2026 Japanese GP Betting Preview

After another Mecedes win in China, the F1 circus rolls into Suzuka, Japan. Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2026 Japanese GP betting preview, check it out below.

2026 Japanese GP – China Reflections

We have had two GPs and a Sprint race, on two quite different tracks. All three races were won by a Mercedes, all three pole positions won by a Mercedes. Do we have a winner already? Very probably.

In second place we have Ferrari 3rd and 4th in both GPs and 2nd and 3rd in the Sprint race. They are not yet able to match the Mercedes and with the power unit’s development locked in, at least for those teams not really floundering, it is hard to see how Ferrari can close the power gap.

Ferrari are working hard on improving the car’s mechanical and aerodynamic performance, but as Lewis Hamilton pointed out, it is hard to see them picking up enough performance from the car alone.

Big Gap

After the ‘big two’, there is a surprisingly big gap to Red Bull and McLaren. The Red Bull was decent in testing and showed flashes of speed in Melbourne, but the facts are that they have suffered with two DNFs, the car is ill handling and rumours are growing that it is overweight. They have scored just 12 points and are behind both McLaren and Haas.

McLaren couldn’t get either car to start at the Chinese GP. Piastri has had two DNS from the first two GPs and while they are not far off Ferrari’s race pace, they are losing out at the starts (when they can actually get them moving).

Haas are best of the rest, enjoying the qualities of the Ferrari power units and their fast getaways are enough for them to edge ahead of the likes of Alpine and Racing Bulls.

2026 Japanese GP: Team-by-Team

Mercedes 

Everything is rosy in the Mercedes garden. They remain favourites to win everything until we get to Monaco when the playing field will be a bit more level. Antonelli has closed the gap to Russell to four points. If we are to have a one team show in these early races, then we need a close battle between the two drivers for entertainment.

Ferrari 

The first thing you notice about Ferrari 2026 is that their drivers are happy. The car is quick, not quick enough to beat Mercedes yet, but they are back on the podiums, and leading races, if only for a short while. The two drivers even enjoyed racing each other in China. Going wheel to wheel but not crashing into each other (which they did in 2025). Hamilton is smiling again and that tells us a lot.

He had the better of Leclerc in China, but Leclerc did say that he doesn’t like the Shanghai circuit, and he has struggled there in the past. A happy Hamilton will be a faster Hamilton, but has he turned the tables with Leclerc? I suggest that it was more track specific than a flip flop in terms of which driver is top dog at Ferrari.

Charle Leclerc has said that the gap to Mercedes is so big right now, that they can only ‘annoy’ them for a while in the race. Yes, they can lead, yes they held Russell up for a while in China, but you can’t stop a car that is 0.5 second a lap faster. Maybe at Monaco, but not on most tracks.

There is a bit of a narrative that Ferrari are close to Mercedes, and if the races were four laps long, then yes. But they aren’t and Ferrari are racing for second best. But at least they are racing each other.

McLaren 

Not many smiles at McLaren. They have been let down by the Mercedes power units being hard to figure out, or impossible to start. The car? Third best, but China was a disaster and the team are struggling. They need a trouble-free weekend to get things pointing in the right direction again.

McLaren gathered a lot less data in China than most teams and will have less to work with. They desperately need to understand the Mercedes power units and how to operate them effectively, and the debacle in Shanghai was big setback from that point of view. McLaren are on the back foot.

The car also needs work. McLaren did say pre-season that they would not be rushing to put upgrades on the car early on. They wanted to learn what was needed and bring effective upgrades a little later, like Miami. No running in China has put a bit of a spanner in those plans, and do not expect anything new on the McLaren here.

Haas 

Not the quickest in qualifying, but the car has strong race pace. Bearman is up to 5th place in the Drivers’ Championship, while Ocon remains pointless. There was some pressure on Ocon from the team boss at the start of the season, saying that Ocon needs to up his game. So far, so bad for the Frenchman.

Haas is an American team, but partnered with another Japanese car manufacturer, Toyota. I imagine that, with Honda dying of shame at their home GP, Toyota will be looking to help Haas push the boat out this weekend.

Red Bull 

It is all going a bit Pete Tong at Red Bull. Verstappen is throwing his toys out of the pram. He hates the new regulations and the car is not competitive, nor reliable. Slow corner performance is lacking and it is overweight.

