Clearly, they want more data regarding its usefulness. I can see why they want to do it on a track with two long straights. If it works and brings more performance, they could use it for the Sprint, and maybe the whole weekend.
However, they have only run it for a handful of laps in preseason testing. They can’t have enough data to be sure that it works. If it is only a data gathering exercise, they are giving up very limited set up time for the Sprint qualifying and Sprint race.
I would not be surprised to see it being used for the first 30 minutes, and then the old wing goes on. Lewis Hamilton said that this new wing was not meant to come on stream until later in the season, so it looks like Ferrari are keen to bring developments to the car quickly, in order to keep in touch with Mercedes.
If it does work, and the idea is to reduce drag on the straights, than they may be tempted to run it for the weekend. It is an interesting development. This certainly is a track where it could bring real benefits.
Mercedes Package
Mercedes have the best package and should be competitive everywhere, but maybe not the best everywhere. Russell was jumped off the line, just like what happened in testing, and he had a real scrap with Leclerc up until the VSC Mercedes pitstop. Ferrari just had to concede the lead when they eventually pitted, and after that it was plain sailing. Mercedes had no problems doing a one stop strategy.
Yes, Ferrari didn’t help themselves by not pitting under either VSC, which cost them 10 seconds or so, but we have come to expect that sort of below par strategy from Ferrari.
Russell won by 15.5 seconds from Leclerc in third. Very comfortable, but 10 of those seconds were a gift from Ferrari’s strategy. That gift allowed Russell to take it easy and enjoy the clean air.
Track To Suit Ferrari
Now we move to a track which should play more to Ferrari’s strengths. The fact that we have a long drag into the first, long and slow, corner complex should allow the Red cars to take the lead, regardless of grid position (within reason). The corners should also play to Ferrari’s strengths and we could have a proper race here. Mercedes should still be favourites, but the value may lie with Ferrari.
Hamilton has won this race six times, but he hasn’t made much impression on Charles Leclerc since joining Ferrari. I would have to go with Leclerc to be Ferrari’s main man again. Yes, Hamilton won the Sprint race here last year, but that was the Mickey Mouse race.
These Sprint race weekends are a pain. Two qualifying sessions and two races, back-to-back. We really don’t need them at this stage of a new era of regulations. But that is what we have.
2026 Chinese GP Selections
I am going to pin my colours to the Ferrari flag, and that hasn’t happened very often for the last few years.
It is likely that Mercedes can still win this weekend, especially if they were ‘sandbagging’ with reduced power unit settings in Melbourne. They could still have some performance up their sleeve. They deserve to be favourites, but the value may lie with Ferrari.
The layout of the track will suit the strengths of their car. A long drag, down into a slow, multi apex corner complex is exactly want they would like at every track. That most of the corners are medium and slow is also in their wheelhouse. If the funky wing reaps drag reduction benefits down the long straights, even better. I expect them to be right in the fight.
Sprint Race
Last year, Lewis Hamilton took pole position for Ferrari and led the race all the way to the finish. The Sprint race is just 19 laps long, and the qualifying session for the GP proper is just a few hours away. There is a reluctance for drivers to get into high risk, wheel to wheel racing at this early stage. I would say that whoever leads at the start here, can win the race. There are no pitstops to mix things up, and no major strategic decisions for Ferrari to cock-up.
The question is, which Ferrari driver can deliver the better performance? Leclerc was 19-5 in their GP qualifying in 2025, but Hamiton was the faster qualifier in the Sprint and GP here in China last year. You can make an argument for both, but I have to pick Leclerc. He is a very good qualifier and was faster in Melbourne, the first qualifying session under the new regulations.
George Russell is the 2.50 favourite for the Sprint race, Leclerc 3.75, Hamilton 6.00, Antonelli 7.00, Verstappen 15.00 and Hadjar 67.00. Some interesting odds there, but remember, we are in a new era.
What is interesting is that Leclerc is as big as 7.50 to win the GP. The bookmakers are wise to the fact that the Sprint race is just that, a short race and that being in front is worth more than over a full race distance.
2026 Chinese GP Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to win the Chinese Sprint Race @ 3.75 generally available
As always with Sprint race weekends, be extra careful that you are putting your bets on the right market. This is for the Sprint Race.
Chinese GP Race Proper
I usually don’t back the same driver multiple times in the same race, but this not the same race. They are two different events on different days. Leclerc is the early pick for Sunday’s GP for the same reasons as he is the pick for the Sprint. Hopefully he can win one of them, ideally both.
It should be harder for him to win the GP. There is more chance for strategy to play a part, and that is not always Ferrari’s strong point. But we are getting better odds. I am going to be more cautious and have more money on a podium finish.
