2026 Japanese GP Raceday Preview

James tipped up Antonelli for pole in his qualifying preview at 4.00. Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2026 Japanese GP Raceday preview, check it out below.

2026 Japanese GP Raceday

Kimi Antonelli landed our fastest qualifier bet, with some ease it must be said. He is now the 1.60 favourite for the race.

I will have a quick run through the teams ahead of the race and have a look at their prospects.

Mercedes

Four qualifying sessions in 2026 and all of them produced a 1-2 for Mercedes. Kimi was 0.3s faster than Russell, and 0.35s ahead of Piastri in third place. Mercedes have finished 1-2 in both Grand Prix, but it was only a 1-5 in the Chinese Sprint race. Their long run pace saw a bigger advantage in practice than their one lap pace. Very strong favourites.

George Russell made some setup changes for qualifying and they didn’t work. He was struggling with rear end stability and was not able to lay a glove on Antonelli. He is stuck with that setup for the race and he is on the back foot.

McLaren

Have made a decent improvement this weekend. Their understanding of the Mercedes power units is getting better and the car is performing a little better as well. Reliability is still a concern. Lando Norris has been the victim this weekend, spending a lot of time in the garage. That he split the two Ferraris wasn’t a bad result in the end. Long run pace is comfortably off that of Mercedes.

Ferrari

Split the McLarens, but only due to Norris’ woes. They are third best over one lap but their long run pace is similar to McLaren’s. Of course, their party trick is fast starts and both Leclerc and Hamilton will be looking to make up places on the first lap and then hope to hang on to them. Leclerc was over 0.6s slower than Antonelli, which is a big gap. He was 0.273s slower than Piastri but their long run pace was said to be close to McLaren’s.

Alpine

Gasly pulled a rabbit out of the hat again. He improved in every session and ended up seventh, and starts as the best of the rest, as he did in China, where he finished sixth, but he was helped by the two McLarens failing to start, and he lost out to Bearman in the best of the rest market.

The car’s long run pace was quite good and he is in a better position this weekend. Colapinto is back in 15th place and while he lucked into a top ten finish in China, he started 12th there and benefitted from attrition.

Red Bull

Max Verstappen failed to make it into Q3 at Suzuka for the first time since 2015. He says that the car is undrivable in the corners. He was outqualified by Isack Hadjar who found the car not quite as undrivable, but not by much. It is only the fifth best car this weekend, and maybe the sixth.

Hadjar will do well to hold his place. Verstappen, harder to call. He has made up a good number of places in the first two GPs. It was fourteen places in Australia and he made good progress in China before the car broke down. He is better than 11th place and the handling problems may not be so limiting at race pace. I would say that he can still be the best finisher outside of the big three teams.

Audi

I am disappointed that Hulkenberg couldn’t make it into Q3. Bortoleto did, ending up in 9th place, but Hulkenberg made a mistake in the final sector in Q3 and could only manage 13th. Hulkenberg had been 7th in FP2 and FP3 and the car has top ten pace, indeed it maybe the fourth quickest over one lap.

So far, in the two GPs of 2026, Audi have two Did Not Starts, a 10th place and an 11th place. If they can get both cars started, they should have the pace to get at least one car in the points. We are on Hulkenberg at 4.00 for a top 10 finish (now 2.75) and you never know, but I may have picked the wrong Audi.

Racing Bulls

Lindblad pulled out a very good performance in qualifying. He hasn’t had a smooth weekend but got the job done and starts tenth, which is about as high as the car could get. Lindblad started 9th in Australia and finished 6th, but was flattered by Piastri not starting and Hadjar not finishing.

The Racing Bulls’ long run pace was not good, better only than the ‘Crap Three’ of Williams, Cadillac and Aston Martin. Lawson did show good race pace in China, finishing seventh from 14th on the grid, which is where he starts today. The high attrition helped, but it was a good performance.

Haas

A disappointing weekend so far. Ocon qualified 12th, which is about his level, but Bearman went out in Q1 and starts from 18th place. The car’s pace has been all over the place this weekend, but they would have been expecting to be in around 10th place. The car has shown very good race pace in the first two races, so expect Bearman to move up the order, but all the way to the points? Is Ocon good enough to make the top 10?