He is not used to being in a car that is not competing for race wins, and it is telling that he is pursuing other racing interests with endurance events. He won a race in Germany last weekend, driving a Mercedes, only to be disqualified for using an extra set of tyres.

Racing Bulls 

Tied with Red Bull on 12 points. Is that Racing Bulls being good, or Red Bull being poor? It is the latter for me, but Racing Bulls have a solid, decent car. Liam Lawson has upped his game somewhat and they look to have a team where both drivers can contribute.

There is a lot of unreliability in the early stages of the new regulations and by being reliable, Racing Bulls can pick up valuable points, while the likes of McLaren and Red Bull are freeing up point scoring positions.

Alpine 

The same applies to Alpine. There are point finishing positions being offered up and Gasly has been able to score points in all but the Chinese Sprint race. It is a bit early to say exactly where they stand, but with reliability being good so far, Gasly can be considered for more points this weekend. Colapinto needs attrition to be high.

Audi 

Off to a respectable start under the Audi banner, but out of the blue, they lose their Team Principal (TP). Sauber had managed to lure Jonathon Wheatley away from Red Bull to head up the team and usher in the transition from Sauber to Audi.

Wheatley was said to not be happy with life in Switzerland, which has been a longstanding problem for the Swiss based team. Personal reasons have been cited for his sudden departure, but the rumours are that he is being lined up to replace Adrian Newey as Aston Martin’s TP.

It is something of a blow to the team but shouldn’t have any immediate effect on the team’s performance, but it will require an unplanned management reshuffle. Former Ferrari boss Mattio Binotto will fulfil the TP role, for now. But like Alpine and Aston Martin, having a succession of TPs coming and going is not going to help Audi. They need to find a new TP and stick with them for a few years.

The car is doing OK, but no more than that. Two DNS from the first two GPs is not good, but they are hardly alone in that.

Williams 

Carlos Sainz was able to take advantage of the four cars that did not start, and three that did not finish, to finish ninth. That was a very flattering result and the car is not competitive.

It is overweight, and not alone in that, but there are other problems. Albon was very unhappy with the car’s reliability and lack of grip. He referred to the car ‘three wheeling’, when one of the front wheels is not in contact with the track. The car has very stiff suspension and like last year, is struggling in long duration, medium and fast corners. Not a great recipe for a track like Suzuka.

Albon also said that the car has a long list of issues that need addressing

Cadillac 

Very slow, slower even than the Aston Martin, but at least they can get a car to the finish line. Bits of the car will fall off during the journey, but it is a start.

Aston Martin 

The soap opera at Aston Martin continues. Last week they had (another) management reshuffle. Adrian Newey, completely unsuited to the role of Team Principal, has been relieved of that job and is now concentrating on the design of the car.

The expectation is that Jonathon Wheatley will be signed up to oversee the biggest shit show in F1. He would be the third bossman in the last 18 months. It is like one of those football teams who sack their manager several times a season and wonder why they are getting relegated.

It is all a fault of their own making. Lawrence Stroll may be a very successful businessman but he has made a couple of real howlers at his Formula 1 team (and that’s not counting keeping his son as a driver).

Making Mistakes

Not carrying out due diligence relating to Honda’s readiness for the new power unit regulations and making mistakes with team Principal appointments. Mike Krack was moved sideways to make way for ex-Mercedes man Andy Cowell. Cowell had hardly got himself settled into an office chair, before he was packed off the Japan to oversee the nightmare at Honda.

For some reason, Stroll thought it a good idea to have his star designer as the team principal. He alone thought it was a good idea and that Newey didn’t last long in the role was a surprise to nobody.

It is all a bit of a distraction from the real story, which is that the whole Aston Martin project has collapsed into a steaming heap. The team did manage to get both cars out on track in China and both completed the sprint race in 17th and 18th place. In the GP Lance Stroll retired after nine laps and Alonso after 32 laps. The vibrations coming from the power unit got so bad, he wasn’t able to grip the steering wheel.

State Of Chaos

They now arrive at Suzuka, Honda’s property and home race, in a state of chaos. Embarrassing. There is no quick fix. It took Honda five years to master the turbo hybrid engines and the worry is that it could take years for them to get to grips with the latest regulations.

