2026 Austrian GP Raceday Preview

We landed two nice winners in qualifying, check out James Punt’s 2026 Austrian GP Raceday preview below.

2026 Austrian GP Raceday

We ended up with a welcome +2.63 point profit in qualifying yesterday, but it was frustrating to have Gasly miss out on Q3 by 0.04 seconds. Verstappen crashing out in Q3 meant we never got to find out if he would have outqualified Leclerc, and George Russell, while landing our 5.00 pole position bet, did so with a margin of over 0.10 seconds, despite having to lift of the throttle under the yellow flag caused by Verstappen going off.

Russell’s final flying lap was awesome. He was set to be nearer 0.50 seconds clear of Leclerc in 2nd place before having to back off in the final corner.

There was some confusion, not helped by TV commentators giving false information, about what flag was being shown to Russell. A double waved in qualifying would have meant Russell’s lap would have been deleted. However, it was a single waved yellow which demands that a driver “must reduce their speed and be prepared to change direction”. Russel did. End of story. Toys back in prams please.

Race Prospects

Once again, we have a Mercedes on pole position and Russell’s fourth. Of his first three poles, Russell has only converted one into a win. He won from pole in Melbourne, retired with a battery failure in Canada and was beaten into second by Hamilton in Barcelona two weeks ago.

It was the last race in Barcelona which is of the most relevance. That was the first time we saw Ferrari’s big upgrade and improved performance. Yes, Russell was losing time due to having to race his teammate, but over a race distance, the Ferrari used a better strategy and had great race pace, to win very comfortably. Yes, there was a virtual safety car which cemented Hamilton’s advantage, and without it he wouldn’t have won by 20 seconds, but he still would have won.

The unreliability of the Mercedes is a threat for Russell, although both Mercedes have a fresh power unit, with new, modified battery packs, but it is the race pace of the Ferrari’s which is a bigger threat.

Overtaking Possible

This track does allow for overtaking and if Russell can’t get a clear lead, keeping out of the 1 second gap that triggers overtake mode, he will get passed at some point, but he might well be able to get back in front.

The ‘bring back V10’ brigade bang on about yo-yo racing under these new regulations, but this track naturally produces overtakes and re-takes. Drivers often make an overtake through turn 3, only to lose it on the run down the hill and into turn 4. On the next lap, the tables are turned. In years gone by, that was called exciting racing, this year, it is ‘fake racing’.

I would not be surprised to see this race going down to the wire. Russell’s final qualifying lap was ridiculously good. And if he has that pace in the race, then he drives off and laps the field, but I doubt it. He was struggling for most of the qualifying session, complaining about the car sliding, but whatever happened in that last lap, everything clicked. His race pace in the heat of Barcelona wasn’t the best either.

Pole Position

Now he starts from pole position, on a track that has seen only half of the pole sitters win the race since the tracks return in 2014. He also has a number of fast drivers in fast cars lined up behind him, and if they can keep close, they get the overtake mode. It could be a hard race to be leader, and that goes for whoever is leading.

Close finishes here have been the order of the day. In the last ten years only once has the winning margin exceed 6 seconds and seven races saw winning margins of under 3 seconds.

2026 Austrian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point winning margin under 5 seconds @ 1.83 with Betfred

Race Winner

We have had four different winners of the last four races here, and we could get a new name on the list. Antonelli is starting fourth and is a 3.75 shot to win his sixth race of 2026. All his wins have come from the front row and this race has only been won from 4th on the grid once since 2014.

What about one of form drivers coming into this race? Lewis Hamilton has form figures of 2/2/1 in his last three starts and now he has not only the upgraded chassis that took him to the race win in Barcelona, but the upgraded power unit which has improved straight line performance.

Experienced

His record here isn’t his best, but his tail is up for the first time in quite some time. He is also very experienced and that should count for something in a race that will require great tyre management and just general race management.

You need to avoid exceeding track limits, which could be a problem for Antonelli who has a habit of picking up warnings. You need to be smart about knowing where, and when, to try and overtake and Lewis has learned that lesson around this track.

It is a race where you can make arguments for a handful of drivers, all have threats and opportunities, but it is all about the odds, and given his recent form, Hamilton looks pretty decent value to me for an e/w bet.

2026 Austrian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point e/w Lewis Hamilton to win @ 7.00 with Betvictor, Boylesports, Fitzdares

There are a number of drivers who I am keen to keep onside. Hamilton was one, Verstappen is another, the two Racing Bulls and Gasly.

Verstappen starts from 5th in a car that will have had to have had quite a bit of work done to it after his crash yesterday. The Red Bulls brought a lot of upgrades for this race and there has to be some doubts as to whether the team have enough spare parts of the same spec. If not, penalties would be incurred.

The car wasn’t the benchmark in practice and he was short on soft tyres going into qualifying. That meant taking a gamble in Q2, sitting out the final run to save two sets for qualifying. He won that gamble by 0.04 seconds. He then blew it by crashing in Q3. Verstappen believed he was on course for P3. The team apologised to him for a loss of downforce at the rear of the car, which is a bit of a head scratcher.

More Pace

I would say the Mercedes and Ferrari have a bit more pace and Red Bull haven’t been totally sure footed this weekend. Verstappen is 4.50 to finish on the podium, which is a bit short in a very competitive market. I will have to leave him be.

The battle for best of the rest looks to be between the Racing Bulls and Gasly, which is a shame as you can argue a case for all three. However, in terms of race pace, the Alpine gets the nod. Gasly tends to make more places than the Racing Bulls, but of course, he starts two places behind Lawson (who started and finished 6th here last year), and one place behind Lindblad.

The track conditions are going to be very hot again, much like Barcelona, and it was Gasly in the Alpine who coped best out of those three drivers. He started 14th and finished 7th. Lawson held his 8th place and Lindblad made up two places to finish 9th.

Gasly has won the ‘best of the rest’ market (all drivers outside of the top four constructors) three times so far in 2026, including the last two, and while it will be very tight, I’ll take him to do it again.

2026 Austrian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Pierre Gasly to be best of the rest @ 3.25 with Livescorebet

The final bet is a group bet that might be offering up some value. I do have a tendency to back Bearman on race days as the Haas’ race pace is better than its one lap pace. It doesn’t always work out and it could be that the Haas is just losing out in the development wars.

Bearman qualified 13th yesterday and was left frustrated that while felt he had put in a ‘mega lap’ he was still miles off Q3. He is grouped with the two Audis and his teammate, Esteban Ocon. The Audis are running a lot of upgrades this weekend and Bortoleto qualified 12th, Hulkenberg 14th, so no great improvement for them. Bearman is the meat in an Audi sandwich, with Ocon back in 15th.

The Audis have been slow off the line all season and there is a decent chance for Bearman to make up the ground. It would then be a case of managing to hold it. Bortoleto went well here last year and is the 2.00 favourite, Hulkenberg 2.45. I have been backing Hulkenberg with no joy in 2026 and Audi do seem to find problems. Maybe they will have more misfortune this weekend. It may be a good value loser but I’ll for Bearman to win the group.

2026 Austrian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Oliver Bearman to win Group 4 @ 5.00 with Unibet, Fitzdares

-JamesPunt