Williams

Best of the worst. Starting 16th and 17th. The only surprising thing about Williams this weekend is how Albon ended up 8th in FP2.

Cadillac

Faster than Aston Martin, which is something of a victory for the fledging team.

Aston Martin

Embarrassing. It says everything that you can’t get any odds on the Aston Martin cars being Not Classified. Reaching the halfway point would be an achievement.

2026 Japanese GP Raceday Summary

It looks very good for Antonelli. He is in the fastest car. He starts from pole, and the pole sitter has won seven of the last eight races here. His teammate is driving with a bad setup, and the fast starting Ferraris are maybe too far off to be able to take the lead on lap 1. Even if they did, they don’t have the pace to beat Mercedes over a race distance.

The two threats to Antonelli are messing up the start, and unreliability. His starts are getting better, and the car has been very reliable most of the time.

We backed Antonelli ante post at 4.33, and he is now a 1.60 shot, and that may be a touch generous. Fingers crossed. There is no need to revisit the Race Winner market.

Battle For Second Best

The McLaren vs. Ferrari battle for second best is very hard to call. Their long run pace looks close but perhaps the deciding factor will be Ferrari’s fast starts.

The Suzuka track has a decent run to the first corner, which will allow the red cars to make a forward move, but it is a very narrow track. This year’s cars are smaller but there is not a lot of room to manoeuvre. Might we even see some contact?

If The Ferraris can make a move, they should be able to make it stick as there isn’t much in the way of an overtaking chance until the next lap. We haven’t seen Piastri make a GP start in 2026, but he has his work cut out to repel Leclerc, as does Norris with Hamilton.

Charles Leclerc is 1.67 to finish on the podium, which is understandable. Ferrari have had back-to-back podiums and Leclerc has had the upper hand between their two drivers this weekend.

Piastri Deserves A Break

We haven’t seen Piastri race a full distance in 2026 and it is fair to say that the McLaren has made big strides compared to the first two race weekends. If anyone deserves a break, it is Piastri. He has been top four in every session so far and was 0.273s faster than Leclerc in qualifying.

Obviously, Leclerc has that fast starting ability, but over a race distance, there is every chance that the McLaren is the faster car. I would say that the value bet is Piastri. He can be backed at 2.90 to finish on the podium but he looks better value to win Ladbrokes Group 1 at 6.00. He is grouped with Leclerc, Hamilton and Norris. That group looks like a bit of a matchup between Piastri and Leclerc.

2026 Japanese GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Oscar Piastri to win Group 1 @ 6.00 with Ladbrokes

Unibet are also offering Group betting and they have Piastri at 3.20 to win the same group, which is more realistic. The same firm have tempted me with their Group 2. That features Gasly as the 2.35 favourite, which is fair enough. He is grouped with the two Red Bulls, Verstappen 2.45 (2.75 with Ladbrokes) and Hadjar 5.00. The outsider of the group is Gabriel Bortoleto at 9.00.

I like the odds about Bortoleto. The Audi has been quick, if a bit scruffy. Stick the team’s best sectors together and they are fourth best. They should have got both cars into Q3 and arguably Bortoleto should have been higher than 9th. Gasly is the most likely winner, but there is enough value in Bortoleto’s odds for a small bet.

2026 Japanese GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point Gabriel Bortoleto to win Group 2 @ 9.00 with Unibet

2026 Japanese GP Raceday Match Betting

There is plenty tempting me. Lawson to beat Colapinto at 1.73 with Fitzdares, but their relative long run pace was enough to put me off. Bortoleto to beat Hadjar at 2.30 with Ladbrokes, but we have had a stab on Borty in the group bet.

Which leaves me with Pierre Gasly vs. Max Verstappen. Gasly is the 1.73 favourite, Verstappen 2.10.

Verstappen is giving it ‘the car is undriveable’ spiel again, and it isn’t great. That said, Hadjar did make Q3 and starts 8th. Max had been top 10 in all the practice sessions. Verstappen has made up a lot of places in the first two races and he is a track specialist. I expect that at racing pace, he will find a better rhythm. He is odds against and worth a go.

2026 Japanese GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Max Verstappen to beat Pierre Gasly @ 2.10 with Fitzdares

-JamesPunt