If Aston Martin had done their homework and realised that Honda were nowhere near ready to build one of these new generation of power units, they could have stayed with Mercedes. It may have taken a year or two to really understand how to get the most out of them, but the Mercedes power unit is the gold standard.

For the 2026 Japanese GP, Fernando Alonso will be arriving late and not running in FP1. It is reported that he became a first-time dad earlier this week, so Aston Martin will be throwing rookie driver, Jack Crawford, in at the deep end for the first session. At least that will give Alonso’s hands a bit of a rest.

2026 Japanese GP: The Track

Suzuka was built as a test track for Honda. As such it features all sorts of corners and a couple of straights. It was designed to test the quality of performance cars and it is regarded as one of the best tracks in F1. But will it suit this new generation of power units? Melbourne didn’t, most of China did and Suzuka should.

China’s only weak spot was that the cars ran out of battery power down the very long straight, some sooner than others. Suzuka features two long straights (but not as long as the back straight at China), and there are enough braking events for the batteries to get topped up around the lap.

Reduced Downforce

These cars are down some 15% in terms of downforce, so they will be a bit slower in the high-speed corners at the 2026 Japanese GP. The famous esses, from turn 3 through 7, will be slower, but the rest of the lap should be full on. There are only two ‘straight modes’ on this track, where the cars automatically drop the front and rear wing angles to reduce drag, and improve overtaking chances.

The first is on the start-finish line, that is followed by turn one and two, before a short run into the esses. That should mean a car making a pass on the straight should be able make it stick. Any overtaking on the second ‘straight mode’ section, may be harder to hold on to as it is not far to the start-finish straight and a chance to get the place back.

The teams have had two weeks since the last race and there will have been a lot of work going on back at the factories, trying to improve on power management and the systems that govern that. We may well see fewer problems and maybe a change in the pecking order as some teams will have done a better job than others.

The 2026 Japanese GP Weather

Rain, and worse, is often a feature of the Suzuka weekends, but this year, it looks like we may have pleasant, mostly sunny conditions across the weekend. Day time temperatures will be around 18-20c degrees for all three days. There is an 11% chance of some rain for qualifying, but otherwise it looks like being fine and dry.

Past Form

Current form carries more weight after a big regulation change, but it is worth a look at drivers who have good records around this iconic circuit.

Since the start of the turbo hybrid era in 2014, the races here have been dominated by just two teams. Mercedes won every race between 2014 and 2019. There was a two year break for Covid and when racing returned in 2022, there were four consecutive wins for Max Verstappen and Red Bull.

Lewis Hamilton has four wins at Suzuka, with Rosberg and Bottas also scoring for Mercedes. Hamilton has beaten his teammate seven times in fourteen starts. Charles Leclerc has had one podium and four consecutive 4th places and beaten his team mate in three of his six races here.

George Russell, this weekend’s favourite, has a best finish of 5th last year, and is 3-1 vs. his teammates. Over at McLaren, Norris has had two second places and is 4-1 vs, his teammates.

Energy Management Tweaks for Qualifying

I thought the FIA would leave any tweaks until after the 2026 Japanese GP. There will be no more races for five weeks thanks to the cancellation of the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian GPs. However, on the eve of the Japanese GP, the FIA have reacted to criticism of qualifying in Melbourne and Shanghai.

The power unit manufacturers unanimously agreed (very rare) to a reduction of the maximum permitted energy recharge for Qualifying at Suzuka from 9 megajoules to 8 megajoules.

The change means drivers will harvest less energy to charge the battery on the straights in qualifying, which in turn means they will spend less time less lifting and coasting. So, we will see less of the cars slowing down before the braking zones at of the straights.

I presume that it also means the batteries will then have less charge in them and thus be slower? It will look better, sound better and may allow the drivers to go a bit more ‘flat out’ rather than having to back off in order to manage the battery power, but they will be slower.

More Criticism

There has been criticism of the systems that run these new power units. The drivers are not in control. Charles Leclerc said that he had made a small mistake in China, lifted off to correct a small slide, perfectly normal. However, the power unit’s algorithms then got confused by that small lift. That is not supposed to happen for perfect power management.

