2026 Belgian GP Qualifying Preview

James Punt has already posted his ante-post preview and tips, see those here. Check out his 2026 Belgian GP qualifying below.

2026 Belgian GP Qualifying

The three practice sessions have finished and they have left some clear impressions, and many questions.

Kimi Antonelli has dominated since FP2. Mercedes didn’t have a great initial set up in FP1. They expected the track to have more grip, but once they adapted to that, he has been untouchable. But what is going on with Russell?

George hasn’t been in the same postcode. He managed to close the gap to 0.367 seconds in FP3, but even on a long lap, that is a big chunk. I think we know who will be the fastest qualifier, and it isn’t George. Russell had fuel flow problems in FP, but even when that was sorted, he has been trailing his teammate by big margins.

Power Deployment Issues

Power deployment problems affected his car in the first half of FP3 and once that was sorted he closed the gap from over a second to 0.367s at the end of the session. I should also say that Antonelli was slower on his final run, when it should have expected that he would be faster. He may well have something more in the tank.

In the race for the other place on the front row, we have Norris and Verstappen very close, just 0.009 seconds separated them in FP3. Norris was also just ahead of Verstappen in FP2.

Norris said that the car is OK over a flying lap, but very difficult to drive and isn’t expecting much on Sunday. This is another team with one fast driver, and the other being way off. The Aussie was 0.656 slower than Norris. Poor.

Red Bull Quick

The Red Bull has looked quick. Verstappen is still moaning about the gear shifts but is still looking like a front row is on the cards. The team have reverted to the old-style wing for safety reasons.

Hadjar, our 2 point pick for the top 6, of course gets a grid penalty and will start last for the race. He was concentrating on his long runs and his job this afternoon is likely to be giving Verstappen a tow down the Kemmel straight. That is quite hard to pull off, but it might give Max a couple of tenths, and he was just 0.148 behind in FP3. But as I said, Kimi probably still has more pace in hand.

Average Ferrari

Ferrari is having another performance swing. Great in Spain, poor in Austria, good at Silverstone and now average in Belgium.

Hamilton has been faster than Leclerc, but he stuffed it into a wall in FP3 and did a lot of damage. It is now a race against time to rebuild the car and having it all set up for qualifying. It will be hard to do and the car could feel quite different to the one he crashed earlier.

Will that allow Charles to out qualify Hamilton, despite being the slower of the two? It could, but Leclerc has been slow. Nearly 0.4 seconds slower in FP3. Poor.

2026 Belgian GP Fastest Qualifier Odds

Antonelli is now the 1.50 favourite to get his 6th pole of the season.

Verstappen is 9.00 with the win only books, and 8.00 with those going e/w first and second. Max has had a tendency to be a bit quicker in qualifying than in FP3. The McLaren tends to be much the same, or a little slower.

The fact that Red Bull will call upon Hadjar to give Max a tow is a further advantage. I doubt McLaren will ask Piastri to give Norris a hand, unless Norris reciprocates, and that would take some organising.

Antonelli should justify his odds, but I will have a small play on Verstappen, just in case Red Bull can pull off the tow.

2026 Belgian GP qualifying Tip: 0.5 point e/w Max Verstappen to be the fastest qualifier @ 8.00 with Boylesports, BET365

Match Bets

I was hoping that we were going to get some nice odds on Lindblad to beat Lawson. He is 3-6 with Lawson and would usually be the outsider, but he has got an upgraded car, Lawson is in the old car. The difference was over half a second in FP3 and Lindblad is just 1.50 to win that match up with Fitzdares.

Colapinto has been quicker than Gasly all weekend. The Frenchman is struggling with the weight of my bet on him to finish in the points. Again, despite Gasly being 6-3 vs. Colapinto, it is Colapinto who is in the 1.67 favourite with Fitzdares. I was hoping for better.

There are two match bets which do look worth a punt.

Russell has been on the back foot all weekend and slower than not just his teammate, but Norris and Verstappen as well, in all three sessions. I may be putting the curse on Max by double backing him, but he does looks a bit of value.

2026 Belgian GP qualifying Tip: 1 point Verstappen to beat Russell @ 1.80 with Fitzdares

The final selection is Bortoleto to out qualify Hulkenberg. The Audis popped into the top 10 in FP3, having been lurking outside of it, as is their norm. But it was 8th for Hulkenberg and 9th for Bortoleto.

The team were not thinking that this was going to be a good track for them but Hulkenberg, in particular, made a big jump up the order. The car has a couple of small upgrades, but nothing significant. Certainly, for them to be the best of the rest is a surprise.

Bortoleto was the quicker Audi in FP1 and FP2 but 0.125s behind Hulkenberg in FP3. Their H2H record in qualifying is 5-4 to Hulkenberg, but it was Bortoleto who was quicker in the last two. It was also Bortoleto who was the faster qualifier here last year.

2026 Belgian GP qualifying Tip: 1 point Gabriel Bortoleto to beat Hulkenberg @ 1.86 with Livescorebet

-JamesPunt