The end result is that the power unit has to do a reset, and effectively, that lap is lost. A mistake that would have cost a tenth at most last year, is now costing several tenths. In qualifying that is the lap ruined.

Of course, a solution is just for the driver to drive slower, make no mistakes, and drive to the algorithm. It’s qualifying Jim, …but not as we know it.

Banzai Lap

Qualifying is supposed to be a banzai lap (especially at Suzuka). Pushing the limits of the car, the tyres, and the drivers. Racing laps have always been different. That has been more about managing tyres, fuel and so on.

The FIA are taking what I expect to be a first step towards fixing qualifying. The racing would be harder to fix, and less urgent. Calls for more power from the ICU and less from the battery is a solution, but where do you put the extra fuel? A bigger fuel tank of course, but where do you put the bigger fuel tank? These cars are packaged to micro millimetres. There isn’t any empty space under the body work.

That sort of thing can be left to next season, as it requires the whole car to be redesigned.

What to Expect at the 2026 Japanese GP

Being a test track, and a good one, the best car tends to win, and that means Mercedes in 2026. That said, McLaren had the best car last year and disappointed here, but that was put down to them not coping well on a partly resurfaced track. That, and some poor strategy by McLaren. This year, the other 2/3rds of the track has been resurfaced, so we may have another curve ball.

Pirelli are bringing their hardest range of tyres for this weekend. Traditionally, Suzuka is hard on tyres and a two stopper, but last year, the new surface allowed a one stop strategy to work. Now with smaller, lighter cars, and a new track surface, and the hardest tyres, a one stopper once again looks likely. That might help a tyre muncher like the Red Bull to be more competitive.

Mercedes Most Likely

Mercedes have won both GPs and the Sprint in 2026 and the biggest threat to another win at the 2026 Japanese GP would appear to be a technical problem. So far, Mercedes have largely escaped issues with their power units. McLaren have been badly hit, Williams too, but Mercedes only had that issue in qualifying for Russell in China. They were able to get him back to the pits and turn it off and back on again, which did the trick. But we cannot dismiss the threat of unreliability.

George Russell doesn’t have a great record here, but he has never had a great car at his disposal. He has only lost to a teammate once. Antonelli kept Russell honest here last year, finishing directly behind him in qualifying and the race. Antonelli did lead the race at one point and set the fastest lap of the race. It could be close between the two again come Sunday.

Ferrari Next best

Ferrari haven’t won here since Michael Schumacher took the chequered flag in 2004, but they do look to be the most likely to pick up a win should Mercedes stumble. They have the ability to take the lead at the start of races, but not yet to hold on to it.

McLaren need a trouble-free weekend, nothing less will do. Having a two-week break will have helped them better understand the problems that meant neither car started in China. If they do, then Mclaren will be in a better position to push on with developments.

As it stands, they are not a mile away from Ferrari, but without the starting pace. As such, a podium looks unlikely, without attrition for the other top teams.

Miserable Max

Red Bull have a very unhappy star driver. Verstappen hates the new regulations and is in a bit of a huff. He even had a journalist thrown out of the drivers’ press conference, because of a question he asked him…..last year! Petulant man baby. Is he Donald Trump in disguise?

Testing had been promising, but the reality is that the car is unreliable, overweight, ill handing and a bit of a tyre muncher. ‘It was completely rubbish’ he said after the Chinese GP. Verstappen has recovered from being down the order to move up a lot of positions, but he clearly thinks the car is a bad one. The team have said that they expect to be more competitive at the 2026 Japanese GP, but that may not be saying much.

Attrition

It has been quite some time that we have had to factor in so much attrition into the outcome of races. We have had six ‘did not starts’ across the first two races, six did not finishes and one not classified.

That sort of shambolic situation means that there are opportunities for poor cars to score points. Did Carlos Sainz or Franco Colapinto deserve to score points in China? Absolutely not, but with seven cars out of the race, it made it possible.

It may be that the best chance to find a value winner, is to play the reliability lottery. Try and guess the unfancied cars that could luck in. Sadly, it is a bit of a lottery.

2026 Japanese GP: Selections

It is only the third race of the season, but already the betting markets are looking a bit boring, and for good reason.

Mercedes can only be opposed on the grounds of potential unreliability. They have set the gold standard for reliability for years now, and so far have a 100% finishing rate, so unreliability might be clutching at straws.

Ferrari are clearly next best. We have a battle between their two drivers for a podium place. McLaren have been 5th and 6th in the two GP qualifying sessions, and they are third best, but with no real chance for a podium on merit, at least until they bring some upgrades.

Red Bull have been disappointing. Testing made them look OK, but reality has them falling into the midfield. Verstappen can make a difference, but he is tripping up on his bottom lip. Drivers in a huff rarely perform at their best.

Even the ‘best of the rest’ market is looking less competitive than expected. Haas have great race pace, but only one driver doing a good job. Racing Bulls and Gasly at Alpine and even Audi are picking up points, but on merit? Attrition has been a big help.

The fourth division is big. Williams, Cadillac and Aston Martin vying for the wooden spoon at every race.

Race Winner

George Russell is 1.67 favourite and Kimi Antonelli 4.50. They are the two drivers who should be competing for the win. Yes, they could be struck by unreliability, but on merit, they are very hard to oppose.

Antonelli is a best price 4.33 for the firms that offer e/w betting (1/3 the odds 1-2). You would have got a payout from him in the first two races. A second place would yield a tiny profit, but you are getting a free hit at the win bet, if he finishes. He drove well here on debut last year, in what was just his third F1 race.

You could just go for a podium finish for the young Italian. The odds for that are just 1.20. Not of any interest for me.

There is just enough value for a modest e/w bet on the Italian to go back-to-back.

2026 Japanese GP Tip: 1 point e/w Kimi Antonelli to win @ 4.33 with Boylesports

Podium Betting

I’ll skip the Mercedes drivers. Leclerc is 1.91, Hamilton 2.00. Match betting odds really. At this stage of proceedings, it’s a coin toss. McLaren would need some attrition to score a podium, but at present, they look more likely to be the attrition.

Top 6 Finish

A real money pit for me last year. Didn’t get one right all season. However, in the first two races we have had two ‘interlopers’ scoring. Oli Bearman in China with his 5th place, and Gasly with his 6th. Bearman just missed out in Melbourne with a seventh place.

For the 2026 Japanese GP, Bearman is 4.50, Gasly 4.75. At least there is some meat on those bones, but realistically, we would need Red Bull and McLaren to have serious problems again. As such, the odds are only realistic. We have to expect that reliability will improve.

McLaren have worked with Mercedes to try and find out why both cars could not start in China. It is in Mercedes’ interests to find the answer, as it could affect them. Just those two cars starting the race could scupper any bets on Bearman and Gasly.

Top Ten Finish

You can consider Bearman and Gasly on merit for this market, but only at odds of 1.62 for both, which is not great.

What about their teammates? They have the same car, reliable cars. The problem is both Ocon and Colapinto are a bit rubbish. Ocon is better than Colapinto, but Colapinto did finish 10th in China, Ocon only 11th in Melbourne.

Racing Bulls have two drivers who have both scored points. Lawson and Lindblad. At least Lawson has raced here before. He raced here twice in the Japanese Super Formula in 2023, and in F1 in 2023 for Alpha Tauri, finishing 11th, and 17th for Racing Bulls last year. This is a whole different kettle of fish of course, but he did perform well in China. Lawson is 2.25, hardly great value.

Lindblad Makes Some Appeal

Lindblad was very good in Melbourne, pretty ordinary in China. He is 3.00, which makes some appeal. He is new to the track, but the car has been reliable, and he is a good driver.

Nico Hulkenberg has qualified 11th in the first two GPs (and in the Chinese Sprint race), and finished 11th in China, having not been able to take the start in Melbourne. His teammate, Bortoleto, finished 9th in Melbourne.

The Audi has some merits, reliability is not yet one of them, but Hulkenberg is knocking on the door. He could get lucky, if he can get to the finish. He has not scored a point here since 2016, but he did every year from 2012 to 2016. At odds of 4.00, I will back Nico Hulkenberg in the top 10 lottery!

2026 Japanese GP Tip: 1 point Nico Hulkenberg to finish in the top ten @ 4.00 generally available

This is going to be a race to be patient with, and that is that for ante-post bets. We may get better value as the weekend unfolds.

-JamesPunt